Which school will be next to get a P5 invite? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Which school will be next to get a P5 invite?

Which school will be next to get a P5 invite?

  • Boise St

    Votes: 1 0.8%

  • BYU

    Votes: 13 10.5%

  • Cincinnati

    Votes: 52 41.9%

  • Houston

    Votes: 2 1.6%

  • Nevada

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • UConn

    Votes: 51 41.1%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.0%
  • Total voters
    124
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Not open for further replies.
The day will come when ND will be "forced" to join a conference. However, I believe it will be the B1G.
 
RS9999X said:
My nightmare scenario is FSU and Cincy to the B12 while ESPN insists that UCF is the only fit replacement for FSU to keep the ACCs Florida presence.. The Pac-12 adds Houston and Nevada. 14 becomes the new 12 with the B12 later adding Miami and BYU with USF going to the ACC to keep the Florida market. UMess and UCan't are left behind in the new Div II conference to play Maine, Towson, Nova, Army, and Buffalo every year.
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FSU leaving the ACC will also likely mean the ACC finally falls apart. Because that means its biggest name teams are on the move to the SEC, Big 12, and, B1G.
 
RS9999X said:
My nightmare scenario is FSU and Cincy to the B12 while ESPN insists that UCF is the only fit replacement for FSU to keep the ACCs Florida presence.. The Pac-12 adds Houston and Nevada. 14 becomes the new 12 with the B12 later adding Miami and BYU with USF going to the ACC to keep the Florida market. UMess and UCan't are left behind in the new Div II conference to play Maine, Towson, Nova, Army, and Buffalo every year.
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That's good. Maybe next time uconn plays Towson there will be some energy.
 
frankthetank said:
NO, NO, NO. Absolutely, positively, NO.

No one has ever, ever, ever, "forced" Notre Dame to do a single thing.

The LAST thing that the Big Ten (and all of the other power conferences outside of the ACC) wants to see is for Notre Dame to join the ACC on a full-time basis. Everyone might want ND to join their *own* conference, but no one wants to see ND join a *different* conference. That's why the power conferences will put up with ND's independence in perpetuity. ND joining the ACC makes that league into a financial powerhouse in the same hemisphere as the Big Ten and SEC. There's zero reason why Jim Delany (who would see his East Coast plans for the B1G blow up in smoke) and Mike Slive (who would now have an equal money-making competitor in the Southeast) would ever want that. This is something that I've seen way too many fans miss over the years.
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Disagree. Nd isn't joining sec. Likely big12 is seeing that nd isn't joining there league either. They have nothing to lose pushing nd to a conference. PAC is probably the same.
Only acc and big think nd could land in their league.
 
Frank,

UConn is never joining a major conference and the entire athletic program is going to die in the AAC. WE GET IT. Do you have any real inside information, or are you just here trolling?
 
RS9999X said:
My nightmare scenario is FSU and Cincy to the B12 while ESPN insists that UCF is the only fit replacement for FSU to keep the ACCs Florida presence.. The Pac-12 adds Houston and Nevada. 14 becomes the new 12 with the B12 later adding Miami and BYU with USF going to the ACC to keep the Florida market. UMess and UCan't are left behind in the new Div II conference to play Maine, Towson, Nova, Army, and Buffalo every year.
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If FSU ever leaves the ACC it certainly won't be for the Big 12. They had their chance to join last year and instead signed a GoR with the ACC which locks them there until 2025. They don't want to become the next WVU and travel halfway across the country to play teams they've got nothing in common with. If they ever leave it'll be for the SEC and nothing else.
 
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Marty Jackson said:
Disagree. Nd isn't joining sec. Likely big12 is seeing that nd isn't joining there league either. They have nothing to lose pushing nd to a conference. PAC is probably the same.
Only acc and big think nd could land in their league.
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Expansion is done (for the intermediate future at least) probably longer.

The Big Dog, SEC has 14, they need nor want any more - less they dilute their overall product. They got the BCS playoffs now, so they are content.

ACC has 14, with ND as a quasi (filling up ACC football $tadium$ and their own) while keeping the fat TV contract. They don't have to do anything.

B1G will be at 14 next year.

No one needs to go to 16!

With the SEC holding tight, there will be no movement by the other two. The SEC drives the train, and it is a gravy train right now, so why mess with it.

Maybe we can land in Big 12 (unlikely geographically) or some strategic expansion in the AAC (better than what is coming).
 
A while back I thought Frankthetank was so rational and close to inside information that he could anticipate moves. Now I believe that he is a guy who writes reasonably well with no information. He is full of himself thus is compelled to offer insight even when it has no reasonable basis, but he is not talented enough with the pen to dress this up any longer. I think I have seen behind the curtain.
 
Frank has an opinion and he expresses it.

He wouldn't know UConn if he landed in the middle of it and he seems to regard optimism here as a form of crabgrass that needs to be dealt with immediately - he has the Vancouver Film School in the PAC12 before UConn gets out of the AAC.

However, I have no doubt that he has a better feel for the Big Ten than we do and unlike the West Virginia/Star Wars characters, he is not prone to outlandish predictions that never come true and his take on the ACC/Big Ten tussle bore out to be the correct one.
 
I have thought UCONN landing spot will be the B10 just not sure if it will be in the near future or in 5-7 years from now.

Still wondering why the state of Connecticut gave ESPN tax breaks to stay here when they have hundreds of millions invested here. Yes I have an issue with ESPN and think they are as much to blame for UCONN being left behind.
 
I don't see the Big Ten getting Virginia...Virginia had a chance to go to the B!g if that was the plan, and they signed the GOR.....and Virginia's AD has always maintained that, rumors aside, that Virginia is a committed ACC program.

If the ACC were to go to 16, UConn would be a possible target. I wouldn't discard USF as a possible target...they are a natural rival of FSU and Miami and give both programs a game that fans can drive to (a rarity now for both FSU & Miami). If Notre Dame does ever come in at #15...there will be pressure to look south for #16.
 
billybud said:
I don't see the Big Ten getting Virginia...Virginia had a chance to go to the B!g if that was the plan, and they signed the GOR.....and Virginia's AD has always maintained that, rumors aside, that Virginia is a committed ACC program.

If the ACC were to go to 16, UConn would be a possible target. I wouldn't discard USF as a possible target...they are a natural rival of FSU and Miami and give both programs a game that fans can drive to (a rarity now for both FSU & Miami). If Notre Dame does ever come in at #15...there will be pressure to look south for #16.
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Good thing for us ND is never coming in at 15 I guess. USF over UCONN to the Acc would make even less sense than Rutgers finding a life raft before us. I find that hard to believe. At a certain point Uva and unc are going to want flagships not the 5th best Florida state school whose football program is even worse than ours.
 
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billybud said:
I don't see the Big Ten getting Virginia...Virginia had a chance to go to the B!g if that was the plan, and they signed the GOR.....and Virginia's AD has always maintained that, rumors aside, that Virginia is a committed ACC program.

If the ACC were to go to 16, UConn would be a possible target. I wouldn't discard USF as a possible target...they are a natural rival of FSU and Miami and give both programs a game that fans can drive to (a rarity now for both FSU & Miami). If Notre Dame does ever come in at #15...there will be pressure to look south for #16.
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UVA to the B1G was a rumour made up by overzealous conf expansion nuts. Unlike their "simpler" cousins to the north, UVA is quite satisfied in the ACC and values playing the UNC and Duke's of the ACC.

Uconn is a tough one, on one hand we already have BC (sadly) and Cuse in the region so how much more can you get from TV with those already there. On the other hand, unless we steal a SEC or B12 team (highly unlikely on both unless Texas leaves the B12) Uconn and Cincy are the only viable targets left.
USF will NEVER be a ACC target unless FSU leaves. FSU already plays Miami and Florida so they have plenty of FL company. They would block USF like Florida blocks them from the SEC.
 
larryredbull said:
Uconn is a tough one, on one hand we already have BC (sadly) and Cuse in the region so how much more can you get from TV with those already there. On the other hand, unless we steal a SEC or B12 team (highly unlikely on both unless Texas leaves the B12) Uconn and Cincy are the only viable targets left.
USF will NEVER be a ACC target unless FSU leaves. FSU already plays Miami and Florida so they have plenty of FL company. They would block USF like Florida blocks them from the SEC.
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To say BC and Cuse are in UConn's region completely ignores demographics and generalizes the Northeast as one (massive) demographic where you must expect the population to chose BC or Cuse as its only options?

The Syracuse demo is ranked 84th with 380k, Connecticut demo is 1 million, the Boston demo is 2.37 million.

If the ACC wants to continue to lay claim to NYC, with its Cuse and ND additions, it would certainly make more sense to include UConn in its next expansion plan over Cinci as 1/3 of the state is represented in the NYC demo, and not included in the 1 mil demo mentioned above. Additionally if you considering the ACC's desire to launch an ACC network (not that I believe it will ever happen), there is added value in the fact UConn is the flagship university of a state with no competition with additional inroads to NYC. UConn's ability to have SNY raise its rate roughly $.90 with the addition of UConn games should serve as a fair indication the state is willing to pay for the UConn product. I don't understand how the ACC would pass on UConn again if it expands unless BC has as much influence as GDF claims.
 
Cincinnati has some history with FSU, Louisville, VT and GT...we all were in the Metro conference.

I certainly remember those days.
 
I think Frank summarized the reality pretty well. ACC loses teams and we are in good shape for an invite. The B1g XII falls apart completely (TX and 3 more to Pac) and the "American" poaches Iowa State, K State, Baylor and whoever else is left, or those leftovers add UConn, Cincy and some others. It becomes clearly the #5 conference either way. With the GOR out of the way, the B1G would poach as well, taking KU and whoever else they wanted. I don't think we're in their top 5 right now.

The Big XII is the key at this point, they have the next move on the board. If it is a small move it could be Cinci and somebody else, including UConn. If it is a big move that breaks up the league and GOR, then all hell breaks lose, and the B1G goes to 16 at least, and the SEC could come for Oklahoma +. The idea that the B1G is going to make a move to 16 just to add UConn and whatever fodder is available isn't realistic. It's more realistic that the ACC does that, or the Big XII.
 
billybud said:
Cincinnati has some history with FSU, Louisville, VT and GT...we all were in the Metro conference.

I certainly remember those days.
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So was Tulane, St. Louis and Memphis.
 
specialisthusky said:
To say BC and Cuse are in UConn's region completely ignores demographics and generalizes the Northeast as one (massive) demographic where you must expect the population to chose BC or Cuse as its only options?

The Syracuse demo is ranked 84th with 380k, Connecticut demo is 1 million, the Boston demo is 2.37 million.

If the ACC wants to continue to lay claim to NYC, with its Cuse and ND additions, it would certainly make more sense to include UConn in its next expansion plan over Cinci as 1/3 of the state is represented in the NYC demo, and not included in the 1 mil demo mentioned above. Additionally if you considering the ACC's desire to launch an ACC network (not that I believe it will ever happen), there is added value in the fact UConn is the flagship university of a state with no competition with additional inroads to NYC. UConn's ability to have SNY raise its rate roughly $.90 with the addition of UConn games should serve as a fair indication the state is willing to pay for the UConn product. I don't understand how the ACC would pass on UConn again if it expands unless BC has as much influence as GDF claims.
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You misread my comments. Yes I am aware that Uconn,Cuse,and BC are in different markets. However from a TV money perspective (which is what drives conference realignment) BC and Cuse got the ACC on TV in the exact same markets which adding Uconn would do. The ACC doesn't pick up anymore TV sets with Uconn that it already has. Uconn may add some additional eyeballs in NYC but the real question is, does it add enough to both pay for the additional member and grow the pot for everyone. At least at this point, I dont think it does.

If/when TV providers can't cram sports into every TV set like the B1G is doing, then Uconn becomes more valuable because it would bring viewers that the ACC doesnt have right now.
 
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d1reality said:
Expansion is done (for the intermediate future at least) probably longer.

The Big Dog, SEC has 14, they need nor want any more - less they dilute their overall product. They got the BCS playoffs now, so they are content.

ACC has 14, with ND as a quasi (filling up ACC football $tadium$ and their own) while keeping the fat TV contract. They don't have to do anything.

B1G will be at 14 next year.

No one needs to go to 16!

With the SEC holding tight, there will be no movement by the other two. The SEC drives the train, and it is a gravy train right now, so why mess with it.

Maybe we can land in Big 12 (unlikely geographically) or some strategic expansion in the AAC (better than what is coming).
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I love these definitive statements as if you know something... Realignment was done when ND left the BE (supposedly).
As long as a conference can make more money per school through addition, they will expand. That means schools need to be available that can raise the per diem.

Nobody knows what the next steps are, or when the next chips will fall. I would venture to say that change is the only constant.
 
larryredbull said:
You misread my comments. Yes I am aware that Uconn,Cuse,and BC are in different markets. However from a TV money perspective (which is what drives conference realignment) BC and Cuse got the ACC on TV in the exact same markets which adding Uconn would do. The ACC doesn't pick up anymore TV sets with Uconn that it already has. Uconn may add some additional eyeballs in NYC but the real question is, does it add enough to both pay for the additional member and grow the pot for everyone. At least at this point, I dont think it does.

If/when TV providers can't cram sports into every TV set like the B1G is doing, then Uconn becomes more valuable because it would bring viewers that the ACC doesnt have right now.
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Seriously you are so far out of your depth on this, it's puzzling. Syracuse is in Central NY. BC gets beat by rodeo in Boston when it's playing football (no, that's not a joke). UConn's market (I'm not talking NY or Mass.) is 20th in the country.
 
upstater said:
Seriously you are so far out of your depth on this, it's puzzling. Syracuse is in Central NY. BC gets beat by rodeo in Boston when it's playing football (no, that's not a joke). UConn's market (I'm not talking NY or Mass.) is 20th in the country.
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Ok, below is the coverage map for the ACC network circa 2012

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2012/09/acc-network-tv-coverage-maps.html

In addition to this we also added the Yes and MSG networks which also adds broadcasting in CT and NJ. In addition, we also have games on the ESPN networks so we pretty much have the Northeast covered with TV sets without Uconn. Yes Uconn may get on on additional channels in the NE but I doubt the networks would pay the ACC enough to cover both the extra mouth to feed and raise the payout to the other ACC members which would be required.

Please tell me how I am "out of my depth" with this.

Uconn's only hope to be added to the ACC at this point is for either someone to leave or Notre Dame to join and we would need a 16th.
 
I actually believe that BYU has a standing invite from the Big XII whenever BYU is ready to fold on its dreams of being independent.
 
larryredbull said:
Ok, below is the coverage map for the ACC network circa 2012

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2012/09/acc-network-tv-coverage-maps.html

In addition to this we also added the Yes and MSG networks which also adds broadcasting in CT and NJ. In addition, we also have games on the ESPN networks so we pretty much have the Northeast covered with TV sets without Uconn. Yes Uconn may get on on additional channels in the NE but I doubt the networks would pay the ACC enough to cover both the extra mouth to feed and raise the payout to the other ACC members which would be required.

Please tell me how I am "out of my depth" with this.

Uconn's only hope to be added to the ACC at this point is for either someone to leave or Notre Dame to join and we would need a 16th.
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You're out of your depth on this. ESPN is what counts. Eyeballs is what counts.

We've already gone over this on this CR board in threads at the top right now. SNY is charging $2.50 per subscriber in Connecticut right now largely because of UConn sports. There are a lot of people in this area for whom UConn is the best thing going, better than pro sports, better than TV shows. That doesn't apply to the other schools. This is why UConn's licensing and Tier3 revenues are so high.
 
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upstater said:
You're out of your depth on this. ESPN is what counts. Eyeballs is what counts.

We've already gone over this on this CR board in threads at the top right now. SNY is charging $2.50 per subscriber in Connecticut right now largely because of UConn sports. There are a lot of people in this area for whom UConn is the best thing going, better than pro sports, better than TV shows. That doesn't apply to the other schools. This is why UConn's licensing and Tier3 revenues are so high.
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I think you are out of your depth. If ESPN is what counts, then we are covered since ESPN holds the entire ACC contract!! At 2.50 a subscriber and with the ACC projected to move to $20 mill per team payout with Notre Dame and Louisville coming on, adding Uconn would have to bring in an additional 8 million subscribers just to keep the payout equal. When you add a team you want to increase the payout so Uconn would have to bring more. I dont see that happening since we are already pretty well covered.

SNY is a mets station and overlaps coverage areas with YES which the ACC is on so again, we are already on in the same area as SNY is shown.
 
larryredbull said:
I think you are out of your depth. If ESPN is what counts, then we are covered since ESPN holds the entire ACC contract!! At 2.50 a subscriber and with the ACC projected to move to $20 mill per team payout with Notre Dame and Louisville coming on, adding Uconn would have to bring in an additional 8 million subscribers just to keep the payout equal. When you add a team you want to increase the payout so Uconn would have to bring more. I dont see that happening since we are already pretty well covered.

SNY is a mets station and overlaps coverage areas with YES which the ACC is on so again, we are already on in the same area as SNY is shown.
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Oh my God, what are you talking about? SNY is for 3rd tier rights, not total rights. Jeez.

I'm pointing out to you how much people pay to watch UConn in the state of Connecticut. The amount of money UConn is worth in TV dollars dwarfs what BC and Syracuse bring to the table. We know the ACC and Swofford may not be so interested in that, given the types of schools they've added while Delany absolutely ate their lunch with Rutgers and Maryland.
 
upstater said:
Oh my God, what are you talking about? SNY is for 3rd tier rights, not total rights. Jeez.

I'm pointing out to you how much people pay to watch UConn in the state of Connecticut. The amount of money UConn is worth in TV dollars dwarfs what BC and Syracuse bring to the table. We know the ACC and Swofford may not be so interested in that, given the types of schools they've added while Delany absolutely ate their lunch with Rutgers and Maryland.
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Great explain to me how adding Uconn brings in excess of $20million a year to the ACC? You may not think much of BC or Cuse but apparently ESPN did to give the ACC a increase in rights fees and get the ACC network covered throughout the Northeast and thats a fact not a opinion that you have.

Maybe Uconn would have brought more money than BC or Cuse but the fact is that both of those teams are currently in the ACC, we arent kicking them out so to add Uconn in addition to those 2 means that Uconn will have to add more than $20 million a year in revenue to the ACC to both pay for their equal share and to increase it above and beyond what they are already guaranteed to get. THATS THE ARGUMENT!

The B1G's addition of Rutgers and UMD is a bet. If cable stays bundled and they get the B1G added in those areas, yes the B1G will have made a smart move and get more revenue than the ACC. If cable goes a la carte, the B1G made a stupid move because those schools wont pay for themselves. Time will tell on that move but its really premature to say that the B1G has eaten our lunch yet.
 
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