So, you don't feel that the academic prestige of the ACC will be enough to retain Florida State, Clemson, and the like? I suppose we'll see. Swofford's idiotic move to add Pittsburgh and Syracuse is coming back to haunt them. That hurt an already damaged fooball product and did little good for their TV contract.
LOLOLOLOL. Academic prestige? Really? That is a distant tertiary factor, barely even a tiebreaker. I firmly believe FSU and Clemson are gone if the offer comes. The dollar difference between the Big 12 and ACC may be as much as $10MM a year when you throw in Tier 3 rights. That is $100 million over the next 10 years. No university can pass up that kind of money. Pitt and Syracuse left for roughly even money compared to the ESPN offer on the table to the Big East.
Furthermore, the ACC, and specifically UNC and either UVA or VTech are likely targets of SEC expansion at some point. Any of those 3 are more valuable to the SEC than Missouri or Texas A&M. UVa and Maryland will always be targets of the B1G too. FSU and Clemson will never be invited to the SEC because of UF and USCe. If FSU and Clemson miss this expansion window, they could be stuck in a shrinking ACC. There is no way they will pass this up.
ESPN has not executed a new deal with the ACC yet despite cutting one with the Big 12 and financing two additions from the exact same conference. There was no rational reason for the Big 12, which has significant more complexity around the Tier 3 rights and inventory, to finish its deal before the ACC, unless ESPN thinks the ACC is about to be raided. If the ACC deal comes in at $14 to $15, where most expect it, then that is a virtual death sentence for the league.
Adding Pitt and Syracuse is looking increasingly like a stupid move by the ACC. The ACC was stuck in a lousy long-term deal and the right move was to merge into the Big East football league and the Big East's pending open negotiation window. A 21 team league that extended up and down the east coast would have been unwieldy, but would have likely gotten a monster deal. Instead, the ACC destabilized the Big East for two mediocre programs that were not capable of moving the revenue needle at all, and also saved the Big 12 by enabling it to easily pluck TCU and WVU. A merger with the Big East could have checkmated the Big 12 and forced them to add lower caliber schools, which may have caused a Texahoma exodus to the Pac 12. The ACC could have knocked out a competitor, the Big 12, and gone back to the market for a new TV deal, Instead, the sharks are circling, and ironically the Big 12 could be the league that takes the first bite.
