The Bubble

[EricLA]

Well yes obviously, but I was talking about being more comfortable with our seed as far as staying out of a play in game if we won the AAC tournament.

I know. Was just giving you a hard time. It's been such a rough year full of seemingly more downs than ups. Was going for a little levity, if not brevity!

 

[SubbaBub]

If we lose to either Temple or Memphis, we need to win the AAC tournament.

If we beat Temple and Memphis and we lose in the conference tournament on Friday or Saturday, we have no reason to watch the selection show. We be going to the NIT.

If we beat Temple and Memphis and win Friday and Saturday only to lose on Sunday, you can watch the selection show through your fingers. I'd put our chances at one in four at best.

If we beat Temple and Memphis, or not, and win Friday, Saturday and Sunday, you can watch the selection show and then go to the message board of some five seed who's pissed that we're their first round opponent.

One more. If we win out the RPI could slot us as high as a 9 seed, then watch as we bounce UK in the round of 32. Or, Nova would be just as good.

 

[auror]

One more. If we win out the RPI could slot us as high as a 9 seed, then watch as we bounce UK in the round of 32. Or, Nova would be just as good.

Yeah RPI Wizard has our RPI after winning out (beating Temple, Tulsa, then SMU) at 33. That's probably the RPI-ideal gauntlet, though. Losing to SMU would put us at 46 and right on the bubble.

 

[pepband99]

FWIW ESPN seems resigned to our fate:

"
In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford. The only yes here is whether we think Kevin Ollie's team might do exactly that. If they play like they did against SMU, well, why not?
"

 

[Mots010]

If we beat Temple and Memphis and win Friday and Saturday only to lose on Sunday, you can watch the selection show through your fingers. I'd put our chances at one in four at best.

I think we all need to be prepared for a big kick to the nuts in any scenario that doesnt involve winning the AAC tournament.

 

[CTBasketball]

I think we all need to be prepared for a big kick to the nuts in any scenario that doesnt involve winning the AAC tournament.

I'm starting to think that. The bubble isn't really that bad this year. Not like last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

FWIW ESPN seems resigned to our fate

Yeah, I'm not entirely sure Bubble Watch is right...although finding out the tournament will be counted as home game changes things in the RPI. Running a scenario where we beat Memphis, Temple, Temple, SMU, and lose to Cincy when the tournament is "Home" ends the team at 21-12 and an RPI of 48 (SOS 41). Same thing "Neutral" gets the same record and SOS, but an RPI of 37.

Big difference...

Anyway, our RPI boosting games tonight:

Rhode Island @ Dayton. Rhode Island is a fringe tourney team, so we really want Dayton to hold serve.
Texas A&M @ Florida. A&M is a solid team that is currently in the tournament, but definitely could fall out.
West Virginia @ Kansas. This would be a nice win to help our RPI a bit, but it isn't particularly likely, and neither team is near the bubble.

Other games affecting the bubble:

Iowa @ Indiana. Iowa is clearly in right now, and Indiana isn't. So go Iowa.
NC State @ Clemson. It'd be nice for NC State to continue cratering.
Ole Miss @ Alabama. I didn't do Ole Miss in the longer break-down. They're pretty bubbly (RPI 47, 4 Top 50 wins), so go 'Bama
Kentucky @ Georgia. We'd all like Kentucky to lose...but Georgia's a bubble team (at least marginally). I'd say either way is fine.

 

[Inyatkin]

One more. If we win out the RPI could slot us as high as a 9 seed, then watch as we bounce UK in the round of 32. Or, Nova would be just as good.

Hmmmm. Yes, I'll take Villanova instead of Kentucky in this particular scenario.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@tzznandrew Appreciate the updates. I know we probably have to win the AAC, but it's cool seeing everything with its moving parts.

 

[tzznandrew]

@tzznandrew Appreciate the updates. I know we probably have to win the AAC, but it's cool seeing everything with its moving parts.

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

At this point, with the anti-AAC bias, we're getting no favors sent our way.

I normally am not the type to even make a claim like that, but after last year with SMU getting snubbed, our teams being underseeded and three being placed in the same region, what else can you think?

This year, they have Cincinnati, Temple and Tulsa as 11s and SMU as a 6? Cincinnati is in the play in game. That's ridiculous compared to some of the P5 resumes.

 

[Tenspro2002]

One more. If we win out the RPI could slot us as high as a 9 seed, then watch as we bounce UK in the round of 32.

The last time we talked about upsetting UK as a 9 seed, we no-showed in the first round and they went on to win the championship. Maybe we can keep that talk to a minimum?

 

[HuskyBballFan]

The last time we talked about upsetting UK as a 9 seed, we no-showed in the first round and they went on to win the championship. Maybe we can keep that talk to a minimum?

Not to mention there is no scenario, including winning our next 5 in a row, that gets us a 9 seed.

Winning our next 4 four gives us a shot at getting in the field. Winning that 5th one wouldn't bump us up another 3 seed lines.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not to mention there is no scenario, including winning our next 5 in a row, that gets us a 9 seed.

Winning our next 4 four gives us a shot at getting in the field. Winning that 5th one wouldn't bump us up another 3 seed lines.

It's more than you think, in that the RPI would go from 48 (loss) to 33 (win). RPI alone, that's 4 seed lines.

I don't think it will be as dramatic in reality, but I wouldn't be surprised if a 22-11 team with an RPI of 33, 8-7 v. Top 50 (assuming Cincy stays Top 50) and 10-10 v. Top 100 looks like a 9-seed to me.

 

[CTBasketball]

I just love calculations.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati (All AACT games count as home games): RPI=48, SOS=41.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati (All AACT games count as neutral game): RPI=37, SOS-41.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, lose to SMU. (All AACT games count as home games): RPI=54, SOS=46.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, lose to SMU. (All AACT games count as neutral games): RPI=47, SOS=46.

Win vs. Memphis. Lose to Temple. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati: RPI=63, SOS=41.

 

[pepband99]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

I originally made the same mistake. It's definitely a big enough swing (and a bad one), that I've rethought my stance here. I think the 1-in-4 shot is potentially legit.

I'm trying a mojo experiment here - a combination of Senor and what i think we need here. Note my new avatar, and...

Jake Taylor: [Jake stands up] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do.

Roger Dorn: What's that?

Jake Taylor: Win the whole #$%#$%#$%ing thing.

[long pause]

Willie Mays Hayes: [Willie stands up] Yeah.

Pedro Cerrano: [Pedro pounds his hand] YES!

 

[HomeKing93]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

Maybe this link will shed some light on this question - it looks like the NCAA literally made us an example in its "Statistics Policies and Guidelines" on page 9:

"Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites."

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/ForSIDs/Policies.pdf

 

[CTBasketball]

Maybe this link will shed some light on this question - it looks like the NCAA literally made us an example in its "Statistics Policies and Guidelines" on page 9:

"Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites."

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/ForSIDs/Policies.pdf

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

 

[lange10]

Lots of posts here so not sure if this has been posted yet but this is from ESPN and their bubble watch. This update is from this morning. Written by Eamonn Brennan:

Connecticut's home upset of SMU didn't just upset the conference title race with two games to play. It also showcased a more connected Huskies defense, and an offense with a sudden bevy of viable weapons, namely Daniel Hamilton and Rodney Purvis. Somewhere, Ryan Boatright is wondering what took them so long. In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford. The only yes here is whether we think Kevin Ollie's team might do exactly that. If they play like they did against SMU, well, why not?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

 

[tzznandrew]

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

Right. My thought is that, because the tickets will be distributed differently than a regular home game, perhaps the RPI will consider it Neutral.

St. John's is exactly the team I had in mind.

 

[pepband99]

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

How are you determining it was neutral?

 

[CTBasketball]

How are you determining it was neutral?

If you look at their schedule last year, ESPN recognized the Big East Tournament as a neutral site (LINK). Also RealTimeRPI recognized the Providence v. St. John's game last year as a neutral site. It said Providence vs. St. John's, not Providence @ St. John's.

Don't know though, I think its a neutral site.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Lots of posts here so not sure if this has been posted yet but this is from ESPN and their bubble watch. This update is from this morning. Written by Eamonn Brennan:

Connecticut's home upset of SMU didn't just upset the conference title race with two games to play. It also showcased a more connected Huskies defense, and an offense with a sudden bevy of viable weapons, namely Daniel Hamilton and Rodney Purvis. Somewhere, Ryan Boatright is wondering what took them so long. In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford. The only yes here is whether we think Kevin Ollie's team might do exactly that. If they play like they did against SMU, well, why not?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Our At-Large chances have improved believe it or not assuming we get beat in the AAC final and win out until then. It just depends on a ton of variables. If we beat Temple on the road after Memphis and the AAC tourney bracket breaks our way to the final things are no longer hopeless.

 

[Fishy]

It's supposed to be a home game - we're actually used as the example in the rule book....

Home/Away/Neutral Site Games

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

Team A is playing Team B. For results and the Rating Percentage Index (RPI), the game is considered a “home” game for Team A and an “away” game for Team B if the site of the contest:

• Is in the same area of Team A and Team A plays some or several “home” games there each season. Often times these games are included in the season ticket package offered by the school.
  
  Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites.
  

 

[Karmacop]

It's supposed to be a home game - we're actually used as the example in the rule book....

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.