UCLA UConn

[Zorro]

I hate to agree with 82, but we ARE definitely DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!! Get out the crepe and the flowers!

 

[ctkaiser]

Frankly, I don’t think Oregon & MD are particularly good defensive teams. MD in particular allowed UCLA to get a bunch of uncontested jump shots from 15’ in, and just about every single MD defender got beat repeatedly off the dribble. Against Stanford, a good defensive team, UCLA had 51 pts.

I love the UConn huskies but I've seen a few games this year where our players take turns getting beat off the dribble. The UCLA offense seems to flow from Dean.
She's young and improving even though reckless at times. I thought she looked a little tight vs Tennessee but played loose but focused vs Maryland. Crystal needs to do a number on Dean on the defensive end and it wouldn't hurt to throw in Mykala for a few minutes on her as well. I'm looking forward to a competitive game and a win for the more experienced Huskies.

 

[chrissaran]

If we play anything like we did against Buffalo, it will be Katie Lou and Napheesa's last game. We need to run the offense, take care of the ball, rebound a hell of a lot better, and hit our free throws.

 

[pvdoggy]

I can't believe some people think that UCONN can lose to UCLA by 12-15 or more. Seriously? You must have watched a different team than me this season even with all their flaws.

 

[Carnac]

The solution to rebounding by the opposition is shooting a high percentage--so there are fewer rebounds. Against Buffalo, we shot lights out early in the game and built a lead. In the second half when our shots weren't falling, Buffalo was able to rebound and creep back into the game. What is insoluble is for UConn to become a great rebounding team between now and Friday; the athletes we have this year just aren't adept at collecting rebounds. They lack size and speed. We also get in trouble when we continually trap the opposition. Eventually, they get open for easy lay-ins.
UCLA has lost 12 times this year, so they're hardly unbeatable. Maryland's excuse for losing yet another key game was that they lacked intensity. We can do intensity.
It's pretty obvious: make shots, which we can, or make summer plans.

Trapping uses up a lot of energy too. You're right. When trapping, once the ball crosses half court, if UConn's defenders don't sprint back into position, somebody is open. usually a 3 pt. sniper in one of the corners.

 

[Carnac]

As I said - I don't much listen to pundits...

Good for you!! When you want to know something, just tune in to the Boneyard. The basketball savants here (of whom there are many) will keep you in the know!!

 

[chrissaran]

Nothing to do with UCLA. The dumbest thing the Buffalo coach said was if only the game was five minutes longer. That's only if there's overtime.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Most of your "at large" teams are gone.

That's really not true. About half of the field is "at large." It's actually most of the automatic qualifiers that have been eliminated. The vast majority of the remaining field is from the ACC/SEC/Pac 12 and only 1 team from each conference isn't an at large bid.

 

[Jronp]

This game won’t be that close! They won’t score that much against us. Our D plays when it needs to!

 

[oldude]

That's really not true. About half of the field is "at large." It's actually most of the automatic qualifiers that have been eliminated. The vast majority of the remaining field is from the ACC/SEC/Pac 12 and only 1 team from each conference isn't an at large bid.

It’s exactly half with 8 AQ’s and 8 at large teams headed to the Sweet 16.

 

[Carnac]

This game won’t be that close! They won’t score that much against us. Our D plays when it needs to!

Granted THIS team does not have the defensive "chops" that UConn teams are known for. For the most part they were able to hold most teams under their season scoring average this year. We certainly hope UConn is up to the challenge to play some of the tightest, stingiest and foul free defense of the season. The kind of defense that makes Geno (and UConn Nation) smile.

 

[nwhoopfan]

It’s exactly half with 8 AQ’s and 8 at large teams headed to the Sweet 16.

Well...I'm half right. Most of the AQ's have been eliminated. But so have most of the at large as well.

 

[Carnac]

That's really not true. About half of the field is "at large." It's actually most of the automatic qualifiers that have been eliminated. The vast majority of the remaining field is from the ACC/SEC/Pac 12 and only 1 team from each conference isn't an at large bid.

Really? You mean most of them are still playing? How many at large teams made the tournament?
Per oldude, there are only 8 left (Thanks OD).

 

[NEforceUConn]

.....Crystal needs to do a number on Dean on the defensive end and it wouldn't hurt to throw in Mykala for a few minutes on her as well.

Crystal will take care of Dean, no worries whatsoever on my part. If MC has to come in for a 3-4 minute breather she will as well. Although I don't think Geno will go that way.

So hats off - its Crystal time.

ps I truly hope CD is healthy.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Really? You mean most of them are still playing? How many at large teams made the tournament?

Oldude beat you to it. The point is that most of the AQs are gone as well. When you go from 64 to 16 obviously a lot of teams are going to be eliminated, regardless of what their avenue to making the field was.

 

[Carnac]

Oldude beat you to it. The point is that most of the AQs are gone as well. When you go from 64 to 16 obviously a lot of teams are going to be eliminated, regardless of what their avenue to making the field was.

Thank you sir, that was my point. There are 32 Division 1 conferences. That means 32 automatic bids, and 32 at large teams. If only 8 of the 32 at large teams are still playing, that means 24 (most) of them are gone. You see where I'm going with this. I only referenced "at large" teams. So the current numbers would suggest my comment was correct.

 

[connie]

If I remember correctly when UConn lost to LVille and Baylor we played poorly and late in the game we were still in it. Those games we scheduled when we had been on the road forever and we played poorly. If we play like that against UCLA we win. Im not concerned about UCLA at all. I like UConn winning by double digets. Why I think that way is because UCLA as good as they played against MD they were trailing alot and I think we would blow MD out. Another point Buffalo was a blow out until UConn got into foul trouble and Buffalo could score at will while UConn was defenseless. Barring injuries and alot of foul trouble we're going to the FF. Hey if we're hitting shots UCLA doesnt rebound. We are not MD we are UConn. Another point if UCLA hits the boards and we get the rebound we are off to the races. UCOnn by double digets.

Love your spirit and confidence. Hope you’re right. If you aren’t, I’m really gonna rub it in.

 

[DeeHusky]

This UCLA Team would stand little chance of winning vs last year's UCONN Team. This year's UCONN team has 3 players that can be counted on to perform nearly every game. Last year's UCONN team had 5 on the floor that could be counted on to perform at all times. That is the big difference I see, and, having seen UCLA up close (vs OSU), this team is brimming with confidence & can score: The two qualities that Geno recently pointed out are the dangerous teams for this year's UCONN squad. I'm not saying UCONN won't win, I am saying that I think UCONN will be in a 4 quarter battle with UCLA.

*One player that can be counted on every game.

 

[IrishTiger]

UCONN will most likely win the game by 20+.

 

[buddy]

We currently sit in the AAC largely because of ESPN. That's about as anti-UConn as you can get. They acted in concert with the ACC to destroy the old Big East because they had hitched their economic wagon to the ACC. Getting rid of the Big East meant one less major conference mouth to feed with rights fees. UConn got voted out of the ACC by Boston College, Clemson and Florida State, but ESPN was calling the shots from behind the scenes. The North Carolina schools wanted UConn. Meanwhile, UConn's administration sat idly by while watching a glorified community college in northern Kentucky, with a corrupt athletic administration, lobby the ACC for admission. Adding insult to injury, the politicians in CT have showered ESPN with tax breaks to keep them from leaving the state. The state has become ESPN's lapdog, while ESPN is principally responsible for putting UConn's athletic budget in a 40 million dollar hole. Rest assured UConn has no friends in management at ESPN.

Thank you. That is an excellent summary and very true!

 

[ballhawk]

There is quite a bit of negativity in these posts. UConn lost by 9 to Baylor and 11 to Louisville on the road. Is UCLA as good as those teams? I don't think so. And the Sweet 16 is essentially a home game. For my two cents if Lou is near 100% we should win by double digits. We did win by double digits against ND and we did against South Carolina. We're not the UConn of the last 6 years but we're 33-2 and still really good. Uconn has lost only two Sweet 16s in 25 years. Friday night will not be the third time.

 

[EasyEd]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

 

[Gus Mahler]

If I remember correctly when UConn lost to LVille and Baylor we played poorly and late in the game we were still in it.

I've always thought the "badness" of those losses were overstated. I think the final margin in each was nine, but to me they were more like 5-6 point games. If home court is worth three, then they were 2-3 point games. And Lou was in the depths of her shooting slump for each.

So I've never thought we should be afraid of playing Louisville again on a neutral court (which actually favors UConn geographically). And if we had to play Baylor, say in the championship game, I would go in feeling like we had a shot.

It's Notre Dame that concerns me.

 

[BostonCanuck]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

As of now, Massey still has UConn with an 80% chance of beating UCLA, with a projected margin of 10 points. Remember, the sports book lines are designed to even out the aggregate amount of bets being placed on either side of the line, not to predict actual outcomes. Probably a lot of exited Californians were liking that earlier line as an opportunity to place a bet in favor of their team, so the line has moved to correct the betting imbalance. Actual odds of victory, however, have not really changed.

Pretty sure we got this one on Friday.

 

[Oldbones]

ESPN is anti UConn in everything.

To be fair, they do give great tours to prospective UCONN recruits.

 

[Huskee11]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

This is not correct. The line for the game is still 10. The line on the 1st quarter is 3.

 

[connie]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

I'll give you a "like" for the statistical legwork. However, the team stats can be a bit misleading since they only reflect an average of overall performance based on total games against given teams over the course of a long season. They may provide some reliable guidance as to performance in a single future game. But that's about it. Additionally, such stats become more meaningful if we compare performances against comparable opponents. Unfortunately, the data does not help us in that respect.

More to the point, I would think that the focus should be on how well theses teams have been playing of late. UCLA looks very strong. UConn . . . ? Well, but for the second half of the game against Buffalo . . . I'd say the same. I guess we'll see what happens Friday.

 

[Tonyc]

Our W-2's (Walker and Williams) have been playing great as of late. No one has brought that up. I mentioned earlier in the season this is a very good team but not invincible. We have 5 scorers and a shot blocker coming off the bench, along with a defensive specialist. We're a pretty good team. If UCLA comes out and scores 63 like they did against LMU or 49 against UNC or 74 against UK or against USF 56 or 65 against IND do you think UConn will loose? How much better are those opponents then UConn?

 

[Tenspro2002]

There is quite a bit of negativity in these posts. UConn lost by 9 to Baylor and 11 to Louisville on the road. Is UCLA as good as those teams? I don't think so. And the Sweet 16 is essentially a home game. For my two cents if Lou is near 100% we should win by double digits. We did win by double digits against ND and we did against South Carolina. We're not the UConn of the last 6 years but we're 33-2 and still really good. Uconn has lost only two Sweet 16s in 25 years. Friday night will not be the third time.

The fact is, of the 4 teams remaining in Albany, we looked like the 3rd best team in our last game. Only Oregon State was shakier, and they're going to get killed by Louisville anyway. Frankly, both teams in the UCLA-Maryland game looked better than us.

This being a de facto home game for us and UCLA having their second week on the road helps. But they are a hungry, aggressive team, and we still, for the 3rd year in a row now, have a tendency to play tight in pressure situations.