With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way (Yahoo/Thamel)

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In the 2010 season when UConn made it to the Fiesta Bowl, using the final regular season AP Poll to rank teams, UConn (25) would have been the 8th highest ranked conference champion behind the SEC (1), MWC (3), Pac12 (2), Big 10 (4), ACC (12), Big 12 (9), and WAC (10). And, they would not have gotten an at-large bid. The playoff would have been made up of teams ranked 1-12.

Last year is interesting because of 2 non P-5 schools would have gotten one of the 6 top conference bids, Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. The top 12 teams would have made the playoff, but the Pac 12 was out of the playoff. They played a shortened season, so hard to say the data point is solid.

End of the day, it looks like the top 12 teams will make the playoff (sometimes the top 11 plus an outlier conference champ) and UConn has about the same chance of making the playoff as an Indy or in the AAC.
So if I understand the effect from UConn's perspective AAC v. Indy, in both cases they would need to be ranked in the top 12 in the country to make it to the playoffs, only benefit of AAC (or being in a conference in general) would be potential for a first round bye (I know this is laughable to think about given program history, just trying to understand if conference affiliation even matters as a fan)?

EDIT: I think as you note there is one scenario where say UConn in the AAC is not top 12 (maybe like 15-20 range), and wins the conference title and it so happens that the best MWC team is between 20-25 and CUSA, etc are worse. So I think the two benefits, albeit unlikely, benefits of conference affiliation is top 4 conference winners get a bye and the ability as a top 20 instead of 12 to make it.
 
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CL82

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Nobody cares but it’s pretty nuts UConn voluntarily wound up making it way harder to ever make the playoff by leaving the AAC
Not so nuts given the financials of the AAC deal, the lack of exposure for UConn teams and the fact that UConn football has been in a decade long slump.
 
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How many draftable kids are going to play in this sh1tshow? We’ll have Clemson JV playing UGa VJ in round 2. Fan- tactic
 

CL82

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So if I understand the effect from UConn's perspective AAC v. Indy, in both cases they would need to be ranked in the top 12 in the country to make it to the playoffs, only benefit of AAC (or being in a conference in general) would be potential for a first round bye (I know this is laughable to think about given program history, just trying to understand if conference affiliation even matters as a fan)?
Maybe not so laughable given program history. We had two BE championships.
 

Drew

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So if I understand the effect from UConn's perspective AAC v. Indy, in both cases they would need to be ranked in the top 12 in the country to make it to the playoffs, only benefit of AAC (or being in a conference in general) would be potential for a first round bye (I know this is laughable to think about given program history, just trying to understand if conference affiliation even matters as a fan)?

EDIT: I think as you note there is one scenario where say UConn in the AAC is not top 12 (maybe like 15-20 range), and wins the conference title and it so happens that the best MWC team is between 20-25 and CUSA, etc are worse. So I think the two benefits, albeit unlikely, benefits of conference affiliation is top 4 conference winners get a bye and the ability as a top 20 instead of 12 to make it.
Just using past AAC team rankings in the CFP polls as an indication (they’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 bids) really the conference affiliation would’ve been enormous for UConn’s chances to make it. Memphis in 2019 is a great example- theyre in as #17 in the country as a conference champion. It’s much easier to win a division and upset someone in a conference title game (and if you’re in the AAC you’re the highest G5) than UConn making the top 12 rankings as an independent
 

Husky25

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In the 2010 season when UConn made it to the Fiesta Bowl, using the final regular season AP Poll to rank teams, UConn (25) would have been the 8th highest ranked conference champion behind the SEC (1), MWC (3), Pac12 (2), Big 10 (4), ACC (12), Big 12 (9), and WAC (10). And, they would not have gotten an at-large bid. The playoff would have been made up of teams ranked 1-12.

Last year is interesting because of 2 non P-5 schools would have gotten one of the 6 top conference bids, Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. The top 12 teams would have made the playoff, but the Pac 12 was out of the playoff. They played a shortened season, so hard to say the data point is solid.

End of the day, it looks like the top 12 teams will make the playoff (sometimes the top 11 plus an outlier conference champ) and UConn has about the same chance of making the playoff as an Indy or in the AAC.
Last year however cannot be pointed to as an example. Rather it is an outlier due to the craziness of the environment. Neither The Big Ten, nor Pac12 started on time and barely any program played out of Conference. Getting rid of the overly political selection committee is a great 1st step in this scenario.
 
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Now someone like UCF, Boise State, or another Group of Five team has a better shot
 
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Just using past AAC team rankings in the CFP polls as an indication (they’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 bids) really the conference affiliation would’ve been enormous for UConn’s chances to make it. Memphis in 2019 is a great example- theyre in as #17 in the country as a conference champion. It’s much easier to win a division and upset someone in a conference title game (and if you’re in the AAC you’re the highest G5) than UConn making the top 12 rankings as an independent
Edsall can sell that he can make UConn top 25 (he's done that three times already here). But top 12? That's a tall order. For now they just gotta win the games in front of them (and please dear lord don't lose to FCS schools this year).
 

SubbaBub

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This model basically puts the winner of the American in the playoff most years.

Not really, only if they are the top G5, in the Top 6 conference champions, or top 6 at-large. Unc.lear how independents will be treated (ND), if it is top G5/Ind then you can expect ND to be in. I doubt the P5 will give ND what will essentially a free pass to the playoff but if they want to block the smaller G5, then that would pretty much do it most years. I think Indy's will need to get in at-large, but ND will find a way to weasel into the ACC CCG.

Now, this is better than the 0% chance of getting in that the AAC has now (UCF).

You will see the polls and therefore the committee start to favor 2 and 3 loss P5 teams over 0 and 1 loss G5 teams because "schedule". Most G5 champs have been outside the top 12 most years.

Expect the allotment to look like this:
3 - SEC
3- B1G
1- B12
1- ACC
1- P12
1-G5
ND
1-P5 (usually ACC/B12/P12, but there will be a large push for a 4th SEC team)

In practice the entire CFB world other than the Top SEC/B1G powers will need to win their CCG or fight for the 12th spot.
 

Drew

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You will see the polls and therefore the committee start to favor 2 and 3 loss P5 teams over 0 and 1 loss G5 teams because "schedule". Most G5 champs have been outside the top 12 most years.
Newsflash: this has been happening for years already. See 2017 + 2018 UCF being ranked behind teams like 3 loss MS St

It seems pretty accurate to me to say the AAC champ is getting in most years. They’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 auto bids and they’ve got way more resources, brand, and visibility than every other G5 league. Cincinnati would’ve hosted a playoff game last year and UCF would’ve hosted one in 2018. The league is in a good spot.
 

Husky25

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By that logic, every G5 school should drop their P5 OOC games, but then it would give the P5 power brokers exactly what it wants.
 
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I haven't seen anything yet, but I would not be shocked if Notre Dame gets some kind of exception for not being in a conference since their AD is on the committee working on this.

I cannot see Notre Dame just being OK with not having title to the top 6 conference champion group auto bid, unless they are comfortable based on past outcomes that they should haven't issue getting in as at large because of brand name.
If they did that I wonder if the verbiage would have to be “top ranked conference champion or independent”?
 
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Newsflash: this has been happening for years already. See 2017 + 2018 UCF being ranked behind teams like 3 loss MS St

It seems pretty accurate to me to say the AAC champ is getting in most years. They’ve gotten 5 of 7 NY6 auto bids and they’ve got way more resources, brand, and visibility than every other G5 league. Cincinnati would’ve hosted a playoff game last year and UCF would’ve hosted one in 2018. The league is in a good spot.
If you go back to 2010 and look at the final BCS or CFP rankings, the AAC (current members) would have gotten 6 out of 12 playoff bids that went to G5 schools over those years. MWC got 3, MAC got 2, and Sun Belt got 1. i think that old be the normal expectation for conference bids over time +/- one.
 
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This makes no sense. If BYU goes 12-0 and beats 1 FCS and 11 MAC/C-USA/Sun Belt/Indys), they're not going to get into the playoff. BYU without a conference champion would need to be in the top 12, and you think the committee is going to pick a low SOS BYU over a 2-loss Florida? Dream on. Remember there's only six at-large spots. Six spots for probably 2 or 3 more SEC teams, likely a spot for Notre Dame, leaving 2-3 spots for B1G/Big 12/ACC/Pac-12 runner ups.
 
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If the six highest rated conference champions plus six at large model passes it's a huge win for the G5.

It will be interesting to see what BYU does if it passes, logic would dictate that they join the MWC because it would give them their best shot at the tournament, however the MWC TV contract stinks compared to what BYU gets from ESPN. Does ESPN push BYU into the AAC?

Would this increase UCONN's interest in the MAC? (football only of course) Western Michigan would have made the tournament 5 years ago. UMASS might reconsider moving all of their sports into the MAC. The bottom line is being in a G5 conference becomes slightly more attractive and being independent slightly less attractive.
 
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