UConn Path to the Big Dance?

[QDOG5]

I'm wondering if anyone still sees a path to the tourney after the Nova loss. Outside of winning the conference tourney can anyone describe another path. I can't and I'm still in a funk after the second half of the Nova game. I predicted 20 wins and an NIT bid in the preseason so I shouldn't be too bummed but after the first half of the last game(which I thought we had outplayed them) I got my hopes up too high.

 

[UconnU]

12 wins + in conference and make the conference championship.

 

[Robertelamin]

If they were to sweep Cincy and beat Houston, not lose to the bottom dwellers and make a decent run in the AAC tournament I think they would be in. They are running out of time though.

 

[baako1]

As has been the recent trend, hope for a soft bubble in March... avoid any bad losses in conference play... make it to the finals of AAC tournament. I think we have a better shot than most anticipate.

 

[CL82]

I'm wondering if anyone still sees a path to the tourney

Sure I can see a few:
1) Go undefeated the rest of the regular season.
2) Win the ACC Tournament; or if don't do either of those
3) Via Ticketron, like everyone else.

Right now #3 looks to be the most likely path.

 

[Rico444]

Continuing to get stronger and play your best basketball in the AAC tournament is far and away our best shot.

 

[HawkHusky]

Sure I can see a few:
1) Go undefeated the rest of the regular season.
2) Win the ACC Tournament; or if don't do either of those
3) Via Ticketron, like everyone else.

Right now #3 looks to be the most likely path.

Gonna be difficult to win the ACC tourney...

 

[UconnU]

As has been the recent trend, hope for a soft bubble in March... avoid any bad losses in conference play... make it to the finals of AAC tournament. I think we have a better shot than most anticipate.

Every year they talk about a “soft bubble” the reality is with 68 teams getting in now, the bubble will always be “soft”.

 

[Storrs South]

ESPN BPI has UConn finishing 18-13 going 9-9 in conference, which seems very conservative and likely the result of poor play v. Villanova pulling down the ranking.

If they want any shot at a at-large they need the following:

@ USF - Win
v. UCF - Win
v. SMU - Win
@ Cincy - Loss
@ Tulsa - Win
v. Tulane - Win
v. Wichita St. - Win
@ UCF - Loss
v. ECU - Win
@ Temple - Loss
@ Memphis - Win
v. Houston - Win
@ SMU - Loss
v. Cincy - Win
@ Wichita St. - Win
v. USF - Win
v. Temple - Win
@ ECU - Win

14-4 record

The difference between at-large and NIT is going to come down to the bolded games i.e. protecting home court against Cincy/Houston/UCF/Temple. Outside those games, I'm assuming they lose again all 4 on the road plus an SMU loss. Memphis/Wichita St. could prove to be tough as well, but those are the big 4 that will ultimately determine their fate in March. Worst case scenario 3-1 in these games and pick up a win elsewhere on the road. It's a tight window to say the least.

 

[Marbles90]

There are always scenarios but a better question is how likely? It’s like when a team is not “mathematically eliminated”. Yeah, they could get there but I think we all know it’s not gonna happen based on what we have seen during the first half of the year. I see them pulling off one maybe two big wins against the top conference teams and will most like drop a few to the lesser and/or equal teams. Even winning the conference tournament is a long shot unless they happen to get a good draw and one of the top teams gets upset early. I think NIT would be a reasonable stretch this year.

 

[mauconnfan]

After the Cuse game I admit I thought they had 14-4 in them, which is what they need. I seriously doubt they can win more than 11 and I’d be impressed with that after watching them against better teams.

 

[BFieldHusky]

After the Cuse game I admit I thought they had 14-4 in them, which is what they need. I seriously doubt they can win more than 11 and I’d be impressed with that after watching them against better teams.

I don't disagree that 14-4 is probably too much for them right now, but Iowa, Florida State and even Villanova are better than everyone else in our league, including Houston and Cincinnati. I think we win more than 11. I see 12-6, and a bubble team come the conference tournament.

 

[Huskybass]

Gonna be difficult to win the ACC tourney...

Impossible actually.

14-4 in conference would be tasty. I would sign up for that right now.

 

[BUConn10]

Little soon for this thread tbh.

 

[dannyHAM]

ESPN BPI has UConn finishing 18-13 going 9-9 in conference, which seems very conservative and likely the result of poor play v. Villanova pulling down the ranking.

If they want any shot at a at-large they need the following:

@ USF - Win
v. UCF - Win
v. SMU - Win
@ Cincy - Loss
@ Tulsa - Win
v. Tulane - Win
v. Wichita St. - Win
@ UCF - Loss
v. ECU - Win
@ Temple - Loss
@ Memphis - Win
v. Houston - Win
@ SMU - Loss
v. Cincy - Win
@ Wichita St. - Win
v. USF - Win
v. Temple - Win
@ ECU - Win

14-4 record

The difference between at-large and NIT is going to come down to the bolded games i.e. protecting home court against Cincy/Houston/UCF/Temple. Outside those games, I'm assuming they lose again all 4 on the road plus an SMU loss. Memphis/Wichita St. could prove to be tough as well, but those are the big 4 that will ultimately determine their fate in March. Worst case scenario 3-1 in these games and pick up a win elsewhere on the road. It's a tight window to say the least.

Literally agree with you on everything except I think we lose @Memphis. I dont think 13-5 gets us in unless we also then make a great AAC tourney run.

 

[gtcam]

I see UConn going 13-5 in conference and a 3 or 4 seed in the conference tournament, at best
Not sure that will be enough

 

[AntG168]

Any more than 6 losses in this conference is unacceptable. We’ve played the toughest comp we’ll play all year already. It’s down hill competition wise from here. I think 14-4 should be the goal. That’s mine at least. I’ll shoot high

 

[JB75]

I’ll be honest, when I first looked at our out of conference schedule going into the year against the big boys I would’ve been happy with one win - now looking back on it - Villanova obviously is not top 10 caliber right now -Arizona is having an off year -and Cuse is not as good as we thought- so to all those that say uconn fans would’ve been happy with a one and four record out of conference , that rings hollow - looking back on it we should’ve at the very least won two of those five games. Nova and zona were the killers.

 

[jibsey]

We have 6 weeks of solid evidence. I think we are going to be tantalized with some good performances from time to time but our star player has major flaws and doesn’t have consistency in him, but all the blame is not on him. As we lose to some better and even middling teams in the AAC the bubble will disappear. Our coach is fine but we need better players. Hate to be Scrooge on Xmas eve but guess I am. Very little path and I really want to be wrong.

 

[UConnStats]

I would be absolutely shocked if anything but a conference tournament championship got this team in.

 

[Slasher]

It's all about beating teams that are going to make the NCAA tournament. Need to snag a few of those and have a respectable NET ranking. Unfortunately, it seems like the only surefire teams are Houston and Cincy. So probably need to win at least twice against that group, and then avoid disastrous losses such as ECU, Tulane.

 

[ucp990411]

Sure I can see a few:
1) Go undefeated the rest of the regular season.
2) Win the ACC Tournament; or if don't do either of those
3) Via Ticketron, like everyone else.

Right now #3 looks to be the most likely path.

Probably pretty darn clise

 

[CTBasketball]

One thing you need to give Hurley credit for is taking care of inferior teams. We no longer play to the level of our competition, we play our brand of basketball (mostly).

I think this alone will get us to 10+ conference wins. Getting anything above 12 requires us to get significantly better to beat Cincy, Houston, and the likes. Need to win at home from here on out.

 

[Jaker]

Win the conference tourney or bust

 

[xclamations]

12-6 is the ceiling at best to me. Which would be better than any record in league play to date. And maybe 2 conf tourney wins. Not sure if that's enough but. Hopefully no more blowouts this season