Hurley has done a good job of having the guys ready to handle interior competition. We have to avoid bad losses, none of our current losses would be considered 'bad'. Here's to hoping we can avoid the wtf loss.
If we handle our business against teams not named Cincinnati/Houston with some quality conference road wins and make the conference tourney final, we'd sneak into the tourney.
The bubble has gotten weaker and weaker since the tourney field expanded. Even with the P5 bias, we'd get in with 20+ wins if we have no bad losses.
I could see us ending up with a 12 seed, pulling off the annual 12-5 upset against a top 20 team, and maybe making it to the second weekend.