Big 12 meets, develops vague expansion non-plan

[Fishy]

Mark is a very good guy and a friend.

This is just his orange-tinted view of things - experience has made our national flag-blue tinted worldview much more cynical.

 

[ZooCougar]

Mark is a very good guy and a friend.

This is just his orange-tinted view of things - experience has made our national flag-blue tinted worldview much more cynical.

Better than wearing P Colored Glasses.

 

[junglehusky]

I haven't read Thucydides but I have read Sun Tzu. When you are strong, you must appear weak. And when you are weak, you must appear strong.

On second thought, that * don't work, at least for the BE. Everybody knows we're a glorified CUSA, and then only as long as UConn and Cincy are still in the league. However the Art of War might work for the ACC, if they can maintain the appearance that UNC and UVA are super reluctant to leave they might survive. Then it comes down to whether the BXII can make a play for FSU, or if the SEC decides to add NCState and/or VT. If they hang onto UVA and UNC it could make the odds of any other team leaving decrease. Maybe.

 

[ZooCougar]

I haven't read Thucydides but I have read Sun Tzu. When you are strong, you must appear weak. And when you are weak, you must appear strong.

On second thought, that * don't work, at least for the BE. Everybody knows we're a glorified CUSA, and then only as long as UConn and Cincy are still in the league. However the Art of War might work for the ACC, if they can maintain the appearance that UNC and UVA are super reluctant to leave they might survive. Then it comes down to whether the BXII can make a play for FSU, or if the SEC decides to add NCState and/or VT. If they hang onto UVA and UNC it could make the odds of any other team leaving decrease. Maybe.

Sun Tzu said, know your enemy as you know yourself, and you shall never be defeated. That was the secret to Tranghese and Marinatto's success as least.

For your example. The best way for the ACC to survive is to make their schools seem as unappealing as possible, so that nobody would dream of poaching them.

The problem is that the ACC has no unity of effort. When all of your battalions stop being focused on the collective goal, then you will be taken apart in detail.

 

[huskymedic]

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

 

[ZooCougar]

I think Sun Tzu was far more practical than Clausewitz.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sun Tzu said, know your enemy as you know yourself, and you shall never be defeated. That was the secret to Tranghese and Marinatto's success as least.

For your example. The best way for the ACC to survive is to make their schools seem as unappealing as possible, so that nobody would dream of poaching them.

The problem is that the ACC has no unity of effort. When all of your battalions stop being focused on the collective goal, then you will be taken apart in detail.

The ACC is very unified in its effort to get more money out of ESPN, and I think they will be successful, even if it is just a few million per team. The ACC is going to be fine, and all the schools that left the Big East are going to be lapping us.

The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It is over.

 

[TexanMark]

The ACC Network is a non-starter. Still-born. And every ounce of ACC content is already sold, so they ain't getting another $10M from any source - ESPN will be a partner in the imminent SEC Network and they're not going to throw money down a rathole in those same markets with an ACC Network that really no one wants.

The money the ACC has now is the money they will have in 2020 and beyond - the Big Ten and SEC will swamp them in a couple of years and the gap will expand yearly.

That is the reality of it.

Hmmm no they own most but don't own every bit of content. The ACC Network won't be a huge moneymaker but it will still make money. They are looking at a pay per view subscription format. Even hooking up with the SEC...it is still in flux. The ACC's Ace is the belief that ESPN doesn't want the ACC to blowup...they don't want teams going to conferences less than 100% WWL.

 

[Fishy]

Hmmm no they don't own every bit of content. The ACC Network won't be a huge moneymaker but it will still make money. They are looking at a pay per view subscription format.

Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 are all sold until the mid-2020s.

And there is no Tier 4. ESPN owns all football and basketball, lock, stock and barrel - there is nothing left to the member institutions there. They have first selection rights to every single sport an ACC team plays - and you simply cannot put together anything with the remainder.

They have a look-in in five years, but that won't get them a network, not with the SEC Network lapping the region in two years. (Pay per view...come on. That's not going to make a dime for anyone.) The ACC is a small market league and where they're in larger markets, they're not influential - there's a reason ESPN isn't eager to build a network for their pet.

They're going to be at that $17-18M figure for a long time.

 

[TexanMark]

The ACC is very unified in its effort to get more money out of ESPN, and I think they will be successful, even if it is just a few million per team. The ACC is going to be fine, and all the schools that left the Big East are going to be lapping us.

The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It is over.

UConn will have to become the Boise St of the east in FB. Your main goal is to stay ahead of Cincy.

Hoops I fear might suffer some now. Who is going to be your Pitt, Cuse, GTown? Temple is nice but not really a national name. Memphis is a great hoops school but not sure Pastner can get them into the Top 15. Will it be Cincy by default?

I hope Cuse and UConn continue to play at least semi-regularly in both sports. I'm not sure how many old BE teams Boeheim wants to play? I figure GTown and SJU rank ahead of UConn due to recruiting and catering to the extended fan bases in those cities. Nova is probably 4th on the must do list.

 

[Fishy]

Calling a spade a spade, Jim Boeheim is not exactly Braveheart when it comes to scheduling.

He might play SJU at MSG, but he's not going on the road to play Nova, UConn or Gtown - it's not in his DNA. He won't even want those schools at home.

 

[TexanMark]

Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 are all sold until the mid-2020s.

And there is no Tier 4. ESPN owns all football and basketball, lock, stock and barrel - there is nothing left to the member institutions there. They have first selection rights to every single sport an ACC team plays - and you simply cannot put together anything with the remainder.

They have a look-in in five years, but that won't get them a network, not with the SEC Network lapping the region in two years. (Pay per view...come on. That's not going to make a dime for anyone.) The ACC is a small market league and where they're in larger markets, they're not influential - there's a reason ESPN isn't eager to build a network for their pet.

They're going to be at that $17-18M figure for a long time.

Dodd (yes that moron) quoted something like $19.5M now...of course that is really an average. The unknown is Notre Dame. They are discussing 6 vice 5 ND games now...that would bring a bump. But sadly ND probably would stay indy...even if it meant the ACC getting picked at by the two Big Conferences.

Another unknown is the Alliance thingie...TBD.

 

[TexanMark]

Calling a spade a spade, Jim Boeheim is not exactly Braveheart when it comes to scheduling.

He might play SJU at MSG, but he's not going on the road to play Nova, UConn or Gtown - it's not in his DNA. He won't even want those schools at home.

LOL...I know...but hear me out. One reason for playing so many games in the Dome was that hoops had to generate alot of $$$ since the BE contract sucked. With a tripling of conference $$$ he might venture out and play a couple old chums. It is in Cuse's self interest to show the flag in NYC, Philly and DC and yes even in CT.

 

[Fishy]

The renegotiation brought the media fees to around $17M. The idea that Notre Dame joining added $2-2.5M was inaccurate.

An alliance with another conference will not add any media revenue because the media rights are already sold! Whether someone hosts Texas or East Paduka State, the rights to that game already belong to ESPN. Hosting a home game against Notre Dame will not add any media revenue because - raise your hand if you know the answer - the media rights are already sold.

Might help with ticket sales if you're playing OU instead of URI, but honestly, no one in the Big 12 or ACC is going to add another hard game to their schedule - they might replace one hard game with another, but everyone will make sure they're bowl-eligible with the appropriate number of patsies.

An alliance really means that OU and Texas will play footsie with FSU, Clemson and VaTech - it's about making the big fish happy so they're less tempted to expand. The medium and small fish will be unaffected.

This is not hard - the ACC's media rights are fixed. They don't have anything left to sell. They're making decent money, but it also makes them vulnerable long-term - there is a reason why Maryland left.

And I think it might make sense for SU to play Georgetown - lots of SU grads there - but JB really, really doesn't like that sort of thing. I don't see him doing it unless you folks point a gun at his head.

 

[zls44]

And I think it might make sense for SU to play Georgetown - lots of SU grads there - but JB really, really doesn't like that sort of thing. I don't see him doing it unless you folks point a gun at his head.

Jim would just whine about the type of gun used.

------

BTW, Fishy is dead-on. Just think of this logically...there is nothing (zero, zilch, nada) for the ACC to start a network with. Nothing. They have no rights. To anything. ANNNYYYYTHIIIINNNGGGGG.

Plus, outside of the ACC echo chamber, there is no desire from anyone, anywhere, for an ACC Network. At all.

Face it- the ACC signed a terrible deal, added a few schools that made the contract fifty cents less terrible...and still has a pretty terrible deal with zero leverage.

The idea that ESPN is going to toss out sacks of cash because of a perceived threat at dissolution is insane. If it dissolves...then ESPN will just throw the money at whatever higher-revenue, far more interesting conference is the result of it. Maybe bank the savings for a re-up with NASCAR. Or the Big Ten contract that opens up soon. Or the Thursday night NFL package.

 

[zls44]

One reason for playing so many games in the Dome was that hoops had to generate alot of $ since the BE contract sucked.

Talk about the mother of all ridiculous cop-outs. What an asinine piece of logic.

Example: that crappy contract didn't stop just about every single other program of relevance from scheduling decent OOC games.

JB has been ducking challenges for decades. Great coach, but the simple reality is that he refuses to challenge himself or his team in hostile environments. He could easily do so. Nobody has ever stopped Syracuse from doing so but Syracuse.

 

[RMoore1999]

The ACC Network is a non-starter. Still-born. And every ounce of ACC content is already sold, so they ain't getting another $10M from any source - ESPN will be a partner in the imminent SEC Network and they're not going to throw money down a rathole in those same markets with an ACC Network that really no one wants.

The money the ACC has now is the money they will have in 2020 and beyond - the Big Ten and SEC will swamp them in a couple of years and the gap will expand yearly.

That is the reality of it.

And you still don't believe that more major realignment is absolutely inevitable? Only Notre Dame joining full time can save the ACC.

 

[The Funster]

The ACC is fuxxored, pure and simple. What the ACC did to the Big East will now be done to the ACC.

There simply cannot be special interests in a conference that alter the conference's long term strategy and cohesiveness. The BE had football schools, it had basketball schools and it had ND. The ACC has Tobacco Road (read basketball schools), has football schools and it now has ND. See the similarity? Toss in BC's "turf" for good measure. Even before ND, the Tobacco Road/FB split was a detriment to casting a unified vision for all the schools of the conference. Swofford's kow-towing to Tobacco Road will be his legacy, a legacy that is about to be devoured by three other conferences. Swofford capitulated rather than leading.

The B1G, SEC and Pac 12 all present a unified front. One never hears about backroom squabbling. Even the Big 12, with the Texas influence looming over it, trotted out a GOR that supposedly guarantees unity.

Swofford and the ACC deserve to go the way of the Big East. All I care about is UConn's future. Screw everyone else.

 

[upstater]

I really would love to hear the discussions between the state and ESPN. I imagine that the state does not have UConn's back on this given the antagonistic relationship between the state pols complaining about Herbst and the changes, and the anti-development mentality of the person who is a liasion between the Reps. and the school. Why would they go to bat for UConn?

I ask because I wonder what the optics are for ESPN giving more money to the ACC for adding Louisville over UConn.

 

[upstater]

There is ever more pressure outside sports on these presidents. Five factors will further cause them to make desperate gambits, the most important being the last 2:

1. Continuing cuts in state subsidies beyond the 5 straight years of cuts already. The cuts keep coming.
2. Drop in research grants and donations.
3. Tuition & fees have no more room to grow.
4. The new health care law will require huge changes inside universities. And this will be costly. People don't realize how cheap contingent faculty are. They work for $2 or $3k per class taught, and only 30% of faculty nationwide are full-timers. The new law will blow a hole through university finances, one way or another (fire them so you don't have to pay, or else hire fewer of them and give them more responsibilities and higher salaries--which will also hurt your reputation). For the last 20 years, expenditures at state schools have risen slowly, well below inflation, but the new laws are about to increase costs for faculty.
5. The NCAA and paying players $4k, the increased pressure on sports, the traveling, the wholesale watering down of the curriculum for athletes.

The noose is tightening on these presidents. Expect more rash decisions from people under extreme pressure.

 

[Waquoit]

Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 are all sold until the mid-2020s.

And there is no Tier 4.

Tier 5 - no poofters

 

[whaler11]

Can't the schools hire more part timers to get around health care reform? They need to average 30 hours before you need to offer affordable coverage or pay a penalty on them.

 

[Excalibur]

Jim would just whine about the type of gun used.

------



The idea that ESPN is going to toss out sacks of cash because of a perceived threat at dissolution is insane. If it dissolves...then ESPN will just throw the money at whatever higher-revenue, far more interesting conference is the result of it. Maybe bank the savings for a re-up with NASCAR. Or the Big Ten contract that opens up soon. Or the Thursday night NFL package.

ESPN will do whatever gets them the most money coming in with the least amount going out. We don't know if that means throwing a few dollars to save a relatively cheap ACC, or letting it die and paying out on fewer contracts.

 

[Waquoit]

For the last 20 years, expenditures at state schools have risen slowly, well below inflation,

Yet, tuitions have risen far above the inflation rate. Higher education is such a racket.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The renegotiation brought the media fees to around $17M. The idea that Notre Dame joining added $2-2.5M was inaccurate.

An alliance with another conference will not add any media revenue because the media rights are already sold! Whether someone hosts Texas or East Paduka State, the rights to that game already belong to ESPN. Hosting a home game against Notre Dame will not add any media revenue because - raise your hand if you know the answer - the media rights are already sold.

Might help with ticket sales if you're playing OU instead of URI, but honestly, no one in the Big 12 or ACC is going to add another hard game to their schedule - they might replace one hard game with another, but everyone will make sure they're bowl-eligible with the appropriate number of patsies.

An alliance really means that OU and Texas will play footsie with FSU, Clemson and VaTech - it's about making the big fish happy so they're less tempted to expand. The medium and small fish will be unaffected.

This is not hard - the ACC's media rights are fixed. They don't have anything left to sell. They're making decent money, but it also makes them vulnerable long-term - there is a reason why Maryland left.

And I think it might make sense for SU to play Georgetown - lots of SU grads there - but JB really, really doesn't like that sort of thing. I don't see him doing it unless you folks point a gun at his head.

That's why I like my suggestion. Both leagues are vulnerable. The ACC thanks to a weak contract, and loss of the DC market and the B12 because it really only has TX, OKC and KC as markets, and is surrounded on all sides by stronger conferences.

So the answer is for the 10 southern ACC teams, UNC, NCST, Duke, WF, GT, FSU, Miami, Clemson, UVA and VT to join the ten B1g schools, as part of a deal with Fox that renegotiates rights. Let the ACC fold, along with it's crappy contract. Now, with two 10 team divisions, play as a ten team league and just have a championship game at the end. You retain your round robin schedule and UT is happy. Everybody stays with their local rivals.

The four castoff's slink back to the Big East, which regains some status, and becomes the 5th best conference.