UConn vs So. Carolina prediction thread

[FairView]

Man, this thread is fun to read!

 

[PalPa]

Man, this thread is fun to read!

I agree, but I do find the posts from some non UCONN fans to be arrogant and boorish.

 

[rvwsleep]

Please understand: the point presented is that against tough opponents in tight games, the bench plays less to almost nothing, and the starters play more. In not so tight games against lesser opponents, the bench plays more minutes and the starters play less.

What's wrong with this scenario? Nothing. You present USC's game against Duke to illustrate that scenario, and that's OK. It's actually a logical approach to those difficult games against difficult opponents.

Does it addrress my point? Not really. Because in UConn's case - which I was pointing out earlier - UConn keeps it's starters in games against the lesser opponents in not so tight games. If UConn was keeping it's top 5 in games where the score always stayed within 10 points, no one here would ever read a post from me about that. They haven't yet. WHY? Because I don't have any issue with that, and probably never will. I have never tried to make any case against that scenario. So why the confusion.

I was simply pointing out that UConn plays it's starters more than USC does on average, and that it's bench plays less and contributes less than USC's bench does, on average. THEN I pointed out that UConn typically beats it's opponents more decisively than USC beats it's opponents. The not so tightly contested type of games. Does that have anything much to do with your response to me above, or to your observation about the USC-Duke game?


No, not really....

YOU brought up the Duke game as a "solid example" in your response to Tony C. Here is your quote:

"One solid example may be the Duke game: at their place, a top-10 opponent that USC doesn't play very often. USC played 10 players.
USC has it's system, and UConn has it's. Coach Staley prefers to give her reserves of mostly younger, inexperienced players (only one senior among them) as much experience as possible and learn how to become contributors in tight game situations, while Auriemma prefers to rely more on his veteran starters to dictate the game outcomes - even against lesser opponents who are greatly out-matched before the 1st halves are decided - rather than let his reserves use the moot periods late in games to hone their craft."

Clearly, you specifically use the Duke game as an example of USC using 10 players in a tight game and then go on to explain the different philosophies each coach has in tight games. What escapes you is that in close games they really have the same philosophy. They shorten the bench as much as possible. Using the Duke game as an example of playing 10 in a close game is ridiculous when 3 of those bench players COMBINED for only 10 minutes of play. Does UConn's starters play more than USC's ? Yes, about 3 minutes a game on average but here are a couple of other points. Sagarin has UConn's schedule so far as higher rated than USC's. As UConn's schedule gets easier and USC's more difficult, I expect the minutes played by each teams starters to even out. Did you know that Mitchell and Stewart are playing the same amount ? (27.7 mins a game). So you see, there really isn't that much difference between how the teams use their personnel.

 

[JoePgh]

Man, this thread is fun to read!

I assume that was meant sarcastically.

Other than the comparative data about bench playing time, most of the posts here in recent days seem more appropriate for the Cesspool.

 

[CTyankee]

I would say another program that has had a massive amount of top ten talent and is right up there with Tennessee and may have actually had more top ten kids in the past 20 years than has Connecticut. It seems almost every other year Duke has a number 1 ranked recruiting class or at least is in the running to have one. I'm not as familiar with their names and I don't follow the WNBA too much but I can assure you that there's not nearly the amount of Duke players who've played in the WNBA and elsewhere, who have had the successful professional careers that have UConn kids. Not even close!

I think the ones who did not make the WNBA are waiting on tables...

 

[connboy77]

Well then we all must breathe a sigh of relief that Coach Staley has already scheduled USC to play UConn twice before, so that "culture shock" you speak of won't be there this season. As well as playing #1 Stanford, and #1 Tennessee in past seasons...

How many of the current players on SC have played against UCONN?

 

[HuskyNan]

Please understand: the point presented is that against tough opponents in tight games, the bench plays less to almost nothing, and the starters play more. In not so tight games against lesser opponents, the bench plays more minutes and the starters play less.

What's wrong with this scenario? Nothing. You present USC's game against Duke to illustrate that scenario, and that's OK. It's actually a logical approach to those difficult games against difficult opponents.

Does it addrress my point? Not really. Because in UConn's case - which I was pointing out earlier - UConn keeps it's starters in games against the lesser opponents in not so tight games. If UConn was keeping it's top 5 in games where the score always stayed within 10 points, no one here would ever read a post from me about that. They haven't yet. WHY? Because I don't have any issue with that, and probably never will. I have never tried to make any case against that scenario. So why the confusion.

I was simply pointing out that UConn plays it's starters more than USC does on average, and that it's bench plays less and contributes less than USC's bench does, on average. THEN I pointed out that UConn typically beats it's opponents more decisively than USC beats it's opponents. The not so tightly contested type of games. Does that have anything much to do with your response to me above, or to your observation about the USC-Duke game?


No, not really....

Once more...

Geno started the season with a roster of 12.

- One young woman didn't want to be here and she left the program after 6 games. Since she didn't want to be here, she didn't compete hard so she didn't play much.

- One young woman was injured and unavailable for the first 10 games. She is slowly being worked into the rotation to build up her strength and confidence. Still, she's averaging 14 minutes a game.

That leaves 10 players, 8 of whom see significant playing time. Of the other two, one is a walk-on, and inexperienced, as is the other young women that had been a walk-on but is now a scholarship player. These two young women are hard-working and play full out but they are former Division II recruits. Geno isn't going to have them play against the other teams' starters because he does not put players into positions where they don't have a chance to succeed. There is no payoff in hurting these young women's confidence.

 

[triaddukefan]

Kind folks.... .. can we please leave Duke out of this discussion..... I'd like to read this thread for enjoyment. Thanks

 

[Sluconn Husky]

No prediction, but updated offensive and defensive efficiencies:

O-: UConn 127, South Carolina: 116

D-: UConn 69, South Carolina 73


For comparison, the last two UConn teams had nearly the same ratios as each other.

12-13 UConn: 119, 71

13-14 UConn: 120, 71


To give one more example, the undefeated Baylor team of '12 finished with 114, 75 ratios.


South Carolina's numbers are terrific, but UConn's are otherworldly, especially on offense.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Just 10 days more of turning basketball into baseball stats and then they'll play. Then we'll have 2 more months of arguing until ND knocks SC out of the elite 8 and then... well, you know the rest.

 

[Tonyc]

All that matters is who is playing in the SC UConn game. Im sure SC will have short minutes after the first 7 players. With that said I hope Dawn plays 10 deep in the UConn game and those inexperienced kids get 10 minutes. If that happens the game will be over sooner.

Again all this arguing about time played and height and all the rest of the stuff your arguing about. The bottom line is UConn will win this game big and it wont matter who played and who didn't. The only thing that will matter is UConn being number 1 in the polls and everybody knows already they are number 1 in WCBB.

I can tell you UConn is primed for this game and they are not worried, they are looking to pounce on SC. I can also tell you somewhere in the back of every SC player head and SC coaches head is doubt and worry and a lot of "IFs". If SC doesn't come out like lions and come out like lambs, UConn will go on an early run and you can bet this game will be over in the 1st half.

 

[Zorro]

Well, sir, I think that we would all have to admit that this thread IS full of sound and fury!

 

[HoopsFan21]

I just want to know what some of you will do if South Carolina wins? It technically won't be an upset since South Carolina is currently ranked as the best team in the country. Will you gorge on ice cream? Not bother with the internet for a week? Eat lots of fried and greasy comfort food? How will you cope should the final score end up 73-67 South Carolina?

 

[rvwsleep]

The question was asked by tonyc how USC would respond to getting worn down themselves in a tight game against a quality opponent like UConn. He turned the question - which was submitted for UConn - around to USC. I stated that the Duke game may be a solid example, because it was on their floor, it was a very tight game, and Duke was highly ranked. It's only my opinion. No one has to agree with it, but certainly shouldn't get upset over it.

But then people questioned the validity of the number of USC players that actually appeared in the Duke game. They started rationalizing and subjecting, and before one knew it, players that played in the game no longer existed, nor should be regarded. Yes, Gaines only played 1 minute, but she also contributed to the game's outcome. She got a certain steal in that 1 minute that was unarguably the most important steal of the game, and without such USC probably would've lost. In fact, Gaines got 2 steals in that 1 minute. So, her participation mattered.

If a player gets into a game, then she counts. When I compared the # of players who played in each team's conference games, I didn't dissect how many minutes they played, or if they led their team in a major statistical category, etc. If they count, then they should count, simply put.

But my comparison was the usage of each team's reserves in games played this season, in a general sense. How one team used its bench more than the other, despite having a harder time winning its games than the other. In tight games, it makes sense that younger, inexperienced players might not see the court. It's too risky putting them into critical situations that they might not be ready for. So I understand the concept - it really wasn't something I was arguing against.

In your response to me, you challenged the validity of USC bench players playing quality minutes in tightly-contested games versus Duke & Syracuse, and essentially discounted Gamecock players who factually appeared in those games because YOU deemed their contributions unworthy of mentioning. I must disagree, as I haven't discredited any of UConn's reserves playing in their games for the same reasons. If they appeared in the official stats, I counted them.

But most importantly, it missed the point I made earlier: that the comparison I made overall on each team's usage of their reserves seem to indicate that USC uses it's bench more than UConn has, in games that were more closely fought than UConn's games have been. This based on the average margin of victory for each team.

As far as the Sagarin's SOS for each team's schedules: it doesn't really matter. If a team is ahead by 5 points in the 2nd half of a game and sends out it's reserves - compared to a team that's ahead by 35 points in the 2nd half of a game, and keeps it's starters in the game - what matter does anybody's SOS ranking make in my argument?

Thank You for giving me the option not to agree with you. And I'm not upset about it. I consider this an exercise in patience and my good deed for the day.
Your quote: "you challenged the validity of USC bench players playing quality minutes in tightly-contested games versus Duke & Syracuse, and essentially discounted Gamecock players who factually appeared in those games because YOU deemed their contributions unworthy of mentioning. I must disagree, as I haven't discredited any of UConn's reserves playing in their games for the same reasons. If they appeared in the official stats, I counted them."
That's correct. I challenged the validity of the S.Carolina bench playing quality minutes in the Duke game because they didn't !! In fact one of them didn't even play minutes, she played only one and another played 3 in the same game. I made the judgement that a player in the game for only 1 minute should not be counted as a viable substitute and so did her coach or she would have played longer. And I would make that judgement regardless of which team she plays for. Do you make any distinctions among the substitutes ? Are they all the same as long as they get in ? If a team had 15 players on the roster and 10 of them played only one minute each, would you consider that to be a team with a very deep bench ?
I brought up the SOS as an indication that at the start of the season UConn played tougher teams than they would be playing in the AAC. In fact in AAC games the UConn starters have averaged just about 23 minutes a game this year. That would be almost exactly the same amount of time played by the S. Carolina starters this season. As the schedule has gotten easier, the UConn starters minutes have gone down. I'm pretty sure that S.Carolina's starters minutes have trended upward in SEC games as compared to their easier ooc schedule. Also, as Nan pointed out, In some of these games Uconn had only 8 players (not counting Pulido and Lawlor) after Edwards left and before Ekmark was healthy enough to play. The differences are really miniscule and what I don't understand is why you would want to post about insignificant differences on another teams board ? For what purpose ? One last question and it only requires an opinion. How many S. Carolina players will be in for more than 10 minutes in the game against UConn ?

 

[NewCorn]

83-60. SC has had competitive games vs several teams UConn would have routed.

I agree. A team that scored 60 against Missouri will have a hard time scoring 60 against Uconn. Huskies, 85-60.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Well then we all must breathe a sigh of relief that Coach Staley has already scheduled USC to play UConn twice before, so that "culture shock" you speak of won't be there this season. As well as playing #1 Stanford, and #1 Tennessee in past seasons...

Susan Walvius scheduled the previous 2 games - one was in her last year as USC's coach and the return game was in Dawn's 1st season. Susan is now selling performance sheets.

 

[rocky rococo]

Well, sir, I think that we would all have to admit that this thread IS full of sound and fury!

With the usual significance of sound and fury.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Well said Big. But what most forget when comparing the two is that Dawn was in the Final Four multiple times, an All American, an Olympian, and developed Temple into a tourney team - all prior to SC. Other than coming from UVA, Geno had none of that background pre UConn.

VA Huskie- - -Just because Dawn was a great player has no impact on her being a great coach! Some of the greatest players made the worst coaches! I'm not saying that applies to Dawn just that come back in 25 years and look at her record! With all her playing success she's never made 1 FF or ran off 5 years of 30+ wins as a coach, so the jury is still out!

 

[Buzzyboy]

I just want to know what some of you will do if South Carolina wins? It technically won't be an upset since South Carolina is currently ranked as the best team in the country. Will you gorge on ice cream? Not bother with the internet for a week? Eat lots of fried and greasy comfort food? How will you cope should the final score end up 73-67 South Carolina?

I suppose our answers would be comparable to a myriad of South Carolina fans who actually think their team is not only ranked #1 but IS the best team in the country, if UConn beats them by twenty five to thirty points and humiliates them. We've seen South Carolina play a decent amount and I would have t say that I'd be embarrassed if the Huskies put on a performance that allows that team to beat them, particularly on their home court. If that happens, that suggests that this team has played extraordinarily poorly and choked badly, turning the ball over frequently, shooting horrifically and committing reckless fouls. Basically, playing the worst game the Huskies have played in a very, very long time. No one questions the defensive capabilities of South Carolina. They seem to be a very nice defensive team but as mentioned, I don't think I've seen a team ranked number one stink out the joint with as bad an offensive performance as they did against Duke and yet win primarily because in the last 45 seconds, Duke, who also played a stinko game, literally gave the game away to the Gamecocks. Since it's hasn't been one of UConn's traits to play at that level it would be STUNNING for them to do so in this environment and at this time.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Well said Big. But what most forget when comparing the two is that Dawn was in the Final Four multiple times, an All American, an Olympian, and developed Temple into a tourney team - all prior to SC. Other than coming from UVA, Geno had none of that background pre UConn.

What the hell does any of what Dawn Staley accomplished as a player have to do with her being compared on any level to Geno? You almost suggest that she has more qualifications than he has and that's dumb! Geno has coached an Olympic team of professional athletes, a bunch of whom are better ball players than Dawn Staley will ever be and then you talk about her developing Temple into a tourney team and state that Geno has none of that background. Not only did Geno develop a team (UCONN) but he didn't just make the tourney, he was in how many final fours and won how many national championships???? You did qualify yourself by saying "before UConn" and that's silly because how could Geno have a head coaching job before his first head coaching job??? Geno didn't have to leave Storrs to get his big head coaching job, he turned little UConn who had one prior season with a winning record into a monster and he made them his DREAM JOB while Dawn couldn't do it at Temple and instead left for greener pastures. Sounds like a quitter to me! Why didn't she have the ability to make Temple the new center of women's basketball, like Geno had in Storrs????Are you delirious? It's because Dawn Staley can't transfer her experience to her players and somehow prepare them for this upcoming game or for the tournament. She had these same skills and experiences last year and exactly what happened? Couldn't she transfer all her knowledge she built up over her illustrious career and will her team to at least the final four???? Did it work out well for the Gamecocks??? Geno's 1991 team, in his sixth year as a Huskie coach, went to the Final Four against all expectations and nearly was playing in the championship team with a team with nowhere near the talent that last year's South Carolina had and exactly how far did Dawn Staley and her basketball experiences take that number one seeded team????? Underachievement! Yet Geno's 1991 team was exactly the opposite and overachieved, getting where they were despite the fact that he wasn't the Olympian that Dawn was.

 

[Tonyc]

I just want to know what some of you will do if South Carolina wins? It technically won't be an upset since South Carolina is currently ranked as the best team in the country. Will you gorge on ice cream? Not bother with the internet for a week? Eat lots of fried and greasy comfort food? How will you cope should the final score end up 73-67 South Carolina?

Correct SC is number 1 in the polls and I disagree UConn is and has been for a long time the best team in WCBB. So yes imo it would be an upset if SC wins because most people feel that UConn will win by double digits and I feel by 20+. If SC is intimidated or feels the pressure UConn will pounce on them like a lion on a lamb. I am very confident.

 

[ctfjr]

Oh, what a large expenditure of electrons. Let's throw the freakin ball up already and really finish this conversation. Even then I'm afraid the thread will continue (or a complementary one started) that will just change the subject from Gamecocks to crow.

 

[connboy77]

I just want to know what some of you will do if South Carolina wins? It technically won't be an upset since South Carolina is currently ranked as the best team in the country. Will you gorge on ice cream? Not bother with the internet for a week? Eat lots of fried and greasy comfort food? How will you cope should the final score end up 73-67 South Carolina?

It would not be the end of the world for UCONN or there fans. SC still would have to play UCONN again to win their first National Championship.

 

[Zorro]

With the usual significance of sound and fury.

Yup.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

CLE802A & cockhrnleghrn- - - -I can't speak for other BYers, but what gets me riled up in this whole SoCar at UCONN Feb. 9th game situation is THE BONEYARD is a UCONN FAN SITE and you come over here and spout the company line on the SoCar Gamecocks WBB team (I respect your support for YOUR team) but then call us arrogant, cocky, over-confident, etc. and you are shocked we attack you two for your comments! For us, UCONN fans it's not bragging if you've been there and done it! You SoCar fans have NOTHING on your side of the stat sheet except a regular season SEC title! TN won the SEC Tournament title in 2014!

The facts are these: Dawn Staley is potentially a good coach, but has done absolutely nothing to date to be considered in the same conversation as Geno Auriemma! She is a good recruiter that is THE ONLY THING SHE HAS PROVEN! Her excellent playing career means squat as a College Coach!

Geno Auriemma & UCONN has:
9 National Championships
15 FF Appearances - the last 7 in a row
19 30 win seasons
39 Conference Championships / 20 regular season titles / 19 Tournament Crowns
100% graduation rate
12 Olympians
32 1st team All-American selections
18 Conference POY Honors
16 first round WNBA Draft Picks / 4 #1 selections
21 Consecutive 20-win seasons
highest winning % of any coach ALL-TIME
687-52 (.930) Record since 1994-95 BEST IN THE COUNTRY

I coached HS Wrestling for 32 years and learned to NEVER say NEVER, anything IS POSSIBLE, but taking all the facts on the table at this time, and going into this contest SoCar's ass is grass and UCONN is a lawnmower!
You guys don't come into OUR HOUSE and TELL US we're arrogant, etc. Brag and regurgitate the company manifesto on COCKYTALK not here!

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I suppose our answers would be comparable to a myriad of South Carolina fans who actually think their team is not only ranked #1 but IS the best team in the country, if UConn beats them by twenty five to thirty points and humiliates them. We've seen South Carolina play a decent amount and I would have t say that I'd be embarrassed if the Huskies put on a performance that allows that team to beat them, particularly on their home court. If that happens, that suggests that this team has played extraordinarily poorly and choked badly, turning the ball over frequently, shooting horrifically and committing reckless fouls. Basically, playing the worst game the Huskies have played in a very, very long time. No one questions the defensive capabilities of South Carolina. They seem to be a very nice defensive team but as mentioned, I don't think I've seen a team ranked number one stink out the joint with as bad an offensive performance as they did against Duke and yet win primarily because in the last 45 seconds, Duke, who also played a stinko game, literally gave the game away to the Gamecocks. Since it's hasn't been one of UConn's traits to play at that level it would be STUNNING for them to do so in this environment and at this time.

An early season game at Duke is somehow different than your early season game at Stanford. The only difference I see is that the Gamecocks played poor on offense at Duke and the Huskies played poor on defense at Stanford. Explain.

Oops, and the Gamecocks actually won at Duke despite the poor offensive performance.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

CLE802A & cockhrnleghrn- - - -I can't speak for other BYers, but what gets me riled up in this whole SoCar at UCONN Feb. 9th game situation is THE BONEYARD is a UCONN FAN SITE and you come over here and spout the company line on the SoCar Gamecocks WBB team (I respect your support for YOUR team) but then call us arrogant, cocky, over-confident, etc. and you are shocked we attack you two for your comments! For us, UCONN fans it's not bragging if you've been there and done it! You SoCar fans have NOTHING on your side of the stat sheet except a regular season SEC title! TN won the SEC Tournament title in 2014!

The facts are these: Dawn Staley is potentially a good coach, but has done absolutely nothing to date to be considered in the same conversation as Geno Auriemma! She is a good recruiter that is THE ONLY THING SHE HAS PROVEN! Her excellent playing career means squat as a College Coach!

Geno Auriemma & UCONN has:
9 National Championships
15 FF Appearances - the last 7 in a row
19 30 win seasons
39 Conference Championships / 20 regular season titles / 19 Tournament Crowns
100% graduation rate
12 Olympians
32 1st team All-American selections
18 Conference POY Honors
16 first round WNBA Draft Picks / 4 #1 selections
21 Consecutive 20-win seasons
highest winning % of any coach ALL-TIME
687-52 (.930) Record since 1994-95 BEST IN THE COUNTRY

I coached HS Wrestling for 32 years and learned to NEVER say NEVER, anything IS POSSIBLE, but taking all the facts on the table at this time, and going into this contest SoCar's ass is grass and UCONN is a lawnmower!
You guys don't come into OUR HOUSE and TELL US we're arrogant, etc. Brag and regurgitate the company manifesto on COCKYTALK not here!

Please post a link to where I referred to you as arrogant on the BY? In fact, a poster copied *part* of a post of mine from Cockytalk that mentioned the word arrogant, but neglected to quote the entire post. I'm used to dealing with the media, so I know people get misquoted all the time. It matters not.

 

[bertieboy]

I predict that South Carolina will not be intimidated by UCONN/Gampel Arena (they are playing there, right?) like most other opponents have been. How Wilson plays will be the key to the game.

Uconn by 20. I don't think it matters how Wilson plays.

 

[HuskyNan]

So, according to you, taking a team from 10-18 to number one in the country is "doing nothing". How many championships did Geno win in his first 6 years?

I must take exception with this argument. When Geno started at UConn in 1985, UConn was just a small regional school with some fairly average players and a university that clearly ran the women's program only to comply with Title IX (see my 2004 interview with UConn's first scholarship player Chris Gedney for a history). They played in a dark, dingy field house and Geno basically got a closet for an office (that he shared with Chris Dailey) and a minimal recruiting budget. He was a complete unknown. And yet, Geno had one losing season in his career, going 12-15 in his first year as head coach. He didn't land a big recruit until 1987 and then he's never looked back. Even the first three big recruits to arrive at UConn were New England kids (Kerry Bascom from New Hampshire, Rebecca Lobo from Massachusetts and Nykesha Sales from Connecticut). Yet, Geno won the Big East and went to the NCAA tournament in his 4th year and he has made at least the conference title game every year since and we know of his record in the NCAA tournament. In his 6th year, Geno went to his first Final Four with a team comprised of players no one had heard of outside the Northeast.

Meanwhile, Dawn inherited a team in a major conference, at a college that clearly cares enough for its women's programs to hire a well-known name and give her financial and institutional support. She had a roster with Demetress Adams (offers from Notre Dame, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia, Michigan State and Rutgers) and Charenee Stevens (who was recruited by UConn) and a bunch of Division I players from across the country in her first year. So please, don't compare where Geno started and where Dawn started.

 

[Zorro]

Excellent point, Nan. Of course, on the other hand, many other coaches have inherited situations similar to or even better than Dawn's, and failed to achieve what Dawn has achieved, so she does deserve a lot of respect and credit for her accomplishments. The UScar athletic department and higher ups also deserve a bunch of approval for having made it possible for Dawn to have achieved success. Comparisons of Geno's early coaching career to Dawn's are, as you rightly point out, of no value whatever, but it seems to me that what bids fair to be a continuing rivalry with another coach and program that is worthy of our mettle is very welcome. To say that we all hope and reasonably expect to thrash them soundly come Monday week is by no means to disrespect them. To my knowledge, neither Dawn nor any of her players has done or said anything remotely disrespectful about UConn or Geno. Their fans' doing a little crowing on our board is very much like Kara's "victory lap" around the gym at Gample; simply an exhibition of exuberant competitive spirit. If our situation s were reversed, many of us would be doing the same. I would like to see the Huskies play them again for the NC. (I do wish they would do something about that name, though; Fighting Gamecocks for a women's team is something that you can't think too much about without giggling.)