With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way (Yahoo/Thamel) | Page 3 | The Boneyard

With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way (Yahoo/Thamel)

Now someone like UCF, Boise State, or another Group of Five team has a better shot
 
Drew said:
Just using past AAC team rankings in the CFP polls as an indication (they’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 bids) really the conference affiliation would’ve been enormous for UConn’s chances to make it. Memphis in 2019 is a great example- theyre in as #17 in the country as a conference champion. It’s much easier to win a division and upset someone in a conference title game (and if you’re in the AAC you’re the highest G5) than UConn making the top 12 rankings as an independent
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Edsall can sell that he can make UConn top 25 (he's done that three times already here). But top 12? That's a tall order. For now they just gotta win the games in front of them (and please dear lord don't lose to FCS schools this year).
 
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Palatine said:
This model basically puts the winner of the American in the playoff most years.
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Not really, only if they are the top G5, in the Top 6 conference champions, or top 6 at-large. Unc.lear how independents will be treated (ND), if it is top G5/Ind then you can expect ND to be in. I doubt the P5 will give ND what will essentially a free pass to the playoff but if they want to block the smaller G5, then that would pretty much do it most years. I think Indy's will need to get in at-large, but ND will find a way to weasel into the ACC CCG.

Now, this is better than the 0% chance of getting in that the AAC has now (UCF).

You will see the polls and therefore the committee start to favor 2 and 3 loss P5 teams over 0 and 1 loss G5 teams because "schedule". Most G5 champs have been outside the top 12 most years.

Expect the allotment to look like this:
3 - SEC
3- B1G
1- B12
1- ACC
1- P12
1-G5
ND
1-P5 (usually ACC/B12/P12, but there will be a large push for a 4th SEC team)

In practice the entire CFB world other than the Top SEC/B1G powers will need to win their CCG or fight for the 12th spot.
 
SubbaBub said:
You will see the polls and therefore the committee start to favor 2 and 3 loss P5 teams over 0 and 1 loss G5 teams because "schedule". Most G5 champs have been outside the top 12 most years.
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Newsflash: this has been happening for years already. See 2017 + 2018 UCF being ranked behind teams like 3 loss MS St

It seems pretty accurate to me to say the AAC champ is getting in most years. They’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 auto bids and they’ve got way more resources, brand, and visibility than every other G5 league. Cincinnati would’ve hosted a playoff game last year and UCF would’ve hosted one in 2018. The league is in a good spot.
 
huskymedic said:
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By that logic, every G5 school should drop their P5 OOC games, but then it would give the P5 power brokers exactly what it wants.
 
Storrs South said:
I haven't seen anything yet, but I would not be shocked if Notre Dame gets some kind of exception for not being in a conference since their AD is on the committee working on this.

I cannot see Notre Dame just being OK with not having title to the top 6 conference champion group auto bid, unless they are comfortable based on past outcomes that they should haven't issue getting in as at large because of brand name.
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If they did that I wonder if the verbiage would have to be “top ranked conference champion or independent”?
 
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Drew said:
Newsflash: this has been happening for years already. See 2017 + 2018 UCF being ranked behind teams like 3 loss MS St

It seems pretty accurate to me to say the AAC champ is getting in most years. They’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 auto bids and they’ve got way more resources, brand, and visibility than every other G5 league. Cincinnati would’ve hosted a playoff game last year and UCF would’ve hosted one in 2018. The league is in a good spot.
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If you go back to 2010 and look at the final BCS or CFP rankings, the AAC (current members) would have gotten 6 out of 12 playoff bids that went to G5 schools over those years. MWC got 3, MAC got 2, and Sun Belt got 1. i think that old be the normal expectation for conference bids over time +/- one.
 
huskymedic said:
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This makes no sense. If BYU goes 12-0 and beats 1 FCS and 11 MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt/Indys), they're not going to get into the playoff. BYU without a conference champion would need to be in the top 12, and you think the committee is going to pick a low SOS BYU over a 2-loss Florida? Dream on. Remember there's only six at-large spots. Six spots for probably 2 or 3 more SEC teams, likely a spot for Notre Dame, leaving 2-3 spots for B1G/Big 12/ACC/Pac-12 runner ups.
 
If the six highest rated conference champions plus six at large model passes it's a huge win for the G5.

It will be interesting to see what BYU does if it passes, logic would dictate that they join the MWC because it would give them their best shot at the tournament, however the MWC TV contract stinks compared to what BYU gets from ESPN. Does ESPN push BYU into the AAC?

Would this increase UCONN's interest in the MAC? (football only of course) Western Michigan would have made the tournament 5 years ago. UMASS might reconsider moving all of their sports into the MAC. The bottom line is being in a G5 conference becomes slightly more attractive and being independent slightly less attractive.
 
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CF national media heavy hitters thread
 
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metsfan2323 said:
If the six highest rated conference champions plus six at large model passes it's a huge win for the G5.

It will be interesting to see what BYU does if it passes, logic would dictate that they join the MWC because it would give them their best shot at the tournament, however the MWC TV contract stinks compared to what BYU gets from ESPN. Does ESPN push BYU into the AAC?

Would this increase UCONN's interest in the MAC? (football only of course) Western Michigan would have made the tournament 5 years ago. UMASS might reconsider moving all of their sports into the MAC. The bottom line is being in a G5 conference becomes slightly more attractive and being independent slightly less attractive.
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I like being independent. We can schedule 5-6 P5 schools a year (something we can't do in the MAC). The MAC champion in most years will not be one of the top 6 conference champions so I would rather be an independent as a 13-0 MAC champion UConn might not get in, but a 12-0 independent UConn who played at least 4 P5 schools + 2 AAC schools + Army would absolutely get in. An 12-1 MAC champion UConn would never get in and might not even be ranked. An 11-1 independent UConn is unlikely to get in but could depending on strength of schedule.
 
metsfan2323 said:
If the six highest rated conference champions plus six at large model passes it's a huge win for the G5.

It will be interesting to see what BYU does if it passes, logic would dictate that they join the MWC because it would give them their best shot at the tournament, however the MWC TV contract stinks compared to what BYU gets from ESPN. Does ESPN push BYU into the AAC?

Would this increase UCONN's interest in the MAC? (football only of course) Western Michigan would have made the tournament 5 years ago. UMASS might reconsider moving all of their sports into the MAC. The bottom line is being in a G5 conference becomes slightly more attractive and being independent slightly less attractive.
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Why UCONN go to the MAC, which makes significantly less in TV dollars than than the AAC, after leaving the AAC which is by far and away a better conference.
 
pepband99 said:
State this after an 11-0 Bama team sits 1/2 their starters in an SECCG and gets an 8-4 Florida in.
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If the top 4 conference champs get a first round bye, won't Bama want to win the conference championship unless Bama does not want the bye? I would think Bama would want to have the bye vs. not having it.
 
shizzle787 said:
I like being independent. We can schedule 5-6 P5 schools a year (something we can't do in the MAC). The MAC champion in most years will not be one of the top 6 conference champions so I would rather be an independent as a 13-0 MAC champion UConn might not get in, but a 12-0 independent UConn who played at least 4 P5 schools + 2 AAC schools + Army would absolutely get in. An 12-1 MAC champion UConn would never get in and might not even be ranked. An 11-1 independent UConn is unlikely to get in but could depending on strength of schedule.
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Agreed. Going to MAC would be a huge mistake. In most years, a MAC champ won't make it while a season full of MAC opponents won't be interesting to most UCONN fans.

As an indy, UCONN can schedule 5 to 6 P5 schools per year. If UCONN is able to go 12-0 or 11-1, UCONN has a chance to make the playoff. The only thing UCONN won't get the is the 1st round bye for conference champs. The chance of MAC champ as a top 4 conference champ is slim to none, so it is not much of a loss. In just about all the years, top 4 conference champs will come from P5 conferences.

Based on this, I definitely think UCONN should stay as an indy while continuing to build up the program.
 
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WestCoastHusky said:
Agreed. Going to MAC would be a huge mistake. In most years, a MAC champ won't make it while a season full of MAC opponents won't be interesting to most UCONN fans.

As an indy, UCONN can schedule 5 to 6 P5 schools per year. If UCONN is able to go 12-0 or 11-1, UCONN has a chance to make the playoff. The only thing UCONN won't get the is the 1st round bye for conference champs. The chance of MAC champ as a top 4 conference champ is slim to none, so it is not much of a loss. In just about all the years, top 4 conference champs will come from P5 conferences.

Based on this, I definitely think UCONN should stay as an indy while continuing to build up the program.
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That and what is the MAC TV contract. Haven't looked into it but the TV exposure alone is worth Indy. If UConn were to play in the mac for a snowball chance in hell to play a team like Clemson vs. being able to play at least one big name a year along with regional rivals and p5 its a no brainer. Why in the hell get stuck playing teams like Toledo on no name TV for an almost zero chance to play brand names when we already have CFP brand names like Clemson, OSU and Michigan lined up? Would destroy recruiting success we've been seeing now. As WestCoast said... we wouldn't get a bye... neither would BYU or Army. Indy is hands down better than MAC

In fact if we were by rule excluded from the playoffs due to being Indy I would still rather be Indy and play some good fall games and go to a bowl than pretend we would ever go to a playoff once every 20 years to play CFP teams we already will be playing.
 
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Forte said:
In fact if we were by rule excluded from the playoffs due to being Indy I would still rather be Indy and play some good fall games and go to a bowl than pretend we would ever go to a playoff once every 20 years to play CFP teams we already will be playing.
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As the playoff expands and the bowl system becomes more and more worthless opinions might change. This is really a discussion to have after the playoff expansion passes, but I personally would rather be playing for a league title and a shot at the playoff's vs just going through the motions with no real end goal.

BTW each MAC team has 4 non conference games so we could still schedule local P5 rivals and avoid filling out our schedule with the likes of Yale. You brought up our road games vs Michigan and Ohio State as reasons to stay independent, yet all of the B1G schools play MAC schools.

A yearly schedule comprised of two P5 home games and two P5 road games followed by an eight game league schedule where rivalries will develop is much better than what we have now IMO. Is Fresno State more exciting than a league game vs Ohio?, is Holy Cross more exciting than a league game vs Kent State? Is Middle Tenn more exciting than a league game vs Buffalo? Is Yale more exciting than a league game vs Bowling Green? Is Wyoming really more exciting than a league game vs Ball State if a conference title is on the line? UMASS would become more fun as a league rival.
 
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WestCoastHusky said:
Agreed. Going to MAC would be a huge mistake. In most years, a MAC champ won't make it while a season full of MAC opponents won't be interesting to most UCONN fans.

As an indy, UCONN can schedule 5 to 6 P5 schools per year. If UCONN is able to go 12-0 or 11-1, UCONN has a chance to make the playoff. The only thing UCONN won't get the is the 1st round bye for conference champs. The chance of MAC champ as a top 4 conference champ is slim to none, so it is not much of a loss. In just about all the years, top 4 conference champs will come from P5 conferences.

Based on this, I definitely think UCONN should stay as an indy while continuing to build up the program.
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That's fan-boy talk. UConn might be able to schedule 5 to 6 games against P5 opponents some years, but how many of those games would the Huskies ever be able to win?

Losing a bunch of body-bag games against P5 schools won't enhance UConn's football bona fides or offer it a pathway to post-season play. The Huskies might prevail against a P5 opponent from time to time, but the chances of them ever going 12-0 or 11-1 against a slate which includes a number of worthy power opponents is nil. As always, the big ones eat the little ones.

UConn's best shot for any semblence of football success was in a multi-revenue-sports conference like the AAC. UConn's best shot for relevance on the court is in the basketball-centric New Big East. The Huskies made a choice -- probably a good one, considering its history and location in a football recruiting desert -- and there's no going back. Live with it.
 
On paper, that would make playoff access much more challenging for an independent program. But honestly, outside of Notre Dame, playoff access for independents is more of an academic question. The strongest non Notre Dame independent, BYU, was excellent in 2019, but has mostly struggled to break out of the ranks of "merely good" since leaving the Mountain West. Liberty needs a few more seasons like last one to begin to seriously wonder about playoff access, and the others struggle to even go .500.

No disrespect to my many UConn readers, but "can UConn make the College Football Playoff under this system" should not crack the top twenty-five most important questions right now. The only system where UConn can currently make the College Football Playoff is one where UConn is given an automatic bid thanks to some obscure clause in Randy Edsall's contract.

 
Giving teams a bye is an unfair tournament. Not surprised this is the route they would take.
 
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