UCLA UConn

[CajunHusky]

The fact is, of the 4 teams remaining in Albany, we looked like the 3rd best team in our last game. Only Oregon State was shakier, and they're going to get killed by Louisville anyway. Frankly, both teams in the UCLA-Maryland game looked better than us.

This being a de facto home game for us and UCLA having their second week on the road helps. But they are a hungry, aggressive team, and we still, for the 3rd year in a row now, have a tendency to play tight in pressure situations.

First, this is not the team of the Stewie era. That class, those teams come along once in a generation. To grade this team or any team in comparison to those teams is just not realistic. This is a very very good team. They are height challenged but compensate very well for it. My one concern is that over the second half of the season they have been streaky with their shots/shot selection. Whether that is the other teams defense or just bad luck is a matter of conjecture.

Second, I watched the UCLA Maryland game and I was not impressed with either team. UCLA put up 80 shots in that game and 20 or more ft's to boot. Neither team were very well disciplined. And they could not sink a bucket 2 feet away. And they both - especially UCLA - like to run! And a team that runs plays to UConn's strength.

Having said that UConn and UCLA have played relatively close the last two games so it should be fun. I just hope UConn shoots 50% or more from the field and they will be okay.

 

[Carnac]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

Excellent analysis of the game. Thanks. Everyone in the yard needs to read this post. It certainly answered some questions I had about this match up.

 

[buddy]

If UConn plays well, they will win. Don't play well, lose. Simple as that.

 

[hoopsfan22]

The fact is, of the 4 teams remaining in Albany, we looked like the 3rd best team in our last game. Only Oregon State was shakier, and they're going to get killed by Louisville anyway. Frankly, both teams in the UCLA-Maryland game looked better than us.

This being a de facto home game for us and UCLA having their second week on the road helps. But they are a hungry, aggressive team, and we still, for the 3rd year in a row now, have a tendency to play tight in pressure situations.

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

The disturbing thing is, we've seen the same tendencies for 3 years now. There's no "alpha dog" mentality among this group of players, nobody saying "I got this" and putting the team on their back.

Geno's team-oriented system works beautifully and attracts ego-free players, but there's a downside to that as well -- too much "nice" and too much "practice until you can't do it wrong" leaves you with robotic play and a lack of ability and willingness to improvise, take it to the opponent, and make the big play.

 

[Tonyc]

From what Im reading UCLA is not a good shooting team from deep. They rebound well and they run well. So slow down the game, make them shoot from the outside, and pack it in. That settles the rebounding, the poor shooting, and running the score up. If you look at my post above which shows UCLAs end of season losses ,it appears that teams that slow it down and keep the score down against UCLA win.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Excellent analysis of the game. Thanks. This post answers all the questions or concerns anyone may have about this match up.

Thanks @Huskee11 , I agree with @Scoop . Hard to compare the games from this past weekend when UCONN did not play their normal game vs Buffalo and UCLA played a great game vs MD. I was a "casual observer" of UCONN WBB for a handful of years, and became more active (as in don't miss a game) in the last 4 years. One thing I have noticed is UCONN does not "play a stinker" twice in a row. I suspect when they jumped out to a 15-0 lead vs Buffalo, the Team may have become a bit complacent. Buffalo worked their way back into the game to make it closer, further bolstering Buffalo's confidence. BUT at no time was UCONN behind... there may have been some concerned looks but the Team dug down when they needed to and won by 12.
UCLA provides some different match ups and challenges...but I have faith in the Coaches and Team to pull it all together and play Husky Basketball!

GO HUSKIES!!

 

[BleedBlue72]

Hate to sound all doom and gloom, first u would have thought getting a number 2 seed would put a fire and a chip on there shoulder. I think it’s going to be very difficult for this team to get to the final four. UCLA is playing the best basketball right now at the right time. Usually the hottest team goes a long way. They are athletic, long and can rebound something this team lacks. We get into foul trouble game match season over. Pheese can’t be the only one to carry this team. Meghan had a horrible game against Buffalo .. when she’s on she’s unstoppable but when she’s not .. she’s not. Olivia needs to stop fouling .. we will need her. And Camara needs more minutes, she is ternatious on the boards and very physical .. and Coombs is a fierce defensive precense.. I don’t understand why those 2 players don’t get some minutes .. if they can get by UCLA Louisville is going to be very difficult to beat. The buffalo game showed us all this UCONN team is to inconsistent and this time of year it’s one and done, u lose your season is over. UCLA has a very good chance to take us out and to me it wouldn’t be a shock if it happens. Buffalo showed us all that we have weakness and UCLA will exploit them especially on the offensive boards. We need to shoot that ball well, stay out of foul trouble and hope Lou is 100 percent. I have a feeling Lou isn’t at her best and she’s playing through pain because it’s her last go around. UCLA and Louisville are very physical teams and I don’t want to get ahead of myself but Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Baylor are on fire in this tournament and cause so many issues for a UCONN team that doesn’t have any depth and a Katie Lou not 100 percent healthy. I love my huskies but just being honest here. It’s tourney time and anything can happen but the margin for error with this team is very small and now we’re facing the best of the best now.

 

[BleedBlue72]

Lastly how many open shots at the rim we missed against buffalo something we can’t do going foward. We need Meghan, to have big games in my opinion she is the main piece that’s going to get us to a final four. We know what we’re going to get from Lou Pheese and Crystal that’s a given!! Meghan is the piece.. if she plays like we seen her do then I like our chances

 

[connie]

How long did we go without a score late in the game . . .

Don't know. What I do know is that from 2:47 left in the 3Q until 2:16 left in the 4Q, UConn scored 2 points (a layup by Phees at the 4th Q 8:00 mark). That's one basket--2 points--in an entire quarter's worth of basketball. (Has any UConn WCBB team ever done that? Ever?)

Not being critical. Just noting the obvious . . . when it comes to sports, anything can happen--a team can hit 10 3-pointers in a row; or they can go 1 for 20; they can go an entire season without a single player fouling out; and they can then have 3 players foul out in the same game; a 90% FT shooter can go 1 for 9, or a 60% FT shooter can go 10 for 10 from the line; a guy who's never gone deep on a left-hander in his life can jack 2 in a row in the late innings of critical game in the pennant stretch. It's like a Russell Stover sampler; you never know what you're gonna get. But if you experience enough of it, it'll make you puke up your lungs.

 

[Los24]

Virtually all past UConn teams had 1-2 shut down defenders. This year we have none. Crystal is quick but can be beaten on drives to the basket. 2019 defense one of worst I remember in many years of watching Huskies. Still think Final 4 is possible but flawed team.

So Pheesa being DPOY in conference doesn't get us at least one good defensive player? Her steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, help defense.... Ono when not in foul trouble is also a very impactful defensive force. We also have one other player off the bench whose staple is defense.

Again, unless we win every game by double digits (which we have in the tournament thus far) then we are barely a decent team. Our PPG allowed is near the top and even the games we lost we held our opponent under their average. How is that one of the worst?

Every team is flawed, as every team has at least a loss. Again regarding defense, as much as I respect Kia's tenacity, the only way that some of those top players like Asia were shutdown or hampered last year was ultimately through team defense. One on one she would have been scorched. Lockdown perimeter 1 on 1 defender is rare... Mo-jet was one of the best.

 

[Los24]

Don't know. What I do know is that from 2:47 left in the 3Q until 2:16 left in the 4Q, UConn scored 2 points (a layup by Phees at the 4th Q 8:00 mark). That's one basket--2 points--in an entire quarter's worth of basketball. (Has any UConn WCBB team ever done that? Ever?)

Not being critical. Just noting the obvious . . . when it comes to sports, anything can happen--a team can hit 10 3-pointers in a row; or they can go 1 for 20; they can go an entire season without a single player fouling out; and they can then have 3 players foul out in the same game; a 90% FT shooter can go 1 for 9, or a 60% FT shooter can go 10 for 10 from the line; a guy who's never gone deep on a left-hander in his life can jack 2 in a row in the late innings of critical game in the pennant stretch. It's like a Russell Stover sampler; you never know what you're gonna get. But if you experience enough of it, it'll make you puke up your lungs.

We scored 2 points and still won by double digits.... that should tell folks that even though there is not Stewie, Mo or Gabby that we are still a solid defensive team. Our losses and close games had to do with our offense getting stagnant and missing shots that we normally do not miss. To your point game are played because everyone is different and the unthinkable happens, like losing in FF in OT on last shots.

(Not towards you Connie but generally) I think what is hard for many here is that we have lost perspective and actually some of the fun of rooting for a very good team, plus believing in your team despite the holes. Men's Duke got by with a one point victory over a team that they more times than not would dominate. I bet their fans celebrated the win, still root with an expectation of how they will win and not analyze how many ways they could lose. I mean really, we have to rebound, play defense and hit shots to win??? Should any team expect to win at this point in the tournament if they fail miserably at those things... LOL

 

[oldude]

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

The disturbing thing is, we've seen the same tendencies for 3 years now. There's no "alpha dog" mentality among this group of players, nobody saying "I got this" and putting the team on their back.

Geno's team-oriented system works beautifully and attracts ego-free players, but there's a downside to that as well -- too much "nice" and too much "practice until you can't do it wrong" leaves you with robotic play and a lack of ability and willingness to improvise, take it to the opponent, and make the big play.

Man, you guys just don’t quit. UConn has lost exactly 4 games in 3 seasons. That’s better than any team in college basketball, men or women. If you really want to complain about a team, may I suggest you wander over to VolNation and join the party, because misery loves company.

 

[connie]

We scored 2 points and still won by double digits.... that should tell folks that even though there is not Stewie, Mo or Gabby that we are still a solid defensive team. Our losses and close games had to do with our offense getting stagnant and missing shots that we normally do not miss. To your point game are played because everyone is different and the unthinkable happens, like losing in FF in OT on last shots.

(Not towards you Connie but generally) I think what is hard for many here is that we have lost perspective and actually some of the fun of rooting for a very good team, plus believing in your team despite the holes. Men's Duke got by with a one point victory over a team that they more times than not would dominate. I bet their fans celebrated the win, still root with an expectation of how they will win and not analyze how many ways they could lose. I mean really, we have to rebound, play defense and hit shots to win??? Should any team expect to win at this point in the tournament if they fail miserably at those things... LOL

And even Stewie, Mo and Gabby are human (mostly).

In my opinion, "our" losses and close games had as much as anything else to do with the fact that it is simply impossible to play at an elite level game-in, game-out, without exception, and never lose. Eventually that happens. Even if you win 110 games in a row. Sooner or later, there are going to be games where for any number of reasons things don't go right (just as there are games where for any number of reasons things do go right--remember game 1 of the 16-17 season, when Florida State missed a 3 point shot that would've won the game and ended the streak at 74 games?).

Having said all that, I do agree that some appear to be surprised or disappointed when UConn does not purr like a machine and dominate. Well, that's hard to do, especially when there is just so much talent going around and when a team does not necessarily have all the right parts to dominate and go all the way. Heck; it's hard to do even when you've got the right parts and you rebound, play defense and hit shots.

Instead of us wondering why UConn may appear vulnerable to the possibility of defeat (hardly a foregone conclusion based on what many have observed here), maybe we should be asking how this team came to be so good given the circumstances and given the strength of the competition? Maybe we should be asking why UCLA would not have as good a chance as anyone else of hanging tough with UConn and possibly moving on to the Elite 8. While I hope that does not happen, I applaud their ability and success. And I hope for a great game--one that brings out the best in both teams. Let history take care of the rest. Relax and enjoy the ride.

 

[HopJim]

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

Take your pick. "Tight" or "tired?" Hate to play the "Geno needs to sub card" but players coming back from injury or colds often need a rest.

 

[hoopsfan22]

From what Im reading UCLA is not a good shooting team from deep. They rebound well and they run well. So slow down the game, make them shoot from the outside, and pack it in. That settles the rebounding, the poor shooting, and running the score up. If you look at my post above which shows UCLAs end of season losses ,it appears that teams that slow it down and keep the score down against UCLA win.

I don't think we're that much better of a shooting team from outside. We make 36% of our 3s, they make 31%. Our best 3-point shooter this season is Molly who has made 55% of her 3-point attempts, followed by Kyla at 39.1%, and then Megan at 38.4%. I really hope we don't try to slow the game down. That's when we look awful as we're forced to sit in a defensive position for 20 seconds, and then are forced into the half court offense when we have the ball which has been problematic all season. When we run, no one can beat us. An uptempo up and down the court kind of game where we're getting a lot of shots favors UConn.

 

[enigmatic]

Until it ends, I'm faithfully going all the way with the belief upon what CW stated before the season started that they're gonna feel UCONN this year. The road has been tougher than ever and obviously not the usual but I think we can do it. I'll be modest though too and say that UCLA will definitely be a tough out with the way they've been playing down the stretch of the season.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Until it ends, I'm faithfully going all the way with the belief upon what CW stated before the season started that they're gonna feel UCONN this year. The road has been tougher than ever and obviously not the usual but I think we can do it. I'll be modest though too and say that UCLA will definitely be a tough out with the way they've been playing down the stretch of the season.

CW can make that happen. If she stays aggressive and avoids fouls, she could be a big X-factor!

 

[OneTrickPony]

Y’all are forgetting the obvious...this is Sparta! (er, UCONN)...same thing.

We play our game, we beat UCLA and Louisville. Both will be exciting games, but I am highly confident of the outcomes.

Then we see the most talented team in the tourney...the Irish. That will be another game of the Century from a viewer’s perspective. As a fan, it won’t be the weekend to stop sniffing glue...

The survivor should be favored in the final regardless of who it is.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Just saw this truck at my doctor's office in NC, and now feel lot better about our weekend prospects. Hope the back windshield picture comes through for you. Love that the moon really is a C

 

[OneTrickPony]

Y’all are forgetting the obvious...this is Sparta! (er, UCONN)...same thing.

We play our game, we beat UCLA and Louisville. Both will be exciting games, but I am highly confident of the outcomes.

Then we see the most talented team in the tourney...the Irish. That will be another game of the Century from a viewer’s perspective. As a fan, it won’t be the weekend to stop sniffing glue...

The survivor should be favored in the final regardless of who it is.

(heh, heh)...