What happened to holy cross east? I thought you said they were a dark horse? Good work keeping them off the updated list.
Unc & UVA are locks. So the list for 2-4 seats is:
mizzu
kansas
nd
uconn
duke
gtech
fsu
I thnk the B1G most wanted targets are UNC and UVA. However, I dont think UNC will go to the B1G. After talking with a very good friend who has lived in Virginia his whole life and graduated from UVA undergrad and med school he knows some people in high standing at UVA. He also comes from a very wealthy family that has had multiple family members attend Duke.
He told me he has talked to people at UVA who are involved with decision making. As everyone knows not every at MD or Rutgers knew about the B1G decision so its extremely likely my friend doesnt know someone with inside info. He did say however the BOTs at UVA are not completely for moving to the B1G and there is a split. He said they are not sure they want to position themselves with a northern conference that doesn't exude the culture and connection that the southern schools offer UVA. He did say it is definitely an option but had no idea what way they would go if offered an invite.
He then said UNC is a whole different story. He emphatically said close to zero chance they would go to the B1G. Said politically UNC and Duke are connected and the politicians will not allow UNC to go anywhere without Duke coming along. Then he said UNC is even more anti B1G and the north than UVA. They see themselves as the southern Jewel of all the southern state schools. They do not want to align themselves with a nothern conference and have lose out on southern recruits and play schools that have nothing in common with southern traditions. They know they are a target for the SEC and their #1 option is to stay in the ACC but everyone knows the conferences days are numbered.
A lot of people think this is going to be solely about money and yes that is a very large part of the equation. Most dont realize the south would rather not be connected to northern schools. Its a cultural disconnect and southern pride and politics are going to be a driving force with decision making of southern schools. The SEC is going to get a very lucrative deal that will make their schools one of the top 2 in the college athletics. UNC deciding to take a few million less a year is not all that much to give up if it means they get to stay in the south.
This is partly why I dont think GT is a smoke screen. GT knows they arent getting a SEC invite so they would just to the B1G at the drop of a hat. I think the B1G knows UNC is going to be a difficult get given their location and where they want to align themselves so it makes sense rumors about GT have been going on for couple months.
FSU/Clemson/vatech/NC st/wake/miami - no chance
BC - dark horse but in play for some obscure reason
Cuse - its possible
Pitt - Penn st has their territory covered
I think at the end of the day UVA will jump to the B1G. I dont think UNC does and eventually UNC/Duke go to the SEC.
Who is UVA partner though and I think it has become clear that B1G is going atleast 18 and possibly 20. Kansas I am not sure would leave because of the GOR and there seems to be a lot of disagreement over how the GOR actually works or can be enforced.
Given this scenario I like UConn's chances of a B1G invite but they still need some things to happen to strengthen their position.