ACC

[huskypantz]

The ratings for ABC regional games were always shaky because it's a combined national rating among the 2-3 games. At the very least, the comparison is apples to apples, even if oranges and bananas are left out. ESPN has a lot more data at their fingertips via ESPN3.com views for each team and/or conference by sport.

The ad spend was discussed previously as well (maybe even in this thread). There is no doubt that there's a huge wad of cash waiting to be served to the schools if they choose the playoff route.

 

[Jericho]

bcs is going to a 4 team playoff. 1 of the b12 or acc has to die. teams won't sit in one of those confs win the league at 11-1 and not get a bid to the playoff. they won't be happy, they will move for the bid and for $$. the b12 has the potential to double the $$ the acc would get tv contract wise. the acc can only add a couple more schools possible #'s wise. therefore the b12 has the advantage.

This logic does not make sense. First, there's been no finalization of how the BCS will move forward. It may be a straight 4 team playoff, but many proposals are keeping the possibility of 4 games (the Rose plus two others and the championship) alive. Not to mention, the BCS can't just align four conferences and lock them into a playoff. That's going to be an Antitrust mess. They have to at least give the appearance that other schools have a chance. Finally, if one of the Big 12 or ACC has to die, wouldn't it be the Big 12? Outside of Texas and Oklahoma, does anyone care about the other Big 12 schools? The Big 12 may have a nice TV contract, but isn't that essentially because of Texas and Oklahoma? If they moved to another conference, those TV deals get renegotiated and all of a sudden whatever conference Texas is in gets a lot more money. It's way easier to move Texas and Oklahoma then to move Florida St, Miami, NC, Clemson, GT, Virginia, VT, and Maryland among others.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This logic does not make sense. First, there's been no finalization of how the BCS will move forward. It may be a straight 4 team playoff, but many proposals are keeping the possibility of 4 games (the Rose plus two others and the championship) alive. Not to mention, the BCS can't just align four conferences and lock them into a playoff. That's going to be an Antitrust mess. They have to at least give the appearance that other schools have a chance. Finally, if one of the Big 12 or ACC has to die, wouldn't it be the Big 12? Outside of Texas and Oklahoma, does anyone care about the other Big 12 schools? The Big 12 may have a nice TV contract, but isn't that essentially because of Texas and Oklahoma? If they moved to another conference, those TV deals get renegotiated and all of a sudden whatever conference Texas is in gets a lot more money. It's way easier to move Texas and Oklahoma then to move Florida St, Miami, NC, Clemson, GT, Virginia, VT, and Maryland among others.

You are arguing who should have won the game after we already know the score. I wouldn't have expected the Big 12 to emerge as a winner in conference realignment, but they did. There is not much point about arguing a parallel universe in which they didn't. The ACC, on the other hand, is in deep trouble unless ESPN unilaterally hands over $100 million per year for no reason whatsoever. Are you betting on that happening?

 

[Jericho]

You are arguing who should have won the game after we already know the score. I wouldn't have expected the Big 12 to emerge as a winner in conference realignment, but they did. There is not much point about arguing a parallel universe in which they didn't. The ACC, on the other hand, is in deep trouble unless ESPN unilaterally hands over $100 million per year for no reason whatsoever. Are you betting on that happening?

I swear I'm in some bizarro world. How has the Big 12 "won"? Nothing's happened. You keep talking in absolutes about something that has not happened. About a BCS that has not decided anything. We don't know the score, because, and you can repeat it with me, nothing's happened.

You seem to be under the impression everyone will flock to the Big 12 magnent. But the Big 12 is basically two teams, Oklahoma and Texas. That's my point. If this massive realignment HAS to happen (I don't believe it does), it makes massively more sense to move the two teams that matter from the Big 12 than the ten or so from the ACC that matter. And I still don't see how the Big12 has become so attractive when it lost 4 choice programs in the last year. The same reasons those schools left (it was not money) are the same reasons any school should be wary of joining that conference.

Money will ultimately follow the schools that matter.

 

[Hoophound]

To add to the above, as I understand it, the B12 schools committed all their tv rights for like 10 years. If anyone leaves the conference, they won't be allowed on tv. Basically, the B12 is rock solid. Chuck Neinas is a genius.

 

[frankthetank]

I have yet to see someone that can interpret that data to have it make sense. Our visiting "insider" tripped all over himself trying to explain it. I have posited that the data represents viewership for broadcast network (CBS, ABC, NBC) games only. Otherwise, the SEC would get more viewers on the various Saturday night games than there are total viewers watching television. It is possible that the national ESPN games are included in that number, although the numbers get a little shaky if they are. There is no way the Game Plan games are included.

My understanding is that national Nielsen-rated networks would be included in calculations (which makes sense since the report comes directly from Nielsen). That would include CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, ESPN, ESPN2 and NBC Sports Network. It would not include regional sports networks, the Big Ten Network or ESPN Game Plan games. Regardless, it's about as accurate of information as you're going to receive at a national level.

If you want to see why the bowls are dead and we are going to a playoff, just look at those last 4 numbers. Football is worth twice basketball during the regular season, but the postseason is worth about 1/6 college basketballs. Ratings crater for all but the 2-3 best bowl matchups.

I agree with part of this, although the ad spending disparity is partly because ESPN is now broadcasting the BCS games as opposed to over-the-air Fox, so they can't charge as much. The other important difference is that regular season money is kept by the conferences themselves, whereas the postseason revenue is split. That's why there's such an emphasis on protecting the football regular season (and, whether we agree with it or not, it's at least understandable from a university president standpoint considering how devalued the college basketball regular season has become). It doesn't do the Big Ten and SEC any good if a new postseason system is worth 5 times as much as the current one if (1) they're just splitting that money up among the non-AQ conferences and (2) the value of the regular season, which is revenue that they keep 100% to themselves, goes down on a relative basis. I can tell you for a fact that the EASIEST way to get a college playoff proposal tanked is to suggest a revenue sharing system that looks like the NCAA Tournament credit system. The power conferences absolutely loathe it even though they're getting about 60% of the NCAA Tournament revenue. They legitimately believe that they ought to be receiving 90% of that revenue just like in football.

So, the total value of a new playoff system isn't relevant. Even Jim Delany acknowledges that a playoff system is worth more than the BCS system in terms of a total overall dollar amount. However, what really matters is how the value of the new playoff system is SPLIT. The power conferences want to maintain the exact same 90/10 advantage that they have today. That's where the real fight is in these discussions.

 

[frankthetank]

To add to the above, as I understand it, the B12 schools committed all their tv rights for like 10 years. If anyone leaves the conference, they won't be allowed on tv. Basically, the B12 is rock solid. Chuck Neinas is a genius.

What's on the table is a 6-year grant of rights. That's what Texas is willing to provide. It's better than nothing, but it really isn't long at all when you're talking about conference realignment. By year 3 of that 6-year period, it no longer becomes very cost prohibitive for that grant to be bought out. The Big Ten and Pac-12, in contrast, have grants of rights that run through almost 2030.

 

[huskypantz]

How solid is the grant of rights? We've already seen WVU break their contract with the BE, why can't the grant of rights be similarly broken (with some kind of penalty)?

 

[frankthetank]

How solid is the grant of rights? We've already seen WVU break their contract with the BE, why can't the grant of rights be similarly broken (with some kind of penalty)?

It can be much stronger than a simple exit fee since the conference is assigned the TV rights for each member school for the entire grant of rights period even if that school leaves that conference. For instance, if Penn State tried to leave the Big Ten for the ACC (which obviously wouldn't happen, but we're just using it as an example), the Big Ten would still control all of the TV rights to Penn State's home games until circa 2030 even though PSU isn't a member of the conference any longer. So, the ACC would either have to pay a buyout amount to the Big Ten equal to the value of two decades of PSU TV rights (which in the case of a power school like PSU, could legitimately be in the hundreds of millions of dollars) or the Big Ten would continue selling those PSU games as part of its TV package until circa 2030 (which basically defeats the purpose of the ACC adding PSU in the first place since they can't realize any TV dollars from them).

When you have a very long grant of rights period like the Big Ten or Pac-12, it's extremely powerful since it would be cost prohibitive to pay a buyout amount equal to 10 to 20 years of TV rights for even the average school (much less a PSU type). In the Big 12's case, the 6 year grant of rights can be effective for staving off defections for maybe 3 or 4 years, but it won't be effective at the end of the period. It's fairly typical that schools give up a year or two of TV revenue for switching conferences in normal circumstances, so by year 4 of a 6-year grant of rights period, the cost of a buyout isn't much different than what other conferences have in terms of an exit fee.

At the end of the day, the Big 12 will live because I think Texas wants it to live. However, that doesn't mean that it's desirable if you're already in a stable conference. If the choice is between the Big 12 and Big East, then of course, you choose the Big 12 every time. If the choice is between the Big 12 and the ACC, though, then that's a whole lot different. Believe me - any complaints about Tobacco Road pale in comparison to the iron fist in Austin. Nebraska and Texas A&M aren't football wallflowers and they ran as fast as they could out of the Big 12.

 

[SubbaBub]

The BE exit fee was basically a negotiable IOU that WVU skipped out on.
The B1G made it's teams sign over the deed.

Big lesson learned.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I swear I'm in some bizarro world. How has the Big 12 "won"? Nothing's happened. You keep talking in absolutes about something that has not happened. About a BCS that has not decided anything. We don't know the score, because, and you can repeat it with me, nothing's happened.

You seem to be under the impression everyone will flock to the Big 12 magnent. But the Big 12 is basically two teams, Oklahoma and Texas. That's my point. If this massive realignment HAS to happen (I don't believe it does), it makes massively more sense to move the two teams that matter from the Big 12 than the ten or so from the ACC that matter. And I still don't see how the Big12 has become so attractive when it lost 4 choice programs in the last year. The same reasons those schools left (it was not money) are the same reasons any school should be wary of joining that conference.

Money will ultimately follow the schools that matter.

The Big 12 has a TV contract which makes the ACC's look like a kiddie pool. The Big 12 has WON. It is over. Your opinion or my opinion of two teams or four teams or whatever is irrelevant. There is no point in arguing opinions when the facts are the facts. The Big 12 is not unstable or whatever you think it is. When you throw in Tier 3 rights and the way the Big 12 allocates its games, The Big 12's deal is better than the SEC's, at least for now.

 

[UConnDan97]

I swear I'm in some bizarro world.

Yes, you are. It is referred to as "The ACC Thread on the Boneyard". Welcome, and enjoy the crazy.

 

[whaler11]

The B12 deal is great. Schools like North Carolina aren't giving up throne in the ACC to join though. The NC State Legislature isn't allowing NCSU to go anywhere without UNC. Schools like Virginia are not going to ignore academics and VPI is clearly tied to them after the power play to join the ACC.

Florida State may be in play. Clemson may be interested in dollars. The ACC survives without them. It may be a clear fifth - but its still way ahead if the Big East.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The B12 deal is great. Schools like North Carolina aren't giving up throne in the ACC to join though. The NC State Legislature isn't allowing NCSU to go anywhere without UNC. Schools like Virginia are not going to ignore academics and VPI is clearly tied to them after the power play to join the ACC.

Florida State may be in play. Clemson may be interested in dollars. The ACC survives without them. It may be a clear fifth - but its still way ahead if the Big East.

As far as it concerns UConn - anybody think that if Clemson and Florida State leave that Rutgers and UConn get the call for #13 and #14? If they choose to expand back to 14 or if it's contractually obligated by ESPN to expand back that number.

 

[Dann]

BigTime Sports ‏ @ GSwaim
I was told by the same source tonight that the # ACC should be on full alert for a # Big12 raid. # FSU # Clemson # VaTech # GaTech # Terps

also the iceman spoke on orangebloods. hes a well followed poster there becuase he was right about colorado and other things he was good info on...

 

[whaler11]

Lets catch up when it happens

 

[Dann]

reading this now. interesting.

 

[TRest]

BigTime Sports ‏ @ GSwaim
I was told by the same source tonight that the # ACC should be on full alert for a # Big12 raid. # FSU # Clemson # VaTech # GaTech # Terps

also the iceman spoke on orangebloods. hes a well followed poster there becuase he was right about colorado and other things he was good info on...

Not the iceman!

 

[TRest]

BigTime Sports ‏ @ GSwaim
I was told by the same source tonight that the # ACC should be on full alert for a # Big12 raid. # FSU # Clemson # VaTech # GaTech # Terps

also the iceman spoke on orangebloods. hes a well followed poster there becuase he was right about colorado and other things he was good info on...

Isn't Swaim universally acknowledged as a poorly informed asshat on expansion? Even if ACC loses 2, why not just stay at 12?

 

[CTMike]

reading this now. interesting.

If that's at all correct, it makes me want to puke. The rich get richer and everyone else fights for scraps.

 

[Dann]

Isn't Swaim universally acknowledged as a poorly informed asshat on expansion? Even if ACC loses 2, why not just stay at 12?

was just posting it to add to the thread. you don't stay at 12 becuase you need more tv markets for more $$. losing a fsu/clem to the b12 would make the acc contract like $13mil a year per team. you then add ruty/uconn or whoever your picks are to get that # back up to $15mil a year.

The last thing the acc wants is for the b12 to take only 2 schools(2 of the best acc schools) and then for the BIG to make a move east. When southern schools leave the acc, all that league can hand its hat on would be being the east coast nyc/dc conf. the minute the BIG comes it thats gone.

I know its just my wild opinion but the $$ difference and the new playoff coming will just be to much for some acc schools to pass up. that will lead to big changes and as result uconn is a hope and prayer that the BIG is interested otherwise were in a acc thats left out most years of a bcs playoff. that waterdowned acc is still better than the new big east though becuase of rivals and name schools and the other sports being good. the issue is $$ at that point.

 

[TRest]

Not the iceman!

You made me go over and see that orangebloods is a premium site for the iceman's dropping of knowledge. Go ahead and cut and paste it here, he isn't a publisher for scout or rivals, his postings aren't premium material. Or just summarize please.

 

[Dann]

If that's at all correct, it makes me want to puke. The rich get richer and everyone else fights for scraps.

i know its hard to swallow. under that, if notre dame or byu ever puts it together and wins a ship they would take home the full 90mil for themselves having no conf to split it with. crazy. it makes me think that if that did ever happen, maybe uconn football would atleast explore going indy instead of the new big east. then ppl will say how do you fill a schedule? well its possible. if uconn kept its other sports in the big east we could(becuase we know the BE commish is a rtard) form a way that we play a couple new big east schools a year in fball for the return of keeping our high profile bball and other sports in the league. we can stay competitive and have a good deal with sny for most games and a couple a year make espn and maybe abc. that one year we have a 12-0 run and beat a couple good teams we get a bid to the playoff and make a ton of $$ and wala....

 

[Dann]

You made me go over and see that orangebloods is a premium site for the iceman's dropping of knowledge. Go ahead and cut and paste it here, he isn't a publisher for scout or rivals, his postings aren't premium material. Or just summarize please.

Originally posted by = Ice Man =:
I don't know anything about the Big XII officially reaching out to Georgia Tech, but I know a lot of unofficial communication has taken place with a number of schools (tire kicking if you will), and Georgia Tech has indicated they're not interested in leaving the ACC. But, I'm not aware of anything formal being discussed or offered.

Georgia Tech is an interesting school, b/c though they're located in a talent rich state full of football tradition, they're more interested in being an academic elite than an athletic elite. They really truly love that they rub elbows with Duke, UNC, Wake, and UVA. Being a power program just isn't that important to them. If it was, they wouldn't have the highest student-athlete entrance requirements of any public university in the country, and likely higher than most of the AQ private schools as well.

The internal consensus is even if Florida State & Clemson left, they'd stay in the ACC, b/c they'd prefer to play a lower brand of sports against like-minded institutions than to play at the highest levels of collegiate sports in an academically inferior conference. I don't think they or the Big Ten have any interest in each other, but that's the only conference I could see them leaving for, and even then, I think it would take a package that included UVA and UNC for them to leave.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over GA Tech not being interested. I think most of us love the idea of them b/c they're in an SEC state. But, the reality is, they're a horrible basketball school, have lukewarm fan support, and their football success has largely come from running gimmick offenses. In a weak ACC, they look pretty decent, but in a quality conference, they'd be a 5-7 win team.


In your opinion what schools will be added to the Big 12? FSU? Clemson? Louisville? Miami? BYU? And, order and time? THANKS!
There's no way to know for sure. I really think Louisville is a shoo-in unless someone huge pops up to take their place. But, by shoo-in, I'm talking about ONLY if the Big XII expands. And, the Big XII will not expand if there isn't a power program added. Nobody wants another situation where all the talent is in one division, ala the old Big XII. Right now, Louisville is the only program that the Big XII likes that they know they can get.

BYU is a backup to the backup to the backup plan. They missed their shot, and will only get another one if all 4 wheels fall off the cart. As for FSU, Clemson, Miami, and anyone else from the ACC, it's all going to come down to money and what kind of package the Big XII can offer......and none of that will be known until the Big XII and ACC TV contracts are finalized AND the Big XII hires a new commissioner.

There are simply too many variables up in the air to know whether the Big XII expands or not, and who they expand with if they do. If they do expand, you can count Louisville in. But, if I were Louisville, I'd be rooting hard for Florida State & Clemson to jump in, b/c the Big XII isn't expanding with Louisville and come combination of BYU, Rutgers, and Cincinnati. The North/East Division would be horrendous, and would create another lopsided Big XII.

 

[TRest]

Thanks. The iceman actually makes sense. I will never doubt him again.