An early UConn vs Stanford analysis

[VAUConnFan]

I agree with another poster to use KML on CO. KML has a bigger body and has natural instincts to box out. This would also force CO to guard KML out on the wing focing her sister to cover Steph one on one. This is something she wouldn't have to worry as much about with Kelly. Uconn needs to push tempo and force Tara to use her bench to give players rest. Anytime either sister sits Uconn will have an advantage.

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

 

[Tonyc]

You dont want KML or Stef in foul trouble. Heather and Kiah will have to guard Chiney and Neka and Heather is a very good defender and wont get into foul trouble. The last thing UConn needs is a freshman like KML to get into foul trouble and sit the bench. The O sisters are the go to players for Stanford. You could almost shaddow them on defense and intentionally not foul them and they could score 20 pts each and Stanford will only score not more then 70. UCOnn will score alot more then that because Stanford cannot get in foul trouble. They have a bench but no one who can do what the O sisters do. So the O sisters must avoid foul trouble.

 

[Vowelguy]

UCOnn will score alot more then that because Stanford cannot get in foul trouble.

And UConn can? If Stef gets fouls, UConn is in BIG trouble.

 

[Vowelguy]

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

But I imagine she will. Chiney did a superb job on Maya last year. I would guess one O sister guards Dolson, other takes KML or Tiff.

I imagine Faris is going to be left open a lot.

 

[speedoo]

But I imagine she will. Chiney did a superb job on Maya last year. I would guess one O sister guards Dolson, other takes KML or Tiff.

I imagine Faris is going to be left open a lot.

Yeah, Tara sets her defenses to leave UConn's least effective scorer open. Like Kalana Greene a few years back, and that one backfired.

 

[doggydaddy]

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

Then who would she guard?

If UConn has Dolson (covered by big sis), Faris, Doty, Hayes, or Hartley with Lewis, lil sis will be pulled away from the basket on defense.

Of course, lil sis can post up on offense. But she is going to get real tired chasing around whomever she is guarding.

 

[cardfan]

Good analysis (as always) DD. Michelle Smith, a writer who covers Stanford, was a guest on John A's chat this morning and I asked her why Orange was less productive against Gonzaga after a good game against Texas. Michelle said that Tara pulled her after a couple of mistakes and decided, with Stanford's depth, that she didn't need to allow Orange to play through those mistakes. So, as you suggest, it was a case of freshmen ups and downs.

I'm curious about Orange's perimeter shooting (cardfan?) and what impact that could have on her playing time. UConn will likely double in the post when possible and Orange would be a good one to leave open on the perimeter.

Orrange, nor orange. She is a play maker who drives more than shoots. She was a better match up for for TX vs Zags. Got pulled for sloppy post entry passes, and maybe some bad D. It seemed Tara wanted to stick with Lindy L. (Sr. leader) and Kokensis vs. Zags. It's way early, but Orrange will contribute a great deal this season, but not sure how much vs Uconn in Nov. or vs. TN in Dec.

 

[cardfan]

Im very confident UConn wins fairly easily. Dont underestimate a blowout. I really dont think Stanford can hang with us. We have to many scorers and they have the Osisters and thats about it. UConn by 10+ and if the defense handles their guards.....Good Night.

Need to scout us better Tonyc

 

[cardfan]

i'd be lying if i said i wasn't nervous. when we play a top ranked team, i'm always nervous. so many things can happen - AND it's very early in the season. i didn't think the 2nd half of the HC game was bad at all, but Geno and CD thought the whole game stunk so hopefully the much more efficient team that stomped Pacific shows up for the Stanford game.

having said that, i don't know what to expect. Stef was a frosh last year and Maya was a tad bigger and stronger than Kelly. starting Nneka and Chiney as the forwards for Stanford certainly will exploit size against Kelly and speed against Stef, while Stef will certainly have a size advantage over Nneka and Kelly has better guard skills than Chiney has. i agree that the advantage lies with Stanford in the post.

and for the guards and wings, i generally agree UCONN has the edge there. Doty, Hartley, and Hayes vs. Kokenis, Laroque and Greenfield. i'm of the general opinion that UCONN's guards have the edge in experience, athleticism, and experience, but i've not seen enough of Stanford's guards to know for sure.

Lindy did not impress me as a freshman, but she did as a sophomore. i really am not sure about Kokenis and Greenfield is, well, green. i'm not sure if Stanford plays man-man, or zone. i'd love to hear cardfan's analysis of the game.

i'd also give the bench edge to UCONN - Stanford has no one like KML off the bench, and i'm not sure how much they will use Booth or Tinkle. but i think Stanford does have a strong bench. and more than that, their bench gives a very different look to what their starters give - Booth and Tinkle are bigs who like to step out, and Orange is apparently a speed demon.

Geno seems to have been going with Kiah off the bench before Heather, but this may be a very good game for Heather's athelticism to shine as neither Booth nor Tinkle are big time bangers in the post.

either way i'm looking forward to the game. of course i hope we win, and the bigger we win the better IMHO.

Good analysis Eric. I think O sisters will be tough to contain if they stay out of foul trouble. Chiney fouled early in Zags and TX which limited her min. No doubt we may have trouble covering all your shooters. We are very young, but talented, so who knows which team team will show up and how Tara will use them. Same is somewhat true for Geno.

Lindy and Kokenis are 1-2 tandem in backcourt, which is very new for us. Orrange will play some pt, but imho, she does too much 1 on 1 now for a Stanford PG and will need more grooming, especially passing to posts. She will be good over time. Taylor Greenfiield will start at the 3. She is smart and tough (ala Pedersen, but a lttle meek frosh now) but watch out, she will be very, very good.

Tinkle will be first or second off the bench at the post vs wing last yr. Tinkle and Heather are very similar and toss up to me, maybe edge to Tinkle for her hook and playing experience. Boothe will play some, but only if Nneka is in foul trouble and needs a breather. Her hook is tough to stop, but she is prone to TOs. Tinkle has better hands in the paint. Ruef hasn'tplayed much, still recovering from foot injury. I'm surprised Samuelson hasn't seen more PT, but it's still about match-ups.

We will play man as we don't want to leave your shooters open in zone. It'll be close, or double digit win for Uconn. No doubt Uconn wants to defend their home streak and get pay back. My gut says Home court and back court experience gives Uconn the edge. Good luck!!

 

[cardfan]

I think Geno will go with what is working best. He has an exciting variety of looks he will be able to put on the floor. The Sisters O are very good but I haven't been that impressed with them (as I have been with Griner) this year. I predict our front court will surprise them..

You wouldn't say that if you saw them in person.

 

[Icebear]

Yeah, Tara sets her defenses to leave UConn's least effective scorer open. Like Kalana Greene a few years back, and that one backfired.

And Kelly scored well against them last year.

 

[AAADog]

I have a feeling that Heather and Kiah will get major minutes Monday. Both are more then capable of getting rebounds against the Stanford Posts. UCONN needs to get transition baskets. If you don't get rebounds you can't get fast break baskets. This is why are posts have to have a good game.

It might make sense to start Kiah or Heather instead of Bria, to get a tall forward on Chiney.

 

[Georgestarr7]

You wouldn't say that if you saw them in person.

Thanks, CF for the informative reply to Eric. I'll agree that I would probably be more impressed seeing them in person...the tube tells lies. I say that I haven't been impressed this year relative to the hype surrounding them. Within the landscape of WCBB they are certainly very impressive. From my perspective, I have seen our front court and I do believe they are (so far) very underrated. IMHO you put it best:
"We are very young, but talented, so who knows which team team will show up and how Tara will use them. Same is somewhat true for Geno. "
My only addendum to that would be to remove the "somewhat". This will be a very exciting game.

 

[Georgestarr7]

It might make sense to start Kiah or Heather instead of Bria, to get a tall forward on Chiney.

I think it would be fun to see one of them start for Kelly, and then, as soon as it seemed the defense was getting adjusted, start creative subbing to keep them off balance.

 

[NCorBust]

So go the Frosh (or is it Forsh?), so goes UCONN

Keys to UCONN beating Stanford
1. As has been said pressure their young guards and stop them on the boards, the offensive boards in particular.
2. My #1 key is a very strong defensive, scoring, and rebounding game from the Frosh. They are the difference between last year’s losing effort and this year’s winning effort, literally. These three must more than make up for Maya's absence.
3. Score points – many more than last year’s anemic 59 points. From last year we need to account for Maya’s 14 and Kelly’s 19. I don’t expect 19 from Kelly this year. We need many more than 3 from Tiff and more than Stef’s 6 and few more than 14 from Bria. The Kiddy Corps. must score a total of at least 25 points. Tiff 14 + Bria 16 + Kelly 5 + Stef 12 Caroline 9 = 56 + Frosh 25 = 81
4. High percentage shooting game - Somewhere above 45%. Last year UCONN shot 33% and the Cardinal shot 46%. Free Throws must be above 70%. High percentage shooting can translate to fewer rebounding opportunities for Stanford.
5. Kiah and Kaleena need to be very active on the boards. Rebounds have been stressed. However, while reviewing last year’s game total I was surprised to see UCONN did fairly well while being only slightly taller (2”). UCONN had 12 offensive rebounds (OR) and 24 defensive rebounds (DR) for a total of 36. Stanford totaled 43 with 10 OR and 33 DR. Maya and Samarie accounted for 14 boards. Kiah and Kaleena, they are yours!
6. Must stay out of foul trouble – In particular Stef must be careful. However, UCONN really cannot afford anyone in foul trouble. Keep the Cardinal off the charity stripe.
7. Protect and attack the ball – Minimize UCONN turnovers and maximize Stanford turnovers.
8. Can Heather be a key? If she is assigned 12 or so minutes of shutdown defense on Nneka and she delivers.​

 

[doggydaddy]

So go the Frosh (or is it Forsh?), so goes UCONN​

Keys to UCONN beating Stanford​

1. As has been said pressure their young guards and stop them on the boards, the offensive boards in particular.​

One of their guards is a senior, who led them in scoring last night. She is a solid ball handler. ​

2. My #1 key is a very strong defensive, scoring, and rebounding game from the Frosh. They are the difference between last year’s losing effort and this year’s winning effort, literally. These three must more than make up for Maya's absence.​

Not a bad key. But I'm thinking that Doty is a big key, as is a better performance from Hayes. With Uconn having so many weapons this year, there are lots of keys.​

3. Score points – many more than last year’s anemic 59 points. From last year we need to account for Maya’s 14 and Kelly’s 19. I don’t expect 19 from Kelly this year. We need many more than 3 from Tiff and more than Stef’s 6 and few more than 14 from Bria. The Kiddy Corps. must score a total of at least 25 points. Tiff 14 + Bria 16 + Kelly 5 + Stef 12 Caroline 9 = 56 + Frosh 25 = 81​

They just need to score more than Stanford. I don't think there is a specific formula.​

4. High percentage shooting game - Somewhere above 45%. Last year UCONN shot 33% and the Cardinal shot 46%. Free Throws must be above 70%. High percentage shooting can translate to fewer rebounding opportunities for Stanford.​

They just need a solid game. Last year was an anomoly, in my opinion. And it's the offensive rebounds that UConn has to be wary of. So Uconn's shooting percentage doesn't impact that.​

5. Kiah and Kaleena need to be very active on the boards. Rebounds have been stressed. However, while reviewing last year’s game total I was surprised to see UCONN did fairly well while being only slightly taller (2”). UCONN had 12 offensive rebounds (OR) and 24 defensive rebounds (DR) for a total of 36. Stanford totaled 43 with 10 OR and 33 DR. Maya and Samarie accounted for 14 boards. Kiah and Kaleena, they are yours! ​

Everyone needs to box out and hit the boards. If they can stay with Stanford in regards to rebounding, UConn will win.​

6. Must stay out of foul trouble – In particular Stef must be careful. However, UCONN really cannot afford anyone in foul trouble. Keep the Cardinal off the charity stripe.​

UConn was the least fouling team in the country last year and for several years. At least close to the least. They are much better prepared, roster wise, to deal with any foul trouble. ​

7. Protect and attack the ball – Minimize UCONN turnovers and maximize Stanford turnovers.​

Always.​

8. Can Heather be a key? If she is assigned 12 or so minutes of shutdown defense on Nneka and she delivers. ​

No one will shut down the Elder. But to minimize her impact will take a team effort.​

 

[wallman]

Oh this will be one of the years first big games and I have to give it to Uconn IMO, Kokenis is the fastest on Stanfords team, she burned UCLA last year with her speed but was also a little out of control because of it - weakness upright dribbler, Banks could have a field day guarding her even though she may give up a little on the offensive end right now.

Orrange has not seemed to play as well as I thought she would apart from Texas which probably was home inspired, could be pressured on ball and weakness is no range on shot. Laroque who will she guard on Uconn? Another who can be pressured on ball and that along with Greenfield as both slow and will not go by Hayes, Faris, Doty.

The key IMO is to pressure the ball so they cannot feed the O sisters, don't help and overplay and you limit shots and passes, so the O sisters can't clean up around the boards. Chiney O has a tendency to foul so if she does rebounding becomes less of an issue. She did a great job on Maya last year but you have more scoring options instead of relying on Maya, attack and push the ball and draw fouls. As stated above Dolson has to stay out of foul trouble, she has to be the most improved post from high school and I understand from Cat that CD had a lot to do with that.

My picks for the most trouble for you guys is Notre Dame and Baylor because of their PG play, Griner and Peters.

 

[speedoo]

Oh this will be one of the years first big games and I have to give it to Uconn IMO, Kokenis is the fastest on Stanfords team, she burned UCLA last year with her speed but was also a little out of control because of it - weakness upright dribbler, Banks could have a field day guarding her even though she may give up a little on the offensive end right now. Orrange has not seemed to play as well as I thought she would apart from Texas which probably was home inspired, could be pressured on ball and weakness is no range on shot. Laroque who will she guard on Uconn? Another who can be pressured on ball and that along with Greenfield as both slow and will not go by Hayes, Faris, Doty - the key IMO is to pressure the ball so they cannot feed the O sisters, don't help and overplay and you limit shots and passes, so the O sisters can't clean up around the boards, Chiney O has a tendency to foul so if she does rebounding becomes less of an issue, she did a great job on Maya last year but you have more scoring options instead of relying on Maya, attack and push the ball and draw fouls. As stated above Dolson has to stay out of foul trouble, she has to be the most improved post from high school and I understand from Cat that CD had a lot to do with that.

My picks for the most trouble for you guys is Notre Dame and Baylor because of their PG play, Griner and Peters.

I don't get the Kokenis connection with speed... I've seen her play quite a bit and never felt like she had more than average speed. And i don't see ND giving UConn more trouble than the Aggies.

Other than those quibbles, I agree with your post.

 

[HuskyNan]

We've talked about the "emotion" of the players from last year wanting "revenge" but I don't really buy it. What I DO wonder is what kind of nerves/emotions the UConn youngsters might have to deal with in front of a full house, with a great opponent and on (semi) national team. Will Caroline and Tiff have the ability to keep them focused and in control of their emotions. Can the do what they and the coaches say they have to learn to do -- not compound one mistake with a second?

Yes, but Stanford has freshmen, too, and one of them is going to have to try to guard Tiff. Can the Stanford freshmen keep their cool on the road in a hostile environment?

 

[cardfan]

I don't get the Kokenis connection with speed... I've seen her play quite a bit and never felt like she had more than average speed. And i don't see ND giving UConn more trouble than the Aggies.

Other than those quibbles, I agree with your post.

Kokenis is very fast in the open court.

 

[CTyankee]

The best thing about this game is that it is being played early in the season and will give the girls a taste of heavy competition without all the pressure of end of season... And will also give Geno and the team a starting benchmark to measure future improvement against...

 

[Vowelguy]

Yes, but Stanford has freshmen, too, and one of them is going to have to try to guard Tiff. Can the Stanford freshmen keep their cool on the road in a hostile environment?

Not sure about that. I could see one of the Os guarding Tiff and putting Greenfield on Faris.

 

[doggydaddy]

Not sure about that. I could see one of the Os guarding Tiff and putting Greenfield on Faris.

Possible.

Stanford will probably start Big sis, Lil Sis, Greenfield, Kokenis and LaRoque.

UConn will start Dolson, Faris, Hayes, Hartley, Doty.

I put them in the same order that the might cover each other. If you switch Greenfield and Chiney and they cover Faris and Hayes, it's still a nightmare for Stanford. But there will be lots of subs for any Stanford players not named Ogumike.

As talented as The Elder is, Dolson will be a handful for her down low. And visa versa of course.

 

[Vowelguy]

If you switch Greenfield and Chiney and they cover Faris and Hayes, it's still a nightmare for Stanford. But there will be lots of subs for any Stanford players not named Ogumike.

Why is that a nightmare for Stanford? Chiney was part of the crew that frustrated Maya last year.

 

[ladybears4eva]

.
The Stanford guards have a unique way of passing the ball to the Ogwumike sisters; they shoot the ball. They have 29 offensive rebounds in the first two games, 20 against Texas. Result? Layups for the Ogwumikes ... lots of layups. Kelly and Stef are going to have play the rebounding game of their lives. Why only nine rebounds against Gonzaga? Their guards were able to actually pass the ball to the sisters. So it is a game of pressuring their guards and blocking out like never before.
.

i agree with this post, it is the offensive rebound that really sets stanford apart at this point. The O sisters are maniacs for the O rebounds, and just put them back for easy lay ups. Against Texas and their bigs (Cokie Reed 6'5" and Gayle 6'2") they out muscled them with quick o rebounding and easy layups because they are so quick and athletic, which i do not think Stef or your newbie posts can handle. Reed is a very skilled and higher rated post than Stef and she had such a hard time keeping up with the O sisters.

I think the guard position in Uconn's team is the difference maker, if Hartley, Hayes, and KML can score 3s off the chart, then 3s vs 2s will outlast the game and a margin will build, but if they have an off night it will be a long night in Hartford.

La Roque did shoot the 3 ball well last game so she could be the difference maker there, since i believe the O rebound and put back game is the O sisters dominant win.

Its and early year, so we shall see what happens. I think UCONNs guards are going to be so hard for Stanford to stop if they shoot well from 15 ft and out.