OT: The Masters

[XLCenterFan]

Those three won 8 of the last 20 masters and Spieth only played in 7 of them. Real fish...

Anyone who rostered or bet any of those three last year is a fish. For this year, Spieth has recovered, but Phil should be avoided. And there’s people out there who still would have bet on Tiger this year, with a broken leg.

Their prices to win are always absurd and lower than they should be. Only a fish takes Tiger or Spieth at 10-1 when you can get Webb Simpson at 60-1 or Sungjae Im at 70-1.

I apologize if calling people a fish came off as an insult to your handle.

 

[McLovin]

I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.

 

[jleves]

I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Well I guess you proved your first statement

 

[storrsroars]

Only pool I'm in is a Stableford scoring setup, 4 players picked from newcomers, past champs, US, Int'l. My roster is Zalatoris, DJ, Morikawa and Ancer. DJ was a last minute decision as I had Reed initially. And while it's early, DJ is disappointing.

 

[polycom]

I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.

to win? Yeah should absolutely not bet golf.

 

[XLCenterFan]

I like watching golf but have no idea how to bet it. It kind of feels like you need to handicap and bet it like horse racing, but I can’t create an exacta & trifecta box to supplement my win/place/show bets in golf.

So I bet on Mickelson +9000 to win.

Figured it was worth a shot.

Come on man. If you hate money that much I’ll just post my venmo and you can send me some.

 

[McLovin]

Serious question. What strategy do y'all use to bet golf? Say you had $100 to bet, how do you distribute it?

Do you unload it all on one or a couple of guys to win? Do you spread it around on to win bets and top X finish bets?

Obviously I don't have a strategy (other than probably losing money - but come on Phil, make me money!).

Unlike betting other sports where the options are either/or (win/lose, over/under, cover the spread), golf has tons of outcomes you can bet on.

I'd assume betting only "to win" bets wouldn't be a long term winning strategy due to the variance of a large field and 4 day events, but maybe I'm wrong about that?

Edit: for example, someone posted an article about 23 guys who could win The Masters. Thats obviously a large number of possibilities. If you placed only win bets on all of them, you'd lose money on any who win that have odds less than 24-1 and would also lose if a dark horse not on that list wins it and you only placed win bets. How do you use a list of guys you like to place bets?

 

[XLCenterFan]

Serious question. What strategy do y'all use to bet golf? Say you had $100 to bet, how do you distribute it?

Do you unload it all on one or a couple of guys to win? Do you spread it around on to win bets and top X finish bets?

Obviously I don't have a strategy (other than probably losing money - but come on Phil, make me money!).

Unlike betting other sports where the options are either/or (win/lose, over/under, cover the spread), golf has tons of outcomes you can bet on.

I'd assume betting only "to win" bets wouldn't be a long term winning strategy due to the variance of a large field and 4 day events, but maybe I'm wrong about that?

Depends if you’re betting every week or just select tourneys, like the majors. If you’re betting on players to win, and you’re betting $100 a week, you’re gonna get smoked.
If I had $100 to bet the Masters, I would take a few players to win the tourney at different price points. Take a guy at 10-1, a guy at 20-1, a guy at 50-1, and then maybe a bomb at 100-1. I would save a few bucks to fire in a bet on Sunday morning. Books make new lines after every round, and in case your pre-tourney bets are toast, you can have some action on Sunday still. Also, there are matchup bets. You could throw some of those in. Take one player to beat another, either for the whole tourney or in individual rounds. There’s lots of ways to gamble on golf.

This week I have $200 worth of bets up. I put $25 on 8 different golfers to win it. Hopefully 1/2 are in contention on Sunday. If not, I saved myself some money to bet a guy on Sunday morning to salvage the week.

 

[McLovin]

Depends if you’re betting every week or just select tourneys, like the majors. If you’re betting on players to win, and you’re betting $100 a week, you’re gonna get smoked.
If I had $100 to bet the Masters, I would take a few players to win the tourney at different price points. Take a guy at 10-1, a guy at 20-1, a guy at 50-1, and then maybe a bomb at 100-1. I would save a few bucks to fire in a bet on Sunday morning. Books make new lines after every round, and in case your pre-tourney bets are toast, you can have some action on Sunday still. Also, there are matchup bets. You could throw some of those in. Take one player to beat another, either for the whole tourney or in individual rounds. There’s lots of ways to gamble on golf.

This week I have $200 worth of bets up. I put $25 on 8 different golfers to win it. Hopefully 1/2 are in contention on Sunday. If not, I saved myself some money to bet a guy on Sunday morning to salvage the week.

So like $20 on 3 guys at different prices to win, maybe $20 on a fourth and have $20 left to "live" bet the event? Is the juice from betting Top 10 or Top 20 finishes not worth the squeeze?

Before The Masters, if I was going to bet it, I was thinking maybe more of something like this and would love to know your thoughts.

30% on the amount on 3 different guys to win (in the odds ranges you mentioned)
50% on top 10 finishes, my 3 "to win" bets and 2 other guys who would be potential dark horse winners
20% on top 20 finishes, probably on a couple of guys who would give a decent payout at the price (+300 or better)

BTW I didn't bet anywhere close to $100 (what I was using as a hypothetical above) on Phil to win. I didn't feel like putting in the research to place bets on the strategy I was outlining above, but woke us this morning and wanted a little action on a storyline that would be fun to see on Sunday if it were to happen haha.

 

[XLCenterFan]

So like $20 on 3 guys at different prices to win, maybe $20 on a fourth and have $20 left to "live" bet the event? Is the juice from betting Top 10 or Top 20 finishes not worth the squeeze?

Before The Masters, if I was going to bet it, I was thinking maybe more of something like this and would love to know your thoughts.

30% on the amount on 3 different guys to win (in the odds ranges you mentioned)
50% on top 10 finishes, my 3 "to win" bets and 2 other guys who would be potential dark horse winners
20% on top 20 finishes, probably on a couple of guys who would give a decent payout at the price (+300 or better)

BTW I didn't bet anywhere close to $100 (what I was using as a hypothetical above) on Phil to win. I didn't feel like putting in the research to place bets on the strategy I was outlining above, but woke us this morning and wanted a little action on a storyline that would be fun to see on Sunday if it were to happen haha.

Yes. What you suggested is also ideal. I like it. Keep in mind it’s really hard to pick winners in golf. Keep it for fun with money you don’t care about.

 

[jleves]

What part of STOP didn't you two understand?

 

[storrsroars]

DJ just killed me for the day.

 

[eebmg]

No star power at the top. Big dud.

 

[XLCenterFan]

No star power at the top. Big dud.

Be patient.

 

[XLCenterFan]

So like $20 on 3 guys at different prices to win, maybe $20 on a fourth and have $20 left to "live" bet the event? Is the juice from betting Top 10 or Top 20 finishes not worth the squeeze?

Before The Masters, if I was going to bet it, I was thinking maybe more of something like this and would love to know your thoughts.

30% on the amount on 3 different guys to win (in the odds ranges you mentioned)
50% on top 10 finishes, my 3 "to win" bets and 2 other guys who would be potential dark horse winners
20% on top 20 finishes, probably on a couple of guys who would give a decent payout at the price (+300 or better)

BTW I didn't bet anywhere close to $100 (what I was using as a hypothetical above) on Phil to win. I didn't feel like putting in the research to place bets on the strategy I was outlining above, but woke us this morning and wanted a little action on a storyline that would be fun to see on Sunday if it were to happen haha.

I might give your system a shot. Currently, I enter three $5 Draft King lineups every week, and I am in a yearlong $50 One and Done pool, and a yearlong $125 Draft King lineup pool. Additionally, I will occasionally bet tournament and round matchups, and the occasional to-win bet. For the Masters and any event I attend (the Travelers and the Norther Trust) I usually up my amounts. Maybe next year instead of the lineup pool and matchup bets I will experiment with the win/top 10/top 20 idea. However, as you alluded to, the prices for top 10/20 are usually really low. For example, if a golfer is 60-1 to win the tourney, sometimes their top 20 price will be like 4-1, and top 10 will be like 2-1. For favorites, like DJ this week - he went off at like 10-1 to win the tourney, but was -500 to top 20 (in other terms, risk 5 to win 1).

 

[eebmg]

Be patient.

Well Justin Rose just went on a big run. Might tie biggest 1st round lead in Master's history.

 

[jleves]

Well Justin Rose just went on a big run. Might tie biggest 1st round lead in Master's history.

Tied for biggest first round lead - last time was in the 1940s if I heard and remembered correctly.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Well Justin Rose just went on a big run. Might tie biggest 1st round lead in Master's history.

So ironic. He’s been terrible as of late.

 

[jleves]

Well Justin Rose just went on a big run. Might tie biggest 1st round lead in Master's history.

So ironic. He’s been terrible as of late.

and only @nycscooby mentioned him in the thread before teeing off. Nice call.

 

[LIuconn]

Finding fairways and having good angles have become important this week due to the firmness of the greens. Good to see it’s not mindless golf

 

[Greathusky]

I want to take one shot on the 12th hole before I die.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Man this is some harsh stuff. Pulling for Ancer now.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Man this is some harsh stuff. Pulling for Ancer now.

I hate golf and the high def slow mo replay after the fact.

I also hate golfers hovering over the ball for an eternity before they start their swing.

It also penalizes players who are in the lead or of high viewer interest as more of their shots have cameramen on them than the ham and eggers who fill out the field. High vis, invitationals like the Master's puts all of them under the microscope.

 

[storrsroars]

Man this is some harsh stuff. Pulling for Ancer now.

I was wondering why Ancer went from +3 points to 0 in my pool overnight. Such is life. Still think he makes the cut.

 

[NJHusky]

I want to take one shot on the 12th hole before I die.

I’d need a lot more than one