If i misinterpreted your post, I apologize. Seems like you were implying firing Ollie (and/or hiring Hurley) was a mistake if Hurley doesn't have us back in the NCAAs in years 1 and/or 2.
I don't know what the schedule or the roster will look like in three years (nobody does) but barring some major injuries (God forbid) or a bunch of transfers, I think it's reasonable to expect us to be in. In three years, Hurley's true first class of recruits will only be sophomores, and the underclassmen on this team have been underwhelming so far. We "could" have 5 seniors on that team, and with improved recruiting, yes we should make the tourney. But we don't know that they'll all be here in 3 years.
He'll really have to develop and recruit, but I think he's up to the task. I wouldn't call him a total failure if we're competitive and clearly improving. Gun to my head, I think it's fair to expect us to be in the NCAAs in 3 years. But I don't think he's a "failure" if we're not. There are too many variables. For example, if we don't make the NCAA, but make the NIT end up in the final four (or better) with a bunch of freshman and sophomores as the core of the team, then I think we'd have plenty of reason for optimism.