UCLA UConn

[Carnac]

Oldude beat you to it. The point is that most of the AQs are gone as well. When you go from 64 to 16 obviously a lot of teams are going to be eliminated, regardless of what their avenue to making the field was.

Thank you sir, that was my point. There are 32 Division 1 conferences. That means 32 automatic bids, and 32 at large teams. If only 8 of the 32 at large teams are still playing, that means 24 (most) of them are gone. You see where I'm going with this. I only referenced "at large" teams. So the current numbers would suggest my comment was correct.

 

[connie]

If I remember correctly when UConn lost to LVille and Baylor we played poorly and late in the game we were still in it. Those games we scheduled when we had been on the road forever and we played poorly. If we play like that against UCLA we win. Im not concerned about UCLA at all. I like UConn winning by double digets. Why I think that way is because UCLA as good as they played against MD they were trailing alot and I think we would blow MD out. Another point Buffalo was a blow out until UConn got into foul trouble and Buffalo could score at will while UConn was defenseless. Barring injuries and alot of foul trouble we're going to the FF. Hey if we're hitting shots UCLA doesnt rebound. We are not MD we are UConn. Another point if UCLA hits the boards and we get the rebound we are off to the races. UCOnn by double digets.

Love your spirit and confidence. Hope you’re right. If you aren’t, I’m really gonna rub it in.

 

[DeeHusky]

This UCLA Team would stand little chance of winning vs last year's UCONN Team. This year's UCONN team has 3 players that can be counted on to perform nearly every game. Last year's UCONN team had 5 on the floor that could be counted on to perform at all times. That is the big difference I see, and, having seen UCLA up close (vs OSU), this team is brimming with confidence & can score: The two qualities that Geno recently pointed out are the dangerous teams for this year's UCONN squad. I'm not saying UCONN won't win, I am saying that I think UCONN will be in a 4 quarter battle with UCLA.

*One player that can be counted on every game.

 

[IrishTiger]

UCONN will most likely win the game by 20+.

 

[buddy]

We currently sit in the AAC largely because of ESPN. That's about as anti-UConn as you can get. They acted in concert with the ACC to destroy the old Big East because they had hitched their economic wagon to the ACC. Getting rid of the Big East meant one less major conference mouth to feed with rights fees. UConn got voted out of the ACC by Boston College, Clemson and Florida State, but ESPN was calling the shots from behind the scenes. The North Carolina schools wanted UConn. Meanwhile, UConn's administration sat idly by while watching a glorified community college in northern Kentucky, with a corrupt athletic administration, lobby the ACC for admission. Adding insult to injury, the politicians in CT have showered ESPN with tax breaks to keep them from leaving the state. The state has become ESPN's lapdog, while ESPN is principally responsible for putting UConn's athletic budget in a 40 million dollar hole. Rest assured UConn has no friends in management at ESPN.

Thank you. That is an excellent summary and very true!

 

[ballhawk]

There is quite a bit of negativity in these posts. UConn lost by 9 to Baylor and 11 to Louisville on the road. Is UCLA as good as those teams? I don't think so. And the Sweet 16 is essentially a home game. For my two cents if Lou is near 100% we should win by double digits. We did win by double digits against ND and we did against South Carolina. We're not the UConn of the last 6 years but we're 33-2 and still really good. Uconn has lost only two Sweet 16s in 25 years. Friday night will not be the third time.

 

[EasyEd]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

 

[Gus Mahler]

If I remember correctly when UConn lost to LVille and Baylor we played poorly and late in the game we were still in it.

I've always thought the "badness" of those losses were overstated. I think the final margin in each was nine, but to me they were more like 5-6 point games. If home court is worth three, then they were 2-3 point games. And Lou was in the depths of her shooting slump for each.

So I've never thought we should be afraid of playing Louisville again on a neutral court (which actually favors UConn geographically). And if we had to play Baylor, say in the championship game, I would go in feeling like we had a shot.

It's Notre Dame that concerns me.

 

[BostonCanuck]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

As of now, Massey still has UConn with an 80% chance of beating UCLA, with a projected margin of 10 points. Remember, the sports book lines are designed to even out the aggregate amount of bets being placed on either side of the line, not to predict actual outcomes. Probably a lot of exited Californians were liking that earlier line as an opportunity to place a bet in favor of their team, so the line has moved to correct the betting imbalance. Actual odds of victory, however, have not really changed.

Pretty sure we got this one on Friday.

 

[Oldbones]

ESPN is anti UConn in everything.

To be fair, they do give great tours to prospective UCONN recruits.

 

[Huskee11]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I was just looking at the betting line for UConn/UCLA. It looks like UConn started as a 10 point favorite and they're now down to a 3 point favorite. It will be interesting to see how UConn responds if it is that close. I just hope it doesn't go to overtime as I forget the last time UConn won an overtime game.

This is not correct. The line for the game is still 10. The line on the 1st quarter is 3.

 

[connie]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

I'll give you a "like" for the statistical legwork. However, the team stats can be a bit misleading since they only reflect an average of overall performance based on total games against given teams over the course of a long season. They may provide some reliable guidance as to performance in a single future game. But that's about it. Additionally, such stats become more meaningful if we compare performances against comparable opponents. Unfortunately, the data does not help us in that respect.

More to the point, I would think that the focus should be on how well theses teams have been playing of late. UCLA looks very strong. UConn . . . ? Well, but for the second half of the game against Buffalo . . . I'd say the same. I guess we'll see what happens Friday.

 

[Tonyc]

Our W-2's (Walker and Williams) have been playing great as of late. No one has brought that up. I mentioned earlier in the season this is a very good team but not invincible. We have 5 scorers and a shot blocker coming off the bench, along with a defensive specialist. We're a pretty good team. If UCLA comes out and scores 63 like they did against LMU or 49 against UNC or 74 against UK or against USF 56 or 65 against IND do you think UConn will loose? How much better are those opponents then UConn?

 

[Tenspro2002]

There is quite a bit of negativity in these posts. UConn lost by 9 to Baylor and 11 to Louisville on the road. Is UCLA as good as those teams? I don't think so. And the Sweet 16 is essentially a home game. For my two cents if Lou is near 100% we should win by double digits. We did win by double digits against ND and we did against South Carolina. We're not the UConn of the last 6 years but we're 33-2 and still really good. Uconn has lost only two Sweet 16s in 25 years. Friday night will not be the third time.

The fact is, of the 4 teams remaining in Albany, we looked like the 3rd best team in our last game. Only Oregon State was shakier, and they're going to get killed by Louisville anyway. Frankly, both teams in the UCLA-Maryland game looked better than us.

This being a de facto home game for us and UCLA having their second week on the road helps. But they are a hungry, aggressive team, and we still, for the 3rd year in a row now, have a tendency to play tight in pressure situations.

 

[Carnac]

Wow, lots of fretting going on here on the ol' Boneyard.

The concern is that UCLA is very athletic, got 27 offensive rebounds against Maryland, and shot 20-21 from the line; while we gave up 25 offensive rebounds against Buffalo and we shot 20-32 from the line. Oh, and we looked tentative down the stretch. We will need to do better on both fronts. I know they will work hard this week to do just that.

By the way, Maryland was 1-13 from three and 15-25 from the line. A slight improvement in those numbers and they win.

Some stats worth noting:

1. Although UCLA averages about three more shots per game than us, we shoot it at 49.5% versus 41.7% for UCLA. Our three point percentage is 36.3% versus 30.8% for UCLA, and we make about eight a game to their five. Dean is their only player with more than 50. So we have a clear advantage shooting.

2. UCLA has been shooting well from the line recently, but both teams are about 73% for the year. They get to the line slightly more than us. So maybe slight advantage UCLA. Hope they revert to the mean.

3. We average about 9 more ppg, 83 to 74, and we hold opponents to 13 less points than UCLA. They allow almost 69 points per game. Opponents shoot 41.7% against them, while opponents are 33.8% against us. So, I`m thinking we should be able to score enough to win, just have to stop them on the defensive end.

4. Opponents average about 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against both teams. We only get about 12 offensive rebounds a game, while UCLA averages a little over 17. So UCLA is not surprisingly the better offensive rebounding team, but worth noting that the 27 against Maryland was well above their average. Also note we had 18 offensive rebounds against Buffalo.

5. We average 20 assists per game, to 14 for UCLA (12 on 29 FG against Maryland). Our turnovers are slightly less per game. Slight advantage UConn.

6. Both teams have about the same number of blocks, but neither team blocks a ton. No one with more than 33 for UCLA, but four players with at least 20. We have two with 50 or more. So Napheesa, and hopefully Megan and ONO, should be able to score insde.

7. Both teams draw about 17 fouls a game. We commit about 12, they are about five more, slightly over 17. We did commit 21 against Buffalo, though, with four players having four fouls. That was a very tightly called game, and at least partly explains our less than spectacular play down the stretch.

Boiling it down, I think we will be able to score against UCLA and our defense, which generally holds teams to low percentages, should be able to do that here as well since they are not a great shooting team. Hope their free throw percentage reverts to their season mean.

They average 17 offensive rebounds a game and we need to keep them at or near that number or below. We need to play smart defensively, avoid fouling, and hope against hope that the referees who called the Buffalo game are nowhere near Albany.

It will be a high scoring affair, but if we can avoid foul trouble I think we win by 10-15.

Excellent analysis of the game. Thanks. Everyone in the yard needs to read this post. It certainly answered some questions I had about this match up.

 

[buddy]

If UConn plays well, they will win. Don't play well, lose. Simple as that.

 

[hoopsfan22]

The fact is, of the 4 teams remaining in Albany, we looked like the 3rd best team in our last game. Only Oregon State was shakier, and they're going to get killed by Louisville anyway. Frankly, both teams in the UCLA-Maryland game looked better than us.

This being a de facto home game for us and UCLA having their second week on the road helps. But they are a hungry, aggressive team, and we still, for the 3rd year in a row now, have a tendency to play tight in pressure situations.

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Tight is putting it mildly. How long did we go without a score late in the game when Buffalo, an undersized team from the MAC that already lost nine games playing on the road with seven freshmen and a star with a sprained ankle, was making a charge to cut the lead to 11? It seems like when the team faces any sort of adversity it panics and they lose composure. When they're on they are really really good, and when they're frozen up they're really really not.

The disturbing thing is, we've seen the same tendencies for 3 years now. There's no "alpha dog" mentality among this group of players, nobody saying "I got this" and putting the team on their back.

Geno's team-oriented system works beautifully and attracts ego-free players, but there's a downside to that as well -- too much "nice" and too much "practice until you can't do it wrong" leaves you with robotic play and a lack of ability and willingness to improvise, take it to the opponent, and make the big play.

 

[Tonyc]

From what Im reading UCLA is not a good shooting team from deep. They rebound well and they run well. So slow down the game, make them shoot from the outside, and pack it in. That settles the rebounding, the poor shooting, and running the score up. If you look at my post above which shows UCLAs end of season losses ,it appears that teams that slow it down and keep the score down against UCLA win.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Excellent analysis of the game. Thanks. This post answers all the questions or concerns anyone may have about this match up.

Thanks @Huskee11 , I agree with @Scoop . Hard to compare the games from this past weekend when UCONN did not play their normal game vs Buffalo and UCLA played a great game vs MD. I was a "casual observer" of UCONN WBB for a handful of years, and became more active (as in don't miss a game) in the last 4 years. One thing I have noticed is UCONN does not "play a stinker" twice in a row. I suspect when they jumped out to a 15-0 lead vs Buffalo, the Team may have become a bit complacent. Buffalo worked their way back into the game to make it closer, further bolstering Buffalo's confidence. BUT at no time was UCONN behind... there may have been some concerned looks but the Team dug down when they needed to and won by 12.
UCLA provides some different match ups and challenges...but I have faith in the Coaches and Team to pull it all together and play Husky Basketball!

GO HUSKIES!!

 

[BleedBlue72]

Hate to sound all doom and gloom, first u would have thought getting a number 2 seed would put a fire and a chip on there shoulder. I think it’s going to be very difficult for this team to get to the final four. UCLA is playing the best basketball right now at the right time. Usually the hottest team goes a long way. They are athletic, long and can rebound something this team lacks. We get into foul trouble game match season over. Pheese can’t be the only one to carry this team. Meghan had a horrible game against Buffalo .. when she’s on she’s unstoppable but when she’s not .. she’s not. Olivia needs to stop fouling .. we will need her. And Camara needs more minutes, she is ternatious on the boards and very physical .. and Coombs is a fierce defensive precense.. I don’t understand why those 2 players don’t get some minutes .. if they can get by UCLA Louisville is going to be very difficult to beat. The buffalo game showed us all this UCONN team is to inconsistent and this time of year it’s one and done, u lose your season is over. UCLA has a very good chance to take us out and to me it wouldn’t be a shock if it happens. Buffalo showed us all that we have weakness and UCLA will exploit them especially on the offensive boards. We need to shoot that ball well, stay out of foul trouble and hope Lou is 100 percent. I have a feeling Lou isn’t at her best and she’s playing through pain because it’s her last go around. UCLA and Louisville are very physical teams and I don’t want to get ahead of myself but Notre Dame, Mississippi State and Baylor are on fire in this tournament and cause so many issues for a UCONN team that doesn’t have any depth and a Katie Lou not 100 percent healthy. I love my huskies but just being honest here. It’s tourney time and anything can happen but the margin for error with this team is very small and now we’re facing the best of the best now.

 

[BleedBlue72]

Lastly how many open shots at the rim we missed against buffalo something we can’t do going foward. We need Meghan, to have big games in my opinion she is the main piece that’s going to get us to a final four. We know what we’re going to get from Lou Pheese and Crystal that’s a given!! Meghan is the piece.. if she plays like we seen her do then I like our chances

 

[connie]

How long did we go without a score late in the game . . .

Don't know. What I do know is that from 2:47 left in the 3Q until 2:16 left in the 4Q, UConn scored 2 points (a layup by Phees at the 4th Q 8:00 mark). That's one basket--2 points--in an entire quarter's worth of basketball. (Has any UConn WCBB team ever done that? Ever?)

Not being critical. Just noting the obvious . . . when it comes to sports, anything can happen--a team can hit 10 3-pointers in a row; or they can go 1 for 20; they can go an entire season without a single player fouling out; and they can then have 3 players foul out in the same game; a 90% FT shooter can go 1 for 9, or a 60% FT shooter can go 10 for 10 from the line; a guy who's never gone deep on a left-hander in his life can jack 2 in a row in the late innings of critical game in the pennant stretch. It's like a Russell Stover sampler; you never know what you're gonna get. But if you experience enough of it, it'll make you puke up your lungs.