A few points:
(1) I still continue to perplexed as to how many people are falling for supposed Big 12 information that is originating from WEST VIRGINIA (repeat: WEST VIRGINIA THAT'S NOT A MEMBER OF THE BIG 12 YET AND CAN'T VOTE ON EXPANSION), other than they are so biased against the ACC that they are projecting their hopes into a belief that FSU and Clemson will leave. When there is information that originating from Texas regarding the Big 12, then I'll listen.
(2) Even if FSU and Clemson going to the Big 12 were a possibility, university presidents ultimately aren't that stupid. Remember the old adage of being "penny wise and pound foolish". Could the Big 12 be receiving a larger amount of TV dollars in the short term than the ACC? Sure. Do you think these university presidents have collective amnesia where they forgot that the Big 12 almost died TWICE in the past two years simply because one school (Texas) flirts a little bit? I don't think so. Remember that you had schools like Kansas asking whether they could join the Big East a couple of years ago. A new TV contract doesn't make everything hunky dory when you're looking at the long-term (and a 6-year assignment of TV rights is NOT long-term in college conference speak). I'm someone that pointed out in the very beginning (when the Big Ten was looking to expand) how important TV rights are to conference realignment when most fans just thought geography and rivalries mattered (which is how my blog ended up getting so widely read), yet now it feels like it's gone in the other direction where there's a belief that's *all* that schools care about. That simply isn't true. Otherwise, schools would just jump around every time that the latest big TV contract is signed. The most important factor in choosing a conference (even over TV rights) is STABILITY. That's something that the ACC has and the Big 12 simply won't ever have because the Big 12 is so dependent upon a single school (Texas).
(3) There is only one power conference where ESPN owns 100% of the TV rights to: the ACC. Repeat: the ACC is the ONLY power conference that ESPN owns ALL of the TV rights from top to bottom. I'm sure there are plenty of people here that believe that ESPN had a hand in the ACC raiding the Big East this past year. If you believe that to be true, how is it in the best interests of ESPN to nickel and dime the ACC in its contract renegotiation to the point where its most valuable football school (FSU) would leave? Think about the big picture. Maybe the ACC ultimately won't make more than the Big 12, but ESPN is going to pay enough to ensure that no ACC school is going to leave for the Big 12 (or at least that it's not going to be about a lack of TV money). Whatever you think of the people in Bristol, they are the BEST in the business on the financial side of the house and they know when they need to pay up (and alternatively, when they don't need to pay up). This is one of those instances where they know that they'll need to pay up because they have a larger interest in protecting the ACC over ANY other college conference.
In case you are wondering, I have no dog in the ACC hunt at all. Duke is my least favorite sports team (college or pro) anywhere, so I'd personally love it if they were relegated to the Southern Conference. However, it bothers me a lot that a ridiculous rumor has been getting so much traction where biases against the ACC or for the Big 12 have been coloring people's perceptions.
This is the argument of a football fan, not a business person. The Big 12 has granted TV rights for 12 years. It doesn't get more stable than that. One of those schools leaves, they play for free until the end of the rights' grant. The ACC may or may not have a $20 million separation fee, which is very manageable considering the revenue gap between the Big 12 and ACC. The ACC is only as stable as the last offer to leave. I believe FSU and someone else are going to get an offer fairly soon, possibly before 6/30, and then we will learn just how (un)stable the ACC really is.
Do you understand how much money it would cost ESPN to bridge that revenue gap? 14 schools X $8MM/School = $112 million PER YEAR. Do you think ESPN has any interest in unilaterally increasing its costs by $112 million per year? The ACC is locked into a long-term deal with ESPN that ESPN does not have to touch. ESPN already destroyed one league to save money, it will have no remorse for destroying another.
The ACC, more than any league, is bifurcated in terms of the value of the various programs. There are several, such as FSU, VTech, UNC, UVa, and Clemson, that justify major dollars on their own in any league. There are others, such as Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Maryland and Syracuse, which could have value in the right conference, but as stand alone programs and without historical rivalries, they are not that valuable. Then there are schools like Wake Forest, Duke, Miami and BC which are virtually worthless to TV and are dragging down the value of the rest of the programs.
Miami football gets way more press than it deserves, in my opinion because so many of today's sportscasters grew up during an era when Miami was dominant. Old timers don't think twice about Miami and neither do most younger fans. Miami may draw 25k or so of actual fans in the seats for any but the most marquee matchups, and the basketball program draws about 4k. Duke basketball is an outlier among the bottom 4. That program has a lot of value, but not enough to save a football program that may be the least followed of any major conference program.
If you were to start this league from scratch, as a TV exec, you would take the top 5, add GT, NCSU and Maryland, and include Duke as a basketball only. The rest are dead weight within the construct of the ACC. Pitt is not nearly as interesting without WVU, ND, and its budding rivalries with Louisville and Cincinnati. Pitt basketball without a New York City pipeline is worthless, and I expect Jamie Dixon to be gone within a year. Syracuse is not that interesting as a far northern outpost in a dying region of the country. In the right league, both schools could be major assets. I don't think the ACC is that league, particularly after it gets gutted.
