Uconn's time may be near....

[nelsonmuntz]

I have trouble playing any scenario out in such a way that UConn does not end up completely screwed. Our BEST CASE is the current Big East hangs together. #BegHarder© has not worked. While lightweights like Gross at mediocre schools in dead factory towns in Siberia were saving their programs, we have been left on the sidelines. I don't see a scenario where UConn ever gets invited to the ACC unless it is in such shambles UConn shouldn't join.

The only chance UConn has is the Big East gets a decent enough contract so that UConn can be competitive. Manuel somehow gets Shaka Smart, who doesn't miss a beat, and Pasqualoni rights the ship enough in football so that next time UConn goes to hire a football coach, the two choices aren't a has been and a never was (Whipple). IF BOTH THINGS HAPPEN, UConn has a chance to land on its feat in the next go around. There will be successful programs emerging from the non-majors. Hopefully one can be UConn.

The more likely outcome is that it is all finished. Edsall was mediocrity personified, and while WVU and Louisville were making themselves attractive to other leagues, UConn was treading water. Calhoun will be a happy memory that will be replaced by a succession of Dom Pernos while UConn ends up in a league with UMass, Buffalo, UNH and Temple. The New New Yankee Conference.

 

[Dann]

put down the bottle andleave the crazy talk to me nelson. u made me cry, thats hard to do on a sports message board.

 

[whaler11]

Ah the conference affiliation problem is Edsall's fault for being mediocre. Now it all makes sense.

Northwestern and Vanderbilt are not leaving those paydays - if they had a problem with being uncompetitive (which they aren't really), why did they wait so long. Northwestern had days 100x darker then their current results.

They didn't walk away when the money wasn't this big. They aren't walking away now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Ah the conference affiliation problem is Edsall's fault for being mediocre. Now it all makes sense.

Northwestern and Vanderbilt are not leaving those paydays - if they had a problem with being uncompetitive (which they aren't really), why did they wait so long. Northwestern had days 100x darker then their current results.

They didn't walk away when the money wasn't this big. They aren't walking away now.

Reasons why Vandy and NW have not left yet:

1) There has never been a credible alternative. They joined these leagues decades ago for proximity and because they were the only "major" schools in the region. With the TV rights market the way it is, a FBS "Patriot League" with the names I gave could get a very healthy contract, probably in the high teens. They wouldn't be playing for a National Championship, but then none of them are playing for national championships now.

2) These schools do not need the money. Vandy and NW have huge endowments. These are academics first universities. Do you think the Ivies or U of Chicago, which were powerhouses in the early days of college football, regret their decision to de-emphasize athletics for even a millisecond?

3) Changing face of college athletics. There is a 50% chance that college athletes will be getting paid within a decade. At most SEC and about half the Big 10 schools, that is already happening. Do you think Vandy or NW want any part of that? They will drop down to DII before they pay their players.

Those two are the first calls if the ACC gets raided heavily, i.e 4 or more teams leave.

 

[The Funster]

Didn't Northwestern seek and receive a commitment from the Big 10 that they would not be forced out of the conference?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Didn't Northwestern seek and receive a commitment from the Big 10 that they would not be forced out of the conference?

I think that is right. The fact they even had to ask for it says something about their standing in that league. I don't see the Big 10 or SEC ever forcing Northwestern or Vandy out, but I also don't see either conference getting too upset if their token academic schools decide to go on their own. Don't you think the Big 10 would take UVa or UNC in an even swap for Northwestern in a heartbeat?

 

[Jax Husky]

It isn't crazy at all. If you don't like Tulane and Rice, leave them out. If you think for a minute that Vanderbilt or Northwestern alums think of any school in their respective conference as "rivals" in anything other than sports, you are out of your mind. I don't care if a kid grew up in Tuscaloosa, if he is a legitimate candidate for Vanderbilt, he would slit his wrist if he ended up at Alabama. If you asked Vanderbilt and Northwestern alums if they would rather be in a league with Auburn and Minnesota, or Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and even Georgetown and Villanova, most would rather be affiliated with the better schools.

Vanderbilt and Northwestern are not interested in being semi-pro teams like Auburn and Ohio State. How do I know this? Look at their records for the past 10 years. They are playing a straight game in leagues where anyone that wants to win is cheating. That won't get better with the dollars on the table, particularly with the playoff.

Despite their huge endowments, money is still a problem, or these schools would already be in a league together. But in this market, the league I laid out could still get a big payday from TV. A lot would have to happen to get to that point. But there are very plausible scenarios where UConn is not the next phone call the ACC makes if it tries to expand.

Tulane has almost ended their athletics department many times since Katrina, and was just denied funding for a new stadium. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY wants Tulane. Re: Vanderbilt, NO SEC team is leaving that conference. Do you really think Vanderbilt's adiministration is so shortsighted that they are going to leave the most profitable and stable conference in the country because some of their Alums fancy Northwestern or Duke? Vandy needs the SEC's $$ more than any other team in that conference. You talk about money being a problem, yet suggest that a team will leave the most profitable conference in the same breath.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I think I'd prefer the ACC sans FSU/Clemson only because the football travel is a little easier... and you have more regional rivals. The basketball is probably a bit more attractive as well.. but FSU and Clemson leaving makes the ACC much less attractive and certainly evens the playing field.

A little more attractive? Try light years better, as is baseball, and soccer. Football would be a wash. No brainer to leave before the NBE implodes.

 

[IMind]

A little more attractive? Try light years better, as is baseball, and soccer. Football would be a wash. No brainer to leave before the NBE implodes.

I pretty much agree.. the football wouldn't be much better... but the stability more than makes up for it... I hadn't even taken non-revenue sports into consideration... it's a no brainer when you include them.

 

[The Funster]

I think that is right. The fact they even had to ask for it says something about their standing in that league. I don't see the Big 10 or SEC ever forcing Northwestern or Vandy out, but I also don't see either conference getting too upset if their token academic schools decide to go on their own. Don't you think the Big 10 would take UVa or UNC in an even swap for Northwestern in a heartbeat?

Why would Northwestern voluntarily leave the Big 10 if they sought and received assurance that they wouldn't be forced out?

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't understand all the complaints about the ACC. I've read pages, and pages about the NY market. The ACC is arguably more attractive to TV with UConn and Rutgers and minus FSU and Clemson. It truly would be the Atlantic Coast conference...a perfect answer to the Pac 10 on the more densely populated coast. The Big East would fold, and the ACC hoops tournament could move the MSG.

BC is down because they lack natural geographic rivals. I suspect that adding Pitt, Cuse, UConn and Rutgers to their schedule will bring back enthusiasm. I know it's the school we love to hate, but they have had some football success. I think all the ACC schools would benefit from this shift to the north. The basketball would be easily the greatest conference ever assembled. That alone would generate eyeballs and recruiting that would carry over to football. They two are linked. ACC football has suffered in part because basketball hasn't generated the publicity it used to. There is no reason why the ACC schools can't may huge improvements in football. Anyone who thinks that Houston is more likely to be good over time than North Carolina is nuts.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

My point is, I don't think UConn is one of the Top 5 choices for the ACC even if it gets hit by a freight train in the next month.

The best we can hope for is that the NNBE hangs together.

 

[The Funster]

My point is, I don't think UConn is one of the Top 5 choices for the ACC even if it gets hit by a freight train in the next month.

The best we can hope for is that the NNBE hangs together.

Well, yeah. I'm sure the ACC would rather have ND, Vanderbilt, Texas, Michigan and the New Orleans Saints over UConn but can we keep the speculation to stuff that is reasonably realistic? To wade through these increasingly bizarre realignments is making these board almost completely useless. You were one of the people who harassed a poster who had legitimate insight off this board, for what? For you to try and explain to us why Northwestern and Vanderbilt would leave the B!G and SEC respectively? Seriously?

 

[whaler11]

BC is down because they have an idiot running their athletic department. Their team was fine before they ran off Jags.

 

[metsfan2323]

My point is, I don't think UConn is one of the Top 5 choices for the ACC even if it gets hit by a freight train in the next month.

The best we can hope for is that the NNBE hangs together.

Care to name the 5 that would get in before UCONN?

 

[IthacaMatt]

Heh, we'll be looking at the next place to live no matter where we land, unless it's the Big 10. Neither the new Big East nor the ACC are stable. But the ACC is more stable. If Houston or SMU or Boise St got successful enough, off they'd be to a more geographically rational conference. At least the ACC schools are geographically contiguous.

The ACC's geographic continuity and tradition means that it will remain as a conference with a good sized TV contract. They won't dissolve, or go thru mass defections. The poster who said UVa would go to the SEC is delusional. They love the academic cache that they share with Duke & UNC.

I don't see FSU and Clemson leaving for anywhere but the SEC. The Big 12 is Texas's latest private club, and is about as unstable as the Big East. Anybody who doesn't see that has an agenda that they are pushing.

 

[IthacaMatt]

So Herbst and the Governor committed to join a conference of Wake, Duke, BC, Pitt and Syracuse? Because that may be the ACC after the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 are done picking at the conference. You got a link for that?

What do you think UNC and UVa will do if Clemson and FSU leave? How about VTech and NC State? You don't think the Big 10, which has publicly said they would consider expanding south, would want two top public schools like UVa and UNC in fast growing states? The SEC has it's "Gentlemen's Agreement" to keep out schools from Florida, Georgia, SC and Kentucky, but what about VTech and NC State? Maybe the Big 12 throws a lifeline to Miami, GTech or Maryland.

But you think it would be a good idea to sign up with three small private schools and two mediocre programs from dying industrial cities. Luckily for us, Wake, Duke, BC, Pitt and Syracuse, and whoever else was left, would probably be smart enough to join the Big East before UConn could do something as stupid as jump onto their sinking ship.

If you think UVa and UNC would leave the ACC for the Big 10, you're just delusional and don't get it at all.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I agree. But if FSU & Clemson do leave, VT will be #beggerharder for an SEC invite. I really don't see the appeal of the ACC if a few of their marquee programs leave. Bending over for Tobacco Road is not my idea of fun.

After the VA governor intervened in 2003 to ensure Va Tech to the ACC with UVA, there is no way they would go to the SEC. There is still the issue of academic prestige to some of these schools. That would keep UVa out, IMO, and while Va Tech would probably be a good fit, their gov.'s move was in part to buff Va Tech's academic reputation, it wasn't just about football and television contracts.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The tough call will be if FSU and Clemson leave (and the public momentum on that has increased about 500% in the last 2 days) and then nothing happens for a bit. All the ACC teams are scrambling for the life rafts, but they have not disembarked yet. What does UConn do in that situation?

I suspect that Swofford will want to add teams immediately, but more likely the ACC retrenches for several months before adding teams, and we will get to see who can escape and who can't.

Why would other ACC teams leave if FSU and Clemson were to get invited to the SEC ? Would the SEC get that much better a contract to justify 2 more teams than they already have ? The other ACC teams aren't going anywhere, unlike the Big East. They will remain at the big boy table.

 

[UConnJim]

IthacaMatt, you are dead wrong. The VA governor wanted a soft landing for VT when the BE blew up, and the ACC was the only spot at the time. If the SEC went after VT in 2003, they would have gone there. If UVA was invited to the Big 1G and VT was invited to the SEC, the politicians in Virginia would be thrilled as long as neither school was on the outside looking in.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC's geographic continuity and tradition means that it will remain as a conference with a good sized TV contract. They won't dissolve, or go thru mass defections. The poster who said UVa would go to the SEC is delusional. They love the academic cache that they share with Duke & UNC.

I don't see FSU and Clemson leaving for anywhere but the SEC. The Big 12 is Texas's latest private club, and is about as unstable as the Big East. Anybody who doesn't see that has an agenda that they are pushing.

You are wrong on every count. The Big 12 has done a grant of rights to the conference. That means if Texas leaves, they play for free until the end of the GoR. It doesn't get much more stable than that. The ACC, on the other hand, asked for $35MM departure fees from everyone and settles on $20, mostly because FSU refused to sign anything higher. Now the ACC is heading into arbitration with ESPN. What happened a year ago to the Big 12 is irrelevant. The ACC would kill for the Big 12's TV deal, and is taking ESPN to court to try to get close to it.

The only way FSU stays in the ACC is if Swofford guarantees FSU over $20MM a year, which would mean unequal revenue sharing in the league. I don't see Tobacco Road schools going for that.

 

[whaler11]

FSU stays in the ACC if ESPN decides they want to keep the membership together.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

FSU stays in the ACC if ESPN decides they want to keep the membership together.

I think ESPN has already made its position to the ACC clear, otherwise Swofford wouldn't be taking ESPN to arbitration. ESPN's position, loud and clear, is that if the ACC wants to keep FSU, it can come out of the ACC's end of the contract.

 

[whaler11]

I think ESPN has already made its position to the ACC clear, otherwise Swofford wouldn't be taking ESPN to arbitration. ESPN's position, loud and clear, is that if the ACC wants to keep FSU, it can come out of the ACC's end of the contract.

And the Big 12 was dead an buried. Until it wasn't.

 

[UCFBfan]

In no way was I saying that the ESPN Rumor Report was something to be accurate. (Sorry I just saw the posts after mine last night so this response is delayed) I just found it interesting that they were saying something different. Everything right now is just rumors and it is fun, at times, to speculate what the future may hold. However, I still think that everyone is crazy to think that UConn should "hold out" for an invite to the B1G. I can't see in any way, shape, or form that the B1G would EVER have interest in UConn. So it's the ACC or bust and honestly, especially now with the news that we have no leadership (not that we had much to begin with), the Big East is even more unstable, if that's possible....I'd take a FSU/Clemson/VT less ACC over whatever becomes of the BE any day!

 

[Uptop]

The ACC's geographic continuity and tradition means that it will remain as a conference with a good sized TV contract. They won't dissolve, or go thru mass defections. The poster who said UVa would go to the SEC is delusional. They love the academic cache that they share with Duke & UNC.

Is the information contained in the following link some of the duke and unc "academic cache" you're talking about?



http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/04/3218961/report-finds-academic-fraud-evidence.html

 

[Uptop]

The ACC's geographic continuity and tradition means that it will remain as a conference with a good sized TV contract. They won't dissolve, or go thru mass defections. The poster who said UVa would go to the SEC is delusional. They love the academic cache that they share with Duke & UNC.

I don't see FSU and Clemson leaving for anywhere but the SEC. The Big 12 is Texas's latest private club, and is about as unstable as the Big East. Anybody who doesn't see that has an agenda that they are pushing.

Is the information contained in the following link the type of "academic cache" at duke and unc you're talking about?


http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/04/3218961/report-finds-academic-fraud-evidence.html

 

[RS9999X]

The B12 has $22.5 million to offer a team for going to the B12 and adding a championship game plus the Tier 3 rights that should be at least $5 million for a team plus whatever the new BCS payout will be--likely another $3.0 mil a team minimum after all bowl expenses are cut out.

It's $30 mil plus no matter how they slice it.

FSU and OU pull 8.5 million viewers on a Saturday Night (As they did last year). That's huge. 12 games like that during the season earns huge paydays.

 

[IthacaMatt]

IthacaMatt, you are dead wrong. The VA governor wanted a soft landing for VT when the BE blew up, and the ACC was the only spot at the time. If the SEC went after VT in 2003, they would have gone there. If UVA was invited to the Big 1G and VT was invited to the SEC, the politicians in Virginia would be thrilled as long as neither school was on the outside looking in.

Jim, you may not have noticed this, but the Big East has continued to play football this past 10 years, so the soft landing stuff is nonsense. It was an upgrade they wanted. Va Tech could have ruled the Big East this past decade and had multiple BCS berths. But they wanted something else - stability, more prestige, closer proximity to their opponents. Blacksburg is not exactly right off the interstate, and before Beamer, VPI was a college that registered about on par with James Madison and Old Dominion.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think ESPN has already made its position to the ACC clear, otherwise Swofford wouldn't be taking ESPN to arbitration. ESPN's position, loud and clear, is that if the ACC wants to keep FSU, it can come out of the ACC's end of the contract.

And the Big 12 was dead an buried. Until it wasn't.

The Big 12 is a greatly diminished product with the 4 defections they incurred. ESPN threw money at them to avoid having a bunch of middle America congress people in Kansas and Iowa start anti-trust hearings against them.