Oh the irony. We have a much more diverse population, and a lower death rate, than the nine European countries with national healthcare systems listed above us in this chart.
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Oh the irony. We have a much more diverse population, and a lower death rate, than the nine European countries with national healthcare systems listed above us in this chart.
Look at demographics? Does Sweden have the highest death rate among all the countries on that chart? None of those countries are as diverse as the USA and they all have National Healthcare Systems and look where the USA stands on its death rate compared to them.
And, the guidance given to local health departments for this flu may be artificially inflating the number of deaths that have actually been caused by this virus. The CDC guidance said if a patient who died was suspected of having this virus, no matter whether they were tested or not and no matter that there was no proof they had it, and despite the other underlying conditions they had, the death was to be counted as a Covid-19 death.
How, and where, is the healthcare system coming apart at the seams? New York City where the Mayor and Health Commissioner were telling people as late as March 3 to go out to restaurants (and earlier in February to the Chinatown Parade)?
The major problem hospitals around the country have is lost revenue from having to shut down elective admissions to wait for the flood of virus patients that never came.
Vaccines will be the answer? How many successful vaccines have been produced for SARS, MERS, and the various iterations of the seasonal flu? SARS and MERS went away on their own and the seasonal flu annually kills 30-60,000 people while the 2017-18 season saw 80,000 deaths, possibly more than we'll have from this virus: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...e-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us
Politicians and businesses want to speed up reopening the economy? How about the average employee with a mortgage and other bills to pay? Look at the demographics and see who's at risk. It's mainly those of retirement age with serious underlying conditions. Not all people are able as you may be to take 8 to 10 weeks off from work and not lose their businesses, homes, ability to pay tuition for their kids, etc.
Take a look at the statistics regarding who and how many are being seriously harmed by this virus. It's the elderly with underlying conditions that have suffered the vast majority of the serious cases and deaths. Immune systems lose their ability to fight these viruses as you age. 64% of the deaths in Hartford County were nursing home patients and in my county in South Carolina all the less than ten deaths were people over the age of 65. People mocked the Governor of Florida but his approach focused on shielding the elderly by closing nursing homes and assisted living facilities to anyone other than staff and health care providers and their death rate is very low compared to most states.
Increased randomized testing is showing as many as 15-20% of the population have contracted the virus, most with no symptoms, including many children and young adults. Instead of shutting down the schools it now appears they should have been kept open to speed the development of natural herd immunity.
Eugenics? It appears it's diabetes and morbid obesity, conditions rare among the poor of other countries, even in the poorest countries of Africa, that are complicating the cases of many elderly and minority patients and leading to higher death rates among those groups so let's not make this a racial issue. Or are you a Margaret Sanger disciple?
You're very wrong about a lot of this. Deaths aren't being overreported. If anything, they are being underreported. Pneumonia deaths are in some places 1.5x their usual. You think that is a coincidence? You're regurgitating a speculative talking point with no evidence.
Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact
An analysis of CDC data suggests that COVID-19's death toll in the U.S. has been much worse than reported. Pneumonia cases are a clue as to why.
www.usatoday.com
You think way more of the population has it than we currently know and yet at the same time you think there's been an overreporting of deaths? It's not a cogent position.
Seasonal flu has an epidemiologist estimated IFR (total infection fatality rate, not just confirmed cases) of 0.04%.
Already more than 0.15% of New York City has died of COVID (confirmed, not including presumed). So that's the absolute baseline of IFR at 4x the rate of seasonal flu. Anitbody testing shows that likely only ~20% of NYC has had the virus so far, putting the IFR actually at 5x higher than 0.15% = 0.75%. So that's about 19x the flu's death rate.
Confirmed case fatality rate (CFR) of the flu is annually estimated around 0.1%. So far we're at 5.9% and rising for COVID (as patients who were confirmed as cases earlier later die). So that's 50x+ the flu's CFR.
If we keep deaths below that of a bad flu pandemic (80k), then we've really done our job with social distancing. All infectivity studies I've seen have shown COVID as more contagious than influenza. So if we let COVID get to the same attack rate of the population as yearly influenza (essentially no social distancing), using that conservative 19x (0.75% IFR) number we'd expect 1.1 million deaths instead of 60k. That would be the same as COMBINING the #1 and #2 yearly causes of human death in the US (heart disease and cancer).
Stop comparing COVID deaths to the flu when thinking about policy. It does a disservice to any good points you make.
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Chin Diesel
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going
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And , more importantly, close on it. Ollie had some guys like Oladipo who Ollie was on before he exploded.
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The thing is we just can't be certain on any numbers. They are reporting everthing a Covid death in some states. If you were already in heart failure or had a week to live with cancer and you test positive for Covid, you are listed as a Covid death. Other areas seem to be underreporting.You're very wrong about a lot of this. Deaths aren't being overreported. If anything, they are being underreported. Pneumonia deaths are in some places 1.5x their usual. You think that is a coincidence? You're regurgitating a speculative talking point with no evidence.
Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact
An analysis of CDC data suggests that COVID-19's death toll in the U.S. has been much worse than reported. Pneumonia cases are a clue as to why.
You think way more of the population has it than we currently know and yet at the same time you think there's been an overreporting of deaths? It's not a cogent position.
Seasonal flu has an epidemiologist estimated IFR (total infection fatality rate, not just confirmed cases) of 0.04%.
Already more than 0.15% of New York City has died of COVID (confirmed, not including presumed). So that's the absolute baseline of IFR at 4x the rate of seasonal flu. Anitbody testing shows that likely only ~20% of NYC has had the virus so far, putting the IFR actually at 5x higher than 0.15% = 0.75%. So that's about 19x the flu's death rate.
Confirmed case fatality rate (CFR) of the flu is annually estimated around 0.1%. So far we're at 5.9% and rising for COVID (as patients who were confirmed as cases earlier later die). So that's 50x+ the flu's CFR.
If we keep deaths below that of a bad flu pandemic (80k), then we've really done our job with social distancing. All infectivity studies I've seen have shown COVID as more contagious than influenza. So if we let COVID get to the same attack rate of the population as yearly influenza (essentially no social distancing), using that conservative 19x (0.75% IFR) number we'd expect 1.1 million deaths instead of 60k. That would be the same as COMBINING the #1 and #2 yearly causes of human death in the US (heart disease and cancer).
Stop comparing COVID deaths to the flu when thinking about policy. It does a disservice to any good points you make.
It would seem the numbers would be higher because there looks to be excess deaths but we also know people are dying at home from other diseases because they're scared to got to hospitals because of Covid.
There are a whole bunch of different things going on.
CL82
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One interesting thing that is going on is flu deaths took a precipitous drop as soon as Covid deaths started going up. There’s probably some under reporting and over reporting happening there.
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Or social distancing limited the transmission of the flu but covid19 is more contagious and has a higher death rate than the flu (like they told us).
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