An early UConn vs Stanford analysis

[EricSD]

i'd be lying if i said i wasn't nervous. when we play a top ranked team, i'm always nervous. so many things can happen - AND it's very early in the season. i didn't think the 2nd half of the HC game was bad at all, but Geno and CD thought the whole game stunk so hopefully the much more efficient team that stomped Pacific shows up for the Stanford game.

having said that, i don't know what to expect. Stef was a frosh last year and Maya was a tad bigger and stronger than Kelly. starting Nneka and Chiney as the forwards for Stanford certainly will exploit size against Kelly and speed against Stef, while Stef will certainly have a size advantage over Nneka and Kelly has better guard skills than Chiney has. i agree that the advantage lies with Stanford in the post.

and for the guards and wings, i generally agree UCONN has the edge there. Doty, Hartley, and Hayes vs. Kokenis, Laroque and Greenfield. i'm of the general opinion that UCONN's guards have the edge in experience, athleticism, and experience, but i've not seen enough of Stanford's guards to know for sure.

Lindy did not impress me as a freshman, but she did as a sophomore. i really am not sure about Kokenis and Greenfield is, well, green. i'm not sure if Stanford plays man-man, or zone. i'd love to hear cardfan's analysis of the game.

i'd also give the bench edge to UCONN - Stanford has no one like KML off the bench, and i'm not sure how much they will use Booth or Tinkle. but i think Stanford does have a strong bench. and more than that, their bench gives a very different look to what their starters give - Booth and Tinkle are bigs who like to step out, and Orange is apparently a speed demon.

Geno seems to have been going with Kiah off the bench before Heather, but this may be a very good game for Heather's athelticism to shine as neither Booth nor Tinkle are big time bangers in the post.

either way i'm looking forward to the game. of course i hope we win, and the bigger we win the better IMHO.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I think Geno will go with what is working best. He has an exciting variety of looks he will be able to put on the floor. The Sisters O are very good but I haven't been that impressed with them (as I have been with Griner) this year. I predict our front court will surprise them..

You are a hard person to please. What was it about Nneka's 33 points and 18 rebounds that did not impress you?

 

[alexrgct]

Stanford allowed Texas to score 59 and Gonzaga 61. UConn's ability to score on offense and off their defense are so much better than either of those teams, there is no way they don't score more than 70.

Transitive property is a dangerous path to go down.

 

[wire chief]

Transitive property is a dangerous path to go down.

Agreed, particularly if we take under advisement that we let Pacific score 53, a lesser team than Texas or Gonzaga.

 

[doggydaddy]

Transitive property is a dangerous path to go down.

Danger is my middle name.

I'll say it again. UConn is a much better scoring team than either Texas or BYU. So, please explain why UConn won't score more than 57 points?

I'd be happy to explain why they will.

 

[doggydaddy]

Agreed, particularly if we take under advisement that we let Pacific score 53, a lesser team than Texas or Gonzaga.

Like that makes sense?

 

[VAMike23]

Stanford allowed Texas to score 59 and Gonzaga 61. UConn's ability to score on offense and off their defense are so much better than either of those teams, there is no way they don't score more than 70.

Then again we only scored 77 against HC. Definitely some caveats there, but that was our production. Sometimes the sensible doesn't hold up, you never know

 

[doggydaddy]

Then again we only scored 77 against HC. Definitely some caveats there, but that was our production. Sometimes the sensible doesn't hold up, you never know

So, what is your score prediction?

 

[VAMike23]

So, what is your score prediction?

Don't have a strong feeling, I think it's a toss-up--winner will score in the high 60s. Slight edge to the Huskies due to home-court and multiple outside threats. Tougher for Tara to game-plan.

 

[ThisJustIn]

We've talked about the "emotion" of the players from last year wanting "revenge" but I don't really buy it. What I DO wonder is what kind of nerves/emotions the UConn youngsters might have to deal with in front of a full house, with a great opponent and on (semi) national team. Will Caroline and Tiff have the ability to keep them focused and in control of their emotions. Can the do what they and the coaches say they have to learn to do -- not compound one mistake with a second?

It'll be fun to see!

 

[Tonyc]

Gosh I really dont think we get out rebounded by 15 or 20 which is what I think it will take for Stanford to hang with us. I know the O sisters are good rebounders but were UConn and although we are a bit shorter at times we still know how to box out. Stanford cant out shoot us so they will have to score alot of points on rebounds. Unless theyre 2 ft from the basket and most long shots dont fall close to the basket they bounce futher away, then I dont think it will make a big difference. To win Stanford is going to have to play really well as a Team and or UConn will have to play pretty poorly and with their depth I dont see that happening. I think all the questions of how good UConn is will be answered in this game and the TAM game. I repeat this is a really good team that can score alot of points.

 

[Icebear]

The O sisters are excellent rebounders but Stef is, also, excellent at boxing out and clearing space for our quick slashing rebounders to sweep in clean up the boards and no one is better at keeping rebounds alive than UConn with its tap and gather technique.

 

[asuwish]

Well, this seems like a good game to start my attempt at analyzing selective games. The tough part is how early in the season. At least for Stanford, I can get an idea on their rotation based on the fact they played two decent opponents in Texas and BYU. And I have a feel for what Geno will do, so I’ll use that experience in writing this analysis.

You can look at this in a simplistic way. In players that will see some time Monday:

UConn loses Moore AND DIXON, gains Doty, Lewis, Banks and Stokes.
Stanford loses Pohlen, Pederson, gains Orrange, Greenfield, and maybe Samuelson (hasn't played much yet).

As great as Moore was for UConn last year, I think based on whom they gained, UConn should be the more improved team. We have seen enough of the freshman to know their potential. I did get to see the Texas game and I love how Greenfield plays. And Orrange had a great 1st game but a weak second game. Typical ups and downs for freshman. And don't underestimate the leadership void of Pholen and Pederson.

So, I’ll jump into the position by position comparison, including the bench and coaching staff.

PG – Doty (5’10) vs Kokenis (5’11”). Too early to use this years stats. UConn doesn’t even have them up. This will really be the first time Kokenis faces UConn as she only played 7 minutes last year. The reality is that these two are very similar players. Kokenis hasn’t seen the defense she will see on Monday. Way too much speed for her. And Caroline’s fire and experience give UConn the advantage.

SG – Hartley (5’7”, errr, 5’9) vs LaRoque (5’8). Harley has had an uneven start, but she can do it all from the guard position. Shooting great so far and shot great last year, so she is just continuing her improvement. LaRoque is a weak link. Not particularly quick, Hartley will have her way with her, unless Stanford covers her with Kokenis. That won’t work either. HUGE advantage UConn.

C – Dolson (6’5”) vs N. Ogumike (6’2”) Probably the most intriguing matchup of the game. N.O. is just a flat out star. She can dominate the game from the foul line in. The question is will her quickness allow her to successfully cover Dolson. Dolson will need a lot of help covering N.O. for sure. Got to give the advantage to Stanford here, but we all could be surprised/happy on how effective Dolson is in this game.

PF – Faris (5’11”) vs C. Ogumike (6’3”). Oh boy. Very tough matchup for Kelly. C.O. is just an awesome player. Kelly will have to be at her best in blocking out. But expect LOTS of putbacks for C.O. Really looking forward to see how Faris deals with this. Advantage Stanford on this one.

SF – Hayes (5’10) vs Greenfield (6’3”). Greenfield will struggle staying in front of Hayes. And she is a freshman on a big stage for the first time. This is a great opportunity for Hayes to show everyone that she can play in the big game. Gotta give this one to Tiff. Advantage Uconn.

Bench – Stokes (6’3”), Lewis (6’), Banks (5’9), Buck (6’3”) vs Orrange (5’8”), Tinkle (6’3”) and Boothe (6’5”). Based on minutes of the first two games, I wouldn’t include any of the other Stanford players. 1 or 2 minutes each for those. While I liked how Orrange looked in the Texas game, she was not very good in the 2nd game. Tinkle and Boothe are too slow to contribute that much. Lewis is a star in the making of not already there. Her talent is off the charts. Banks is similar to Orrange in being a speedy type guard. That might be a fun matchup. And Uconn’s bench bigs will do well against the Stanford bench bigs. Advantage UConn.

Coaching staff. – Two HOFers. Tough to pick an advantage here. But I think Geno is just a little bit better coach. Slight advantage UConn.

Intangibles – Home court here will be worth at least 5 points this year. Stanford’s backcourt will struggle mightily with the speed of Uconn and the loud crowd will just make it worse. And with many players remembering last years loss, revenge is always a good motivator.

So, in summary, I would give UConn the edge. I think if they can do a solid job on the boards, UConn will win by double digits. Stanford can keep it close with a great offensive rebounding effort. They certainly are capable of that. UConn is a MUCH better shooting team, especially from deep. If they are hot, look out. UConn runs away with it at the end.

GO HUSKIES!!!!!

I agree with another poster to use KML on CO. KML has a bigger body and has natural instincts to box out. This would also force CO to guard KML out on the wing focing her sister to cover Steph one on one. This is something she wouldn't have to worry as much about with Kelly. Uconn needs to push tempo and force Tara to use her bench to give players rest. Anytime either sister sits Uconn will have an advantage.

 

[Georgestarr7]

You are a hard person to please. What was it about Nneka's 33 points and 18 rebounds that did not impress you?

Yes, that was a very respectable performance by N.O. against Gonzaga however I believe Stef's and, in general, UConn's defense will limit her. I think C.O. will have difficulty adjusting to UConn's diverse arsenal. My concern is how the foul picture evolves.

 

[bruinbball]

I agree with another poster to use KML on CO. KML has a bigger body and has natural instincts to box out. This would also force CO to guard KML out on the wing focing her sister to cover Steph one on one. This is something she wouldn't have to worry as much about with Kelly. Uconn needs to push tempo and force Tara to use her bench to give players rest. Anytime either sister sits Uconn will have an advantage.

Who led UConn in scoring against Stanford last year?

 

[John Fryer]

I'm skeptical. That would probably mean a 9-man rotation in a big/close game, which is pretty rare for Geno. I'm guessing less than 20 minutes combined for the two of them.

Coaching was another important factor mentioned in the analysis.

Last year, IMO, Stanford's coaches made better in-game adjustments than did UConn's.

This year, and not only for this game, UConn's ultimate success will be closely related to coach A's ability to step outside of his comfort zones. This year, for example, UConn has more than 6 six players to rely on, IMO, of course.

Besides, if you don't have enough confidence in the bench players to use them in important early season games, it is very unlikely that you will have confidence in them in important games during tournament times. Again, IMO, of course.

Peace,

John Fryer

 

[Husky68]

Yeah, I remember those NC games where Tennessee kept outrebounding them. UConn is doomed.

How about a little more recent history. 2 loses last year. ND outrebounded Uconn 39-27 and Trees out rebounded Uconn 43-36. Hmmmm. Seem like losing the rebounding battle is not a good indicator of probable victory. Closest victory of 1 point over Bears won rebounding battle 40-35. Yeah, not worried about rebounding. A team we last played in NC some 8 or 9 years ago could rebound but not shoot, that proves rebounding not a key to victory against Stanford on Monday.

 

[doggydaddy]

How about a little more recent history. 2 loses last year. ND outrebounded Uconn 39-27 and Trees out rebounded Uconn 43-36. Hmmmm. Seem like losing the rebounding battle is not a good indicator of probable victory. Closest victory of 1 point over Bears won rebounding battle 40-35. Yeah, not worried about rebounding. A team we last played in NC some 8 or 9 years ago could rebound but not shoot, that proves rebounding not a key to victory against Stanford on Monday.

Wow...so much sarcasm, so little time.

There is so much more to the game than rebounding. It could be a difference maker, and I have even said in my post that they need to do a good job on the boards.

 

[intlzncster]

How about a little more recent history. 2 loses last year. ND outrebounded Uconn 39-27 and Trees out rebounded Uconn 43-36. Hmmmm. Seem like losing the rebounding battle is not a good indicator of probable victory. Closest victory of 1 point over Bears won rebounding battle 40-35. Yeah, not worried about rebounding. A team we last played in NC some 8 or 9 years ago could rebound but not shoot, that proves rebounding not a key to victory against Stanford on Monday.

It's a cause and effect thing though. One of the reasons we were out rebounded is because we shot so poorly in those games, and it's easier to get defensive rebounds than offensive. Also, Steph was sitting on the pine for much of the 2nd game.

Plus they were two away games for us (Indianapolis was like a home game for ND).

 

[Tonyc]

Im very confident UConn wins fairly easily. Dont underestimate a blowout. I really dont think Stanford can hang with us. We have to many scorers and they have the Osisters and thats about it. UConn by 10+ and if the defense handles their guards.....Good Night.

 

[VAUConnFan]

I agree with another poster to use KML on CO. KML has a bigger body and has natural instincts to box out. This would also force CO to guard KML out on the wing focing her sister to cover Steph one on one. This is something she wouldn't have to worry as much about with Kelly. Uconn needs to push tempo and force Tara to use her bench to give players rest. Anytime either sister sits Uconn will have an advantage.

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

 

[Tonyc]

You dont want KML or Stef in foul trouble. Heather and Kiah will have to guard Chiney and Neka and Heather is a very good defender and wont get into foul trouble. The last thing UConn needs is a freshman like KML to get into foul trouble and sit the bench. The O sisters are the go to players for Stanford. You could almost shaddow them on defense and intentionally not foul them and they could score 20 pts each and Stanford will only score not more then 70. UCOnn will score alot more then that because Stanford cannot get in foul trouble. They have a bench but no one who can do what the O sisters do. So the O sisters must avoid foul trouble.

 

[Vowelguy]

UCOnn will score alot more then that because Stanford cannot get in foul trouble.

And UConn can? If Stef gets fouls, UConn is in BIG trouble.

 

[Vowelguy]

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

But I imagine she will. Chiney did a superb job on Maya last year. I would guess one O sister guards Dolson, other takes KML or Tiff.

I imagine Faris is going to be left open a lot.

 

[speedoo]

But I imagine she will. Chiney did a superb job on Maya last year. I would guess one O sister guards Dolson, other takes KML or Tiff.

I imagine Faris is going to be left open a lot.

Yeah, Tara sets her defenses to leave UConn's least effective scorer open. Like Kalana Greene a few years back, and that one backfired.

 

[doggydaddy]

If KML guards Chiney, that does not necessarily mean that Chiney will guard KML on the other end.

Then who would she guard?

If UConn has Dolson (covered by big sis), Faris, Doty, Hayes, or Hartley with Lewis, lil sis will be pulled away from the basket on defense.

Of course, lil sis can post up on offense. But she is going to get real tired chasing around whomever she is guarding.

 

[cardfan]

Good analysis (as always) DD. Michelle Smith, a writer who covers Stanford, was a guest on John A's chat this morning and I asked her why Orange was less productive against Gonzaga after a good game against Texas. Michelle said that Tara pulled her after a couple of mistakes and decided, with Stanford's depth, that she didn't need to allow Orange to play through those mistakes. So, as you suggest, it was a case of freshmen ups and downs.

I'm curious about Orange's perimeter shooting (cardfan?) and what impact that could have on her playing time. UConn will likely double in the post when possible and Orange would be a good one to leave open on the perimeter.

Orrange, nor orange. She is a play maker who drives more than shoots. She was a better match up for for TX vs Zags. Got pulled for sloppy post entry passes, and maybe some bad D. It seemed Tara wanted to stick with Lindy L. (Sr. leader) and Kokensis vs. Zags. It's way early, but Orrange will contribute a great deal this season, but not sure how much vs Uconn in Nov. or vs. TN in Dec.

 

[cardfan]

Im very confident UConn wins fairly easily. Dont underestimate a blowout. I really dont think Stanford can hang with us. We have to many scorers and they have the Osisters and thats about it. UConn by 10+ and if the defense handles their guards.....Good Night.

Need to scout us better Tonyc

 

[cardfan]

i'd be lying if i said i wasn't nervous. when we play a top ranked team, i'm always nervous. so many things can happen - AND it's very early in the season. i didn't think the 2nd half of the HC game was bad at all, but Geno and CD thought the whole game stunk so hopefully the much more efficient team that stomped Pacific shows up for the Stanford game.

having said that, i don't know what to expect. Stef was a frosh last year and Maya was a tad bigger and stronger than Kelly. starting Nneka and Chiney as the forwards for Stanford certainly will exploit size against Kelly and speed against Stef, while Stef will certainly have a size advantage over Nneka and Kelly has better guard skills than Chiney has. i agree that the advantage lies with Stanford in the post.

and for the guards and wings, i generally agree UCONN has the edge there. Doty, Hartley, and Hayes vs. Kokenis, Laroque and Greenfield. i'm of the general opinion that UCONN's guards have the edge in experience, athleticism, and experience, but i've not seen enough of Stanford's guards to know for sure.

Lindy did not impress me as a freshman, but she did as a sophomore. i really am not sure about Kokenis and Greenfield is, well, green. i'm not sure if Stanford plays man-man, or zone. i'd love to hear cardfan's analysis of the game.

i'd also give the bench edge to UCONN - Stanford has no one like KML off the bench, and i'm not sure how much they will use Booth or Tinkle. but i think Stanford does have a strong bench. and more than that, their bench gives a very different look to what their starters give - Booth and Tinkle are bigs who like to step out, and Orange is apparently a speed demon.

Geno seems to have been going with Kiah off the bench before Heather, but this may be a very good game for Heather's athelticism to shine as neither Booth nor Tinkle are big time bangers in the post.

either way i'm looking forward to the game. of course i hope we win, and the bigger we win the better IMHO.

Good analysis Eric. I think O sisters will be tough to contain if they stay out of foul trouble. Chiney fouled early in Zags and TX which limited her min. No doubt we may have trouble covering all your shooters. We are very young, but talented, so who knows which team team will show up and how Tara will use them. Same is somewhat true for Geno.

Lindy and Kokenis are 1-2 tandem in backcourt, which is very new for us. Orrange will play some pt, but imho, she does too much 1 on 1 now for a Stanford PG and will need more grooming, especially passing to posts. She will be good over time. Taylor Greenfiield will start at the 3. She is smart and tough (ala Pedersen, but a lttle meek frosh now) but watch out, she will be very, very good.

Tinkle will be first or second off the bench at the post vs wing last yr. Tinkle and Heather are very similar and toss up to me, maybe edge to Tinkle for her hook and playing experience. Boothe will play some, but only if Nneka is in foul trouble and needs a breather. Her hook is tough to stop, but she is prone to TOs. Tinkle has better hands in the paint. Ruef hasn'tplayed much, still recovering from foot injury. I'm surprised Samuelson hasn't seen more PT, but it's still about match-ups.

We will play man as we don't want to leave your shooters open in zone. It'll be close, or double digit win for Uconn. No doubt Uconn wants to defend their home streak and get pay back. My gut says Home court and back court experience gives Uconn the edge. Good luck!!

 

[cardfan]

I think Geno will go with what is working best. He has an exciting variety of looks he will be able to put on the floor. The Sisters O are very good but I haven't been that impressed with them (as I have been with Griner) this year. I predict our front court will surprise them..

You wouldn't say that if you saw them in person.