Here's a different take on the NIL miasma.
- Posit a high school girl ranked (by the usual suspects) in the top ten or top twenty. Assume she is of at very least average intelligence, in addition to being an outstanding athlete. Further, assume she is a person of good character, and that she values education as well as sports excellence. Her choice of college may be limited only by her academic abilities. If she is also articulate and “attractive” in any conventional sense of that word…
NIL offers will follow her to the school of her choice. She will pick the school that best meets her sports and academic goals.
2. Now change the assumptions slightly. Basketball skills are slightly less, with rankings in the 20 to 50 range. Academic proficiency is average, at best. Based on the other factors mentioned above being roughly equal, her college choices will be more limited, but still considerable.
She will probably receive some NIL offers, though not of the blockbuster caliber available to the people in N°. 1, above. NIL money will more likely affect her choice of schools IF, and it's a big IF, such offers or hints that they shall be forthcoming, are made prior to making a commitment. Oherwise, she will pick a school from the available offers, and then deal with the NIL opportunities as they may arise.
There is a third category, though we have no way of measuring its reach: The kid has basketball talents, and some unscrupulous coaches or programs try to win her over by dangling deals, or slimy boosters pass the word that big bucks will come her way if she signs with University of X.
If she is in category N°. 1, of good character, reasonably bright,
etc., she will probably not be impressed. If her intelligence and moral standards aren't quite up to her level of her athletic prowess, the outcome may be driven by $$. I don't believe Geno & Co. recruit such people.