You are probably right and the Big East and Villanova in particular are the exceptions. Even with UMass falling off, it was still a difficult decision but I don't think the A-10 will ever be what it once was. Even the Big East may be at risk but that's a different debate. At least with FBS football the programs are part of the discussion.I have a difficult time believing that Troy or Louisiana Tech are higher up than Villanova.
Leaving the A-10 became a far easier decision for UMass as their basketball program basically fell off the map this millennium, but if they had some reasonable success, the choice (leaving a number of longtime rivals to join a lesser basketball conference) would have been a difficult sell.
If they can't build the football program to at least the point where they are more often than not .500 in conference play and consistently sit in the top third of the conference in men's basketball, it will be very difficult to view the move as a success.
Agreed, UMass has to improve or it will be viewed as a failure. It seems something very significant has to change up there for it to get better. Like landing a Jim Mora (in my opinion) and Jim Calhoun at the same time significant.