The View From Section 241 -- Realignment

[jpm25]

more like regurgitation of what's been posted on this board for the last 12 hours. But his word and screen name carries a ton of weight for some posters.

yes, on this board for 12 hours - read CBS or Pete Thamel and you this all weekend.

 

[LRock34]

Well, when something is presented as "analysis" when it has been said over and over, and is a complete departure from a "pound the table" position that has been preached from the self-consturucted pulpit for months, with all due respect to the poster it is comical.

+1

 

[rich1122]

We will be vindicated. Miami will have to play at the Rent and Sha-la-la-la will have eat crow (at the same time that she gives us a public apology). Something to look forward to.

But I think that we end up in the Big10.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

At least I wasn't billing you for it.

LOL!

Even better lawyer speak than the first statement!

 

[Vowelguy]

Even if we combine with the Big 12 it still damages them in the region.

Not half as much as they'd be damaged if they ended up in the BigXII or a non-BCS conference.

A variation the Classic Prisoner's Dilemna: everyone may be better off if they all hold, but if others' defect and you don't ==> you're screwed. Solution: act first.

 

[huskyrob1]

I just typed a brilliant post on both ISU and realignment, but it was too long to post and I screwed up saving it so now I have to start again. I'm going to talk about realignment for a moment, because it seems unavoidable (and more important than any one game) and will try to get to my 241 column tonight.

What happened? In a nutshell, Swofford won by following Coach Brown's mantra -- solve your problems with aggression. The ACC was destined to be the 4th best FB conference, by a wide margin behind the other 3, because it was going to see which 16 the other leagues got and then take what was left up and down the east coast. Instead, by doing this he has now taken control I am sure he has now gone to ND and Texas and say you have this much time, and then we're giving up and going to UConn and RU and we are no longer an option for you (or leverage in your negotiations with others). He will not take them if they don't bring in their football programs, though he might give them a different TV deal, and more flexibility than the other conferences would. If they say yes, he's on a level with the other conferences in football. If no, he's made preemptive moves in the northeast before the Big Ten got to it. He stays competitive in the northeast forever. He has the dominant hoops conference. And, his conference is strong enogh, and makes enough geographic sense, that schools may not be in a hurry to leave if the SEC or Big Ten comes calling. It was a brilliant move -- it really was.

What does this mean for UConn? Hopefully, Texas and ND say no and we join a 16 team ACC that, while not my first choice (I'd prefer the status quo) might be the best we could have hoped for. If Texas and ND join the ACC, the Big Ten has to add RU and UConn or risk losing its current place in the NYC market forever. If neither happens, we have to pray the Big East adds the Big XII remnants. BEcause options beyond that get real ugly real fast. It's likely this is going to work out, but it is far from guaranteed. This is going to be very trying waiting for the news.

A few other points:

1. Why Pitt instead of UConn? If you ask which is better for the ACC going forward, I can't see a good reason (which I think is why JUrisch was so surprised). But, if you look at forcing other hands, this was the right move. Pitt was higher on the Big Ten's list than UConn, largely for geographic reasons and AAU affiliation, so this presses the Big Ten's hand much more. One more possibility, which I am just speculating on but wouldn't surprise me. Calhoun might have said we're not bailing while Dave Gavitt is on his deathbed. And Calhoun might have had the juice, earned, to make that happen.

2. Is ESPN behind this. I am reluctant to accuse them of serious antitrust violations, and possibly breaching contrctual duties of good faith an fair dealing, without any evidence whatsoever. But I will say this -- a lot of what is happening is much more easily explained by ESPN trying to protect it's near monopoly than it is by asking what the universities are getting out of this.

3. Could NOrdenberg have violated a fiduciary duty to the Big East or its members by doing this? It's possible. It totally depends on facts. Is that a criminal violation? No, of course not. No idea where Waylon gets this stuff from.

4. Is there any reason to blame Herbst, or Hathaway, or anyone else at UConn? No. The ACC, and every other conference, knows what each school brings. There is no reason to think everyone at UConn isn't doing what they can nor that the decision is likely to be made based on the realities of the situation -- not which officer makes the best phone calls.

5. Is this Providence's fault? No. You can't make members stay. Do you want Providence empowered to make us stay?

6. Would Syracuse and Pitt only do this if they knew RU, WVU and UConn would come out of this o.k.? You're kidding, right?

I've been so long typing my lost post and this that everything could be different by now. WE'll see.

I will try to do my normal 241 tonight, but I'm out of time for now and thought this would be more interesting. Have a good day all.

I vaguely recall some talk a while back that as long as Jopa has any say in the matter, that Pitt would never be allowed in the Big Ten.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

When the story broke about a week ago that UT (preferrably with UConn, Cuse and Pitt) was looking into joining the ACC (with the LHN remaining fully in UT's control) there were rumors that ESPN was willing to up the ACC's television contract, solely to protect their investment in the LHN.

I am fully convinved that ESPN is pulling many strings here but I also believe they are intelligent enough to keep themselves far enough out of the actual conversations that they are safe from anything other than allegations. UT's decision still being up in the air is why I am not yet ready to believe that the eventual home for UConn athletics has already been decided.

 

[RS9999X]

I am sure he has now gone to ND and Texas and say you have this much time, and then we're giving up and going to UConn and RU .

I think there's division in the ACC ranks on the next steps. There's the Texas/Texas Tech faction, WVU/Lousiville faction, and NYC (UConn/Rutgers) faction (a majority). The first two options could come off the table this week creating consensus on the NYC add.

The ACC was destined to be the 4th best FB conference, by a wide margin behind the other 3, It was a brilliant move -- it really was..

Brilliant? Given the ACC's bound up contractual situation, entertaining offers when 10 schools inquired is a piece of luck. Thank Texas! Of course, in business, good luck is often mistaken for genius. I'd rather be lucky than brilliant!

Is ESPN behind this. I am reluctant to accuse them of serious antitrust violations, and possibly breaching contrctual duties of good faith an fair dealing,

They don't have to take an active role. Merger and acquisition guys put together deals all the time to reduce contract costs by squeezing out weaker hands and consolidating. Telling the ACC there's no negotiations without new members and telling Texas their contract is in for a severe haircut with the loss of the 2 Oklahoma teams is enough to put the money changers and media consultants in gear. 5 mega contracts will become 3 mega contracts for the price of 4.

ESPN is in the role of an investment banker. Sometimes they initiate deals. More often they weed through proposals.

5. Is this Providence's fault? No. You can't make members stay. Do you want Providence empowered to make us stay?.

I wrote before that the ACC or Big-12 could lead a merger and the BE can't due to the office commitment to all members not just select football members. That hasn't changed. In business, contraction and disinvestiture spin offs happen to allow a company to get rid of dead weight or less desirable assets and put the executuve staff in a position to make future acquisitions. The BE didn't have a contraction or disinvestiture plan to do this.

 

[jpm25]

When the story broke about a week ago that UT (preferrably with UConn, Cuse and Pitt) was looking into joining the ACC (with the LHN remaining fully in UT's control) there were rumors that ESPN was willing to up the ACC's television contract, solely to protect their investment in the LHN.

I am fully convinved that ESPN is pulling many strings here but I also believe they are intelligent enough to keep themselves far enough out of the actual conversations that they are safe from anything other than allegations. UT's decision still being up in the air is why I am not yet ready to believe that the eventual home for UConn athletics has already been decided.

I think that UT has a lot less flexibility then one would logically think. If you are a conference commissioner and you just saw what the LHN did to the Big 12, would you risk your job, your conference on "reeling in" a big fish in UT that geographically, culturally and competitively doesn't make a lot of sense? Sure, commissioners want $$ for the conference and UT presumably brings that, but there is no way Swofford (in this case) bows down to the LHN to try to fit what is still a square peg into a round hole. By adding SU and Pitt, it partially brings BCU off the island that he created for them. Augmenting that with, for example, RU and UConn would be a much better fit.

If UT has to abandon, or at least modify, the LHN to fit into an exisiting conference they are much better off teaming up with OU, OK State, and Texas Tech with a modified regional Texas network. How much value does the best ACC team have on the LHN?

 

[upstater]

1. Miami was calling the shots in '04, not the ACC office. It was Miami that wanted BC and Syracuse, which were the northeastern private schools.

2. Flanking moves is eaxactly right. Take UConn and RU first, the Big Ten immediately graps Syracuse and Pitt. Take Syracuse and Pitt first, and the Big Ten's options are much more limited.

I am not buying #2 for one big reason. I think the Big10 would have preferred Rutgers and UConn over Syracuse and Pitt. The B10 network is prime tier in Western Pa. Syracuse is upstate and its value (in my eyes) is questionable, especially in a largely state-school conference.

The only thing that makes #2 a possibility is that the ACC thought it was outflanking the Big10 because Swofford considers himself a genius. But it's just as likely he outsmarted himself should the Big10 move east.

 

[jpm25]

I am not buying #2 for one big reason. I think the Big10 would have preferred Rutgers and UConn over Syracuse and Pitt. The B10 network is prime tier in Western Pa. Syracuse is upstate and its value (in my eyes) is questionable, especially in a largely state-school conference.

The only thing that makes #2 a possibility is that the ACC thought it was outflanking the Big10 because Swofford considers himself a genius. But it's just as likely he outsmarted himself should the Big10 move east.

how could he have outsmarted himself if he had the opportunity to add four at once? It is clear he didn't.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Using your position as a fiduciary to act in a way that benefits yourself at the expense of your principals is a criminal act. There are quite a few former insurance brokers and investment bankers that ran afoul of Eliot Spitzer that learned this the hard way.

 

[upstater]

how could he have outsmarted himself if he had the opportunity to add four at once? It is clear he didn't.

Your question can be read in a number of ways. You could be saying that he outflanked the Big10, or you could be saying that he didn't have the opportunity to add all four at once. If you're saying the latter, I tend to doubt it but you may be right. If you're saying the former, there's no way to know until this all shakes out.

After all, if he's holding out for Texas and ND, who can say if it's worth the gamble? Maybe they didn't want UConn and Rutgers? Don't know. But the ACC, in my opinion, continually makes decisions that force you to scratch your head. Don't get me wrong, I think Pitt is a huge coup for them. Pitt really is solid (as much as I personally despise that school above all others in the BE). But I don't think the Big10 sees the world the same way that the ACC does. I also find it incredibly hard to believe that UConn was given an offer and refused it initially.

 

[SO#1]

ACC has only one move left but the B1G has two moves and the prize is ND. No matter what the Big East must die.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

BC wasn't a good invite as an outlier, separated by 350 miles from their nearest conference mate, but I think SU makes sense concurrent with the Pitt addition and logically RU and Uconn next. Pitt and SU are flanking moves, cutting off the B10 and then cementing the northeast with Uconn and Rutgers. If the additions were reversed, the ACC risked B10 jumping on Pitt and the ACC plans fall apart. Now, instead of BC and SU being northeast stepchildren in a southern conference, they become part of a true east coast conference, geographically congruent (I still think that is important) and with natural rivalries.

I think Swofford already knows that Texas, TTU, Oklahoma, and Okie State are going to the Pac 12, and that is why he moved now.

He took the two Big East programs that Notre Dame cares most about. When ND passes, he goes to UConn and Rutgers.

 

[Stinger92860]

I think Swofford already knows that Texas, TTU, Oklahoma, and Okie State are going to the Pac 12, and that is why he moved now.

He took the two Big East programs that Notre Dame cares most about. When ND passes, he goes to UConn and Rutgers.

I think ND cares more about Michigan, Mich St, USC and Navy in that order. Plus that one Northeast Game.

 

[TRest]

I think Swofford already knows that Texas, TTU, Oklahoma, and Okie State are going to the Pac 12, and that is why he moved now.

He took the two Big East programs that Notre Dame cares most about. When ND passes, he goes to UConn and Rutgers.

That's how BC got in last time, take a run at ND and then move to Plan B. Except this time they may want 2 teams, I would hope we are ahead of RU for that spot.

 

[junglehusky]

Can someone advise as to how the BCS is an exempt org? Isn't this whole scheme all about Big Green $$$$? There is not even any pretense anymore. To me the BCS is a giant C Corp masquerading as a non profit, just as Harvard and Yale have successfully done forever.

If the IRS decided to end that status, which they may in this environment, what happens?

Well, the Fiesta Bowl group was about as corrupt as a Waterbury politician, with their CEO making a lavish salary and unless I remember wrong they were also supposedly a non-profit group. And after they got caught they managed to hang on to their BCS bowl (instead of getting muscled out of the way by Jerry Jones, so maybe we can be thankful for that).

 

[Dann]

the acc and espn have to have been in talks. u know how that covo went? something like this.
e-you add nyc we add $
a-rutgers?
e-uconn/rutgers/cuse/pitt. thye fit everything u want great bball package, fball on par, good acd, etc
a-ok, how much$ now if we do this?
e-put the acct in msg asap for us and we will do it up and $20mil a year a team for that conf, right now!
a-done deal, this weekend is going to be fun!

 

[uc1974]

The ACC wants UConn above SU and Pitt. However, I believe that UConn would not abandon the BE without pressure or coercion. In order to pressure UConn, SU and Pitt are taken first. Sure the ACC would love TX and ND but this is unlikely to occur. TX would be the only school out of time zone with no traditional ACC opponents plus the weight of the Longhorn Network. ACC treats all of its schools equally else Duke can't support itself in FB and probably not WF either. ND has no ACC traditional opponents, I think it's in the Central Time Zone (?) and I can't imagine they want games against WF, Clemson and FSU on even a semi-regular basis. I think ACC is 70% likely, 20% for B10 and 10% for the dreaded hybrid with the B12 lefties. We'll see.

 

[jpm25]

The ACC wants UConn above SU and Pitt. However, I believe that UConn would not abandon the BE without pressure or coercion. In order to pressure UConn, SU and Pitt are taken first. Sure the ACC would love TX and ND but this is unlikely to occur. TX would be the only school out of time zone with no traditional ACC opponents plus the weight of the Longhorn Network. ACC treats all of its schools equally else Duke can't support itself in FB and probably not WF either. ND has no ACC traditional opponents, I think it's in the Central Time Zone (?) and I can't imagine they want games against WF, Clemson and FSU on even a semi-regular basis. I think ACC is 70% likely, 20% for B10 and 10% for the dreaded hybrid with the B12 lefties. We'll see.

Do you believe that because you are a UConn fan, or because you objectivley believe it?

South Bend is in the eastern time zone, and they have traditional rivalries with BCU and Pitt.

 

[uc1974]

I believe it objectively. I believe that Herbst is on top of the situation and has been for some time. You are, of course, correct about Pitt/BC and ND. I guess I was more focused on the schools ND would probably dislike playing. No conference would turn down ND. However, I don't think ND's eyes are in the Southeast and I can't believe ND wants to give up its Midwest roots, MSU, Michigan, NW, Purdue, USC/Stanford (West I know) and Navy (I know, East). We do not have idiots running the show in Storrs. Not now.

 

[jpm25]

I believe it objectively. I believe that Herbst is on top of the situation and has been for some time. You are, of course, correct about Pitt/BC and ND. I guess I was more focused on the schools ND would probably dislike playing. No conference would turn down ND. However, I don't think ND's eyes are in the Southeast and I can't believe ND wants to give up its Midwest roots, MSU, Michigan, NW, Purdue, USC/Stanford (West I know) and Navy (I know, East). We do not have idiots running the show in Storrs. Not now.

I agree with you. I think ND can use OC scheduling to keep USC, Stanford, Navy, BCU and Pitt games going, if not all on an annual basis, at least keep the first three that way. No conference would turn down ND, but if you are ND and picking your lot, I think you have to go B1G.

 

[Vowelguy]

I am not buying #2 for one big reason. I think the Big10 would have preferred Rutgers and UConn over Syracuse and Pitt. The B10 network is prime tier in Western Pa. Syracuse is upstate and its value (in my eyes) is questionable, especially in a largely state-school conference.

The only thing that makes #2 a possibility is that the ACC thought it was outflanking the Big10 because Swofford considers himself a genius. But it's just as likely he outsmarted himself should the Big10 move east.

I think you're both overlooking simpler reasons:

(1) After watering down BB in the last expansion, there was no way the ACC was going to do that again. I doubt RU was high on their list. Syr & Pitt make them much stronger, and the Big East weaker.

(2) One UConn obstacle: BC. I'm sure they were pushing much harder for Pitt & Syr.

(3) If you want to be more sinister, this comes closer to finishing the job they started nearly a decade ago. Replacing Rutgers in the BE is much easier -- there are lots of crappy BB schools with a FB team. There are far fewer good BB schools w/ FB. The BE's next step is far from clear.

 

[jpm25]

I just can't belive that BCU is an obstacle for UConn. They may hate us, but they need us. And to be honest, we kind of need them.

 

[tzznandrew]

Agreed, its just to petty and the key UConn adversaries are all gone.

Plus, what clout does BC even have? If the ACC wants the northeast, they must know that by now BC alone won't deliver it. Even adding Syracuse in by themselves won't be enough.

 

[upstater]

I think you're both overlooking simpler reasons:

(1) After watering down BB in the last expansion, there was no way the ACC was going to do that again. I doubt RU was high on their list. Syr & Pitt make them much stronger, and the Big East weaker.

(2) One UConn obstacle: BC. I'm sure they were pushing much harder for Pitt & Syr.

(3) If you want to be more sinister, this comes closer to finishing the job they started nearly a decade ago. Replacing Rutgers in the BE is much easier -- there are lots of crappy BB schools with a FB team. There are far fewer good BB schools w/ FB. The BE's next step is far from clear.

That may be. I was just kicking around the idea that there is some flanking going on. As I said in my original post, Pitt is the big prize--for the ACC.

 

[jpm25]

That may be. I was just kicking around the idea that there is some flanking going on. As I said in my original post, Pitt is the big prize--for the ACC.

Pitt cannot be the "big prize".

 

[SAMCRO]

(2) One UConn obstacle: BC. I'm sure they were pushing much harder for Pitt & Syr.

The ACC doesn't ask BC for their opinion, the ACC tells BC what their opinion is. If the bigs in the ACC want UConn then BC will get in line. Simple as that.

 

[Vowelguy]

I just can't belive that BCU is an obstacle for UConn. They may hate us, but they need us.

For what?

Things were a lot better for BC when UConn was an athletics backwater. I'm sure they'd love for that to happen again.