UConn vs So. Carolina prediction thread | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UConn vs So. Carolina prediction thread

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RockyMTblue2 said:
I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.
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how about if you reserve the right to change your estimate?!

My point is a lot can change even over the course of a few weeks. Case in point - Gabby was getting good minutes then suddenly the SJU game was sort of tough and she got only 2 minutes. Chong was also getting good PT and then bam... SJU and she gets 6 minutes. Only Stokes got close to 20 minutes (19).

Since then UCONN has had super easy games and Chong and Williams have gotten LOTS of PT. BUT how will they fare against a team like SC? I think that's a fair question.

So a lot changed for them in a few weeks. And a lot can change in the next few weeks as well...
 
Kia's experience as the starting point guard on Canada's national team negates Mitchell's experience. Kia does not make a lot of mistakes, and she is very strong, as can be seen when she drives to the basket, takes contact and still makes the shot. UConn has to stay out of foul trouble, control the defensive boards and limit the turnovers, no wasted trips down the floor. UConn 78-68.
 
JoePgh said:
I agree, and I think everyone who has commented also agrees, that if UConn hits 3's the way that they have been hitting in recent games, a UConn loss is extremely improbable, and a blowout win is possible. But, as Geno has said on many occasions, accurate 3-ball shooting is not something you can take to the bank. If you depend on that to win games, you are going to lose some games to good competition.

So let me suggest this as a subtopic of this discussion: Hypothetically, if UConn is cold on its 3-point shooting in the South Carolina game (under 30%, let's say), how does UConn win? And by how much? I would say that under those circumstances, a win by more than 10 points is unlikely. I would also say that in that case, the transition game has to be running like a Swiss watch. Every defensive rebound by UConn has to at least threaten a runout and score. I think that is realistic, particularly if the Gamecocks "blitz" by throwing 3 or 4 players at the offensive boards. I don't think South Carolina is used to playing a full game at that pace, and UConn is quite capable of doing that. I think A'ja Wilson will get winded and become ineffective long before the end of the game, just as Duke's Azura Stevens did, if she has to run up and down the floor in that kind of a game.

The transition game may be the Huskies' ace in the hole.
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Great analysis- and here they play a much longer bench, and we think we can run them to death. And I think u r right.
 
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iamcbs said:
We've all seen how Connecticut plays in 'big' games. This one will be no different. UConn runs its offense to well and has too many options for S. Carolina to defend. UConn defends too well and Geno has a habit of designing a defense that not only takes away the opposition's best player, but stymies what they do best on offense. UConn can go big with Kiah, Stewie and Morgan and KML out top with MoJet. They can play equally effectively small with their original starting 5. UConn will speed S.Carolina up and force them into a pce that they aren't comfortable playing. UConn will win this game by 20 at least.
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U know- as I was reading your post- I think we are going to see a lot of Gabby also- to keep this game fast and up tempo!!!
 
I was listening to the Duke broadcast team Sunday, and they were talking about the upcoming UCONN-SC game. The color analyst said without a doubt that UCONN would have no trouble with South Carolina, and would win by at least 20 points.
 
I think that it will be close through much of the game, but UCONN ultimately pulls it out. Go Huskies!!
 
UConn 75 to 60. SC will have a hard time scoring more than 60 against us. I don't understand the comments above about possible foul trouble. We are one of the best teams at playing tough defense and not fouling. Sure it is a risk, but not one that is bigger then going cold on our outside shooting. What gives me confidence is that we seemed to have improved quite a bit on defense since the debacle in Palo Alto.
 
RockyMTblue2 said:
I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.
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The SC Board, for those who have an interest, is...

http://www.cockytalk.com/index.php

Women's basketball is found under their "Foul Shots" forum. You can check out their comments about UConn and the upcoming game...
 
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I think UCONN rolls in this one. When you look at match up by match up, South Carolina could compete, but they just don't play cohesive basketball like Connecticut does. South Carolina isn't a great offensive team, they don't have many threats from the outside and haven't scored well against ranked teams. On the flip side, UConn is hands down the best offensive team in the nation. They have a MOV of 40 points per game. Every player on the roster has an A/TO ratio of 1:1 or better besides the walk-ons and Williams (who has 23 assists to 24 turnovers.) UCONN shoots 54% from the floor as a team, with all major contributors shooting 50% or better besides Chong at 44%. UCONN's big three point threats (Jefferson/KML/Nurse) combine to shoot over 50% from long range. UCONN crushed Notre Dame by 18 and Duke by 31. 16 of UCONN's 19 games have been won by 30+. I'm not predicting another 30+ margin, but I think 20-25 is more realistic. 80-55 UCONN.
 
Glenn said:
UConn 75 to 60. SC will have a hard time scoring more than 60 against us. I don't understand the comments above about possible foul trouble. We are one of the best teams at playing tough defense and not fouling. Sure it is a risk, but not one that is bigger then going cold on our outside shooting. What gives me confidence is that we seemed to have improved quite a bit on defense since the debacle in Palo Alto.
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I think u hit the nail on the head with your prediction and analysis- I'm at 72-58 ish!
 
Great job Cferr. Im surprised that so many fans are predicting SC to score more points against UConn then they average against top competition. SC averages per Nan in another thread 66 pts against top teams and UConn averages 82. So I don't see this as a close game. I don't think SC scores 66 pts against UConns defense and I think that UConn will be somewhere around 82. Taking into consideration that SC is averaging 66 against teams not as big as UConn and UConn being so good defensively I have to think SC will have problems scoring 55 pts against UConn. I don't think the refs will decide this game either. SC is not a 3 pt shooting team. So I expect UConn to not play SC close at 3 pt line. I also expect Mitchell to be blanketed and UConn to do a lot of doublings down when the ball goes inside. So if the ball goes inside and SC kicks it out so what they don't shoot the trey very well or very often. One other thing UConn is very good cutting off the passing lanes.

SC will have to come out and guard UConn allowing UConn to take the trey of penetrate and dish it off. UConn is shooting the trey well especially Kia MoJeff and KML. So our guards will demand SC to come out and guard them. I know I said in one post UConn by 25 and in another post UConn by 20 and I will wait to come up with a score but I can tell you this I don't see SC winning this game as UConn can put up 80 pts not firing on all cylinders because so many players can score inside and out. SC can not score 65 pts against UConn with everybody firing on all cylinders. UConns defense will win this game big.
 
bballnut90 said:
I think UCONN rolls in this one. When you look at match up by match up, South Carolina could compete, but they just don't play cohesive basketball like Connecticut does. South Carolina isn't a great offensive team, they don't have many threats from the outside and haven't scored well against ranked teams. On the flip side, UConn is hands down the best offensive team in the nation. They have a MOV of 40 points per game. Every player on the roster has an A/TO ratio of 1:1 or better besides the walk-ons and Williams (who has 23 assists to 24 turnovers.) UCONN shoots 54% from the floor as a team, with all major contributors shooting 50% or better besides Chong at 44%. UCONN's big three point threats (Jefferson/KML/Nurse) combine to shoot over 50% from long range. UCONN crushed Notre Dame by 18 and Duke by 31. 16 of UCONN's 19 games have been won by 30+. I'm not predicting another 30+ margin, but I think 20-25 is more realistic. 80-55 UCONN.
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Couldn't have said it better myself!
 
UConn 81 - SC 63

I like Coates a whole lot. Wilson is the goods. What scares me is Mitchell, not because of the hype, but because when she isn't hitting, she takes a page from Odessey Sims, driving to the hoop desperately out of control with out a chance of scoring, but instead of an offensive charge call from the officials, she is rewarded with a blocking foul on the defender, thereby getting herself to the line. I've seen four games this season and it is clearly a pattern.

Don't get me wrong, I rather enjoyed seeing her pressing last night and I hope we put her in that same zone, but I don't want us in foul trouble because officials can't make the call.
 
the OP's assessment is pretty well reasoned, but of course, I think the Gamecocks will win because of our experience with tight games and deep bench. I would like to ask why you're overlooking your next 3 games before you play USC, though.
 
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RockyMTblue2 said:
I'll hold my guestimate until closer to the contest. I just note in passing that at home, against a far less than top 10 team SC got into serious foul trouble and scored very few very far from the basket in a game in witch the referees ignored the 3 second whistle on the SC offensive end. By the way, when he's home on his board the leghorn calls you all "arrogant." But keep liking his posts that ridicule tonyc...for whatever reason.
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Do you not find predictions of 30 point victories to be arrogant?
 
JoePgh asked; Hypothetically, if UConn is cold on its 3-point shooting in the South Carolina game (under 30%, let's say), how does UConn win? And by how much?

FearlessFoxForcasting (not affiliated with Fox News) says; If the Huskies go, say, 3/15, they win by maybe 11-13 points. They do it on defense, disciplined multi-player offense and simply outlasting SCar. For every 3 over 3, add 3. Hard to imagine MoJet, Kia, SuperK and Stewie all having cold 3-point games, but it could happen.
 
cockhrnleghrn said:
the OP's assessment is pretty well reasoned, but of course, I think the Gamecocks will win because of our experience with tight games and deep bench. I would like to ask why you're overlooking your next 3 games before you play USC, though.
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Not overlooking the next three games...just musing the time away while we waited for the Record Setting Blizzard that didn't happen... We are just fans and while we have the luxury of looking ahead and doing these prediction threads on the Boneyard...be assured that Geno and staff have the team focused on the game in front of them and nothing else...it is always one game at a time with UConn... This isn't their first rodeo!
 
I posted this on another thread but it applies here as well!


The game at Gampel on Feb. 9th is SoCar 1st time on the big stage in front of those 10,000+ screaming UCONN fans, with all the 9 NC banners, The Wall of Honor, nat'l tv audience, them #1, UCONN #2, time for bs is over, put up the big performance, UCONN has been there many times SoCar never has! MD, ND, PSU, Duke, NoCar, recently has shown up and thought they couldn't lose and did by 20 or more points! And before you throw in Stanford last November, UCONN lost the game Stanford didn't win it! The team now is not even close to the horror show that showed up in Palo Alto on that day!
I think Dawn Staley is feeling too full of herself, and the cockiness that made her a great player will work against her as a coach on her team's 1st big performance!
Until you step on the court at crunch time you are not prepared for the tightness in the pit of your belly as you line up in the center for the ball toss at the start of the game! I truly feel SoCar while very talented will play negatively different than they have all season that night!
UCONN by 20+ points, possibly 70 to 48!
 
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What of Dawn is hired to replace Geno when he retires? Could happen.
 
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cockhrnleghrn said:
Do you not find predictions of 30 point victories to be arrogant?
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Why would you say that. Its not arrogant its fact. UConn beats a lot of good teams by 30 pts. Most by 20+. Heck early in the season when UConn was not playing all that well had a 28 pt turn around at ND and ND is a very good team. Im sorry if you think its arrogant however it is fact. I can see this game, depending on how big of a lead UConn has and how Geno manages the game anywhere between 15 and 30+ pts. No disrespect to SC or their fans but that's what UConn does to teams. I expect Geno to call of the dogs at some point but it wont be until late in the game. I think WCBB fans will understand more when the watch the game. UConn right now is almost unbeatable because of the level theyre at and at the level they are consistently playing to that level an above. Take into consideration that Stewie and KML aren't carrying this team. The team is being carried by all its player who can pick up for each other when somebody is having an off game.
 
I think for the Feb 9th game the Huskies should change their nickname to the UConn Henpeckers. Not sure what the mascot graphics would look like. Any suggestions?:)
 
With what the SoCar fans are saying comparing the dregs of the AAC to the 'riches of the SEC". When was the last time the SEC won a National Title? Let alone make a Final Four Championship game! And TX am was a member of the Big 12 when they won in 2011!
 
RSHERMVIKES said:
I posted this on another thread but it applies here as well!


The game at Gampel on Feb. 9th is SoCar 1st time on the big stage in front of those 10,000+ screaming UCONN fans, with all the 9 NC banners, The Wall of Honor, nat'l tv audience, them #1, UCONN #2, time for bs is over, put up the big performance, UCONN has been there many times SoCar never has! MD, ND, PSU, Duke, NoCar, recently has shown up and thought they couldn't lose and did by 20 or more points! And before you throw in Stanford last November, UCONN lost the game Stanford didn't win it! The team now is not even close to the horror show that showed up in Palo Alto on that day!
I think Dawn Staley is feeling too full of herself, and the cockiness that made her a great player will work against her as a coach on her team's 1st big performance!
Until you step on the court at crunch time you are not prepared for the tightness in the pit of your belly as you line up in the center for the ball toss at the start of the game! I truly feel SoCar while very talented will play negatively different than they have all season that night!
UCONN by 20+ points, possibly 70 to 48!
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I tend to agree with you about the potential "big stage" effect on SC, as well as on the likely outcome of the game. With respect to the Stanford game, I know what you are saying, and yes, the current UConn team is now a very different unit from the one that lost at Palo Alto, but, much as we hate it, credit must go out to Stanford. They certainly did win the game...and made the Huskies a much better team as a result. But where I must disagree with you is relative to your rather negative outlook on Dawn. Is she, not unlike GA himself, self-assured, cocky (no pun intended), and a bit arrogant? Sure, and why not...look what she has put together in a relatively short space of time. I, like some others, tend to complain about lack of parity in WCBB. Some on this board correctly respond to those complaints by saying, in essence, "Look, that's not UConn's fault. It's the responsibility of other programs to step it up!" I agree. So here comes Dawn, who's done just that. We all ought to applaud her for it, and even give a nod of appreciation to the kind of contentious personality traits that helped her put it all together. Not to be repetitive, but we UConn fans have read that book before. I know that many here do not share my feelings, but I would much rather see many more intense rivalries develop with more agonizing nail-biters to watch that to sit through many more of the yawners we've been witnessing lately. It's hard to watch so many games being televised these days that show 3/4 empty arenas. Good competition is the only remedy for that, the game needs it, and we all ought to be in favor of it. Thanks, Dawn, for doing your part!
 
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