The Funster
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In my mind, Dan forever will be known as "slash".
1) I don't see this being 3 games for long, and it may start at 7 games. If you are a network, and there is a playoff of some form out there, every other bowl game's value drops dramatically. Who wants to watch the Capital One Bowl when there is a playoff? Everything else just became the NIT. The interest in bowls was dropping already, it will crater now. Sponsors will evaporate, the whole gig is up if there is a playoff. I bet many of the mid-range bowls fold up shop over night. Why bother?.
Rumors out there on FSU and WVU message boards that the ACC is taking ESPN to arbitration in a bid to get $18MM/school. Anyone think the Big East is still #1 on ESPN's s*** list?
Edit: WVU "insider" on scout also saying that FSU wants Clemson, Miami and GTech to come with them.
I find the Miami and GTech rumor suspect. I'm not sure Tech really cares much about sports and Miami is a small private with an empty stadium. I am beginning to think Miami will slip further and further.
Agree on both counts, but if FSU and Clemson are walking out the door anyway, GTech and Miami's options get real ugly, real fast. I think both want to remain major conference schools but aren't committed to being top programs. Tagging along with FSU is the right move in that situation.
I suspect FSU and Clemson's motives are a) both recruit Georgia and south Florida, b) both want regional rivals, and c) give the SEC the finger for their "gentlemen's agreement" never to invite schools from Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Rumors, which seem to be coming from multiple "insider" sources, that Swofford has jacked his demand to $315MM (or at least a very big number) a year for the ACC. The league is at $155 million right now, albeit with 12 members.
This says to me that his nuts are in a vise and he is going to lose some teams if he doesn't shoot for the stars. This may explain why the ACC is planning on going to arbitration, because the ACC deal will be worth more than the ACC and Big East deals would have been worth combined if ESPN had simply negotiated with the Big East in good faith. At $80MM per year each, Pitt and Syracuse could turn into the two most expensive expansion additions in college history.
Or ESPN could just gut the ACC. What do you think they will do?
Rumors, which seem to be coming from multiple "insider" sources, that Swofford has jacked his demand to $315MM (or at least a very big number) a year for the ACC. The league is at $155 million right now, albeit with 12 members.
This says to me that his nuts are in a vise and he is going to lose some teams if he doesn't shoot for the stars. This may explain why the ACC is planning on going to arbitration, because the ACC deal will be worth more than the ACC and Big East deals would have been worth combined if ESPN had simply negotiated with the Big East in good faith. At $80MM per year each, Pitt and Syracuse could turn into the two most expensive expansion additions in college history.
Or ESPN could just gut the ACC. What do you think they will do?
I think Umass has played the big boys... They were very competitive with Michigan a few years back.I think that the ACC leadership is very nervous, that the Big East may land a deal come 2013, with a competiting network to ESPN, that is better than what ESPN has in place for the ACC.
Crazy huh? i've been called crazy before. But it just might happen.
THe big east gets to meet with ESPN for contract renewal negotiations starting in September 2012, right after we give UMass their introduction to big boy football, and if nothing is done by November I believe, the Big East becomes a free agent.
I think that the ACC leadership is very nervous, that the Big East may land a deal come 2013, with a competiting network to ESPN, that is better than what ESPN has in place for the ACC.
Crazy huh? i've been called crazy before. But it just might happen.
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I think the ACC's best chance is to scare ESPN out of arbitration..
Or ESPN could just gut the ACC. What do you think they will do?
The benchmark on the ACC deal is probably $210MM annually (14 schools x $15MM/school which ESPN already appears to have agreed to as part of the raid of the Big East). ESPN could take Clemson and FSU at $22.5 each (est.) and put them in the Big 12, and reduce the ACC contract by at least $30MM for the two lost teams, for a net cost to ESPN of $15MM per year, some of which will be picked up by Fox. In return, ESPN will increase the value of Clemson and FSU by giving them better matchups on a weekly basis.
Or ESPN could pay the ACC another $105MM a year. The difference, $90MM, would be an incremental ANNUAL cost, so the total cost over the contract would be an incremental $900 million to ESPN. Is ESPN really feeling that generous?
The only way ESPN budges is if they still want the rest of the ACC and decide that FSU and Clemson are more valuable to ESPN within the ACC than they are in the Big 12. Is all that worth $900MM?
Well if you think the Big East is getting lets say 12 million a football team, thats 1.4 billion over 10 years. Is that Big east worth 500 million more than the ACC without Clemson and FSU?
That's not the right math. Without Clemson and FSU, if ESPN just leaves the contract alone at 12 teams, they will be paying $180MM a year, or $1.8 billion over the life of the deal. So they would ALREADY be paying the ACC-Clemson-FSU more than they are paying the Big East. The extra $900 million would just be thrown in for fun.
Sorry I misunderstood your point the first time I read your post. I don't disagree on 22.5 each being an insane number for the ACC that they can't get.
I do disagree with the idea that they are trying gut the league. They are just playing hardball with them. Maybe their plan all along was to gut the ACC after they finished gutting the Big East but that doesn't make a ton of sense. Maybe the destruction of the ACC fell in their laps at this point and they see an opportunity, but they own the ACC - why destroy it over what will end up being much less than 90 million a year.
At some level FSU and Clemson have to understand they can make up a few million dollars in TV money by having a consistently better record in the ACC instead of tangling with more travel and a consistently tougher schedule.
That is the end game for Missouri. Welcome to the SEC - enjoy going 7-5 in your best years.
It's secondary but if ESPN is looking to dump the Big East, in the winter what are they selling for a basketball schedule if they weaken the ACC too badly? No one else but VPI can compete in football over the long term in the Big 12 or Big 10.
This isn't a few million. Of FromTheInside's representation about Tier 3 rights from about 20 pages back is correct, and looking at the potential revenue of the new playoff system, FSU and Clemson could be looking at upwards of $30 million a year in the Big 12 vs. $15MM in the ACC. they would make up their $20MM departure fee in just over a year.
I am not sure what ESPN's game is, but they gave the Big 12 a contract that was by all accounts a hunting license, with the ACC being the biggest target. They may be pulling out the top properties to park them in a better football league, and treat the rest of the ACC as a basketball league with a football annex, basically pricing hoops at $10MM a year and football at $5. The reality for Duke is the number is more like $18 and -$3. If the NACC doesn't have a credible football league, ESPN won't have to put up with Swofford's silly demands for more money.
Assuming no other additions or subtractions, the remaining ACC is a very good basketball league and clearly the 6th best football conference. Adding UConn and Rutgers won't change that either.
The following is all pure opinion on
I think that ESPN is very much aware of their own situation as a business. They are a company that was founded approx 30 years ago now (a little more) whic
ESPN people, I think, know that they can't keep adding channels. The online world, and the streaming world is the direction they've got to go now if they want to reach a wide range of people,
Because, when it comes to the actual business of sports and broadcasting, regional viewership is becoming extremely important.
All of that said, I believe that a year ago, the ACC(motivated by ESPN) simply had the intent of significantly weakening the Big East conference to strenghten it's own BASKETBALL presence on the east coast in competition with the Big East, and at the same time pad their own football conference against the movement occuring at the time. Nobody is telling me that PItt and Cuse were added to the ACC to strenghten the football league.
ESPN interest in weakening the big east would be to avoid the rise of competition in broadcasting in sports, as they've cornered nearly every major broadcasting realm in sports - with the model they created 32 years ago, AND they are very much aware of their business model deficiencies, and what the rise of competition may do to expose it.
I do believe that had Syracuse and UConn been invited to the ACC - we would have gone with Cuse, and the Big East would not have survived as an athletic league, never mind weakening, Buh-bye big east. But UConn got hung up in expansion committee for the ACC b/c of certain committee member's efforts from Chestnut Hill, and the ACC settled on Pitt.
Even still, the big east nearly died, and it appears that the major television networks have uncovered ESPN's weakness in the sports broadcasting world.
We'll see what ESPN comes up with for the Big EAst in September.