I'm not ready to concede that just yet.
Compared to UK and UofL, Tennessee has better facilites and a better track record of commitment to women's athletics. Pat stepping down is bound to knock our reputation down a little bit, but, as previously stated in this thread, the recruiters will spin this positively: "Come be a part of the new Tennessee tradition and get us back to the top of the sport."
Aside from Connecticut, no one even comes close to matching the support the Lady Vols continue to get. That support will not magically dissipate just because we haven't acheived much the last 4 years.
Bringing Elzy on board is key. Rumors are swirling that we are bringing in another great recruiter alongside her. With the right people in place, I don't see a reason we can't land 6 from 2013. We certainly have the room for them.
And, if we do land 6 kids, one could argue that it woud be one of the best hauls of all time. Of course, we thought that the 2008 class was the best at the time and that turned out to be...well...not true. Such is the game of recruiting, I suppose.
It's common in fandom to be enthusiastic beyond reality. Look at how many people buy lottery tickets. We often hear comments from Vols referring to what was and relating it to the future. But, like your broker tells you, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Take track record for commitment to women's athletics for instance. Do you think it would have developed if TN didn't have Pat for all those years. Isn't it more likely that, without Pat, things would have developed like the rest of the schools in the SEC? If you accept that premise, on what basis will support remain at a high level in Pat's absence? TN is already pegged to decline to perhaps as low as 4th place in the conference. If that happens, or worse, how long will support last? Fans like the feel good of being a fan of a winning team. When the team is no longer winning, support wanes. And, it seems as though TN fans are already concerned about the Athletic Director's commitment to women's sports.
Before Pat announced her illness (last year), wasn't fan support waning? This year Pat's situation did much to revive interest in the Lady Vols. I don't think you can point to this year's interest and extrapolate that into the future. We'll have to see what happens.
I think the consensus is that Elzy was a good move. But, looking into the future, is it a good idea to have 6 graduating seniors in one year? Also, if you do get 6 great recruits, how many of them will play next year, and what about the remaining 3 years. Uconn fans are worried about a class of 3 great recruits and it's impact on future recruiting. Imagine those recruits thinking about having to compete every day with 5 great players with none of them graduating in time to give you your chance in the limelight?
I think next year will be an interesting year, but I'm not buying one of the lottery tickets you're selling.