Uconn's time may be near....

[Carl Spackler]

All UConn needs to do, is continue to maintain our pride and investment in being the finest state flagship public institution of higher learning in all of New England, academically, athletically, and facilities wise - and the rest will fall into place. That means continueing to keep all the facilities, programs, academic and athletic top notch and improving, growing the financial resources of the university through the endowment by contributions and grants, and for athletics --- RECRUITING like crazy and winning games.

35 years ago, UConn was speck on the map of the intercollegiate athletics. Jim Calhoun changed that such that 20 years ago, we no longer were just a speck, and UConn basketball gained regional, and then national attention, and the pride in the state U that swelled up around basketball was instrumental in the investment of millions upon millions into the university for the UConn 2000 project. 15 years ago, the UConn Board of Trustees decided in a vote that we were going all in and move to upgrade football to 1-A. Lots of hurdles along the way that could have stopped that upgrade at any time through three long years from 1997 until 2000 until the ground for the new stadium was finally broken.

9 years ago we played our first division 1-A game, against division 1-A competition in a bona fide division 1-A stadium - and won it - it against Indiana. Two years ago, we opened the season against Michigan in football, and finished the season in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. Lost both of them.

We get a rematch with Michigan - next year.

What it all means? Were good enough to beat the Duke's and Indiana's of the world - in both basketball and football......and we're good enough to own our own state in college sports broadcasting in football and basketball, and we're multiple title winners in all sports, but were not good enough to beat Michigan and Oklahoma on the big stage....YET.

The growth curve needs to continue, and in football it most definitely is. Basketball? Lots of question marks for the men's program right now. But football? The most important thing for UConn athletics, in whatever arrangement of conferences we end up in, is that we retain the most freedom we can with our scheduling and broadcasting, such that we can continue to grow our market value in CT, New York, and New England. In that sense, football ranks ahead of basketball now.

It all comes down to one thing - continue to win games.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The tough call will be if FSU and Clemson leave (and the public momentum on that has increased about 500% in the last 2 days) and then nothing happens for a bit. All the ACC teams are scrambling for the life rafts, but they have not disembarked yet. What does UConn do in that situation?

I suspect that Swofford will want to add teams immediately, but more likely the ACC retrenches for several months before adding teams, and we will get to see who can escape and who can't.

 

[pj]

It all comes down to one thing - continue to win games.

Continue to win fans is more like it. Fan interest = TV audience & ticket sales = dollars. For UConn, bigger fan support = penetrating major media markets (including NYC) which makes us very attractive to conferences.

Huskyfandan's scenario is pretty reasonable. The thing is, if it came to pass that the ACC was wrecked and carved up, then why would the big 4 conferences stop at 16? Huskyfandan's scenario leaves the whole northeast beyond Penn State and Maryland without a conference. I think there develops an incentive for the B1G to pick up Rutgers and UConn and grow to 18. Even the SEC might consider growing north from Va Tech. Either that or we get a national superconference made out of all the leftovers in sizeable media markets. UConn could be a big fish in that pond.

 

[Jax Husky]

Nelson, where are all these ACC teams going to go in your opinion? There are no more spots. Conferences aren't going to expand to 16 just because, and they aren't going to do it real soon. The one's who have just gone to 14 want to see how that works first. There aren't many moves left that the SEC can make that won't seriously dilude their product.

 

[pj]

Jax, we know the SEC wants to expand their TV footprint into major markets. Neglecting the states north of Kentucky which are cultural not inclined toward the SEC/South, the most populous states contiguous to the SEC footprint are Texas (#2 in population), North Carolina (#10), Virginia (#12), and Missouri (#18). They just expanded into Texas and Missouri. Now the top candidates are NC and Va. Why wouldn't their recent actions prove that they would love to grab UNC or NC State and Va Tech?

 

[Jax Husky]

Jax, we know the SEC wants to expand their TV footprint into major markets. Neglecting the states north of Kentucky which are cultural not inclined toward the SEC/South, the most populous states contiguous to the SEC footprint are Texas (#2 in population), North Carolina (#10), Virginia (#12), and Missouri (#18). They just expanded into Texas and Missouri. Now the top candidates are NC and Va. Why wouldn't their recent actions prove that they would love to grab UNC or NC State and Va Tech?

I don't see the SEC going after Va Tech, but maybe after North Carolina (and NC State). Those markets, however, aren't nearly comparable to the markets brought by the 2 additions they just made. If a school cannot bring major major eyeballs, they aren't getting invited. The only school I see that fits that bill is UNC, and for them it is as much because they are a national brand as anything.

 

[AJC88]

duke/wake/bc/cuse/pitt will get what kind of contract tv wise? besides some bball $$, nothing. so they get $5mil each a year.

uconn/ruty/usf/ucf/temple/navy/uh/smu/memphis etc... will get what kind of tv contract? as we already found out $14mil is looking good. but thats with sdsu/bsu so lets bump it down alot(for argument sake) to $10mil a year.

do you want $10mil a year with no GOR, 3 local rival games (ruty/tem/navy and possible a 4th in army), a built in trip to fl for recruiting looks every year, a built in trip to tex every year also among smaller things.

vs

$5mil a year and GOR for 10 years(so if we they get a BIG invite or w/e we then lose $$ on tv), 3 local rivals in bc/cuse/pitt, no trips to fl or tex, good bball and hang out with small catholic/pusssssy schools....

which one?


we are getting a brand new contract next year. the acc contract is locked in for the next 10+ years already and they want GOR now. why would we ever lock ourselves into that? ONLY way is if all the current school do which they aren't. fsu kept the buyout # down remember? clem formed a expansion club remember?

those 5 acc leftovers can come join our east coast league and help our tv contract if they want, no way we sell our sole to espn the way the acc contract is. i hope ruty is smelling blood like we are. susan smells it.

i'm ok with this BE(new tv contract) as the 5th conf behind the big 4 until we get the BIG call. This would be whats left after the b4 goto 16 and we need to goto 16.
uconn/bc/cuse/pitt/ruty/temple/army/navy/duke/wake/ucf/usf/mem/smu/uh/ecu or tulane
but its all about the contract!

we can't lock outselves into the acc with that contract unless all of the 14 now plus ruty or nd does it with us and all 16 are locked in. thats the only way we go(which is not likely).

Again, you're throwing out hypothetical numbers and situations. It's tough to argue against something that may or may not happen. As both conferences currently stand, ACC all day, no questions asked.

And you treat the grant of rights as a bad thing. If anything it's stabilizing, and is the main reason Waylon has been saying the B12 is now a stable conference despite suffering 4 departures in 2 years.

 

[sportsart]

Did someone move the ACC thread from the realignment board over here?

 

[Dann]

Again, you're throwing out hypothetical numbers and situations. It's tough to argue against something that may or may not happen. As both conferences currently stand, ACC all day, no questions asked.

And you treat the grant of rights as a bad thing. If anything it's stabilizing, and is the main reason Waylon has been saying the B12 is now a stable conference despite suffering 4 departures in 2 years.

GOR is good for uconn if the current acc 14 plus uconn and ruty all sign it together. that locks the 16 of us up together. i am 100% game for that the minute it happens. hell i'm game for uconn/ruty/temple/nd for 18 also.... what i'm not game for is:
GOR is bad if whats left of the acc is duke/wake/bc/cuse/pitt... and they want to add uconn/ruty/temple to shown life again. the 3 of us shouldn't go becuase we would have to sign the GOR with those teams. thats not a good enough home to join for a conf let alone sign GOR. espn wants acc gor and also is going to a arb for $$, poopies are hitting the fan quick for conf.

 

[Dann]

Did someone move the ACC thread from the realignment board over here?

i was thinking about moving this over. i'm getting out of hand so i might as well...

 

[Jax Husky]

GOR is good for uconn if the current acc 14 plus uconn and ruty all sign it together. that locks the 16 of us up together. i am 100% game for that the minute it happens. hell i'm game for uconn/ruty/temple/nd for 18 also.... what i'm not game for is:
GOR is bad if whats left of the acc is duke/wake/bc/cuse/pitt... and they want to add uconn/ruty/temple to shown life again. the 3 of us shouldn't go becuase we would have to sign the GOR with those teams. thats not a good enough home to join for a conf let alone sign GOR. espn wants acc gor and also is going to a arb for $$, poopies are hitting the fan quick for conf.

You kep stating these teams will be the conference. What do you suppose will happen to Miami, Georgia Tech, Maryland, UVA, VT, etc? I know you've put forth a scenario, but I just don't see that happening. For instance, your idea that UNLV would end up in the PAC is pure craziness. Never gonna happen. Where will Louisville and Cincy be? I think that just about any scenario that involves UConn leaving this new BE is a good one. This conference (from a football standpoint) is a dead man walking.

 

[Dann]

You kep stating these teams will be the conference. What do you suppose will happen to Miami, Georgia Tech, Maryland, UVA, VT, etc? I know you've put forth a scenario, but I just don't see that happening. For instance, your idea that UNLV would end up in the PAC is pure craziness. Never gonna happen. Where will Louisville and Cincy be? I think that just about any scenario that involves UConn leaving this new BE is a good one. This conference (from a football standpoint) is a dead man walking.

miami and gt follow fsu/clem. both of those schools bring big markets and recruit areas. both need a kick start to get the life back in there programs. an extra $10mil from a tv contract can do that...they follow not right away but a little later after they find out the sec is looking at va and nc.

the sec wants 2 markets. unc and ncst now see that the bacco road dream life is over. they know that together as 2 they can't sell a move somewhere becuase thats 2 teams for 1 market, they need to split. same with uva/vt. each schools can bring the state market with its fanbase, but 2 together doesn't make sense for a conf $$ wise. for vt/ncst to the sec and uva/unc to the b10.

the b10 will need 2 more and 1 of those ion the end will be nd. so its down to kansas, md, ruty, uconn for that last spot. kansas isn't enough tv wise and nd wants 1 more east market becuase nd is going to be in the new eastern division of the b10 with uva/unc/psu/tosu etc... md is having $$ issues so this would be a huge boost, they also bring dc. we all know ruty and uconns resumes. so they take md knowing that one day they can goto a8 and grab nyc with ruty/uconn. they fear that leaving dc untouchedcould hurt as the sec of 12 could expand more and grab it.

-unlv has a stadium in town ready to go and a great bball setup also
-its a big public and brand name
-has big boy bball that just came back to life
-vegas tv market, vegas for conf ships and stuff and that state is the odd state out right now of the pac, it fits. just in eyeballs, unlv works. now take a top 25 team every year in bsu, a national brand in byu and a up and coming school in unlv in the one mk in cali that the pac really doesn't have and there u go.....all west coast inventory is owned by the pac. the wac just died so idaho and nmst and crew are the big sky. they don't matter and the mwc has 10ish teams. all have no carry or real on field results besides fresno and unr. the nbe and cusa have no teams out there to add that matter so no west divisions then. the pac sitting pretty now...one day when confs goto 18, /fresno/unr can battle it out.

 

[Jax Husky]

miami and gt follow fsu/clem. both of those schools bring big markets and recruit areas. both need a kick start to get the life back in there programs. an extra $10mil from a tv contract can do that...they follow not right away but a little later after they find out the sec is looking at va and nc.

the sec wants 2 markets. unc and ncst now see that the bacco road dream life is over. they know that together as 2 they can't sell a move somewhere becuase thats 2 teams for 1 market, they need to split. same with uva/vt. each schools can bring the state market with its fanbase, but 2 together doesn't make sense for a conf $$ wise. for vt/ncst to the sec and uva/unc to the b10.

the b10 will need 2 more and 1 of those ion the end will be nd. so its down to kansas, md, ruty, uconn for that last spot. kansas isn't enough tv wise and nd wants 1 more east market becuase nd is going to be in the new eastern division of the b10 with uva/unc/psu/tosu etc... md is having $$ issues so this would be a huge boost, they also bring dc. we all know ruty and uconns resumes. so they take md knowing that one day they can goto a8 and grab nyc with ruty/uconn. they fear that leaving dc untouchedcould hurt as the sec of 12 could expand more and grab it.

-unlv has a stadium in town ready to go and a great bball setup also
-its a big public and brand name
-has big boy bball that just came back to life
-vegas tv market, vegas for conf ships and stuff and that state is the odd state out right now of the pac, it fits. just in eyeballs, unlv works. now take a top 25 team every year in bsu, a national brand in byu and a up and coming school in unlv in the one mk in cali that the pac really doesn't have and there u go.....all west coast inventory is owned by the pac. the wac just died so idaho and nmst and crew are the big sky. they don't matter and the mwc has 10ish teams. all have no carry or real on field results besides fresno and unr. the nbe and cusa have no teams out there to add that matter so no west divisions then. the pac sitting pretty now...one day when confs goto 18, /fresno/unr can battle it out.

There sure is a lot of conjecture in this post. UNLV is a nobody. Las Vegas is not a "big market". Miami and GT may want to follow FSU and Clemson, but I think it is a little shortsighted to think they will have that opportunity. BYU is independent by choice so they can have all their games on the Mormon network out west. They also don't fit in AT ALL philisophically with the rest of the PAC. I don't see them joining the PAC. The "west coast inventory" you speak of is a bunch of garbage. I just think you are overestimating that all these changes will occur. I don't see it.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Continue to win fans is more like it. Fan interest = TV audience & ticket sales = dollars. For UConn, bigger fan support = penetrating major media markets (including NYC) which makes us very attractive to conferences.

Huskyfandan's scenario is pretty reasonable. The thing is, if it came to pass that the ACC was wrecked and carved up, then why would the big 4 conferences stop at 16? Huskyfandan's scenario leaves the whole northeast beyond Penn State and Maryland without a conference. I think there develops an incentive for the B1G to pick up Rutgers and UConn and grow to 18. Even the SEC might consider growing north from Va Tech. Either that or we get a national superconference made out of all the leftovers in sizeable media markets. UConn could be a big fish in that pond.

PJ, last I thought, you gain new fans by winning. Winning games. Winning BIG games.

UConn, to my knowledge, has never played a football season anywhere near the top 25 in the rankings.

When UConn football, begins to play football as a regular top 25 ranked team, the fan bandwagon will be incredible. When top 25 ranked teams have come into Rentschler, the buzz and fan interest has been incredible. The most electric that I can remember the stadium being at any point since it was opened, was when North Carolina came in early in the season ranked at #19 I believe, and we had one of our strongest rosters in the Edsall era. Don't get me started on the game plan in that game.....

Scheduling and winning. Those are the common denominators. We haven't had a really big game in Rentschler for a while, and we haven't been anywhere near the top 25 in a while.

I expect that to change - this year.

 

[junglehusky]

C'mon Jax... dan has the compulsion to map out 10 chess moves at once, instead of just focusing on the next 2 moves. Since I'm not that good of a chess player I'll just ponder a few possible moves... we have heard rumors that the SEC was considering NC State (not UNC). I think they want to be geographically contiguous (Mizzou just touches arkansas, right?) so maybe they woudn't jump to Va Tech without NC State or another NC team. If FSU/Clemson entertain the B12's entreaties, and let's say VT and NC State go to the SEC, what do the ACC schools do? I imagine Miami and everyone else would start asking around, but would there be any landing spots? Would the B12 bring in Miami? For now I doubt it.

I think the wild card is the B1G. They run a tight ship so there's not too much to go on rumorwise. Maybe they make another run at ND. Maybe they want to add some northeastern flavor (UConn/Rutgers). Maybe they want to expand to the Mid-Atlantic with MD / UVA. Maybe they want UNC and GT. Those are all schools that fit their academic profile more or less. Who knows, maybe they'll consider BYU and Kansas. But I agree with Dan that if we get invited to a FSU/Clemson-less ACC with the condition that all remaning ACC schools (and UCOnn and whoever else is invited, ND or Rutgers) sign 10 years or whatever of TV rights as a blood oath, hells yeah we're gonna sign up for that. I think Herbst and her underlings will work the phone lines like crazy with Indianapolis and their contacts in the B1G right up until the paperwork is signed, but if we don't get an invite to the B1G we're going to the ACC.

 

[UConnDan97]

A couple of things:

1) Baylor et. al. must feel like they have hit the lottery, since they went from a scenario that essentially had them begging for a Big East invite (back when Texas, TT, OU, and OSU were rumored to the Pac) to now staring at the very real possibility of being in a conference that will offer them 30 million a year from their tv contract. Unreal.

2) God almighty, I f#^king hate the ACC....but if there are any of you on this board that really believe UConn will turn down an ACC offer, you need to put down the mushrooms and turn off the black light. If an invite comes, we are gone, my friends (*throws up in mouth), we are gone...

That is all. Carry on...

 

[Jimdish255]

They fill up 80k, seat venues, while were still working on getting 40k,

Ill give you Bama, but at 36, im old enough to remember when Florida wasn't a pimple on FSU 's behind.
Wasn't the till the old ball coach Steve Spurrier came along and then IF closed ground on the "free shoes state criminoles" as he referred to them.

You're not old enough to remember the FL teams before FSU's glory daze. Wasn't until the mid-80's and some NCAA sanctions that FSU caught up on the field.

 

[baggerbob]

The only ones doing all the spouting of dollar amts, are from west virginia, who is just getting into the big 12. Its strange how a conference that has lost 4 members, in the last 3 years is suddenly seen as a stable place to go. Sure fans like to speculate, but the presidents of Florida St and Clemson will talk to those at Missouri,Texas A&M, Nebraska, and Colorado and I would imagine not want to join as vassals to Texas.

 

[Fishy]

This thread has gone insane faster than the ACC thread did.

No matter how many supposed insiders we hear from or scenarios someone on some backwater message board comes up with, let's see Clemson and FSU go to the Big 12 first. The Big 12 was a dead man walking not that long ago and now they're going to pluck apart the ACC...let's see it happen somewhere other than a message board post before we go nuts.

And honestly, the next mother***er who posts something as insane as UNLV getting invited to the PAC 12 gets banned for as long as the universe exists. Speculation is fine, being a lunatic is not.

 

[coachcap]

This thread has gone insane faster than the ACC thread did.

No matter how many supposed insiders we hear from or scenarios someone on some backwater message board comes up with, let's see Clemson and FSU go to the Big 12 first. The Big 12 was a dead man walking not that long ago and now they're going to pluck apart the ACC...let's see it happen somewhere other than a message board post before we go nuts.

And honestly, the next mother***er who posts something as insane as UNLV getting invited to the PAC 12 gets banned for as long as the universe exists. Speculation is fine, being a lunatic is not.

Oh Geez, & I was about to propose North Dakota State to the B1G...

 

[traitor71]

You're not old enough to remember the FL teams before FSU's glory daze. Wasn't until the mid-80's and some NCAA sanctions that FSU caught up on the field.

The timing was close, but Bowden had FSU playing in the Orange Bowl against Oklahoma in 80 and 81 so he had that program on it's way a few years before Charley Pell's Gators fell by the wayside. Of course it isn't like Florida was really doing anything special back then, they were definitely the last of the Florida big three to realize their potential as a program.

 

[Nostical]

Susan Herbst is the absolute lynchpin in this discussion. Her special genius in perceiving this University in places never before imagined, and executing like no President before her, should give us confidence that we'll be fine in the end. When she came into office she recognized instantly that we'd been sleepwalking for years in the fundraising arena. While the legislature had funded the campus infrastructure, we had failed to aggressively pursue the necessary steps for UConn to achieve a much higher academic standing.
She also understood fully that big time sports are the front porch of the university (knowing full well that our athletic success played a big part in getting those legislative funds in the first place). So she moved quickly, decisively, and intelligently. She replaced the AD, the Provost and quite a few less visible others. She also instilled a sense of urgency and responsiveness never seen before in the academic halls and the fundraising offices. She hired Warde Manuel, who, despite his Buffalo pedigree, she saw as one of the players who was at the “table” with a lot of the other important AD's at major schools. He had connections, and he was a Michigan man.
Now, as she swiftly moves UConn along in the academic and endowment arenas, she also understands we must move our athletics to a better place. In fact she sees it as imperative that we protect and expand our athletic franchise. So, for example, despite the polite conversation, there is no way that Kevin Ollie will succeed Jim Calhoun. She’s not about to put her crown jewel BBall program in the hands of someone with no head coaching experience. Had she been in office earlier, the likelihood is that Coach P would not be the football coach--forget about a Burton outcry, she would have doubled his support. She will be the one to push for stadium expansion at the right time. She will continue to be probing and demanding to achieve her aspiration for UConn to be “more Michigan than Maryland”.
My bet is that given the breathing room she has enjoyed since those chaotic, out of the blue, "beg harder" days, she is well on her way to positioning us for a very soft landing in a very attractive place.

 

[Dann]

unlv to the pac16!

 

[HuskyDogArt]

unlv to the pac16!

Are you kidding???

 

[uconnfan68]

Susan Herbst is the absolute lynchpin in this discussion. Her special genius in perceiving this University in places never before imagined, and executing like no President before her, should give us confidence that we'll be fine in the end. When she came into office she recognized instantly that we'd been sleepwalking for years in the fundraising arena. While the legislature had funded the campus infrastructure, we had failed to aggressively pursue the necessary steps for UConn to achieve a much higher academic standing.
She also understood fully that big time sports are the front porch of the university (knowing full well that our athletic success played a big part in getting those legislative funds in the first place). So she moved quickly, decisively, and intelligently. She replaced the AD, the Provost and quite a few less visible others. She also instilled a sense of urgency and responsiveness never seen before in the academic halls and the fundraising offices. She hired Warde Manuel, who, despite his Buffalo pedigree, she saw as one of the players who was at the “table” with a lot of the other important AD's at major schools. He had connections, and he was a Michigan man.
Now, as she swiftly moves UConn along in the academic and endowment arenas, she also understands we must move our athletics to a better place. In fact she sees it as imperative that we protect and expand our athletic franchise. So, for example, despite the polite conversation, there is no way that Kevin Ollie will succeed Jim Calhoun. She’s not about to put her crown jewel BBall program in the hands of someone with no head coaching experience. Had she been in office earlier, the likelihood is that Coach P would not be the football coach--forget about a Burton outcry, she would have doubled his support. She will be the one to push for stadium expansion at the right time. She will continue to be probing and demanding to achieve her aspiration for UConn to be “more Michigan than Maryland”.
My bet is that given the breathing room she has enjoyed since those chaotic, out of the blue, "beg harder" days, she is well on her way to positioning us for a very soft landing in a very attractive place.

I'm sure there was some sarcasm in that short story, but lots of truth as well (from my perspective). I "hope" (and I've heard what an empty word that is, ie. could be "ceiling" instead and mean as much) that she's as good a judge of character as she seems projected to be by the media and others. I think Coach P was a daring pick at the time, bur I also think it was brilliant in retrospect. He has solidified our recruiting in the Northeast, including NY and NJ. We never get Casey Cochrane without him, whether he's the next "one" or not. He brought an NFL-style into Storrs, and it will only make it easier to get quality kids looking for a great football education, in addition to good academics. I'm sure KO will get a fair shake in any discussion of the next MBB position. From what I've read here, he isn't sure himself of his future plans (NBA?). Has she ruffled feathers? I'm sure she has. Every change at the top means someone's feathers get ruffled below. I'm already much more impressed by her actions than I was of Hogan by the time he left.

 

[Stinger92860]

Do we get Stewart without Coach P? I think it's less likely.

 

[huskypantz]

Do we get Stewart without Coach P? I think it's less likely.

He'd be at Temple, Cuse or BC.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Even if FSU and Clemson go, it is not necessarily good for UConn. The ACC may choose to stay at 12.

Or, I could see FSU and Clemson departures causing VTech to re-engage with the SEC, maybe taking NC State with them. The SEC will try for UNC, but I think UNC would prefer to be in the Big 10 if they were not in the ACC. I think philosophically, UNC would be very reluctant to affiliate with programs like Auburn and Alabama, particularly after the Butch Davis experience.

The Big 10 is all about markets for the BTN, and NC, MD and VA are three of the best markets adjacent to Big 10 country, and all are growing whereas the Big 10 markets are all shrinking. I could see a situation where all 3 pursue Big 10 membership, and the Big 10 accepts them, because in the big 10 revenue model, it is not locked into network TV contracts to expand its top line.

Here is where my theory about what happens next gets a bit creative. I don't see Duke, Wake, et al getting real excited about joining a league with UCF and Memphis. If 6 or 7 ACC schools have left or are trying to leave, I could see the rest deciding that they are not the SEC or the Big 10, and really don't want to be. But the TV rights market is so frothy, they could make incredible dollars by historical standards, without sinking into the cesspool that is big time football.

So Duke, Wake, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and maybe Miami decide to go for the top academics. They invite Northwestern, Vanderbilt, maybe Rice, Tulane and Villanova. Add Notre Dame and Georgetown as basketball only members. That ACC would get a decent, not spectacular contract, especially if Notre Dame was affiliated.

The Big 10 lets Northwestern go as a 1 for 3 swap to get the MD, VA and NC markets for the BTN. The SEC may squawk, but I suspect most SEC schools would be happy to see Vanderbilt go, and maybe they take Miami or TCU or WVU if they have not signed the GOR yet. The Big 12 replaces TCU with Louisville, and maybe grabs BYU and Cincinnati if it wants to expand to 14.

In that scenario, UConn and Rutgers are totally screwed. Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Villanova are gone. Without Louisville and Cincinnati, with with the 3 hoops schools gone, NBC may not be interested anymore so Boise and SDSU decide to stay home in the MWC.

 

[coachcap]

Even if FSU and Clemson go, it is not necessarily good for UConn. The ACC may choose to stay at 12.

Or, I could see FSU and Clemson departures causing VTech to re-engage with the SEC, maybe taking NC State with them. The SEC will try for UNC, but I think UNC would prefer to be in the Big 10 if they were not in the ACC. I think philosophically, UNC would be very reluctant to affiliate with programs like Auburn and Alabama, particularly after the Butch Davis experience.

The Big 10 is all about markets for the BTN, and NC, MD and VA are three of the best markets adjacent to Big 10 country, and all are growing whereas the Big 10 markets are all shrinking. I could see a situation where all 3 pursue Big 10 membership, and the Big 10 accepts them, because in the big 10 revenue model, it is not locked into network TV contracts to expand its top line.

Here is where my theory about what happens next gets a bit creative. I don't see Duke, Wake, et al getting real excited about joining a league with UCF and Memphis. If 6 or 7 ACC schools have left or are trying to leave, I could see the rest deciding that they are not the SEC or the Big 10, and really don't want to be. But the TV rights market is so frothy, they could make incredible dollars by historical standards, without sinking into the cesspool that is big time football.

So Duke, Wake, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and maybe Miami decide to go for the top academics. They invite Northwestern, Vanderbilt, maybe Rice, Tulane and Villanova. Add Notre Dame and Georgetown as basketball only members. That ACC would get a decent, not spectacular contract, especially if Notre Dame was affiliated.

The Big 10 lets Northwestern go as a 1 for 3 swap to get the MD, VA and NC markets for the BTN. The SEC may squawk, but I suspect most SEC schools would be happy to see Vanderbilt go, and maybe they take Miami or TCU or WVU if they have not signed the GOR yet. The Big 12 replaces TCU with Louisville, and maybe grabs BYU and Cincinnati if it wants to expand to 14.

In that scenario, UConn and Rutgers are totally screwed. Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Villanova are gone. Without Louisville and Cincinnati, with with the 3 hoops schools gone, NBC may not be interested anymore so Boise and SDSU decide to stay home in the MWC.

You almost had me until you sent Northwestern to the ACC. They have had recent success in football with appearances in the Rose Bowl, they get their stipend from the BTN, & I don't think that your vision for a new ACC would ever compensate them for loss of revenue that B1G members receive.

 

[mavblues]

So Duke, Wake, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and maybe Miami decide to go for the top academics. They invite Northwestern, Vanderbilt, maybe Rice, Tulane and Villanova. Add Notre Dame and Georgetown as basketball only members.