The Bubble

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

RPI not ticket allocation appeared to be the essential part of the post...

 

[Karmacop]

RPI not ticket allocation appeared to be the essential part of the post...

The essential part of the post is that the rule doesn't mention whether it applies to BOTH regular season games AND conference tournament games. I was speculating that because the conference tournament games are a different breed (in part due to ticket allocation), that this quoted rule simply does not apply.

In addition to the St. John's example, last year the AAC tournament was held on Memphis's home floor, but ESPN designated their loss to UConn in the quarterfinals as a neutral game, not a home game:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/235/year/2014/memphis-tigers

 

[prankster]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

 

[Fishy]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

It says "postseason" right in the text of the rule.

 

[Karmacop]

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

Yes, you are right. I also did a bit of digging, and the official RPI from the NCAA listed that Memphis-UConn game in the AAC tournament as a home game for Memphis (I attached the Memphis page from the NCAA RPI profile, and the third UConn game is listed as a home game).

So the ESPN pages listing St. John's and Memphis tournament games as neutral games are just wrong.

 

[pepband99]

I think you're all making a mistake citing a bunch of RPI wannabe sites (including ESPN) as a source.

 

[prankster]

I originally made the same mistake. It's definitely a big enough swing (and a bad one), that I've rethought my stance here. I think the 1-in-4 shot is potentially legit.

I'm trying a mojo experiment here - a combination of Senor and what i think we need here. Note my new avatar, and...

I'm in!

 

[CTBasketball]

Regardless home/away I think we need to win the AAC Tournament. The committee will snub us again (most likely Tulsa and possibly Cincinnati or Temple).

 

[tzznandrew]

Regardless home/away I think we need to win the AAC Tournament. The committee will snub us again (most likely Tulsa and possibly Cincinnati or Temple).

It would be hard to snub us if we were given Neutral games. Our RPI would be Top 40, SOS would be 41 and our non-conference SOS will end up top 100, easy. SMU, in contrast, had an RPI of 52, and a sub-200 non-conference SOS.

BUT, since it seems these will be home games, we're only topping out at about RPI 48 if we lose the conference title game. That's not good enough.

Also, unless Tulsa beats SMU or gets to the conference title game, I'm relatively certain they're going to get screwed. Temple and Cincy are on better ground...barely. But if Temple loses to us twice to end the year (last game, first game of AAC), they may miss it as well.

I'll say this conference likely gets 3 bids.

 

[UconnPT2007]

It's still AAC title or bust. I love all the RPI data and various scenarios graciously compiled in this thread, but the fact remains the AAC is a weak conference and they aren't going to award an at-large to a Uconn team with all it's quality wins (minus Dayton) coming versus other conference opponents. If you look at our resume objectively, we've only beaten two likely tourney teams (SMU, Dayton), and have two wins against bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa). That's it. And that's why, even though we try to delude ourselves by diving into the RPI, or forecast a run to the AAC tourney final that includes beating Temple, Memphis, Temple again, and SMU, it still won't be enough. Is there perhaps a sliver of a chance if everything breaks the right way (current bubble teams all fall on their faces, no at-large bids are stolen in the conference tourneys, and Uconn wins out until the final).... still probably not. The bright side, and it can't be repeated enough, is that we control our own destiny and likely will have to win just 3 games in 3 days on our own floor against teams less talented than us (aside from SMU).

 

[mauconnfan]

Win the last 2 and win the next 2 and there's hope - there WILL be a discussion of UConn/March April if we make that happen, no doubt just how much is the question.

No matter with this team it's all about defensive effort for 40 and one at a time!

 

[tzznandrew]

It's still AAC title or bust. I love all the RPI data and various scenarios graciously compiled in this thread, but the fact remains the AAC is a weak conference and they aren't going to award an at-large to a Uconn team with all it's quality wins (minus Dayton) coming versus other conference opponents. If you look at our resume objectively, we've only beaten two likely tourney teams (SMU, Dayton), and have two wins against bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa). That's it. And that's why, even though we try to delude ourselves by diving into the RPI, or forecast a run to the AAC tourney final that includes beating Temple, Memphis, Temple again, and SMU, it still won't be enough. Is there perhaps a sliver of a chance if everything breaks the right way (current bubble teams all fall on their faces, no at-large bids are stolen in the conference tourneys, and Uconn wins out until the final).... still probably not. The bright side, and it can't be repeated enough, is that we control our own destiny and likely will have to win just 3 games in 3 days on our own floor against teams less talented than us (aside from SMU).

I don't totally think you're wrong...but...

What do they do about Colorado State? Are they in or out? Who have they beaten? Boise State and San Diego State. That's it for tourney teams.

What about Texas A&M? They're only wins are against LSU. They swept LSU, and those are literally their only Top 50 wins.

What about Texas? They have beaten Baylor and West Virginia, two tourney teams, and Iowa, who may or may not be in.

I could go on and on with bubble teams, or teams that are "in" (Georgia...they swept Ole Miss [fringe bubble] and beat A&M...bubble). They aren't impressive.

We're also parsing this making the assumption they lose in the conference finals. They don't get in unless they get at least there. But, I just picked 3 teams...and those teams have roughly the same problems that UConn has.

 

[CTBasketball]

I think what tzzandrew and myself are trying to say is that if UConn's wins its next four games (3 of those definitly in the RPI Top 100, and 2 in the Top 50), what is so different from our resume than other bubble teams.

We're not on the bubble yet, but if we win our next 4 we certainly have played our way into consideration.

 

[sammydabiz]

In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford.

Don't listen to a blowhard like Eamonn Brennan, he provides nothing but biased opinions

Stumbled upon an excellent article by USA Today, where they actually did some statistical analysis to back up their opinions, according to them, it's plausible for Uconn to don their dancing shoes.... Here's an excerpt:

"In a re-scrub of the teams under consideration, I’m left with this, UCONN is very much in the mix. Still work to do, but not needing an automatic bid to get there."

http://thebiglead.com/2015/03/03/nc...k-from-being-in-the-mix/#sthash.hfxY0bgr.uxfs


<<<already posted, apologies>>>

 

[UconnPT2007]

I don't totally think you're wrong...but...

What do they do about Colorado State? Are they in or out? Who have they beaten? Boise State and San Diego State. That's it for tourney teams.

What about Texas A&M? They're only wins are against LSU. They swept LSU, and those are literally their only Top 50 wins.

What about Texas? They have beaten Baylor and West Virginia, two tourney teams, and Iowa, who may or may not be in.

I could go on and on with bubble teams, or teams that are "in" (Georgia...they swept Ole Miss [fringe bubble] and beat A&M...bubble). They aren't impressive.

We're also parsing this making the assumption they lose in the conference finals. They don't get in unless they get at least there. But, I just picked 3 teams...and those teams have roughly the same problems that UConn has.

You make a pretty interesting case. Texas would trump us with their superior SOS, being in what's considered the best conference this year, and also a head to to head victory over us on the road. CO State and TAMU and the others come close to being in a toss-up with us. While this should give me hope, it actually makes me angrier just thinking about where we'd be without the Houston loss and Yale/Texas buzzer beaters. Amazing to think that we still may have an at-large opportunity.

 

[tzznandrew]

You make a pretty interesting case. Texas would trump us with their superior SOS, being in what's considered the best conference this year, and also a head to to head victory over us on the road. CO State and TAMU and the others come close to being in a toss-up with us. While this should give me hope, it actually makes me angrier just thinking about where we'd be without the Houston loss and Yale/Texas buzzer beaters. Amazing to think that we still may have an at-large opportunity.

The Houston loss is the real killer. Those other two suck, but Texas is RPI Top 50 and Yale is RPI Top 75. Winning all three would have been great, but just the Houston game would change things significantly. Say we beat Houston, and then win against Memphis and Temple. We go into the AAC tournament at 20-10 with an RPI of 37. That's a pretty solid resume right there.

 

[The Funster]

HI5TORY

 

[Jerry1714]

Dayton is getting close to a Top 25 RPI win, I think after their win tonight they move to 27.

 

[G0UCONN]

It feels like our only real shot is winning the AAC with an outside shot if we run the table and lose the AAC championship. Just too many bad losses and not enough good wins.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Florida beat Texas A&M who's currently in the tourney tonight

 

[4in16]

^^Too many "bad" losses? We only have one based on rpi in Houston, Yale as fan yes but too many losses is the problem right with not enough quality wins though. I still give this team more of chance if they win out to the AAC final over smu last year because our ooc schedule is no where near as weak which is why they got snubbed.

 

[champs99and04]

One thing worth noting is that Florida has a BPI of 29. I have no idea how that metric is considered in relation to RPI, if at all, but it could counter-act the negative spin that could be put on our Tulsa win (who has a BPI in the 70's).

Also, it looks like N.C. State's victory tonight nudged Cincinnati back into the top 50. By my count, that means we now have four top 50 wins, which is more than can be said for a lot of teams currently on the bubble. If we can manage to beat another couple top 50 teams, the committee will have to give us a long, hard look.

 

[willie99]

the bubble is loaded with weak resumes, hence we're our 2015 peers

amazingly, we can still make our own beds

I know one thing, I'm going to give one of the best efforts of my life next week (maybe we can resurrect that John Belushi video from Animal House)

 

[tzznandrew]

Updates from yesterday:

Rhode Island @ Dayton. Dayton won, and they are inching towards RPI Top 25. We really want that.
Texas A&M @ Florida. Florida won. How A&M can be a tournament team (Lunardi has them a 10) when they only have two RPI Top 75 wins (LSU 47 x2) is crazy.
West Virginia @ Kansas. Kansas won. No surprise, and not that big a deal.

Other games affecting the bubble:

Iowa @ Indiana. Big loss for Indiana. They have some good wins, but they are cratering right now.
NC State @ Clemson. NC State won. Not what we'd want, but a side-effect is that Cincy (who beat them) is now RPI Top 50.
Ole Miss @ Alabama. Ole Miss won. No surprise. Doesn't help, but probably doesn't hurt much either.
Kentucky @ Georgia. Kentucky won. Georgia is another team with an insanely sketchy win. 3 Top 70 wins, with 2 coming against Ole Miss (42) and 1 against A&M (48).

 

[CTBasketball]

If the SEC gets 5-6 teams that's a tragedy for the sport of college basketball.