UConn vs So. Carolina prediction thread

[Aluminny69]

Do you not find predictions of 30 point victories to be arrogant?

Rest assured, these are the same posters who predicted an easy 30 point victory over Stanford.

 

[Sonny44]

We're desperate for competition.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

What of Dawn is hired to replace Geno when he retires? Could happen.

No disrespect intended, but I don't think you'd be able to outbid USC's Athletics Department.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

With what the SoCar fans are saying comparing the dregs of the AAC to the 'riches of the SEC". When was the last time the SEC won a National Title? Let alone make a Final Four Championship game! And TX am was a member of the Big 12 when they won in 2011!

In WBB - 2008 with a current SEC team in 2011. There are other sports besides WBB and the SEC has won many national championships in major sports in recent years.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

How deep into the bench do you think Dawn will go. Obviously Coates and Wilson. But do you think she will go much farther. I believe Geno goes with Stokes, Williams and maybe Chong but no more. Should be a great game. And overlooking the next three games is because the level of competition is considerably lower than UCONN's. Geno will use them to work on perfecting certain aspects of their game.

Roy and Cuevas will also play and White and Gaines may play a few minutes.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I tend to agree with you about the potential "big stage" effect on SC, as well as on the likely outcome of the game. With respect to the Stanford game, I know what you are saying, and yes, the current UConn team is now a very different unit from the one that lost at Palo Alto, but, much as we hate it, credit must go out to Stanford. They certainly did win the game...and made the Huskies a much better team as a result. But where I must disagree with you is relative to your rather negative outlook on Dawn. Is she, not unlike GA himself, self-assured, cocky (no pun intended), and a bit arrogant? Sure, and why not...look what she has put together in a relatively short space of time. I, like some others, tend to complain about lack of parity in WCBB. Some on this board correctly respond to those complaints by saying, in essence, "Look, that's not UConn's fault. It's the responsibility of other programs to step it up!" I agree. So here comes Dawn, who's done just that. We all ought to applaud her for it, and even give a nod of appreciation to the kind of contentious personality traits that helped her put it all together. Not to be repetitive, but we UConn fans have read that book before. I know that many here do not share my feelings, but I would much rather see many more intense rivalries develop with more agonizing nail-biters to watch that to sit through many more of the yawners we've been witnessing lately. It's hard to watch so many games being televised these days that show 3/4 empty arenas. Good competition is the only remedy for that, the game needs it, and we all ought to be in favor of it. Thanks, Dawn, for doing your part!

Bigpetunia- - - My problem with Dawn Staley is she WAS a WBB Hall of Fame caliber player without any doubts, but as a Head Coach she has achieved NOTHING of any true value to date! And for her to make statements saying she's more advanced than Pat Summitt and Geno Auriemma BECAUSE she was an elite player is arrogant! One has nothing to do with the other! Geno IS cocky and arrogant and also has coached many of the greatest players in WBB history, won 9 NCAA titles, 20+ Big East regular season and Big East Tournaments, the highest winning % of ANY WCBB coach in history, and he is consided one of the greatest coaches of any sport in modern history! Pat Summitt has 8 NCAA titles, over 1,000 wins, many SEC Regular Season and SEC Tournaments, and is rightfully considered the belle of WBB coaches that drove WBB in to the modern era and gave it legitimacy!
Dawn has to win several SEC Regular Season and Tournament titles, several NCAA titles, and have a proven track record over many, many, many years to be spoken of in the same category as Pat Head Summitt of TN and Geno Auriemma of UCONN or Tara Vandeveer of Stanford or many other coaches for that matter that have BEEN THERE AND DONE THAT!
Don't TELL the world you're a great coach Dawn, SHOW the world you're a great coach with 20+ years of outstanding results!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

In WBB - 2008 with a current SEC team in 2011. There are other sports besides WBB and the SEC has won many national championships in major sports in recent years.

cockrnleghrn- - - Winning in 2008 was 7 years ago! And don't drag in OTHER NCAA sports to pad your argument when we're talking WCBB here not freaking badminton or track & field or football!
TXam as I stated above was a member of the Big 12 Conference when it won it's NCAA title in 2011, so it has NOTHING AT ALL to do with SEC successes!
It's like the Red Sox Nation thinking they are the equals of the New York Yankees when if the Sox win the next 18 straight World Series they will only TIE the Yankees with 27 World Championships!
Dawn Staley and SoCar has done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to date to be spoken of on the same level or a better WCBB program than UCONN! If SoCar wins the next 9 NCAA titles they only can TIE UCONN with 9!
Cocky, Even if UCONN's whole team gets lost going to Gampel on Feb. 9th and doesn't make it to the game at all, UCONN will STILL WIN the game by 2 points! And if that statement makes me an arrogant UCONN fan then so be it! I wear that laurel of national flag blue and white proudly!
Comparing SoCar to UCONN at this present time is like comparing Mr. Ed to Secretariat!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

UConn is "almost unbeatable?" Is that like being "almost pregnant?" UConn has a loss already, so by definition they are beatable. And this game is not the first time South Carolina has been on the big stage. They've already played games at Kentucky and Duke which I've heard are pretty big basketball schools and big stages themselves. South Carolina has also proven they have the mental toughness to pull out close games that come down to the wire.

HoopsFan21- - - When has SoCar played a #1 vs #2 game on National TV that THE WHOLE NATION will be watching?
Playing Duke and KY is NO COMPARISON to a 1vs2 ballgame vs UCONN at Gampel!
Nothing SoCar has EVER done to date compares to Feb. 9th as far as level of competition and if you truly believe they are equal contests, and playing Duke at Chapel Hill is the same as Feb. 9th at Storrs you have no understanding of sports! Just like if you make the Elite 8 and play to go to the FINAL 4 or win the FF semi's and play for the National Championship NOTHING ELSE COMPARES TO THE PRESSURE at that time!

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Um...USC has played UT in their arena since 1992. The Lady Vols were only 3-time NCs back then. This shouldn't be anything new for them. If anything, I could see them get tight over the ramifications of what a victory could mean for them - that experience would be new - but I doubt highly that the venue experience will off-set them much at all...

CLE802A- - -SoCar playing TN since 1992 in ANY arena has NO point of reference to #1 SoCar vs #2 UCONN at Gampel in Storrs on Feb. 9th on ESPN2 with the whole world watching, woman to woman, "shut up and bring your bad game my way!" type of atmosphere!

 

[Tonyc]

I keep reading that SC has a deep bench. So what you can only play 5 players at a time. If your referring to UConn getting tired theyre in great shape that has never been a problem. If you referring to getting in foul trouble that doesn't happen very often. I suggest you put the shoe on the other foot and think about what if SC gets tired or gets in foul trouble how will they react. SC is not a high scoring team. UConn is. UConn has 5 great scorers/shooters how do you play them one on one?

 

[Buster]

Comparing SoCar to UCONN at this present time is like comparing Mr. Ed to Secretariat!

Yup, one talks the talk, the other walks the walk!

 

[EricLA]

I keep reading that SC has a deep bench. So what you can only play 5 players at a time. If your referring to UConn getting tired theyre in great shape that has never been a problem. If you referring to getting in foul trouble that doesn't happen very often. I suggest you put the shoe on the other foot and think about what if SC gets tired or gets in foul trouble how will they react. SC is not a high scoring team. UConn is. UConn has 5 great scorers/shooters how do you play them one on one?

In fairness, SC is averaging 78 PPG this season holding opponents to an average of 50. UCONN is averaging 90 PPG while holding opponents to 49.

The problem is if you look at the "better" teams each has played, and how many points have been scored by each...

Stanford 86 in OT
ND 76
Dep 98
UCLA 86
Duke 83

Compare that to SC:

Syracuse 67
Duke 52
Kentucky 68
aTm 79

SC's highest scoring game against "good" competition was Texas AM while UCONN's lowest was ND. And yet I'd wager ND is substantially better than aTm and would whallop them. My point is against really good teams, UCONN is scoring at a much higher clip that SC. It's why I think folks are slightly crazy when they say SC will score over 70 vs. UCONN, never mind over 60. I think my prediction was about a 23-25 point win somewhere in the neighborhood of 73-50.

This isn't one of those games like ECU where UCONN has ALL the subs in plus 1 starter at the 11 minute mark in the 2nd half and puts in the last 2 with 5 minutes left. That's one reason why teams like Temple and Tulsa scored close to 60 points against UCONN. In the game vs. SC, I think it's extremely unlikely that Courtney, Tierney or Polly see the court. I think Saniya will struggle with the speed of SC's guards (SJU had quick guards and she only played 6 minutes).

I could see UCONN going only 6 deep with Stokes and possibly bringing in Gabby for 5-7 minutes as well. I think Saniya will get in but if she isn't instantly contributing in a good way, she will be lucky to see 4 minutes...

 

[CTyankee]

I think SC will be lucky if they score 65... And UConn ought to score at least 75, probably more as in over 80. So... UConn 82 SC 62

 

[Joobie]

Yes, this team has 1 loss. By 2 points. Lots has changed since the Stanford game. This team is clicking BIG TIME on both ends of the floor. They have amazing chemistry & will be totally psyched for this game. SO:

UCONN 82
SC 60

I did NOT read CTYankee's post before writing this. HONEST!

 

[HoopsFan21]

HoopsFan21- - - When has SoCar played a #1 vs #2 game on National TV that THE WHOLE NATION will be watching?
Playing Duke and KY is NO COMPARISON to a 1vs2 ballgame vs UCONN at Gampel!
Nothing SoCar has EVER done to date compares to Feb. 9th as far as level of competition and if you truly believe they are equal contests, and playing Duke at Chapel Hill is the same as Feb. 9th at Storrs you have no understanding of sports! Just like if you make the Elite 8 and play to go to the FINAL 4 or win the FF semi's and play for the National Championship NOTHING ELSE COMPARES TO THE PRESSURE at that time!

Get a grip. It's women's basketball. The whole nation will not be watching. They most likely will be watching shows like Celebrity Apprentice or the Bachelor or American Idol or whatever passes for popular network TV these days.

 

[Buzzyboy]

The SC Board, for those who have an interest, is...

http://www.cockytalk.com/index.php

Women's basketball is found under their "Foul Shots" forum. You can check out their comments about UConn and the upcoming game...

There was a couple of reasonable and expected responses but one in particular that was thoughtful was the guy that talked about maintaining excellence rather than just maybe getting there once is the secret. There are many programs that have had a year or a couple of years of extraordinary play but when you continue to do it year after year after year, that says everything. I don't think SC will fall too badly but I'm inclined to think they'll likely be a top ten program that never quite seems to get to the mountain top.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Get a grip. It's women's basketball. The whole nation will not be watching. They most likely will be watching shows like Celebrity Apprentice or the Bachelor or American Idol or whatever passes for popular network TV these days.

The whole nation of women's basketball fans will probably be watching. Those who have no interest in women's basketball obviously will not but I'm inclined to think Lady Vols fans will be watching, Notre Dame fans will be watching, Duke fans will be watching, unless their teams are playing simultaneously. I don't think the comment was meant in a literal sense but a figurative one.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

cockrnleghrn- - - Winning in 2008 was 7 years ago! And don't drag in OTHER NCAA sports to pad your argument when we're talking WCBB here not freaking badminton or track & field or football!
TXam as I stated above was a member of the Big 12 Conference when it won it's NCAA title in 2011, so it has NOTHING AT ALL to do with SEC successes!
It's like the Red Sox Nation thinking they are the equals of the New York Yankees when if the Sox win the next 18 straight World Series they will only TIE the Yankees with 27 World Championships!
Dawn Staley and SoCar has done ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to date to be spoken of on the same level or a better WCBB program than UCONN! If SoCar wins the next 9 NCAA titles they only can TIE UCONN with 9!
Cocky, Even if UCONN's whole team gets lost going to Gampel on Feb. 9th and doesn't make it to the game at all, UCONN will STILL WIN the game by 2 points! And if that statement makes me an arrogant UCONN fan then so be it! I wear that laurel of national flag blue and white proudly!
Comparing SoCar to UCONN at this present time is like comparing Mr. Ed to Secretariat!

So, according to you, taking a team from 10-18 to number one in the country is "doing nothing". How many championships did Geno win in his first 6 years?

 

[Buzzyboy]

UConn is "almost unbeatable?" Is that like being "almost pregnant?" UConn has a loss already, so by definition they are beatable. And this game is not the first time South Carolina has been on the big stage. They've already played games at Kentucky and Duke which I've heard are pretty big basketball schools and big stages themselves. South Carolina has also proven they have the mental toughness to pull out close games that come down to the wire.

They'll be playing the 9 time National champion and the two time defending champion while defending their No. 1 ranking at Storrs on national TV with most people anticipating a UConn win and there won't be any jitters???? I'm not inclined to believe that. We aren't Duke and it's not like SC has had an awful lot of exposure to this scenario. Have they? They may play out of their minds and fool us all but I'm inclined to think there is far more likelihood that the scope of the game will more likely have them quite anxious. It's also amazing that people have Dawn Staley as the second coming. She's obviously a good coach and a good recruiter but her teams have been good teams, not great teams as of yet and this team totally underachieved last year in the tournament despite being a number one seed. Did they choke then??? They may be facing the same type self induced pressure to perform that resulted in that loss. Time will tell.

 

[Buzzyboy]

So, according to you, taking a team from 10-18 to number one in the country is "doing nothing". How many championships did Geno win in his first 6 years?

I think you know what he meant with "doing nothing". He doesn't mean that SC is garbage or that Dawn Staley is nothing. She's obviously a really good coach and recruiter and this team is obviously a very good team. Your response almost would seem to suggest that this team was 10-18 last year, which it wasn't. It's taken time to move this team to where they are but to get to where they are is one thing, to get to the mountain top is a totally different thing. Maybe SC will be the new Duke that is always very good but doesn't ever seem to get there and lately hasn't even made it to the Final Four. SC hasn't done what Baylor and Notre Dame and Tennessee have done and that's get to the big dance so until you do, I think it's better to be a little humble. SC hasn't lost and who knows, it's still possible they won't but I'd sure be surprised because I have seen things like that pitiful performance against Duke that was totally embarrassing and without that meltdown by Duke in the waning seconds, this game wouldnt' have anywhere near the attention it's going to have. It's obvious who would be the No. 1 team in the country, if South Carolina had lost that game. I know that UConn's lost a game but even though their performance wasn't great against Stanford, Stanford played their best game of the season and it was only the second game of the year and UConn hadn't figured out how to compensate for losing Dolson and Hartley, two senior starters on the defensive end. I thought both Duke and SC played pitifully, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Duke is anything but one of the most stellar defensive teams around and what did the Gamecocks do??? South Carolina is in a position to finally "do something" and they just may but I'm not expecting it, just yet!!!!

 

[Buzzyboy]

One solid example may be the Duke game: at their place, a top-10 opponent that USC doesn't play very often. USC played 10 players.

USC has it's system, and UConn has it's. Coach Staley prefers to give her reserves of mostly younger, inexperienced players (only one senior among them) as much experience as possible and learn how to become contributors in tight game situations, while Auriemma prefers to rely more on his veteran starters to dictate the game outcomes - even against lesser opponents who are greatly out-matched before the 1st halves are decided - rather than let his reserves use the moot periods late in games to hone their craft.

UConn does play all their available players (Ekmark missed some games early to injury, while USC's White has missed half the season to injury, and Duckett half the season to "Coach'es Decisions"), and they have started pulling the starters earlier in recent blow-out AAC gms and let the reserves play more. But if you look at the average minutes played for each team, you'd see a noticeable disparity there as well.

The following are the breakdown for conference games for each USC and UConn regarding the average of contributions of bench points (BP) scored in each game:


USC:
AU: 12 players, 39 BP
LSU: 13 players, 47 BP
UA: 13 players, 55 BP
UK: 11 players, 15 BP
MO: 11 players, 23 BP
UF: 14 players, 47 BP
TAMU: 12 players, 41 BP

USC has averaged 12.3 players seeing game time in SEC gms, and it's bench has averaged 38.1 ppg during that stretch. USC is beating it's SEC opponents by an average of 22.6 points per game.


CT:
SMU: 10 players, 22 BP
ECU: 11 players, 15 BP
Tulsa: 11 players, 23 BP
SMU: 11 players, 33 BP
Temple: 11 players, 18 BP
USF: 11 players, 19 BP
UCF: 11 players, 31 BP
Cinn: 11 players, 30 BP
ECU: 11 players, 28 BP


UConn has averaged 10.9 players seeing game time in AAC gms, and it's bench has averaged 24.3 ppg during that stretch. UConn is beating it's AAC opponents by an average of exactly 50 points per game.

So USC is beating it's conference foes by less than half of what UConn is beating it's AAC rivals, but USC's bench is contributing so much more to their cause than what UConn's bench contributes?

What can one conclude here? I doubt that even the most biased UConn fans here would argue much that the AAC (minus UConn) is on the same competitive level of the SEC. The games are more physical, with more fouls called, in the senior league compared to the younger. USC plays it's bench more and gets more contributions from it's reserves. As a result veteran starters like Welch and Ibiam are recording career lows in ppg and rpg, despite averaging 59.0 and 58.8 FG %s, the top 2 on the team. Is it because they struggle to score? No. They just don't stay on the floor as much these days, and they don't take as large a % of the team's total shots as they used to. There's much more depth and fewer shot attempts to go around.

With all the minutes the Gamecock reserves play, do you think the team overall is tired? That they will get tired in the game versus UConn? Nope. But could this be a reason why UConn's offense seems so explosive, while USC's doesn't appear to be so? Could be. The question is this: USC isn't chopped liver as a defensive team in it's own right, and USC has great depth in the paint where 4 of the 5 (including F Welch) are very experienced now and major contributors. USC's bench has played a ton. How long will UConn's starting 5 hold out before y'all have to go to the bench? Against Notre Dame they gave y'all 12 points. Versus Duke they added 13. They scored 2 vs St. Johns...

Well, Geno's formula really came back and bit him last year when with a smaller bench, they ended up going undefeated and won the national championship. One of the things that seems to skew your results a little bit is that I seem to remember that A'ja Wilson was coming off the bench and her numbers surely enhance the bench results even though she's anything but a bench type player. Dawn has chosen to bring her off the bench but she's getting starting minutes because in effect, she is a starter. The primary bench player that Geno has is Kiah who comes off the bench but she isn't a scorer so the numbers of points off the bench for UConn aren't enhanced as SC's would be. The truth is maybe there's not a lot of distinction between their bench and their starters. Theoretically maybe a team can have ten comparable (but mediocre) players with no one better than the next so there is no advantage but no liability either. I don't ever remember Geno's team losing a game because the starters were gassed, so unless that's suddenly an issue, it appears to be irrelevant.

 

[CTyankee]

Yes, this team has 1 loss. By 2 points. Lots has changed since the Stanford game. This team is clicking BIG TIME on both ends of the floor. They have amazing chemistry & will be totally psyched for this game. SO:

UCONN 82
SC 60

I did NOT read CTYankee's post before writing this. HONEST!

Right!!!

 

[geneticrex]

So, according to you, taking a team from 10-18 to number one in the country is "doing nothing". How many championships did Geno win in his first 6 years?

Dawn is doing a fine job of building a program at SC, but in no way can one compare the "early" years between her and Geno.

Geno, an unknown coach, took over a national doormat, from an afterthought conference, in a town that doesn't appear on most maps, playing in an out house with a leaky roof. In basically one recruiting cycle, he built a Final Four team and since then, they've stood atop the basketball world for 2 straight decades, poised to win a 10th title in 20 years, despite absorbing numerous career and/or season ending injuries to 1st team AAs.

Unprecedented and likely to be unduplicated.

 

[HoopsFan21]

One solid example may be the Duke game: at their place, a top-10 opponent that USC doesn't play very often. USC played 10 players.

USC has it's system, and UConn has it's. Coach Staley prefers to give her reserves of mostly younger, inexperienced players (only one senior among them) as much experience as possible and learn how to become contributors in tight game situations, while Auriemma prefers to rely more on his veteran starters to dictate the game outcomes - even against lesser opponents who are greatly out-matched before the 1st halves are decided - rather than let his reserves use the moot periods late in games to hone their craft.

UConn does play all their available players (Ekmark missed some games early to injury, while USC's White has missed half the season to injury, and Duckett half the season to "Coach'es Decisions"), and they have started pulling the starters earlier in recent blow-out AAC gms and let the reserves play more. But if you look at the average minutes played for each team, you'd see a noticeable disparity there as well.

The following are the breakdown for conference games for each USC and UConn regarding the average of contributions of bench points (BP) scored in each game:


USC:
AU: 12 players, 39 BP
LSU: 13 players, 47 BP
UA: 13 players, 55 BP
UK: 11 players, 15 BP
MO: 11 players, 23 BP
UF: 14 players, 47 BP
TAMU: 12 players, 41 BP

USC has averaged 12.3 players seeing game time in SEC gms, and it's bench has averaged 38.1 ppg during that stretch. USC is beating it's SEC opponents by an average of 22.6 points per game.


CT:
SMU: 10 players, 22 BP
ECU: 11 players, 15 BP
Tulsa: 11 players, 23 BP
SMU: 11 players, 33 BP
Temple: 11 players, 18 BP
USF: 11 players, 19 BP
UCF: 11 players, 31 BP
Cinn: 11 players, 30 BP
ECU: 11 players, 28 BP


UConn has averaged 10.9 players seeing game time in AAC gms, and it's bench has averaged 24.3 ppg during that stretch. UConn is beating it's AAC opponents by an average of exactly 50 points per game.

So USC is beating it's conference foes by less than half of what UConn is beating it's AAC rivals, but USC's bench is contributing so much more to their cause than what UConn's bench contributes?

What can one conclude here? I doubt that even the most biased UConn fans here would argue much that the AAC (minus UConn) is on the same competitive level of the SEC. The games are more physical, with more fouls called, in the senior league compared to the younger. USC plays it's bench more and gets more contributions from it's reserves. As a result veteran starters like Welch and Ibiam are recording career lows in ppg and rpg, despite averaging 59.0 and 58.8 FG %s, the top 2 on the team. Is it because they struggle to score? No. They just don't stay on the floor as much these days, and they don't take as large a % of the team's total shots as they used to. There's much more depth and fewer shot attempts to go around.

With all the minutes the Gamecock reserves play, do you think the team overall is tired? That they will get tired in the game versus UConn? Nope. But could this be a reason why UConn's offense seems so explosive, while USC's doesn't appear to be so? Could be. The question is this: USC isn't chopped liver as a defensive team in it's own right, and USC has great depth in the paint where 4 of the 5 (including F Welch) are very experienced now and major contributors. USC's bench has played a ton. How long will UConn's starting 5 hold out before y'all have to go to the bench? Against Notre Dame they gave y'all 12 points. Versus Duke they added 13. They scored 2 vs St. Johns...

UConn doesn't need to go to its bench. They are conditioned to play 40 minutes. Muffet kept waiting for UConn to go to the bench last year, and by the time they did, ND was down 20 and #9 was in the bag. Muffet said that UConn not having to sub out was the difference last year. On UConn's conditioning, there is no other team on their level.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Dawn is doing a fine job of building a program at SC, but in no way can one compare the "early" years between her and Geno.

Geno, an unknown coach, took over a national doormat, from an afterthought conference, in a town that doesn't appear on most maps, playing in an out house with a leaky roof. In basically one recruiting cycle, he built a Final Four team and since then, they've stood atop the basketball world for 2 straight decades, poised to win a 10th title in 20 years, despite absorbing numerous career and/or season ending injuries to 1st team AAs.

Unprecedented and likely to be unduplicated.

People don't realize how little was at UConn when Geno arrived. He even said in last night's show that UConn becoming a nationally known school and brand is a relatively new thing, as in the last couple of decades. Geno built something from nothing. Staley will certainly never be able to say that, because as was said, she benefits "from the riches of the SEC." I bet Staley has more than one rotary phone from which to do her recruiting.