ACC

[UConnDan97]

close to what i was in the end thinking also
but lville would be in the b12 for starters. see what im saying tho, its clearly the 5th best fball league that will get left out of the big 4 playoff. yes its a decent home for uconn but fball wise we need to aim higher. other sports wise thats great fwiw...in the end thats great compared to the nnbe but its still not a great ending in the overall grand look at the landscape.

It's funny; that conference might be the 5th best football league, but they would be absolutely #1 in mens bball, womens bball, mens soccer, womens soccer, field hockey, and I'm sure other sports that I can't think of at 11:30 at night. A unified eastern seaboard conference would dominate most sports that people care about, and would only fail to dominate football because some of eastern teams are in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, etc.).

 

[Dann]

It's funny; that conference might be the 5th best football league, but they would be absolutely #1 in mens bball, womens bball, mens soccer, womens soccer, field hockey, and I'm sure other sports that I can't think of at 11:30 at night. A unified eastern seaboard conference would dominate most sports that people care about, and would only fail to dominate football because some of eastern teams are in the SEC (Florida, Georgia, etc.).

besides fball in this "could be" league my other beef is that when i think of uconn i think of a big public state school #1 type feel. that league is more private/non main state schools. unc is nice to be with but i would dream of a league where uconn was with teams like uva/md/psu/unc/fsu/wvu/ind/tosu/mich/msu etc...

 

[auggie22]

besides fball in this "could be" league my other beef is that when i think of uconn i think of a big public state school #1 type feel. that league is more private/non main state schools. unc is nice to be with but i would dream of a league where uconn was with teams like uva/md/psu/unc/fsu/wvu/ind/tosu/mich/msu etc...

i wouldn't worry too much about that. there is no way that unc ends up with the acc leftovers. it is my belief that uva and unc are 1a and b in the big ten's plans. umd is 2, and throw a dart for the 16th spot. let's hope the dart lands on us.

 

[Dann]

i wouldn't worry too much about that. there is no way that unc ends up with the acc leftovers. it is my belief that uva and unc are 1a and b in the big ten's plans. umd is 2, and throw a dart for the 16th spot. let's hope the dart lands on us.

i think unc is a gem in either the b10 or sec eyes but getting them to think fball and give up on duke/bball is the reason they are not talked about moving. i agree that at some point with the acc dying, unc may eventually go somewhere. if u take unc out of that future possible acc, then it looks alot worse for every sport. unc is a gem on the field, off and tv wise no doubt.

 

[frankthetank]

There are five major conferences left. The idea that there can only be four is the product of your head and not based in any kind of reality - there are five. There will be five. The ACC and Big 12 are two of them.

If any of those conferences choses to expand again, the Big East will almost certainly be damaged further. The individual teams that are plucked from it will benefit, but the conference's future arc is downward.

Hopefully, we'll stay pretty enough to matter when the time comes.

Correct. The assumption that 4 16-school superconferences is appealing to lots of fans because it seems so neat and simple at a macro-level, but the issue is that conference realignment is really the culmination of tons of messy micro-level decisions. Think about how much easy money was just sitting there for the Big Ten and Pac-12 to expand for conference championship games, yet they both waited two decades to expand to 12 to create them. There's no such thing as a superconference commissioner that's going to dictate that there needs to be 4 16-team leagues. not the least of which superconferences almost mandate that they add Texas and/or Notre Dame, both of whom have shown time and time again that control (Texas with its own conference of the Big 12, ND with its own independence) even more than money and such control is impossible to have in massive leagues.

Also, there's one rule in conference realignment: ALWAYS rolls downhill. If the ACC gets poached, then they'll poach the Big East. In turn, if the Big East gets poached, then they'll poach MWC/C-USA. The pecking order never changes no matter how damaged a higher level conference might be. Every single time a lower level conference thinks it can leap over a higher level conference, that lower level conference gets slapped back to the stone age. In 2010, the Big East had dreams of getting Big 12 schools like Kansas and in 2011, actually thought that a new ESPN contract could help them lure ACC schools such as Maryland. Look at what happened. Similarly, C-USA and Mountain West people thought that they could benefit from the demise of the Big East, but then they got smacked around by the Big East themselves.

As a result, hoping that the ACC gets raided is playing with some dangerous fire. (To be clear, the Clemson/FSU rumors are complete BS. They are absolute garbage. If you want legit Big 12 news, look to Texas instead of not-even-Big 12-members-yet West Virginia, and there's *nothing* coming out of Texas.) IMHO, the ACC is only expanding if Notre Dame is involved. There's no such hope to have a UConn and Rutgers combo. Instead, it's going to be between UConn OR Rutgers for that last spot, and that's assuming that ND gives up independence (which for various reasons I'd put at about less than 1% chance, so you might be better off hoping that you win another MegaMillions jackpot and you can fully fund your athletic program by yourself). If it's on-the-field/court success, then sure, it's a no-brainer that UConn gets taken over Rutgers. However, if conference realignment has taught you anything, it's that on-the-field/court success isn't the only factor. In fact, it might actually be pretty far down on the totem pole compared to markets, academics, brand name, history, tradition and politics (e.g. someone might fight to keep you out of the ACC *cough* BC *cough*). Just be careful for what you wish for.

 

[frankthetank]

As a general matter (and I say this as someone that hates Duke more than any other school anywhere), waaaaaay too many people mistakenly believe that the lack of on-the-field success for the ACC translates into a lack of power for the ACC off-the-field. Nothing could be further from the truth: the ACC is right up there with the Big Ten and SEC in terms of decision-making power in college sports. Anyone foolish enough to believe that Florida State and Clemson are going to the Big 12 with a bigger TV contract was probably foolish enough to think that the Big East could have gotten Maryland and BC last year with a bigger TV contract. Strong conferences are composed of strong institutions, NOT strong football teams. There's a big-time difference. Take away Texas and Oklahoma and there's not a single school in the Big 12 that the Big Ten or SEC would rather take over *anyone* in the ACC besides *maybe* Wake Forest. That seems to indicate to me that the ACC top-to-bottom is in a much stronger long-term institutional position (and long-term stability trumps short-term dollars, even in an inherently money-crazed world). You're telling me that Maryland refused overtures from the Big Ten and Virginia Tech refused overtures from the SEC, yet the Big 12 (which any university president that doesn't have amnesia will recall was on its deathbed in September) can now poach its most valuable football school of Florida State? I guess you can't stop the rumor mill, but I wish more people would just apply the common sense smell test before getting too excited.

 

[businesslawyer]

i refuse to let this thread die. it put the BY on the map of other fanbases. b12/sec/acc/b10 boardd all had links to this and chats around it on boards. its great for uconn that other fanbases were coming here from a perception standpoint. shows that were atleast in the conversation as compared to 10 years ago...

bottom line is that 4 confs are going to eb the big boys no matter the size. only 1 of the acc or b12 can be that right now, becuase the other will get torn apart by the 3 safe confs(b10/sec/pac) there are only 2 or 3 schools in those 3 confs that would consider moving around. that psu/mizzu/uk. everyone else in those 3 aren't moving.

southern acc schools feel any of cuse/pitt/ruty/uconn aren't enough both on the fball field and in a raise tv $$ wise. can't argue that imo they are right. if the b12 pulls a death trigger, things will happen quick afterwards. byu is a national team, they bring tv $$. lville is at worst a even add $$ wise and good on the field/court. fsu/clem would add to the $$ and on the field. among other adds so the b12 would defacto become that 4th conf.

the only way for the acc to stop that is go big. not becuase its cute to have the most teams, but to be able to raise its tv $$ by so much that it makes a good case for southern acc schools to stay. the only way to do that is grab all of nyc prox and nd and possibly psu(the dream eastern league attempt). i know its a wild thought but that the only way the acc will be the 4th conf. if they did make that move happen somehow, then tex/tt/ok/okst would eventually pull the plug on the b12 and then the pac/sec will have a fieldday.

if the b12 makes its move, uconn is basically in the acc, but its a 5th whell fball conf. imo at this point that is ok but not the best. it beats the crap out of the nnbe but its barley alive fball wise. its great fro bball and other sports and put us with all the rivals we want to be with. but this league could get more watered down from the sec/big10 adding teams which puts us in a crapy spot once again.

I beg you, please stop talking about the ACC getting Penn State. It makes it hard to take anything else you write seriously.

 

[Dann]

I beg you, please stop talking about the ACC getting Penn State. It makes it hard to take anything else you write seriously.

oh come on bl, u know i come to this board for pure fun to talk con theory and make up crazy conf's that in the end f bcu.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

As a general matter (and I say this as someone that hates Duke more than any other school anywhere), waaaaaay too many people mistakenly believe that the lack of on-the-field success for the ACC translates into a lack of power for the ACC off-the-field. Nothing could be further from the truth: the ACC is right up there with the Big Ten and SEC in terms of decision-making power in college sports. Anyone foolish enough to believe that Florida State and Clemson are going to the Big 12 with a bigger TV contract was probably foolish enough to think that the Big East could have gotten Maryland and BC last year with a bigger TV contract. Strong conferences are composed of strong institutions, NOT strong football teams. There's a big-time difference. Take away Texas and Oklahoma and there's not a single school in the Big 12 that the Big Ten or SEC would rather take over *anyone* in the ACC besides *maybe* Wake Forest. That seems to indicate to me that the ACC top-to-bottom is in a much stronger long-term institutional position (and long-term stability trumps short-term dollars, even in an inherently money-crazed world). You're telling me that Maryland refused overtures from the Big Ten and Virginia Tech refused overtures from the SEC, yet the Big 12 (which any university president that doesn't have amnesia will recall was on its deathbed in September) can now poach its most valuable football school of Florida State? I guess you can't stop the rumor mill, but I wish more people would just apply the common sense smell test before getting too excited.

Maryland didn't refuse overtures from the Big 10 and Virginia Tech didn't refuse overtures from the SEC. If either institution got an offer from those respective conferences, they would be gone. It is ridiculous to think FSU will accept $7MM less than Iowa State for the next TEN YEARS just out of loyalty. The ACC is locked into a long-term deal that will put it a lot closer to the Big East and even MWC in terms of TV revenue than to the Pac 12, Big 10, SEC or Big 12. If ANY of the other majors comes sniffing around, the ACC schools will head for the exits.

I know you write a lot about this stuff, but some of your assertions are just silly.

I EXPECT FSU, VTech and 1 or 2 more to join the Big 12, which would trigger UNC and probably UVa to the SEC given the SEC won't take a team in its existing footprint but would love to have the two of the richest and fastest growing southern states under its umbrella. The Big 10 seems content where it is, but may give Maryland a look. And despite what many think, Notre Dame is not enough of a white knight for the ACC to stop these moves once they start.

I have always said that the ACC's raid of the Big East was one of the stupidest moves the ACC schools could have made because the ACC is still locked into that terrible long-term deal with ESPN. The smart move would have been for the ACC to merge into the Big East and open up the combined league for bid to the networks. They would have made a killing. But they didn't do that, picked off Syracuse and Pitt which was the equivalent of throwing the boomerang from Road Warrior up in the air. That thing has turned around, is razor sharp, and is going right for the ACC's head.

Pretty much the only good thing the Big East has going for it is that there aren't any teams left that the majors would want to steal, so they are going to go after the ACC now.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Maryland didn't refuse overtures from the Big 10 and Virginia Tech didn't refuse overtures from the SEC. If either institution got an offer from those respective conferences, they would be gone. It is ridiculous to think FSU will accept $7MM less than Iowa State for the next TEN YEARS just out of loyalty. The ACC is locked into a long-term deal that will put it a lot closer to the Big East and even MWC in terms of TV revenue than to the Pac 12, Big 10, SEC or Big 12. If ANY of the other majors comes sniffing around, the ACC schools will head for the exits.

I know you write a lot about this stuff, but some of your assertions are just silly.

I EXPECT FSU, VTech and 1 or 2 more to join the Big 12, which would trigger UNC and probably UVa to the SEC given the SEC won't take a team in its existing footprint but would love to have the two of the richest and fastest growing southern states under its umbrella. The Big 10 seems content where it is, but may give Maryland a look. And despite what many think, Notre Dame is not enough of a white knight for the ACC to stop these moves once they start.

I have always said that the ACC's raid of the Big East was one of the stupidest moves the ACC schools could have made because the ACC is still locked into that terrible long-term deal with ESPN. The smart move would have been for the ACC to merge into the Big East and open up the combined league for bid to the networks. They would have made a killing. But they didn't do that, picked off Syracuse and Pitt which was the equivalent of throwing the boomerang from Road Warrior up in the air. That thing has turned around, is razor sharp, and is going right for the ACC's head.

Pretty much the only good thing the Big East has going for it is that there aren't any teams left that the majors would want to steal, so they are going to go after the ACC now.

I think you are spot on with this assessment. I honestly don't think the Big East has any more schools left that the other conferences would expand for. We may still end up in the ACC at some point but I doubt that FSU, Clemson, and 2 of the 4 VA and NC schools would still be there by the time we joined. Once that new Big 12 deal is finalized I don't think FSU or Clemson could justify turning down an invite to that league if offered.

 

[Marty Jackson]

the problem is that won't happen. if the acc losses fsu/clem to the b12, then the acc becomes the league that gets torn apart. the sec will look for a va and nc team(vt/ncst) most likely. the b10 will look for big eastern publics like uvs/md and so on...the acc if fsu/clem go becomes the 5th league thats like the old BE. uconn/ruty/cuse/pitt/bc/duke/wake are the only teams that are for sure in that league. thats a horrible fball league compared to the big 4 then...

Where's Miami in that scenario....

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I think you are spot on with this assessment. I honestly don't think the Big East has any more schools left that the other conferences would expand for. We may still end up in the ACC at some point but I doubt that FSU, Clemson, and 2 of the 4 VA and NC schools would still be there by the time we joined. Once that new Big 12 deal is finalized I don't think FSU or Clemson could justify turning down an invite to that league if offered.

I could see Clemson and Florida State going to the Big12 if the money is right.

I could see Virginia Tech and North Carolina State going to the SEC.

I could see Maryland and Virginia going to the Big10.

I can't see North Carolina leaving the ACC where they are the the feature program and they have the best college basketball rivalry with Duke. UNC and Duke are the ACC. Then again, money talks - but I just don't see them leaving.

Predicted future ACC - I would love this to be the outcome too btw.

Boston College
Syracuse
Rutgers
Pitt
UConn
North Carolina
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Miami
Louisville
Cincinnati

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The TV revenue gap between the majors and the ACC is going to be at least $7MM per year. Whether it is FSU or Clemson or UNC or Virginia, the only thing stopping them from joining one of the majors is the lack of an invitation. The ACC will be lucky to be a league in a year.

The worst part of Pitt's and Syracuse's betrayal is that their move set in motion a series of events that will result in the ACC's own destruction. If they had just held tight, the Big East would have been fine, and likely absorbed the ACC eventually.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The TV revenue gap between the majors and the ACC is going to be at least $7MM per year. Whether it is FSU or Clemson or UNC or Virginia, the only thing stopping them from joining one of the majors is the lack of an invitation. The ACC will be lucky to be a league in a year.

The worst part of Pitt's and Syracuse's betrayal is that their move set in motion a series of events that will result in the ACC's own destruction. If they had just held tight, the Big East would have been fine, and likely absorbed the ACC eventually.

Destruction of the ACC? Even if they didn't add Pitt and Cuse how would that have prevented them from being raided? Even if 6 potential schools leave (VT,UNC,NC State, FSU, Clemson,Virginia) this conference is still significantly better than the current Big East. I don't see this is a bad landing spot at all.

Predicted future ACC - I would love this to be the outcome too btw.

Boston College
Syracuse
Rutgers
Pitt
UConn
North Carolina (sub in Maryland if you want)
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Miami
Louisville
Cincinnati

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC's problem is their terrible, 10 year TV deal with ESPN. It puts them at a permanent disadvantage to the other leagues. There is no reason for ESPN to renegotiate that deal. They are better off throwing a few extra dollars at the SEC or Big 12 and helping them to raid the top teams from the ACC than they would be upgrading the whole league's contract.

If the ACC loses its top 6 teams, it is not an upgrade from the NNBE, and there would be no reason for any Big East team to join and lock into that TV deal, which ESPN could likely unilaterally reduce anyway for departing programs. Miami, Wake, Duke, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and whoever is not an upgrade over the NNBE.

The ACC TV deal was always the problem, and why I thought that the ACC would be better off merging into the Big East than raiding it. Why Pitt and Syracuse were stupid enough to leave, and why the ACC was stupid enough to take them, we will never know. If the Big East took in the 12 ACC teams, they could have taken the combined league to the open market. Now we will never know what deal that league would have gotten. Instead, we will have two leagues that are shells after getting gutted.

 

[Dann]

Where's Miami in that scenario....

they either get left behind or go with fsu somewhere. but the private vs public relationship down there prob isn't enough for them to go with fsu tot he b12.

i'm glad i'm not the only one who thinks these things about the acc, it really seems like its going to get ripped apart. i still feel though that the NYC theory is the only thing that could save this conf.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

If the ACC loses its top 6 teams, it is not an upgrade from the NNBE, and there would be no reason for any Big East team to join and lock into that TV deal, which ESPN could likely unilaterally reduce anyway for departing programs. Miami, Wake, Duke, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and whoever is not an upgrade over the NNBE.

For current on the field success, maybe.

In every other aspect, definitely not. Miami alone makes that group of schools better than the NNBE.

 

[epark88]

Another possible twist for the ACC that hasn't gotten much pub yet:

In the event that the nBe signs with another network for 2013, the ACC would then become the runt of the litter at ESPN. As such, they could be asked (read: coerced) to play more Wednesday/Friday/Sunday night games than they ever bargained for, and ESPNU just might become the official home of ACC football.

Would be kinda fascinating (okay, hilarious) to see that dynamic play out. Forget MACtion, how's about a little Wednesday night ACCtion?...

 

[Fishy]

This board has never been more delusional.

We should have the ACC's "problems".

If they're duck*ed, we're dead and buried.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

This board has never been more delusional.

We should have the ACC's "problems".

If they're duck*ed, we're dead and buried.

Was thinking the same thing.

The ACC's worst case scenario - includes UConn.

This also happens to be UConn's best case scenario.

 

[Dann]

Was thinking the same thing.

The ACC's worst case scenario - includes UConn.

This also happens to be UConn's best case scenario.

false

uconns best situation is if the b16 does want to go east and we happen to get a look.

 

[Fishy]

I hear you - the same people that admonish some of us for not buying into the new conference want us to swallow that the ACC has somehow set in motion its own destruction.

Hell, they already destroyed us and if their TV contract is that bad, wait for the s*** sandwich the Big East is about to be served.

 

[Dann]

the b12 wants blood right now. tex and crew are pissed that the sec got atm. now the whole sec has a ticket to texas recruiting. the only way for tex and crew to get back at the sec is for them to paoch fsu/clem and open up the floodgates to southeast recruiting. the b12 and sec are quietly having a arms race.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I hear you - the same people that admonish some of us for not buying into the new conference want us to swallow that the ACC has somehow set in motion its own destruction.

Hell, they already destroyed us and if their TV contract is that bad, wait for the s*** sandwich the Big East is about to be served.

I didn't realize it was a contest, or that because I believe the Big East will still make a few dollars on the next TV deal that I am not allowed to point out what is obvious to just about everyone. It is not some tremendous insight to note that the ACC has some serious membership issues right now, and our visiting "insider", who hates me and has been cyber stalking me, just agreed with pretty much everything I have been saying here in the Big 12 thread.

We should have a separate board for Whaler, yourself, a few others, where you can relentlessly trash the Big East, point out how it is worse to every other conference, including the Sun Belt, and throw a pity party for the demise of UConn's athletic program.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

the b12 wants blood right now. tex and crew are pissed that the sec got atm. now the whole sec has a ticket to texas recruiting. the only way for tex and crew to get back at the sec is for them to paoch fsu/clem and open up the floodgates to southeast recruiting. the b12 and sec are quietly having a arms race.

It's not the Big 12, it's ESPN. ESPN saw this arms race building and also saw its rights fees skyrocketing. I can't be the first person who noticed that the right move for the ACC was to merge into the Big East and go to another network or split the media rights. ESPN saw the same fact pattern, played out the Game Theory, and realized they would be better off destroying the Big East and the ACC because that would enable them to pay fewer teams the top level rights fees.

So ESPN went to the ACC and offered them $1-2MM extra per school to take Syracuse and Pitt, which effectively gutted the Big East. At the time, I said that was a stupid move for the ACC, they should have gotten ESPN to get them to $18-20MM/school/year or it was a mistake to raid the Big East. I got shouted down on this board, but it turns out I was 100% right. Not only did the ACC get peanuts for destroying the Big East, but they couldn't even get ESPN to sign a new deal with them. The Big 12, which had bigger membership changes in the interim, has already gotten a spanking new contract with jaw-dropping revenue increases, and a structure that is very expansion friendly. ESPN cut this deal in months with the Big 12 yet has not renegotiated the ACC deal yet.

At $20-25MM/school/year, Louisville and Cincinnati are not the likely targets for Big 12 expansion, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and VTech are. It is also worth noting that Mike Slive had said he could get to 16 teams very quickly, and the SEC is still re-working their deal. I suspect that once it is resolved, UNC and either VTech or UVa are gone. ESPN has not re-signed the ACC deal because they know the membership of that conference is about to go through a big change. The Big East and ACC got played by ESPN, and both are going to be road kill.

I get no joy out of this outcome, because like most of you, see that there is going to be a gigantic revenue gap between those in the Top 4 leagues and those in the rest. UConn will never be able to keep good coaches or maintain success like it did the last 25 years. That sun is setting forever. It makes me angrier because idiots like Swofford who thought they were players were really the played, and created this situation.