ESPN BPI has UConn finishing 18-13 going 9-9 in conference, which seems very conservative and likely the result of poor play v. Villanova pulling down the ranking.
If they want any shot at a at-large they need the following:
@ USF - Win
v. UCF - Win
v. SMU - Win
@ Cincy - Loss
@ Tulsa - Win
v. Tulane - Win
v. Wichita St. - Win
@ UCF - Loss
v. ECU - Win
@ Temple - Loss
@ Memphis - Win
v. Houston - Win
@ SMU - Loss
v. Cincy - Win
@ Wichita St. - Win
v. USF - Win
v. Temple - Win
@ ECU - Win
14-4 record
The difference between at-large and NIT is going to come down to the bolded games i.e. protecting home court against Cincy/Houston/UCF/Temple. Outside those games, I'm assuming they lose again all 4 on the road plus an SMU loss. Memphis/Wichita St. could prove to be tough as well, but those are the big 4 that will ultimately determine their fate in March. Worst case scenario 3-1 in these games and pick up a win elsewhere on the road. It's a tight window to say the least.