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They're Back..

Bone Dog said:
I like your analysis. I'd add in one caveat that the 2 v 3 question is not just a scoring issue. The psychology of dominance also plays a role and contributes to defense as well. This is one reason why a smart player -- like Paige -- is key. A well-timed shot takes into account more factors than just the likelihood of it going in. A dagger from 3 can be devastating, but so can a seemingly effortless 2 pt shot.

This is going to get anecdotal, but it's still objectively valid: many times we've seen Paige sink a quick 2 in the midrange when the rest of the team's offensive confidence is shot. This can be like a shot in the arm for her teammates, and is something she is very attuned to. Similarly, after a tough defensive stand in which the girls force the other team into a tough shot at the end of the shot clock (or maybe even force a a shot clock violation), if Paige sinks an immediate midrange or perimeter jumper before any time has elapsed on the shot clock, it can be utterly demoralizing to an opponent. It also puts even more pressure on the opponent's shotmaking confidence -- they struggle to get even an awkward shot off and then Paige converts it to 2 pts at the other end in the blink of an eye.

Similarly with transition 3s. Paige can sink those all day, but she only takes them under certain conditions. If she has a numbers advantage, she'll often pass for the transition layup. But if her teammates are following close behind and she's about to have an advantage she'll take that 3 because she knows the team will be in better position for a long rebound. That's the PG mentality she has, in addition to everything else: court balance is always on her mind. An ill-timed perimeter shot that leads to a transition layup is like a gift to the opponent, and Geno teaches them to do this to others, not to themselves.
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Agree. The analysis above is based on team optimization of 2 vs 3 selection, without regard to remarkable go-to players (even more so if they are true three-level threats) and the vagaries of shot-making to affect momentum.

At the optimized percentages (e.g. 60% for twos, 38% for threes, assuming 80% FT%, etc.), the offense can choose the best shot, and the defense has to respect the possibility of all shots because they are equally lethal, probability-wise.

Paige is unique (as Boston was unique), because they are crunch-time players who are lethal in their chosen shots. And Paige is lethal in almost all her shots, whether contested or not.

With expected better spacing, pace and quality shots of the current talented deep team, shot efficiency should go up. Paige, Azzi, perhaps Sarah, perhaps Jana are unique crunch time players giving the offense that extra oomph. It will probably be open season for the midrange jumper (which you posted on before).
 
NycUcWbbFan said:
Agree. The analysis above is based on team optimization of 2 vs 3 selection, without regard to remarkable go-to players (even more so if they are true three-level threats) and the vagaries of shot-making to affect momentum.

At the optimized percentages (e.g. 60% for twos, 38% for threes, assuming 80% FT%, etc.), the offense can choose the best shot, and the defense has to respect the possibility of all shots because they are equally lethal, probability-wise.

Paige is unique (as Boston was unique), because they are crunch-time players who are lethal in their chosen shots. And Paige is lethal in almost all her shots, whether contested or not.

With expected better spacing, pace and quality shots of the current talented deep team, shot efficiency should go up. Paige, Azzi, perhaps Sarah, perhaps Jana are unique crunch time players giving the offense that extra oomph. It will probably be open season for the midrange jumper (which you posted on before).
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While I admire Boston and wish she had been a Husky, I’m not sure I would characterize her as being”lethal”. I seem to recall multiple missed layups in several high pressure situations! One, at least was her multiple misses against Stanford as time ran out In the FF! Those misses almost certainly kept her from being a two time NCAA champion! There were several other similar situations where she missed point blank put backs that would have won the game. Again, I love her not only as a player but as a person of high class and integrity but she imo was maddeningly prone to not only missed bunnies but also would produce 4 for 17 games, 4 for 13 games more often than she should have. Of course she would also have games where she shot 9 for 12 and grabbed 18 boards! I believe she, CC, and Kelsey Mitchell are already a top 4 threesome in the W and are likely to really terrorize the W starting next year. However, any comparison to Paige is a real reach. Boston was/is a very good post player while Paige is a once in a lifetime player.
 
To get back to the subject, I can't wait for the official start of organized practices. That means that the regular season is about to begin. These young ladies seem to be jelling and enjoying each other as a team. I believe that if they can get through the season without any season ending injuries that they will bring home #12 for Paige and Azzi so that they can leave with at least one NC.
 
Cuango said:
While I admire Boston and wish she had been a Husky, I’m not sure I would characterize her as being”lethal”. I seem to recall multiple missed layups in several high pressure situations! One, at least was her multiple misses against Stanford as time ran out In the FF! Those misses almost certainly kept her from being a two time NCAA champion! There were several other similar situations where she missed point blank put backs that would have won the game. Again, I love her not only as a player but as a person of high class and integrity but she imo was maddeningly prone to not only missed bunnies but also would produce 4 for 17 games, 4 for 13 games more often than she should have. Of course she would also have games where she shot 9 for 12 and grabbed 18 boards! I believe she, CC, and Kelsey Mitchell are already a top 4 threesome in the W and are likely to really terrorize the W starting next year. However, any comparison to Paige is a real reach. Boston was/is a very good post player while Paige is a once in a lifetime player.
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Diana also had a 1 for 15 night as a freshman vs Notre Dame in the 2001 NCAA semi-finals. In UConn’s DT championship seasons, UConn had DT. But the margin of error wasn’t big.

South Carolina had Boston and, unfortunately (for us), UConn was greatly hobbled. In addition, their defense was great. While their offense pales in comparison with UConn’s dominant championship teams, SC’s defense gives them a large enough margin of error. Boston can slack off and it need not matter.

In the Paige-Boston championship matchup, Henderson had a unicorn great game. But how much of that was facilitated by the defense’s attention to Boston (on top of the hobbled status of Paige’s team)?

Part of Paige’s genius is her crafty way to maneuver herself to a spot to take a routine shot (for her). She can make crafty contested shots too, if she has to. Boston is generally reliant on others to give her the ball at a spot to make a shot. She might have preferred a better (timed/placed/situational) pass to make the shot more routine (for her) — which she is assuredly getting from her Fever team.

But I do get your point that Paige is more lethal in almost every type and circumstances of possessions than Boston.

All that said, it is a shame that Paige did not have a full team behind her in prior years. That would have been epic.
 
MSGRET said:
To get back to the subject, I can't wait for the official start of organized practices. That means that the regular season is about to begin. These young ladies seem to be jelling and enjoying each other as a team. I believe that if they can get through the season without any season ending injuries that they will bring home #12 for Paige and Azzi so that they can leave with at least one NC.
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Thank you Master Sgt. for trying to get this thread back on topic.

All the far too long messages filled with statistic after and on top of statistic trying to make an argument one way or the other for 3 pt shot, vs 2 pt shot, vs 2 pt shots with a free throw, then trying to calculate the value of getting a long rebound, vs-----I don't know what else!

Just give me tonyc.
 
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Dogstar said:
I've watched tht game at Ruckers and it's a glorified all star game with VERY little defense, and tbh Allie, Sarah and Morgan have to show tht they can adapt to D-1 competition. I believe that they'll all do well within the Uconn system. And while I Love Caroline she only has a 30% career 3-pt avg with her best year being her sophomore year at 33%
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While all freshmen have to "prove themselves" here are the recent ESPN No 1 recruits. Show me the one who failed to find success at the D1 level? (when healthy)
2020 - Bueckers
2021 - Fudd
2022 - Betts
2023 - Watkins

2024 - Strong

I don't think Ziebell was much more open at Rucker Park than she will be at first with UConn. And the hoop wasn't any bigger nor was the 3pt line closer. Six for six on a strange outdoor court ain't bad.

I don't make anyone a 100% lock and past experience is no guarantee of the future but I strongly suspect that UConn's freshman class (along with El Alfy) may well be the strongest UConn class coming in since the 1998 class.
 
NycUcWbbFan said:
The extra possibility of making 3 straight free throws #2 seems to tilt the calculus to the 3-pt shot.
  • UConn seems to get around 11 FTMs / game; even if 8 FTMs were due to 2-pt attempts, 8 vs 3 is not so different from 2 vs 1 (2FGA vs 3FGA in UConn’s schemes);
  • UConn’s 2015-16 team shot 60% from 2 and 38% (not 40%) from 3, and that was optimal #2 (see below);
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The binary decision to go for a two or for a three at a granular level is straightforward:
  • Note that not all two’s are the same level of difficulty (e.g. an uncontested layup is generally easier than an uncontested jumper);
  • also note that almost all three’s are the same level of difficulty, without regard to contestabilty;
  • for the same player, a step-back three is better than the closest long two;
  • KML would take an uncontested 3 vs driving to the basket;
  • Azzi for 3 is probably better than Ayanna for two at the foul line but not necessarily better than Sarah near the basket (the Pomeroy feature you highlighted); note that paint opportunities are not always available;
  • and so on.
With UConn’s versatile (all mostly 3-level) players in a read-and-react motion offense to find the best shot:
  • practices will tell the coaches the relative team efficiency in two’s vs. threes;
  • with such knowledge, coaches can set the percentages of threes vs twos, as a way to optimize the offense — generally 31-33% although it dipped (28%) in the 2009-10 team (Maya-Tina);
  • if UConn, as a (homogeneous — sort of) team can make two’s at a 60% rate #1, make free throws at an 80% rate, gets fouled with FTs awarded (mostly in the act of shooting a two) 10% of the time and gets fouled in the act of shooting a three 10% of the time, the team must be making three’s close to 38.00% #2, for such fact pattern to be optimal;
  • the fact-pattern above matches the 2015-16 team, with 64.6 FGA/game at 1.32 pts per FGA (modeled points of 85 pts / game vs 88 pts / game (actual));
  • This episodic optimization will apply to this hypothetical situation and mostly not necessarily apply to others.
For teams with similarly well-defined two’s vs three’s profile, the binary decision team optimization could be well-defined:
  • Teams with various credible 3-point threats but with a measly post offense will most often prefer the three to a two;
  • And vice versa (e.g. pre-Tehina Pao Pao/Tessa Johnson South Carolina years).
Another thread also attempted to discuss this.

#1 At 50% 2-pt accuracy, 3-pt accuracy must be close to 31% to be optimal. Counter intuitively, 31% is lower than 33%. The possibility of making 3 straight FT’s tilts the calculus towards the 3-point shot.

#2 Comparing Bayesian means of 2-pt attempts vs 3-pt attempts: made FGA with no foul, made FGA with foul, missed FGA with foul.
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Your assumption about drawing fouls is way off. If there are 11 free throws, on average far more than eight of them will be drawn on two points shots. Take some time exploring Pomeroy stats.
 
While its easy to get ultra excited about UConn's exceptional group of guards, suspect it will be the bigs, Jada/Ice and TBD/sub that will win them to the national championship. Unfortunately, there are some other great shooters out there and Huskies need to stop them, get rebounds, and make sure the competition can't clog up our 3-point game. Won't show up in the box score but with even an average performance by our bigs, our guards have the overall talent and X-factor (i.e. Paige) to go all the way.
 
Cuango said:
Not sure Chen is going to strike fear as a three point shooter! She’s obviously very good and an outstanding addition to the team but she is definitely not in the same category as Paige, Azzi, Allie, and Caroline When it comes to shooting threes. I believe Ash may be better as well. I would also bet hat Sarah will likely be in the high 30s as well, perhaps even 40+. This team has talent everywhere! It’s really unbelievable!
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I'm thinking that Kaitlyn will be more open than ever and can approach 40% this year. Here's hoping!
 
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BobbyJ said:
It’s true that Chen doesn’t scare anyone as a career 29% from 3. So why do so many people think Ducharme is elite from the arc at a career 30%? Bueckers is elite at 42% and Fudd is merely very good at 38%. Ducharme is not in that league and Ziebell needs to get in a college game first.
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Because of injuries, my local girl Azzi has underperformed. She has the potential for 55/45/90.
 
Speaking of Sarah....and that "other" newcomer:

Sarah and Jana September 2024.jpeg
 
Scud49 said:
Speaking of Sarah....and that "other" newcomer:

View attachment 103728
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According to Geno, the # 1A and # 1AA recruits in the incoming class (I know different recruiting classes, but 1st year for both as players). It's not a stretch to anticipate that they will be the most impactful incoming duo in the country.
Gosh, they could "almost" make you forget that we also have the #1 player in the country, the #1 player in the Ivy league last year and the #1 recruit in the country a couple of years ago.
Wait, I even forgot that we had 2 of the top 5 recruits (ICE & Yanna) two years ago and, in addition to SS we have 2 more top 10 recruits this year in AZ & MC.
Looking for # 12 in April 2025.
 
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Cuango said:
I’d be shocked if we have one player average 25+ points, much less two! I agree Paige and a healthy Azzi could score 20-25 points per game but probably not with this team. There’s just too much talent on this roster to allow anyone to be that dominant of a scorer! That kind of scoring requires a player to be basically without a conscience in addition to being a truly gifted scorer. I just don’t see that happening on any Geno Auriemma team much less one as talented throughout the roster as this one!
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If Geno gives Ash12 all the minutes she deserves--and will earn--and if the big girls up front produce, Paige and Azzi won't be doing 20-25 per game. Well, Paige might but not Azzi.
 
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