With College Football Playoff change looming, a 12-team model leads the way (Yahoo/Thamel)

[OGinsider]

Giving teams a bye is an unfair tournament. Not surprised this is the route they would take.

Every route they take is unfair, if they do 12 teams the 13th team will cry and complain, if they do a 100 team playoff the 101 team would say that it isn’t fair!

 

[Scoe]

Every route they take is unfair, if they do 12 teams the 13th team will cry and complain, if they do a 100 team playoff the 101 team would say that it isn’t fair!

Go to 25 teams so that way your a top 25 team you have a shot, team 18 has a bye, team 17 has a double bye, 16 has a triple bye and top 15 teams have a quadruple bye, lowest seed faces highest seeded team when you start the playoffs and as you advance.

 

[jdb50]

I am 64 yo and I intend to be around a while. The day AAC football coaches outside of Navy stay in their jobs with Power 5 money calling them I will not see.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Stop being intentionally obtuse. Bids don’t matter much. Leagues and teams get over rated all the time and it shows when the tournament begins. This year the Big 10 was overrated but it is typically very good. The power leagues have multiple teams that are capable of running deep. Duke, UNC Duke have all won it. UNC and Syracuse also went to the Final Four. Multiple Big 10 teams went to the Final Four. As did SEC and Big 12 teams. Since 2014 when the NBE began, Villanova won titles. Who else got to a Final Four? 0. 1 Elite 8, 2 Sweet 16s. Compare that with the power conferences. Try to imagine how people would rate the NBE without Villanova. Then look at the ACC without Duke. Hmm. The ACC still has UNC, Virginia not to mention Syracuse, maybe FSU. Now think of the NBE without Villanova. You have??? Well Creighton and Xavier have both made it past the first weekend one time so there is that I guess. And of course Seton Hall. Everyone fears the Hall. The Duke of northern New Jersey I think they call them. Look the New Big East is a nice league. Better than the A10 and right now better than the AAC. But it isn’t a power league. If it were a country it would be England. Once a great power. Now it could probably beat Argentina but it lost its empire. Same with the NBE.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@freescooter still digesting the above?

 

[Guapo]

@freescooter still digesting the above?

@freescooter never actually responds to this (or he’ll dismiss it as “nerd stats” - it’s a little too involved for his simple mind)

he also never fully grasps that the Big East consistently brings in high level recruiting classes - and 2021 may be it’s best yet.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Guapo]

Staying at 4, after bowl season, is actually an idea I like a lot. Oh well.

 

[Husky25]

Staying at 4, after bowl season, is actually an idea I like a lot. Oh well.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@freescooter never actually responds to this (or he’ll dismiss it as “nerd stats” - it’s a little too involved for his simple mind)

he also never fully grasps that the Big East consistently brings in high level recruiting classes - and 2021 may be it’s best yet.

What's kind of funny is that the guy did all this research and it basically supports the conclusion any reasonable person would have.

There are 6 power hoop conferences. The AAC.. and then everyone else.

Big East being behind the acc, big ten, big 12, and ahead of the SEC and PAC over time but in given years, the big east can hang in the top 3.

 

[Slasher]

I have a rewrite...yes, maybe one of the schools in the AAC turns themselves into a clear Boise State, head and shoulders above it's AAC brethren. Maybe. Could be UCF, could be Houston, could be Cincy. While the playoff might help distribute more talent equally you have the other force in play which are the new state issued NIL rules. The new NIL rules might tilt things back the other way, especially to wherever boosters, tv money and zany fandom are strongest (ahem SEC & select other traditional powers).

I don't see enough in this new playoff format to make one G5 stand up and become the clear P6.

Actually I think NIL favors those schools in bigger cities a hell of a lot more than it will the lower half of the P5. Think about West Lafayette, IN or Winston-Salem, NC or Starksville, MS. NIL will really favor the P5 schools already in big metro areas (Ohio State, Texas, etc.) But the AAC is fairly well positioned with their teams mostly in bigger cities like Cincy, Memphis, Houston, Orlando, Tampa. A lot more sponsporships available in Houston than Waco.

 

[Exit 4]

Actually I think NIL favors those schools in bigger cities a hell of a lot more than it will the lower half of the P5. Think about West Lafayette, IN or Winston-Salem, NC or Starksville, MS. NIL will really favor the P5 schools already in big metro areas (Ohio State, Texas, etc.) But the AAC is fairly well positioned with their teams mostly in bigger cities like Cincy, Memphis, Houston, Orlando, Tampa. A lot more sponsporships available in Houston than Waco.

Interesting hypothesis, yeah maybe in the long run it tilts that way a little. Might take a decade for this thing to really ramp up and organize into the tiers I think we can expect. Recruiting ranking may actually play a part in the value applied to these contracts (I know- crazy!).

Sugar daddies will be the X factor here. Benefactors that can provide sponsorship contracts.

 

[billybud]

Some of the top 10 ranked colleges in licensed merchandise sales are in smallish metro's ...Tuscaloosa, Gainesville, Chapel Hill. Lexington, South Bend...I wonder how NIL will correlate to licensed merchandise sales?

 

[Guapo]

I think market size will be a bigger deal in basketball than in football (I.e. it might work out that you’re more valuable if you become a big star at St. John’s vs if you go to Iowa State)

 

[billybud]

I assume value and exposure will be intertwined....

Jalen Suggs at Gonzaga last season is ranked as one of Gonzaga's greatest of all time...market value? Dunno.

 

[billybud]

Now Trevor Lawrence ? He was everywhere I looked on ESPN...like they were his agents.

 

[huskymedic]

I assume value and exposure will be intertwined....

Jalen Suggs at Gonzaga last season is ranked as one of Gonzaga's greatest of all time...market value? Dunno.

Well, it’s projected that just Suggs Instagram earning potential is valued @ $240k+. UConn’s WBB Paige Bueckers is valued @ $545k+.

 

[billybud]

Estimated increases to conferences brought by increasing the CFP Playoff to 12...

The $2 Billion Impact of a CFP Expansion | Navigate Blog

With nothing certain yet for who will own certain rights to the new CFP games, it’s clear that this expansion will provide a financial lift to all 5 football schools.

nvgt.com

 

[huskymedic]

->The price to miss out on the bye into the quarterfinals on the years it was a top-four seed isn’t much. As the alternative, Notre Dame will be the playoff’s No. 5 seed and host the No. 12 seed, the weakest playoff entrant. More years than not, that team will be the champion of a Group of Five league.

While getting automatic advancement is great, the financial, recruiting and marketing momentum of a home playoff game is significant (the quarterfinals are expected to be played at neutral sites). A Notre Dame playoff game will generate a huge television audience and a hyped on-campus crowd. And if you can’t beat the No. 12 seed at home, well, you probably weren't going far in the playoff anyway.

Moreover, because Notre Dame doesn’t belong to a conference — and thus doesn’t compete in a conference championship game — its season ends on Thanksgiving weekend. It would have three weeks to prepare for the first-round opponent, then at least two-plus more before the quarterfinals, which are scheduled for New Year’s Day.

Would a team really want a five- or six-week layoff between its final regular season game and the quarterfinals? Or would it be better prepared for the quarters by taking on an opponent it should defeat, at home, and still have plenty of rest and preparation time? <-

 

[huskymedic]

 

[SubbaBub]

8 is the right number but they need to account for the lost at-large bids for the SEC and B1G, plus guard against ND or some other interloper stealing one, so it's 12 and everyone is happy.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[DoctorWho85]

That pretty much guarantees the AAC a shot at the table every year.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Saw this article and may have missed it here but the “Autonomous 5” is a completely new and frightening thing

AAC's Aresco responds to Pac-12's playoff wish

American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN on Saturday that guaranteeing each Power 5 conference champion a spot in a potential 12-team playoff format would be "an enormous step in the wrong direction."

www.espn.com

 

[SU1968]

Saw this article and may have missed it here but the “Autonomous 5” is a completely new and frightening thing

AAC's Aresco responds to Pac-12's playoff wish

American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN on Saturday that guaranteeing each Power 5 conference champion a spot in a potential 12-team playoff format would be "an enormous step in the wrong direction."

www.espn.com

I suspect the issue is money for the P5 (or A5 if that's the new name). They will want at least the same percentage of revenue from any new system as they currently get. The desire for guaranteed slots for P5 champions is a nod to that goal.