The Bubble

[ConnHuskBask]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

At this point, with the anti-AAC bias, we're getting no favors sent our way.

I normally am not the type to even make a claim like that, but after last year with SMU getting snubbed, our teams being underseeded and three being placed in the same region, what else can you think?

This year, they have Cincinnati, Temple and Tulsa as 11s and SMU as a 6? Cincinnati is in the play in game. That's ridiculous compared to some of the P5 resumes.

 

[Tenspro2002]

One more. If we win out the RPI could slot us as high as a 9 seed, then watch as we bounce UK in the round of 32.

The last time we talked about upsetting UK as a 9 seed, we no-showed in the first round and they went on to win the championship. Maybe we can keep that talk to a minimum?

 

[HuskyBballFan]

The last time we talked about upsetting UK as a 9 seed, we no-showed in the first round and they went on to win the championship. Maybe we can keep that talk to a minimum?

Not to mention there is no scenario, including winning our next 5 in a row, that gets us a 9 seed.

Winning our next 4 four gives us a shot at getting in the field. Winning that 5th one wouldn't bump us up another 3 seed lines.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not to mention there is no scenario, including winning our next 5 in a row, that gets us a 9 seed.

Winning our next 4 four gives us a shot at getting in the field. Winning that 5th one wouldn't bump us up another 3 seed lines.

It's more than you think, in that the RPI would go from 48 (loss) to 33 (win). RPI alone, that's 4 seed lines.

I don't think it will be as dramatic in reality, but I wouldn't be surprised if a 22-11 team with an RPI of 33, 8-7 v. Top 50 (assuming Cincy stays Top 50) and 10-10 v. Top 100 looks like a 9-seed to me.

 

[CTBasketball]

I just love calculations.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati (All AACT games count as home games): RPI=48, SOS=41.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati (All AACT games count as neutral game): RPI=37, SOS-41.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, lose to SMU. (All AACT games count as home games): RPI=54, SOS=46.

Win out vs. Temple/Memphis. Beat Temple, lose to SMU. (All AACT games count as neutral games): RPI=47, SOS=46.

Win vs. Memphis. Lose to Temple. Beat Temple, SMU, lose to Cincinnati: RPI=63, SOS=41.

 

[pepband99]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

I originally made the same mistake. It's definitely a big enough swing (and a bad one), that I've rethought my stance here. I think the 1-in-4 shot is potentially legit.

I'm trying a mojo experiment here - a combination of Senor and what i think we need here. Note my new avatar, and...

Jake Taylor: [Jake stands up] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do.

Roger Dorn: What's that?

Jake Taylor: Win the whole #$%#$%#$%ing thing.

[long pause]

Willie Mays Hayes: [Willie stands up] Yeah.

Pedro Cerrano: [Pedro pounds his hand] YES!

 

[HomeKing93]

Thanks.

It's unlikely they get in without winning the AAC if the games don't count as neutral site games (I haven't found a link to confirm that, but it seems somewhat reasonable). If they are neutral games, I think they have a solid chance getting in if they lose in the finals.

Maybe this link will shed some light on this question - it looks like the NCAA literally made us an example in its "Statistics Policies and Guidelines" on page 9:

"Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites."

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/ForSIDs/Policies.pdf

 

[CTBasketball]

Maybe this link will shed some light on this question - it looks like the NCAA literally made us an example in its "Statistics Policies and Guidelines" on page 9:

"Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites."

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/ForSIDs/Policies.pdf

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

 

[lange10]

Lots of posts here so not sure if this has been posted yet but this is from ESPN and their bubble watch. This update is from this morning. Written by Eamonn Brennan:

Connecticut's home upset of SMU didn't just upset the conference title race with two games to play. It also showcased a more connected Huskies defense, and an offense with a sudden bevy of viable weapons, namely Daniel Hamilton and Rodney Purvis. Somewhere, Ryan Boatright is wondering what took them so long. In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford. The only yes here is whether we think Kevin Ollie's team might do exactly that. If they play like they did against SMU, well, why not?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

 

[tzznandrew]

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

Right. My thought is that, because the tickets will be distributed differently than a regular home game, perhaps the RPI will consider it Neutral.

St. John's is exactly the team I had in mind.

 

[pepband99]

I'm not sure. Last year St. John's was given a neutral site game for the Big East Tournament. Madison Square Garden is also their home court.

How are you determining it was neutral?

 

[CTBasketball]

How are you determining it was neutral?

If you look at their schedule last year, ESPN recognized the Big East Tournament as a neutral site (LINK). Also RealTimeRPI recognized the Providence v. St. John's game last year as a neutral site. It said Providence vs. St. John's, not Providence @ St. John's.

Don't know though, I think its a neutral site.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Lots of posts here so not sure if this has been posted yet but this is from ESPN and their bubble watch. This update is from this morning. Written by Eamonn Brennan:

Connecticut's home upset of SMU didn't just upset the conference title race with two games to play. It also showcased a more connected Huskies defense, and an offense with a sudden bevy of viable weapons, namely Daniel Hamilton and Rodney Purvis. Somewhere, Ryan Boatright is wondering what took them so long. In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford. The only yes here is whether we think Kevin Ollie's team might do exactly that. If they play like they did against SMU, well, why not?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Our At-Large chances have improved believe it or not assuming we get beat in the AAC final and win out until then. It just depends on a ton of variables. If we beat Temple on the road after Memphis and the AAC tourney bracket breaks our way to the final things are no longer hopeless.

 

[Fishy]

It's supposed to be a home game - we're actually used as the example in the rule book....

Home/Away/Neutral Site Games

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

Team A is playing Team B. For results and the Rating Percentage Index (RPI), the game is considered a “home” game for Team A and an “away” game for Team B if the site of the contest:

• Is in the same area of Team A and Team A plays some or several “home” games there each season. Often times these games are included in the season ticket package offered by the school.
  
  Example: The Connecticut men’s basketball team plays some of its home games in its hometown of Storrs; however, the Huskies play most of their games in nearby Hartford. Both sites are considered home sites.
  

 

[Karmacop]

It's supposed to be a home game - we're actually used as the example in the rule book....

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

RPI not ticket allocation appeared to be the essential part of the post...

 

[Karmacop]

RPI not ticket allocation appeared to be the essential part of the post...

The essential part of the post is that the rule doesn't mention whether it applies to BOTH regular season games AND conference tournament games. I was speculating that because the conference tournament games are a different breed (in part due to ticket allocation), that this quoted rule simply does not apply.

In addition to the St. John's example, last year the AAC tournament was held on Memphis's home floor, but ESPN designated their loss to UConn in the quarterfinals as a neutral game, not a home game:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/235/year/2014/memphis-tigers

 

[prankster]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

 

[Fishy]

I think the distinction might be regular season vs. conference tournament. For the latter, aren't the tickets allocated more evenly so it's less of a "home" game? The rules you cite don't make it clear that they also apply to conference tournaments. Given how the BET game for St. John's was listed as a neutral site, I'm thinking this rule might only apply to regular season games.

It says "postseason" right in the text of the rule.

 

[Karmacop]

The following guidelines and examples are for regular-season and postseason contests

Yes, you are right. I also did a bit of digging, and the official RPI from the NCAA listed that Memphis-UConn game in the AAC tournament as a home game for Memphis (I attached the Memphis page from the NCAA RPI profile, and the third UConn game is listed as a home game).

So the ESPN pages listing St. John's and Memphis tournament games as neutral games are just wrong.

 

[pepband99]

I think you're all making a mistake citing a bunch of RPI wannabe sites (including ESPN) as a source.

 

[prankster]

I originally made the same mistake. It's definitely a big enough swing (and a bad one), that I've rethought my stance here. I think the 1-in-4 shot is potentially legit.

I'm trying a mojo experiment here - a combination of Senor and what i think we need here. Note my new avatar, and...

I'm in!

 

[CTBasketball]

Regardless home/away I think we need to win the AAC Tournament. The committee will snub us again (most likely Tulsa and possibly Cincinnati or Temple).

 

[tzznandrew]

Regardless home/away I think we need to win the AAC Tournament. The committee will snub us again (most likely Tulsa and possibly Cincinnati or Temple).

It would be hard to snub us if we were given Neutral games. Our RPI would be Top 40, SOS would be 41 and our non-conference SOS will end up top 100, easy. SMU, in contrast, had an RPI of 52, and a sub-200 non-conference SOS.

BUT, since it seems these will be home games, we're only topping out at about RPI 48 if we lose the conference title game. That's not good enough.

Also, unless Tulsa beats SMU or gets to the conference title game, I'm relatively certain they're going to get screwed. Temple and Cincy are on better ground...barely. But if Temple loses to us twice to end the year (last game, first game of AAC), they may miss it as well.

I'll say this conference likely gets 3 bids.

 

[UconnPT2007]

It's still AAC title or bust. I love all the RPI data and various scenarios graciously compiled in this thread, but the fact remains the AAC is a weak conference and they aren't going to award an at-large to a Uconn team with all it's quality wins (minus Dayton) coming versus other conference opponents. If you look at our resume objectively, we've only beaten two likely tourney teams (SMU, Dayton), and have two wins against bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa). That's it. And that's why, even though we try to delude ourselves by diving into the RPI, or forecast a run to the AAC tourney final that includes beating Temple, Memphis, Temple again, and SMU, it still won't be enough. Is there perhaps a sliver of a chance if everything breaks the right way (current bubble teams all fall on their faces, no at-large bids are stolen in the conference tourneys, and Uconn wins out until the final).... still probably not. The bright side, and it can't be repeated enough, is that we control our own destiny and likely will have to win just 3 games in 3 days on our own floor against teams less talented than us (aside from SMU).

 

[mauconnfan]

Win the last 2 and win the next 2 and there's hope - there WILL be a discussion of UConn/March April if we make that happen, no doubt just how much is the question.

No matter with this team it's all about defensive effort for 40 and one at a time!

 

[tzznandrew]

It's still AAC title or bust. I love all the RPI data and various scenarios graciously compiled in this thread, but the fact remains the AAC is a weak conference and they aren't going to award an at-large to a Uconn team with all it's quality wins (minus Dayton) coming versus other conference opponents. If you look at our resume objectively, we've only beaten two likely tourney teams (SMU, Dayton), and have two wins against bubble teams (Cincy, Tulsa). That's it. And that's why, even though we try to delude ourselves by diving into the RPI, or forecast a run to the AAC tourney final that includes beating Temple, Memphis, Temple again, and SMU, it still won't be enough. Is there perhaps a sliver of a chance if everything breaks the right way (current bubble teams all fall on their faces, no at-large bids are stolen in the conference tourneys, and Uconn wins out until the final).... still probably not. The bright side, and it can't be repeated enough, is that we control our own destiny and likely will have to win just 3 games in 3 days on our own floor against teams less talented than us (aside from SMU).

I don't totally think you're wrong...but...

What do they do about Colorado State? Are they in or out? Who have they beaten? Boise State and San Diego State. That's it for tourney teams.

What about Texas A&M? They're only wins are against LSU. They swept LSU, and those are literally their only Top 50 wins.

What about Texas? They have beaten Baylor and West Virginia, two tourney teams, and Iowa, who may or may not be in.

I could go on and on with bubble teams, or teams that are "in" (Georgia...they swept Ole Miss [fringe bubble] and beat A&M...bubble). They aren't impressive.

We're also parsing this making the assumption they lose in the conference finals. They don't get in unless they get at least there. But, I just picked 3 teams...and those teams have roughly the same problems that UConn has.

 

[CTBasketball]

I think what tzzandrew and myself are trying to say is that if UConn's wins its next four games (3 of those definitly in the RPI Top 100, and 2 in the Top 50), what is so different from our resume than other bubble teams.

We're not on the bubble yet, but if we win our next 4 we certainly have played our way into consideration.

 

[sammydabiz]

In any case, sorry, UConn fans. We empathize with your eager Twitter questions, but we're sorry to say that the response is almost always no. No, UConn's not in the tournament. No, UConn's not even on the bubble. No, UConn can't get in without winning next week's conference tournament at the XL Center in Hartford.

Don't listen to a blowhard like Eamonn Brennan, he provides nothing but biased opinions

Stumbled upon an excellent article by USA Today, where they actually did some statistical analysis to back up their opinions, according to them, it's plausible for Uconn to don their dancing shoes.... Here's an excerpt:

"In a re-scrub of the teams under consideration, I’m left with this, UCONN is very much in the mix. Still work to do, but not needing an automatic bid to get there."

http://thebiglead.com/2015/03/03/nc...k-from-being-in-the-mix/#sthash.hfxY0bgr.uxfs


<<<already posted, apologies>>>

 

[UconnPT2007]

I don't totally think you're wrong...but...

What do they do about Colorado State? Are they in or out? Who have they beaten? Boise State and San Diego State. That's it for tourney teams.

What about Texas A&M? They're only wins are against LSU. They swept LSU, and those are literally their only Top 50 wins.

What about Texas? They have beaten Baylor and West Virginia, two tourney teams, and Iowa, who may or may not be in.

I could go on and on with bubble teams, or teams that are "in" (Georgia...they swept Ole Miss [fringe bubble] and beat A&M...bubble). They aren't impressive.

We're also parsing this making the assumption they lose in the conference finals. They don't get in unless they get at least there. But, I just picked 3 teams...and those teams have roughly the same problems that UConn has.

You make a pretty interesting case. Texas would trump us with their superior SOS, being in what's considered the best conference this year, and also a head to to head victory over us on the road. CO State and TAMU and the others come close to being in a toss-up with us. While this should give me hope, it actually makes me angrier just thinking about where we'd be without the Houston loss and Yale/Texas buzzer beaters. Amazing to think that we still may have an at-large opportunity.