With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way (Yahoo/Thamel)

[pepband99]

If the top 4 conference champs get a first round bye, won't Bama want to win the conference championship unless Bama does not want the bye? I would think Bama would want to have the bye vs. not having it.

My line was before the byes/etc were announced.

It's still semi-valid, though - you could easily build a scenario where a home game against a cupcake, and potentially dodging other seeds in the next game, ends up in your favor, though it's not clear cut.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[freescooter]

That's fan-boy talk. UConn might be able to schedule 5 to 6 games against P5 opponents some years, but how many of those games would the Huskies ever be able to win?

Losing a bunch of body-bag games against P5 schools won't enhance UConn's football bona fides or offer it a pathway to post-season play. The Huskies might prevail against a P5 opponent from time to time, but the chances of them ever going 12-0 or 11-1 against a slate which includes a number of worthy power opponents is nil. As always, the big ones eat the little ones.

UConn's best shot for any semblence of football success was in a multi-revenue-sports conference like the AAC. UConn's best shot for relevance on the court is in the basketball-centric New Big East. The Huskies made a choice -- probably a good one, considering its history and location in a football recruiting desert -- and there's no going back. Live with it.

We made a choice but I don’t completely agree with your analysis. Being a major power in the New Big East is going to be very difficult. Only one program has actually managed it and really they were already one. People blamed the AAC for UConn’s decline when that could more realistically be attributed to hiring an inept unprepared head coach. People talk about al the bids the Big East gets but when you look at what actually happens, there have been 2 teams besides Villanova to get beyond the first weekend. That is likely our future. Basically Seton Hall.

We sold out every other program, football and baseball in particular, for the fools gold of the New Big East which is really nothing more than a strong regional league.
On the other hand it is possible to qualify for the playoffs I suppose. We would need to win 11 games which would require beating some P5 teams. But BC isn’t getting there and Duke isn’t and Illinois isn’t and Cal is t so we aren’t that different I suppose. I have never been very much in favor of a playoff. I think it cheapens the season. And in any case they will expand to 16 in fairly short order. I can just imagine the SEC meeting where 5 seed LSU tells 1 seed Alabama how much they made hosting a first round game. Do it 2 straight years and you can build a roller coaster over the lazy river

 

[ConnHuskBask]

We made a choice but I don’t completely agree with your analysis. Being a major power in the New Big East is going to be very difficult. Only one program has actually managed it and really they were already one. People blamed the AAC for UConn’s decline when that could more realistically be attributed to hiring an inept unprepared head coach. People talk about al the bids the Big East gets but when you look at what actually happens, there have been 2 teams besides Villanova to get beyond the first weekend. That is likely our future. Basically Seton Hall.

We sold out every other program, football and baseball in particular, for the fools gold of the New Big East which is really nothing more than a strong regional league.
On the other hand it is possible to qualify for the playoffs I suppose. We would need to win 11 games which would require beating some P5 teams. But BC isn’t getting there and Duke isn’t and Illinois isn’t and Cal is t so we aren’t that different I suppose. I have never been very much in favor of a playoff. I think it cheapens the season. And in any case they will expand to 16 in fairly short order. I can just imagine the SEC meeting where 5 seed LSU tells 1 seed Alabama how much they made hosting a first round game. Do it 2 straight years and you can build a roller coaster over the lazy river

Clown take. You can argue the decision on the grounds of football for sure, but to say the Big East is anything less than a power basketball conference is ridiculous.

Since the new league formed they've sent: 4,6,5,7,6,4,4 teams to the NCAAs and won two national titles.

Not bad for a strong regional league.

 

[DoctorWho85]

Giving teams a bye is an unfair tournament. Not surprised this is the route they would take.

How is that unfair? Almost every level of football rewards the top teams in playoffs with a bye and home field advantage. Are you saying the NFL is unfair because the top 2 seeds in each conference gets a bye?

 

[Scoe]

Personally I would go with a 25 team playoff.

 

[Scoe]

How is that unfair? Almost every level of football rewards the top teams in playoffs with a bye and home field advantage. Are you saying the NFL is unfair because the top 2 seeds in each conference gets a bye?

It doesn't take away from the regular season, theres added incentive to being a top 4 team.

 

[Guapo]

Personally I would go with a 1000 team playoff

 

[Husky25]

Agreed. Going to MAC would be a huge mistake. In most years, a MAC champ won't make it while a season full of MAC opponents won't be interesting to most UCONN fans.

As an indy, UCONN can schedule 5 to 6 P5 schools per year. If UCONN is able to go 12-0 or 11-1, UCONN has a chance to make the playoff. The only thing UCONN won't get the is the 1st round bye for conference champs. The chance of MAC champ as a top 4 conference champ is slim to none, so it is not much of a loss. In just about all the years, top 4 conference champs will come from P5 conferences.

Based on this, I definitely think UCONN should stay as an indy while continuing to build up the program.

Just so I'm clear, If UConn does what it has never done in the modern era, they have a chance to make the playoff.

The last time UConn had only one loss was 1945 after an 8 game season during which they played WPI, Middlebury, and Amherst. On the other hand they won the conference so they'd theoretically be eligible for a bye.

 

[Waquoit]

I don't see how this tiny sliver of hope for the AAC changes a thing for UConn, except for giving UConn a slightly tinier sliver for themselves. The AAC was killing UConn. Look at all of that teams thrived over the past year outside it's oppressive yolk. Fans calling for UConn to "beg" their way back in certainly aren't UConn fans.

 

[Exit 4]

I don't see how this tiny sliver of hope for the AAC changes a thing for UConn, except for giving UConn a slightly tinier sliver for themselves. The AAC was killing UConn. Look at all of that teams thrived over the past year outside it's oppressive yolk. Fans calling for UConn to "beg" their way back in certainly aren't UConn fans.

We didn't belong. How does a UConn fan in NYC brag about playing SMU, Tulsa, ECU and Memphis to their peers? You can't. The AAC is a decent conference for all but UConn. We didn't fit and its because its not in the DNA of New Englanders to fit with that trans south-central grouping. UConn - Seton Hall, UConn - Georgetown, UConn-Villanova, even UConn - DePaul lines up more more naturally. There are several Villanova households in my neighborhood in southern CT....Some St Johns, some Georgetown. I can't say that about a single AAC school accept yes - there are occasionally dispassionate Tulane alumni around.

We tried UConn on an island in the AAC and it didn't work, we were taking on water.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

We didn't belong. How does a UConn fan in NYC brag about playing SMU, Tulsa, ECU and Memphis to their peers? You can't. The AAC is a decent conference for all but UConn. We didn't fit and its because its not in the DNA of New Englanders to fit with that trans south-central grouping. UConn - Seton Hall, UConn - Georgetown, UConn-Villanova, even UConn - DePaul lines up more more naturally. There are several Villanova households in my neighborhood in southern CT....Some St Johns, some Georgetown. I can't say that about a single AAC school accept yes - there are occasionally dispassionate Tulane alumni around.

We tried UConn on an island in the AAC and it didn't work, we were taking on water.

AAC experience might have been different if the football team wasn't horrendous during that period. It didn't matter who they were playing....they were unwatchable. If they were playing meaningful games, maybe some rivalries could have been built.

I prefer being independent...but the AAC experience was tainted by our bad football teams.

 

[Husky25]

The AAC is a decent conference for all but UConn.

It's not good for Temple either.

 

[Guapo]

I don't see how this tiny sliver of hope for the AAC changes a thing for UConn, except for giving UConn a slightly tinier sliver for themselves. The AAC was killing UConn. Look at all of that teams thrived over the past year outside it's oppressive yolk. Fans calling for UConn to "beg" their way back in certainly aren't UConn

We didn't belong. How does a UConn fan in NYC brag about playing SMU, Tulsa, ECU and Memphis to their peers? You can't. The AAC is a decent conference for all but UConn. We didn't fit and its because its not in the DNA of New Englanders to fit with that trans south-central grouping. UConn - Seton Hall, UConn - Georgetown, UConn-Villanova, even UConn - DePaul lines up more more naturally. There are several Villanova households in my neighborhood in southern CT....Some St Johns, some Georgetown. I can't say that about a single AAC school accept yes - there are occasionally dispassionate Tulane alumni around.

We tried UConn on an island in the AAC and it didn't work, we were taking on water

These are the only correct takes. Arguing anything else is either a) trolling (at best) or b) delusional idiocy

 

[Exit 4]

It's not good for Temple either.

No doubt Temple will be monitoring our fortunes as an independent for they find themselves in the same situation in a decade.

AAC experience might have been different if the football team wasn't horrendous during that period. It didn't matter who they were playing....they were unwatchable. If they were playing meaningful games, maybe some rivalries could have been built.

I prefer being independent...but the AAC experience was tainted by our bad football teams.

Yep, maybe a little different...but its really hard to get people in the Northeast to get excited by a "Conf USA" type line up. They want a more relatable line up or they want something that is truly top shelf. Even if we were winning 6-9 games a year in AAC football I think we still would have had attendance & alumni engagement weakness at all levels and in all sports.

 

[billybud]

Giving teams a bye is an unfair tournament. Not surprised this is the route they would take.

The top 6 Big East teams were given a first game bye in the last conference BB tournament while four played....how is this different from the football bye model?

 

[UConnFranklin]

To be a great idea the champ of every conference and highest ranked independent not named Norte Dame, since it’s really in the ACC, should get an automatic bid! All schools should have a real pathway to the college championship. Not a fake chance!!

 

[huskymedic]

 

[billybud]

To be a great idea the champ of every conference and highest ranked independent not named Norte Dame, since it’s really in the ACC, should get an automatic bid! All schools should have a real pathway to the college championship. Not a fake chance!!

But the Irish aren't in the ACC for football.....excepting last year's covid season.

 

[Guapo]

Bring me muh scheduling podssss!!

down with divisions

 

[Husky25]

Oh, here we go. They are going to attempt to legislate nuance and anomalies. This is how Notre Dame will ultimately be the only Independent with a pathway to a bye.

Set up the broad strokes. Play the games, and have the chips fall where they may. Picking winners in September is how they got here in the first place.

If Notre Dame wants a bye they should join a conference permanently. After all, Conference championships and in season rivalry games are more important than a silly end of season tournament.

 

[freescooter]

Clown take. You can argue the decision on the grounds of football for sure, but to say the Big East is anything less than a power basketball conference is ridiculous.

Since the new league formed they've sent: 4,6,5,7,6,4,4 teams to the NCAAs and won two national titles.

Not bad for a strong regional league.

The Big East is Villanova. You are repeating exactly what I predicted. Lots of bids. Villanova has 2 national championships. The rest of the league has 2 sweet 16s. St John’s, Providence, Seton Hall et al are exactly what they have been for 2 decades. Nice little programs that have neither intent nor hope of doing anything in the post season. For UConn, whether you want to admit it or not, this move represented a step back for its athletic program from being a perennial national presence to a regional one. There are many reasons for that including a desire to focus on academics and decline in interest from younger alums and students in general but the biggest one is money and the failure of the Susie-Warde team to get us into the ACC when the opportunity arose. It is fine. But the likelihood of seeing another National Championship banner in Gampel is very slim. Once Geno retires it will be unlikely on that side as well.

I will say it again, though. Villanova is a major national power. Their success is no more a reflection on the quality of the New Big East than Gonzaga’s is a reflection of the quality of its conference. While major conferences can point to multiple teams making deep runs, even winning it all, for the New Big East it is Villanova or nothing and mostly it’s nothing. Getting 6 bids is a fairly meaningless metric when they are all watching the sweet16 from their dorm rooms.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The Big East is Villanova. You are repeating exactly what I predicted. Lots of bids. Villanova has 2 national championships. The rest of the league has 2 sweet 16s. St John’s, Providence, Seton Hall et al are exactly what they have been for 2 decades. Nice little programs that have neither intent nor hope of doing anything in the post season. For UConn, whether you want to admit it or not, this move represented a step back for its athletic program from being a perennial national presence to a regional one. There are many reasons for that including a desire to focus on academics and decline in interest from younger alums and students in general but the biggest one is money and the failure of the Susie-Warde team to get us into the ACC when the opportunity arose. It is fine. But the likelihood of seeing another National Championship banner in Gampel is very slim. Once Geno retires it will be unlikely on that side as well.

I will say it again, though. Villanova is a major national power. Their success is no more a reflection on the quality of the New Big East than Gonzaga’s is a reflection of the quality of its conference. While major conferences can point to multiple teams making deep runs, even winning it all, for the New Big East it is Villanova or nothing and mostly it’s nothing. Getting 6 bids is a fairly meaningless metric when they are all watching the sweet16 from their dorm rooms.

So you're measure of a league isn't tourney bids, or national titles, but cumulative Sweet 16 appearances. Got it.

 

[Guapo]

The Big East is Villanova. You are repeating exactly what I predicted. Lots of bids. Villanova has 2 national championships. The rest of the league has 2 sweet 16s. St John’s, Providence, Seton Hall et al are exactly what they have been for 2 decades. Nice little programs that have neither intent nor hope of doing anything in the post season. For UConn, whether you want to admit it or not, this move represented a step back for its athletic program from being a perennial national presence to a regional one. There are many reasons for that including a desire to focus on academics and decline in interest from younger alums and students in general but the biggest one is money and the failure of the Susie-Warde team to get us into the ACC when the opportunity arose. It is fine. But the likelihood of seeing another National Championship banner in Gampel is very slim. Once Geno retires it will be unlikely on that side as well.

I will say it again, though. Villanova is a major national power. Their success is no more a reflection on the quality of the New Big East than Gonzaga’s is a reflection of the quality of its conference. While major conferences can point to multiple teams making deep runs, even winning it all, for the New Big East it is Villanova or nothing and mostly it’s nothing. Getting 6 bids is a fairly meaningless metric when they are all watching the sweet16 from their dorm rooms.

Just because you keep repeating this on the basketball page, and now here, doesn’t make it true.

@freescooter is the definition of an idiot, CHB. Do not engage.

 

[billybud]

I found this Nole take on the CFP and the AAC to be interesting:

"Watch how the AAC elevates after this is implemented. While they may not make as much as the other conferences, they will make enough now to be able to invest enough in football (if they are smart) to begin getting recruits that were leaving to some of the programs/conferences that relied on the AAC's recruiting footprint.

They have some schools in large cities and states in fertile recruiting areas. Orlando/Florida, Houston/Texas, Memphis/Tennessee, Cincinnati/Ohio, among other areas. Instead of some kids going to Iowa State, WVU, OkSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Pitt, etc., they'll stay home at UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincy, etc. Making decent rosters better.

Their contracts (network, bowl agreement and team apparel) contracts will improve with this playoff change. Add in the ability to make the playoffs and having some playoff games under their belts and they'll have more to sell to recruits. Recruits that will want to stay home, rather than go to the next best schools they can go to. Coaches may want to stay where they are too. And if you get the AAC schools like UCF with large fan bases even more interested, watch out.

Would you rather go to a bottom half major conference or a top half AAC school? Little chance of making the playoffs or a good chance?"

 

[Guapo]

I found this Nole take on the CFP and the AAC to be interesting:

"Watch how the AAC elevates after this is implemented. While they may not make as much as the other conferences, they will make enough now to be able to invest enough in football (if they are smart) to begin getting recruits that were leaving to some of the programs/conferences that relied on the AAC's recruiting footprint.

They have some schools in large cities and states in fertile recruiting areas. Orlando/Florida, Houston/Texas, Memphis/Tennessee, Cincinnati/Ohio, among other areas. Instead of some kids going to Iowa State, WVU, OkSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Pitt, etc., they'll stay home at UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincy, etc. Making decent rosters better.

Their contracts (network, bowl agreement and team apparel) contracts will improve with this playoff change. Add in the ability to make the playoffs and having some playoff games under their belts and they'll have more to sell to recruits. Recruits that will want to stay home, rather than go to the next best schools they can go to. Coaches may want to stay where they are too. And if you get the AAC schools like UCF with large fan bases even more interested, watch out.

Would you rather go to a bottom half major conference or a top half AAC school? Little chance of making the playoffs or a good chance?"

all of that could be true about increased money/TV/exposure...if Aresco hadn’t locked them into a horrible TV deal for foreseeable future

 

[Exit 4]

I found this Nole take on the CFP and the AAC to be interesting:

"Watch how the AAC elevates after this is implemented. While they may not make as much as the other conferences, they will make enough now to be able to invest enough in football (if they are smart) to begin getting recruits that were leaving to some of the programs/conferences that relied on the AAC's recruiting footprint.

They have some schools in large cities and states in fertile recruiting areas. Orlando/Florida, Houston/Texas, Memphis/Tennessee, Cincinnati/Ohio, among other areas. Instead of some kids going to Iowa State, WVU, OkSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Pitt, etc., they'll stay home at UCF, Houston, Memphis, Cincy, etc. Making decent rosters better.

Their contracts (network, bowl agreement and team apparel) contracts will improve with this playoff change. Add in the ability to make the playoffs and having some playoff games under their belts and they'll have more to sell to recruits. Recruits that will want to stay home, rather than go to the next best schools they can go to. Coaches may want to stay where they are too. And if you get the AAC schools like UCF with large fan bases even more interested, watch out.

Would you rather go to a bottom half major conference or a top half AAC school? Little chance of making the playoffs or a good chance?"

I have a rewrite...yes, maybe one of the schools in the AAC turns themselves into a clear Boise State, head and shoulders above it's AAC brethren. Maybe. Could be UCF, could be Houston, could be Cincy. While the playoff might help distribute more talent equally you have the other force in play which are the new state issued NIL rules. The new NIL rules might tilt things back the other way, especially to wherever boosters, tv money and zany fandom are strongest (ahem SEC & select other traditional powers).

I don't see enough in this new playoff format to make one G5 stand up and become the clear P6.

 

[Husky25]

If conferences go to an unregulated league championship format (I.e. no divisions, or round robin,) and can basically pick their own CFP representative by way of CCG, the bottom feeders of the P5 may have the most to lose. For the ACC, those are basically the programs that destroyed the Big East. They may still have the money, but it doesn't seem to be going into the athletic departments. If they can't get out of the second division, they will lose the exposure, and thereby recruiting advantages.

UConn very well could be preferable to BC, Cuse, or Pitt.

 

[freescooter]

So you're measure of a league isn't tourney bids, or national titles, but cumulative Sweet 16 appearances. Got it.

Bids are irrelevant if you can’t get past the first round. Good grief! What dose it prove if you get 6 bids and everybody goes home after the round of 32? It proves you aren’t that good.

Villanova at this point is so far above the rest of the league it is just incredible. Nobody has come close to challenging their dominance. This isn’t a pier conference where multiple teams had a shot at the national championship. It certainly isn’t the ACC which has had multiple different Final Four teams and multiple national champions. Or the Big 12 or Big 10 or SEC all of whom have sent multiple teams to the Final Four. It has had Villanova. That’s it. And for all those bids you like to brag about, 2 other teams have gone past the round of 32. Heck the ACC had 2 in the Final Four a couple of years ago. So did the SEC and the Big 10. Since the founding of the New Big East in 2014, Villanova has won it all twice. 3 different ACC teams have. If you don’t get the difference between depth and dominance I don’t know what to tell you. But perhaps an example will help. When 1 team continually is superior to the rest of its league, that is dominance. See Villanova and the new Big East. When multiple teams compete with each other year after year to be the best, and different ones win, that is an example of a league with depth. See the ACC. Do you see the difference now?

 

[freescooter]

If conferences go to an unregulated league championship format (I.e. no divisions, or round robin,) and can basically pick their own CFP representative by way of CCG, the bottom feeders of the P5 may have the most to lose. For the ACC, those are basically the programs that destroyed the Big East. They may still have the money, but it doesn't seem to be going into the athletic departments. If they can't get out of the second division, they will lose the exposure, and thereby recruiting advantages.

UConn very well could be preferable to BC, Cuse, Pitt, or Pitt.

I do think this is a real possibility for mid and lower tier P5 teams. And one has to wonder if there will come a point where greed takes over to the point where top teams decide they could do better not supporting the Vanderbilts and Wake Forests and Washington States and Kansases of the world and either cut them out entirely or share revenue based on performance.