AAC upcoming TV deal will have huge ramifications for UConn, league

[UConnJim]

Why do my professional credentials matter but nobody else’s? We’ve been talking about this stuff for years on the CR board it’s pretty clear at this point who knows what they are talking about and who doesn’t. I priced and negotiated way bigger deals than the AAC for a long time.

This is a simple equation - the rights fees go up when there are multiple competitors. We know from last go round there weren’t any other serious bidders. We had these same discussions the last go round and talked pumped up NBC (lol - they were going to have AAC/Notre Dame doubleheaders on OTA NBC in one ongoing fantasy).

People throw out AMAZON without even thinking about what it would mean for Amazon to own the rights. Amazon doesn’t currently have any ability to produce the games. Now could they build it? Could they hire someone to do it? Sure - they can do whatever they want - but the idea that Amazon is going to build out an arm to do live sports production for the AAC seems a bit far fetched.

Amazon has streamed someone else’s NFL production. They bought 20 EPL games. They are like a third of the growth of the S&P 500 YTD. They have a huge scope that is highly focused on huge emerging markets all over the planet - the AAC is small potatoes with tiny regional fanbases outside of UConn basketball.

It’s easy to call for 4-5x the money for the next deal, but other than throwing out some real long shots like Amazon nobody has come up with the rabbit that ESPN is going to chase.

As I mentioned previously in the thread, there are 2 legitimate conventional bidders, CBS and AT&T Warner Media. Personally, based on all the moves we have seen recently, I would think that CBS is a logical bidder for AAC media rights. They could just buy rights from ESPN like they did last contract, but they may want more content. CBS has some SEC football games, but on any given Saturday, CBS has 1 to 2 slots open for football at either noon and 7/8 PM or both. They can throw the rest of the games on CBS Sports Network and/or allow the schools to sell more game like to SNY. As for basketball, CBS could show games and they could share content with their NCAA basketball tournament partner, AT&T Turner Media (TBS, TNT, TruTV) to show some games.

The streaming companies are a complete unknown as to what they are interested in doing, although we do have an Amazon exec comment on college sports rights that was highlighted in a separate thread. Will they bid? I don't think this round, but I think they will be bidding in the future on college sports rights.

On the comment that the streaming companies like Amazon don't currently have the ability to produce games. People made the argument that Amazon, Netflix, and Hulu were just streaming other people's content and content was king. Then they all started producing original content and some of it is pretty good. If they want college sports rights, they will build the capability to produce it. I think ESPN learned this lesson when the Big 1o Network started producing games.

 

[JMick]

PS: Protests need to start happening at ESPN headquarters by UCONN fans and students demanding a change.

Can we create an award for stupidest post of the day? Because I really want to give this post some sort of award.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Can we create an award for stupidest post of the day? Because I really want to give this post some sort of award.

How about just don't show up in Bristol? Or spend some more of your time creating the award and doing a Livestream of your presentation?

 

[whaler11]

As I mentioned previously in the thread, there are 2 legitimate conventional bidders, CBS and AT&T Warner Media. Personally, based on all the moves we have seen recently, I would think that CBS is a logical bidder for AAC media rights. They could just buy rights from ESPN like they did last contract, but they may want more content. CBS has some SEC football games, but on any given Saturday, CBS has 1 to 2 slots open for football at either noon and 7/8 PM or both. They can throw the rest of the games on CBS Sports Network and/or allow the schools to sell more game like to SNY. As for basketball, CBS could show games and they could share content with their NCAA basketball tournament partner, AT&T Turner Media (TBS, TNT, TruTV) to show some games.

The streaming companies are a complete unknown as to what they are interested in doing, although we do have an Amazon exec comment on college sports rights that was highlighted in a separate thread. Will they bid? I don't think this round, but I think they will be bidding in the future on college sports rights.

On the comment that the streaming companies like Amazon don't currently have the ability to produce games. People made the argument that Amazon, Netflix, and Hulu were just streaming other people's content and content was king. Then they all started producing original content and some of it is pretty good. If they want college sports rights, they will build the capability to produce it. I think ESPN learned this lesson when the Big 1o Network started producing games.

CBS OTA is going to go against ESPN/ABC/Fox primetime with AAC football? The affiliates would revolt.

CBS Sportsnet isn’t even a rated network. CBS has never shown any interest in trying to compete with it. They have their military academies and what they buy off the scrap heap.

I’m sure CBS will try and keep the small basketball package they have but they don’t even have anywhere to put the volume to buy anything more than they have in the past. Those Turner outlets other than TruTv get audiences that destroy AAC numbers by just showing syndicated re-runs. A Big Bang Theory rerun gets 5x what an AAC game would get on TNT or TBS.

I said that Amazon could build whatever they want - they are going to build it for the AAC? What little they have done has been in the much deeper end of the pool. They might run the whole world by 2030 but we are talking about the next deal.

 

[whaler11]

Live sporting events are the exact opposite of the streaming business model.

Netflix has been cannibalizing cable in two ways.

1. They changed ‘tv’ to something that isn’t built around a schedule.
2. They invested in a huge library of permanent content that is always new to some set of users that doesn’t expire.

Live sports are tied to a schedule and have zero value the second the final whistle blows.

I don’t see it as the slam dunk people claim it is.

 

[Guapo]

Live sporting events are the exact opposite of the streaming business model.

Netflix has been cannibalizing cable in two ways.

1. They changed ‘tv’ to something that isn’t built around a schedule.
2. They invested in a huge library of permanent content that is always new to some set of users that doesn’t expire.

Live sports are tied to a schedule and have zero value the second the final whistle blows.

I don’t see it as the slam dunk people claim it is.

I agree that this is far from a slam dunk.

What I think* people are trying to say is that sports are one of the only things people will watch live which means they have immense value to advertisers.

Therefore, they have value to the Amazons/youtubes/Netflixs of the world because it allows them entry to a robust revenue stream.

Plus, I believe there have been articles where at least one of these tech people are quoted as saying they want in on live sports for the reason stated above.

 

[whaler11]

I agree that this is far from a slam dunk.

What I think* people are trying to say is that sports are one of the only things people will watch live which means they have immense value to advertisers.

Therefore, they have value to the Amazons/youtubes/Netflixs of the world because it allows them entry to a robust revenue stream.

Plus, I believe there have been articles where at least one of these tech people are quoted as saying they want in on live sports for the reason stated above.

And what was one of cable’s big challenges?

Sports are so expensive and watched by so few that those subsidizing started to revolt. Why would Netflix for example want to chase off subs they got for that reason in the first place?

I thought Netflix said they don’t want sports. Amazon has those EPL games - stuff like that and cricket that is more international seems a lot more likely than mid-level american college sports to me since the potential audience dwarfs something like SMU/Tulsa - which gets a rating that is completely determined by what network it airs on.

 

[intlzncster]

Nobody's signing up for Netflix for the sports package.

 

[BUConn10]

A Memphis State grad who probably moves boxes at FedEx is talking smack lol. Tomorrow I’ll be working on things with 2 and 3 more zeros than the AAC deal and he’ll be explaining to someone why they lost their shipment from newegg.

UConn didn’t get their tier 3 rights back. They got the money back for the women’s basketball deal that was signed with SNY prior to the AAC deal. I believe it was exactly $1mm a year.

Unless something has changed the league owns everything going forward and UConn can’t sell the women’s basketball rights again.

Maybe Mrs Aresco should get her facts straight before running her mouth? Stunning Steve couldn’t value the loose change in his pocket - he can’t even dream up an entity that will magically make the contract bigger.

God it’s bad enough UConn has to subsidize this community college league - maybe don’t encourage their stupidest graduates.

Simply savage.

 

[UConnJim]

CBS OTA is going to go against ESPN/ABC/Fox primetime with AAC football? The affiliates would revolt.

CBS Sportsnet isn’t even a rated network. CBS has never shown any interest in trying to compete with it. They have their military academies and what they buy off the scrap heap.

I’m sure CBS will try and keep the small basketball package they have but they don’t even have anywhere to put the volume to buy anything more than they have in the past. Those Turner outlets other than TruTv get audiences that destroy AAC numbers by just showing syndicated re-runs. A Big Bang Theory rerun gets 5x what an AAC game would get on TNT or TBS.

I said that Amazon could build whatever they want - they are going to build it for the AAC? What little they have done has been in the much deeper end of the pool. They might run the whole world by 2030 but we are talking about the next deal.

Have you looked at CBS Saturday night Fall ratings? They are generally the 3rd or 4th ranked network for the key demographic, 18-49 year olds. They attract viewers (maybe 3.5 million a night), but they are old by generally showing re-runs and 48 Hours. And, the cost of re-runs can run high as CBS doesn't usually own the content and producing original content is very expensive so they are not going to produce original content for a dead Saturday night. The only time CBS wins in the key demo is when they show SEC Saturday night football games.

I did not say the AAC ws going to be shown every Saturday night on CBS, but they could fill some slots when the SEC is not being broadcast. And, the noon slots are wide open.

Big Bang Theory re-runs are a smashing success, but content like that is expensive, and not many syndicated shows can match BBT's draw. And, it is only a 30 minute show.

 

[CL82]

Nobody's signing up for Netflix for the sports package.

I might. It depends what is being offered and how much it is, right? That said, I'd only want that for UConn for games that are not being broadcast elsewhere.

 

[Guapo]

And what was one of cable’s big challenges?

Sports are so expensive and watched by so few that those subsidizing started to revolt. Why would Netflix for example want to chase off subs they got for that reason in the first place?

I thought Netflix said they don’t want sports. Amazon has those EPL games - stuff like that and cricket that is more international seems a lot more likely than mid-level american college sports to me since the potential audience dwarfs something like SMU/Tulsa - which gets a rating that is completely determined by what network it airs on.

I agree, that the idea of the AAC selling its rights to a Netflix or Amazon is far fetched.

But just on the bigger idea of the future of broadcasting sports; I don't think Netflix or Amazon would adapt the cable model.

It would be something much more like a la carte. There'll be a "Netflix CBB Network" that you pay for seperatly.

 

[Guapo]

cc: @whaler11

Amazon gets serious about streaming live sports - Digiday

 

[JMick]

Nobody's signing up for Netflix for the sports package.

No one is paying $50/mo for Netflix sports. People will pay $20 though. Look at Sling

 

[Guapo]

It's important to note that, even if Amazon has interest in buying rights to the AAC, it does not automatically mean it'll offer a dump truck full of money in order to do so.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Good post Jim. That was my thought, that Amazon, etc. might want to grab some of the AAC to begin proving their reach and value in contemplation of going after the bigger fish later.

With the right promotion little fish can become big fish.
I can’t believe how short the memories of BY ‘s are.
The Big East was comprised of Eastern teams who really hadn’t been Nationally Competitive since the early 50’s.
Catching that new media called cable and that network called ESPN they become among the most powerful and recognizable names in the country. That why we were so resented and derided. The Nuovo never are accepted.
Predicting the next format could make a league the 1970’s Big East. story of the 2020’s. Properly promoter there is little to prevent a simalar ascension.
When you look at markets the AAC is better positioned than the B12 or ACC . Promotion and on field or on court performance can change that perception in a heartbeat. Look Nova has single handily changed the perception of the NBE. It’s doable.

 

[whaler11]

Have you looked at CBS Saturday night Fall ratings? They are generally the 3rd or 4th ranked network for the key demographic, 18-49 year olds. They attract viewers (maybe 3.5 million a night), but they are old by generally showing re-runs and 48 Hours. And, the cost of re-runs can run high as CBS doesn't usually own the content and producing original content is very expensive so they are not going to produce original content for a dead Saturday night. The only time CBS wins in the key demo is when they show SEC Saturday night football games.

I did not say the AAC ws going to be shown every Saturday night on CBS, but they could fill some slots when the SEC is not being broadcast. And, the noon slots are wide open.

Big Bang Theory re-runs are a smashing success, but content like that is expensive, and not many syndicated shows can match BBT's draw. And, it is only a 30 minute show.

And you improve their ratings by showing the fourth/fifth best game in the window? The affiliates literally would not participate.

Saturday nights have great matchups on ABC/ESPN - and CBS is going to counter with Houston/Temple?

There is no way anyone is bidding to put the AAC on network TV beyond the handful of games that end up on ABC. It’s like 5 games, regional and a bone that ESPN throws them.

 

[whaler11]

Why would anyone want to be on Amazon over ESPN+ anyway if we are talking streaming. ESPN pushes you during all their programming. Someplace like Amazon they dump you into the inventory that has no relationship to sports at all.

 

[Guapo]

Why would anyone want to be on Amazon over ESPN+ anyway if we are talking streaming. ESPN pushes you during all their programming. Someplace like Amazon they dump you into the inventory that has no relationship to sports at all.

Amazon is going to take over the world.

ESPN...isn't

 

[BlueMAB]

No one is paying $50/mo for Netflix sports. People will pay $20 though. Look at Sling

The basic package on Sling is $20-$25, the sports package is only another $5/month

 

[whaler11]

Amazon is going to take over the world.

ESPN...isn't

Do you not see the problem with the endgame then? We are also talking about the 2020 contract not 2030 or 2040.

 

[Guapo]

Do you not see the problem with the endgame then? We are also talking about the 2020 contract not 2030 or 2040.

To quote Tony Soprano:

It's good to get in on the ground floor.

 

[whaler11]

To quote Tony Soprano:

It's good to get in on the ground floor.

And when you can’t recruit anyone because nobody see the games....

 

[Stinger92860]

>>Besides the league’s recent success in football and other sports, Aresco believes there are several other factors that will get the AAC a significantly better TV pact this time around.

Back in 2013, instability was still running rampant in college sports — and nowhere more so than in what was still called the Big East. West Virginia had left the year before, and Syracuse was in its final season. Louisville and Rutgers would be sticking around for just one more year.

Worse, the so-called “Catholic 7” was still in limbo, having already announced that they would be breaking off from the rest of the league, but still unsure when. Ultimately, they were gone the following season, as well — taking the Big East name with them in exchange for a monetary payout to the remaining schools.<<

>>“There was disarray,” Aresco noted. “We were victims in the upheaval resulting from conference realignment. It was the worst time for negotiations. We weren’t sure about membership, nobody knew what we had. They didn’t know what we had in football.”<<

I just read the link. I don’t see any other outcome besides we are screwed.

 

[Guapo]

And when you can’t recruit anyone because nobody see the games....

C'mon I'm obviously being facetious.

Go read my other posts in this thread, I'm more on your side (in this one instance) than not.