Fair enough. But I said the assist to TO ratio was the single best statistical measure, not the only measure. Which single stat would be more precise? Diggins also had similar assists/minute and more scoring than Chelsea, although I do not how many of Diggins (or Gray's) points were pick and roll or pick and pop.
Fightin Choke, in my previous post, I suggested the use of a formula as a statistical measure, specifically using Hollinger's PER (
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...n.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=pg)
This formula measures the following statistics (though I think for purposes of this discussion, rebounding was not a focal point or an issue being addressed with respect to this particular thread/debate):
- True Shooting Percentage - what a player's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = Total points / [(FGA + (0.44 x FTA)]
- Assist Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
- Turnover Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
- Usage Rate - the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)
- Offensive rebound rate
- Defensive rebound rate
- Rebound Rate - the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Rebound Rate = (100 x (Rebounds x Team Minutes)) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]
- Player Efficiency Rating is the overall rating of a player's per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season.
- Value Added - the estimated number of points a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' (for instance, the 12th man on the roster) would produce. Value Added = ([Minutes * (PER - PRL)] / 67). PRL (Position Replacement Level) = 11.5 for power forwards, 11.0 for point guards, 10.6 for centers, 10.5 for shooting guards and small forwards
- Estimated Wins Added - Value Added divided by 30, giving the estimated number of wins a player adds to a team’s season total above what a 'replacement player' would produce.
But as to your questions regarding the "single best statistical measure" or which "single stat would be more precise," I do not believe that there is a single stat/statistical measure that can determine the best measure of a playmaker. For all the statistical analysis in the world, it does not replace the ability to watch a game and make an informed decision. The above-referenced formula is a great, comprensive measure (and really handy if someone wants to provide a link to support an argument as to whether Player A is better than Player B). But the formula, just like any other statistic, primarily takes account a player's actions (shot, rebound, assist, etc.) at a given point in time; it does not set forth what the other four players (outside of an assist) are doing on the court at the very moment.
For example, if Bria Hartley makes a direct pass to Kiah Stokes who finishes a layup, Hartley gets the assist while Stokes gets the made shot and the points. But I have yet to see a formula that would be able to tell me whether Hartley created the play off the dribble or of off receiving a pass herself, whether Hartley was in a traditional halfcourt set or if she was running a fast break, whether Hartley crossed-over her defender (or even if Hartley and/or Stokes were being defended) or simply threw the pass into the post, whether Hartley broke down her defender by herself or whether Stef Dolson set a hard screen for Hartley, etc.
So while you contend that looking at an assists-to-turnover ratio is "the single best measure of a playmaker," I do not believe this is a correct assessment based on the fact I do not believe there is such a thing as a "single best measure of a playmaker."
And, as a final point,
look at the WNBA statistics right now. In the top ten in the league for assist-to-turnover ratio are the following people: Kalana Greene, Erin Thorn, Roneeka Hodges, Shameka Christon, and Tiffany Hayes (side note...congratulations to UConn for producing two non-point guards in the top ten). Are any of those five "playmakers?" None are. A few can create their own shots. But none of them are point guards, much less playmakers or quarterbacks of an offense. They simply do not turn the ball over that much, relative to the amount of assists that they accumulate.