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The Bubble

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UconnPT2007 said:
You make a pretty interesting case. Texas would trump us with their superior SOS, being in what's considered the best conference this year, and also a head to to head victory over us on the road. CO State and TAMU and the others come close to being in a toss-up with us. While this should give me hope, it actually makes me angrier just thinking about where we'd be without the Houston loss and Yale/Texas buzzer beaters. Amazing to think that we still may have an at-large opportunity.
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The Houston loss is the real killer. Those other two suck, but Texas is RPI Top 50 and Yale is RPI Top 75. Winning all three would have been great, but just the Houston game would change things significantly. Say we beat Houston, and then win against Memphis and Temple. We go into the AAC tournament at 20-10 with an RPI of 37. That's a pretty solid resume right there.
 
It feels like our only real shot is winning the AAC with an outside shot if we run the table and lose the AAC championship. Just too many bad losses and not enough good wins.
 
^^Too many "bad" losses? We only have one based on rpi in Houston, Yale as fan yes but too many losses is the problem right with not enough quality wins though. I still give this team more of chance if they win out to the AAC final over smu last year because our ooc schedule is no where near as weak which is why they got snubbed.
 
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One thing worth noting is that Florida has a BPI of 29. I have no idea how that metric is considered in relation to RPI, if at all, but it could counter-act the negative spin that could be put on our Tulsa win (who has a BPI in the 70's).

Also, it looks like N.C. State's victory tonight nudged Cincinnati back into the top 50. By my count, that means we now have four top 50 wins, which is more than can be said for a lot of teams currently on the bubble. If we can manage to beat another couple top 50 teams, the committee will have to give us a long, hard look.
 
the bubble is loaded with weak resumes, hence we're our 2015 peers

amazingly, we can still make our own beds

I know one thing, I'm going to give one of the best efforts of my life next week (maybe we can resurrect that John Belushi video from Animal House)
 
Updates from yesterday:

Rhode Island @ Dayton. Dayton won, and they are inching towards RPI Top 25. We really want that.
Texas A&M @ Florida. Florida won. How A&M can be a tournament team (Lunardi has them a 10) when they only have two RPI Top 75 wins (LSU 47 x2) is crazy.
West Virginia @ Kansas. Kansas won. No surprise, and not that big a deal.

Other games affecting the bubble:

Iowa @ Indiana. Big loss for Indiana. They have some good wins, but they are cratering right now.
NC State @ Clemson. NC State won. Not what we'd want, but a side-effect is that Cincy (who beat them) is now RPI Top 50.
Ole Miss @ Alabama. Ole Miss won. No surprise. Doesn't help, but probably doesn't hurt much either.
Kentucky @ Georgia. Kentucky won. Georgia is another team with an insanely sketchy win. 3 Top 70 wins, with 2 coming against Ole Miss (42) and 1 against A&M (48).
 
Games affecting our RPI:

Duke @ Wake Forest
South Florida vs. UCF
Sacred Heart @ Bryant

Games affecting the bubble tonight:

TCU @ Oklahoma State. We want TCU to win this. Oklahoma State has an RPI of 47, and has lost its last 4. This home loss will hurt bad.
Providence @ Seton Hall. Seton Hall would be pushed to an RPI in the 80s.
Miss St. @ Vandy.
USC @ UCLA. We need USC to win. UCLA is 51st in RPI. Also root for Hartford native Kahlil Dukes (put up 18 vs. ASU last week).
Miami @ Pittsburgh. Miami is 70th in RPI. Can't have them get a Top 50 RPI win.
Richmond @ UMass. Both are in Top 100 - Richmond is ahead of us at 65, UMass at 62.
Boise State @ San Jose State. A loss would annihilate Boise's Top 30 RPI.
Tennessee @ LSU. A loss would drop LSU from a Top 50 RPI.
 
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It's worth keeping in mind too that the committee doesn't always go where the Lunardis of the world say it will. I don't think anyone had NC State in the field last year, except for the committee. But if we want to be in that mix we really need to keep winning
 
Today's games:

UCF @ South Florida: we played USF twice, so them winning this game would help. But only marginally.
Houston @ Tulane: Same principle as above.
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Northeast Conference Tournament. Go Bulldogs.
Wake Forest @ Duke: Technically, Duke winning helps our RPI. But it is Duke. We win either way.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU is more bubbly than you would think (1 RPI Top 50 win, 211 Non-conference SOS).
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU is a bubble team and UT is nowhere near the bubble.
Miami @ Pitt: This is a loser leaves town sort of match. Both are bottom of the bubble teams, and the win won't help the winner too much.
Purdue @ Michigan State: We want Purdue to fall further from the bubble. Hurts them, and hurts all the bubble teams they've beaten.
TCU @ Oklahoma State: Unlikely, but OSU has been falling fast (4 losses in a row). Let's hope they keep it up with a devastating home loss.
Cincy @ Tulsa: If Cincy loses out, we can get the 3 seed. If Tulsa wins out, they get the 1 seed, so I guess we want them to win this and then lose to SMU (provided Cincy loses out...then we pull for Tulsa)
USC @ UCLA: Unlikely, but go Trojans!
Colorado State @ Nevada: Nevada is not good this year (RPI 301), so this is a no-win situation for CSU. Hopefully for us, but unlikely, CSU gets a bad road loss.
Boise State @ San José State: Again unlikely...San José State hasn't won a game against a DI school. Beating Boise would essentially eliminate BSU from the bubble.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon State is bad, but they may be able to take out the Ducks.

Thought on Memphis. We want them to stay Top 100. I ran a scenario where they lost their last two games, beat USF in the 6-11 game, and then lost to Cincy (likely 3 seed). They were 98. Winning that 6-11 game against USF or Houston will be big. And the whole conference needs them to so that we all get those bonuses for RPI Top 100 wins and losses.
 
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tzznandrew said:
Today's games:

UCF @ South Florida: we played USF twice, so them winning this game would help. But only marginally.
Houston @ Tulane: Same principle as above.
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Northeast Conference Tournament. Go Bulldogs.
Wake Forest @ Duke: Technically, Duke winning helps our RPI. But it is Duke. We win either way.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU is more bubbly than you would think (1 RPI Top 50 win, 211 Non-conference SOS).
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU is a bubble team and UT is nowhere near the bubble.
Miami @ Pitt: This is a loser leaves town sort of match. Both are bottom of the bubble teams, and the win won't help the winner too much.
Purdue @ Michigan State: We want Purdue to fall further from the bubble. Hurts them, and hurts all the bubble teams they've beaten.
TCU @ Oklahoma State: Unlikely, but OSU has been falling fast (4 losses in a row). Let's hope they keep it up with a devastating home loss.
Cincy @ Tulsa: If Cincy loses out, we can get the 3 seed. If Tulsa wins out, they get the 1 seed, so I guess we want them to win this and then lose to SMU (provided Cincy loses out...then we pull for Tulsa)
USC @ UCLA: Unlikely, but go Trojans!
Colorado State @ Nevada: Nevada is not good this year (RPI 301), so this is a no-win situation for CSU. Hopefully for us, but unlikely, CSU gets a bad road loss.
Boise State @ San José State: Again unlikely...San José State hasn't won a game against a DI school. Beating Boise would essentially eliminate BSU from the bubble.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon State is bad, but they may be able to take out the Ducks.

Thought on Memphis. We want them to stay Top 100. I ran a scenario where they lost their last two games, beat USF in the 6-11 game, and then lost to Cincy (likely 3 seed). They were 98. Winning that 6-11 game against USF or Houston will be big. And the whole conference needs them to so that we all get those bonuses for RPI Top 100 wins and losses.
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As of 1030pm:

Helps us: USF wins, Bryant wins (required a desperation 3 to send it to OT), Duke wins, LSU loses, Pitt loses, Purdue loses

Doesn't help: Tulane loses to Houston
 
Now 4-7 v.s. Top 50 RPI as Cincy won last night to go back into Top 50 RPI. Problem is none are on the road.
 
Update

RPI Games

UCF @ South Florida: USF won big.
Houston @ Tulane: Houston beat Tulane...
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Bulldogs win in 2OT
Wake Forest @ Duke: Duke won.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU won
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU got beat, knocking them out of the RPI Top 50. A&M now has 0 Top 50 wins.
Miami @ Pitt: Miami wins, pretty much eliminating Pitt.
Purdue @ Michigan State: Michigan State wins
TCU @ Oklahoma State: No suprise, OK State took care of business.
Cincy @ Tulsa: Cincy took out Tulsa. Can't get the 3 seed now.
USC @ UCLA: UCLA won.
Colorado State @ Nevada: Colorado State won... but this didn't really help CSU
Boise State @ San José State: Boise won...but again, SJ State is terrible, no help.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon won a tight one.
 
Our Updated Resume
Record: 17-11
RPI: 70 (+1)
KenPom: 56 (=)
SOS: 69 (-5)
NC SOS: 77 (-11)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3 (=)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (was 3-6)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 7-8

Tulsa...their loss to Cincy dropped them to RPI 47. We want them to stay Top 50. I ran RPIForecast. If they lose to SMU, then beat ECU, then lose in the American semis to Cincy, they supposedly will end at 41. If they lose that game to ECU...52. If, instead of ECU, it's Tulane...and they lose. 47. Supposedly. So, I guess we want Tulane to take the 7 seed so that Tulsa stays RPI Top 50.

Tonight's RPI Games:

Delaware State @ Coppin State: Coppin State win would help.
Stanford @ Arizona State: A Stanford win would help our RPI. An Stanford loss would push them further back in the bubble. Go Devils.

Bubble Games
Memphis @ UConn: Duh. Win or we officially officially need the American Tournament
Temple @ ECU: Temple is a fellow bubble team, but we need them to stay Top 50 RPI for a number of reasons
Marshall @ Old Dominion: ODU doesn't have a particularly compelling case for the tournament, so far as I can tell (1 Top 50 win). Losing to RPI 296 would finish them
VCU @ Davidson: losing to VCU would not finish Davidson, but I think you should need more than 1 Top 50 win to make the dance. Let's hope they don't get it here.
 
Dauster addressed TX A&M in his bubble banter, their resume is weak as hell

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...assive-night-for-teams-sitting-on-the-bubble/

  • Texas A&M: Someone is going to have to explain to me why Texas A&M is in most bracket projections, because I just don’t get it. The Aggies don’t have any bad losses on their resume — they lost at Alabama and Florida and dropped a game against Kansas State on a neutral court — so let’s just get that out of the way now. They do have a 6-9 record against the top 100, but that number is deceiving because only two of those wins came against the top 75. And, curiously enough, both of those top 75 wins were against an LSU team that is anything but a lock to make the tournament after losing to Tennessee at home tonight. That loss will drop the Tigers back out of the top 50 — which is why A&M is a loser on a night where the didn’t play — meaning that A&M is now in these tournament projections solely because … they have not lost a single game to a “bad” team? That’s it. Because it’s a fact that they have not proven the ability to beat NCAA tournament-caliber teams. And that’s not a recipe that I think deserves an at-large bid.
 
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Exactly. A and M really bothers me. Take a look at our comparison. LSU has now fallen out of top 50 so that removes their two top 50 wins. Non-Conf SOS of 137 too. How are they in?
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Updated Bubble

(+ is a bad thing with rankings and bolded losses, good with bolded wins; - a good thing with rankings and bolded losses, bad with bolded wins)

BYU
Record: 21-8
RPI: 43 (+4)
KenPom: 26 (=)
SOS: 80 (+4)
NC SOS: 19 (+3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 4-5
v. RPI sub-150: 13-0 (was 12-0)
R/N: 9-5

Boise State
Record: 21-7
RPI: 40 (+10)
KenPom: 40 (+3)
SOS: 124 (+25)
NC SOS: 173 (-11)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-1
v. RPI Top 50: 3-3
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 13-1
R/N: 11-6

Colorado State
Record: 24-5
RPI: 28 (+2)
KenPom: 65 (-9)
SOS: 127 (+6)
NC SOS: 91 (-8)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 2-2
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 15-1
R/N: 10-4

Cincinnati
Record: 21-9
RPI: 36 (-15)
KenPom: 36 (-6)
SOS: 57 (-16)
NC SOS: 27 (-5)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-1
v. RPI Top 50: 6-4
v. RPI Top 100: 7-6
v. RPI sub-150: 12-2
R/N: 7-6

Davidson
Record: 20-6
RPI: 33 (-3)
KenPom: 33 (+1)
SOS: 128 (-3)
NC SOS: 236 (+2)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4 (-1)
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 8-5

Illinois
Record: 19-11
RPI: 58 (-1)
KenPom: 53 (-4)
SOS: 64 (+7)
NC SOS: 157 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-2
v. RPI Top 50: 3-6 (-1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 9-0
R/N: 5-9

Indiana
Record: 19-11
RPI: 52 (+10)
KenPom: 57 (+10)
SOS: 35 (+3)
NC SOS: 118 (+9)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-4 (-1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (-1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 8-10 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 4-8

LSU
Record: 21-9
RPI: 54 (+9)
KenPom: 44 (+16)
SOS: 96 (+4)
NC SOS: 162 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 4-4
v. RPI Top 100: 11-6 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 9-3 (+1, +1)
R/N: 8-5

Miami
Record: 19-11
RPI: 65 (-5)
KenPom: 62 (-4)
SOS: 61 (-5)
NC SOS: 192 (-3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 6-7 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 10-0 (-1)
R/N: 8-5 (+1)

NC State
Record: 18-12
RPI: 46 (-4)
KenPom: 42 (-1)
SOS: 6 (+1)
NC SOS: 26 (+1)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (-1, +2)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-10 (+2)
v. RPI sub-150: 5-1
R/N: 4-6

Old Dominion
Record: 22-6
RPI: 42 (-14)
KenPom: 66 (+4)
SOS: 137 (-2)
NC SOS: 45 (-3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-0
v. RPI Top 50: 2-0
v. RPI Top 100: 5-2
v. RPI sub-150: 15-3
R/N: 7-6

Oregon
Record: 22-8
RPI: 30 (-2)
KenPom: 47 (-2)
SOS: 66 (-4)
NC SOS: 149 (-7)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-5 (+1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-6
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 6-6

Pitt
Record: 18-12
RPI: 59 (+10)
KenPom: 76 (=)
SOS: 37 (-1)
NC SOS: 108 (-6)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6 (-1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-9 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 4-9

Purdue
Record: 19-11
RPI: 61 (+3)
KenPom: 49 (-1)
SOS: 67 (-13)
NC SOS: 210 (-18)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-5 (-2, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 8-9 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 6-8

Stanford
Record: 18-10
RPI: 56 (=)
KenPom: 39 (+1)
SOS: 65 (-3)
NC SOS: 90 (-5)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7 (+1 [Wofford!], +2)
v. RPI Top 100: 7-7
v. RPI sub-150: 7-1
R/N: 5-7

Temple
Record: 20-9
RPI: 41 (+1)
KenPom: 61 (-1)
SOS: 62 (-3)
NC SOS: 58 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-4
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7 (+1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-8 (-1)
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 7-7

Texas
Record: 18-12
RPI: 35 (-11)
KenPom: 22 (+1)
SOS: 9 (=)
NC SOS: 75 (-12)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-9 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 3-11 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 6-12 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 6-7

Texas A&M
Record: 20-9
RPI: 48 (+10)
KenPom: 42 (+3)
SOS: 89 (+3)
NC SOS: 142 (+9)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 0-6 (-2)
v. RPI Top 100: 7-8 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 12-0 (+2)
R/N: 7-7

Tulsa
Record: 21-7
RPI: 47 (+10)
KenPom: 74 (+9)
SOS: 109 (-22)
NC SOS: 129
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-6 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 9-4

UCLA
Record: 19-12
RPI: 50 (-2)
KenPom: 50 (-2)
SOS: 32 (-26)
NC SOS: 64 (-6)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-6
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 3-11

Xavier
Record: 18-12
RPI: 44 (+3)
KenPom: 27 (=)
SOS: 15 (+1)
NC SOS: 53 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-3 (-1, -1)
v. RPI Top 50: 5-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-8
v. RPI sub-150: 4-1
R/N: 5-9
 
I would say after Cincy's win against Tulsa they are off the bubble and in.
 
Candyman34 said:
I would say after Cincy's win against Tulsa they are off the bubble and in.
Expand ...
Probably. I'm just updating the list as it was. Maybe switch them off this weekend and add other schools that have fallen clearly, or climbed their way, onto the bubble.
 
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