The Bubble

[CTBasketball]

Games affecting our RPI:

Duke @ Wake Forest
South Florida vs. UCF
Sacred Heart @ Bryant

Games affecting the bubble tonight:

TCU @ Oklahoma State. We want TCU to win this. Oklahoma State has an RPI of 47, and has lost its last 4. This home loss will hurt bad.
Providence @ Seton Hall. Seton Hall would be pushed to an RPI in the 80s.
Miss St. @ Vandy.
USC @ UCLA. We need USC to win. UCLA is 51st in RPI. Also root for Hartford native Kahlil Dukes (put up 18 vs. ASU last week).
Miami @ Pittsburgh. Miami is 70th in RPI. Can't have them get a Top 50 RPI win.
Richmond @ UMass. Both are in Top 100 - Richmond is ahead of us at 65, UMass at 62.
Boise State @ San Jose State. A loss would annihilate Boise's Top 30 RPI.
Tennessee @ LSU. A loss would drop LSU from a Top 50 RPI.

 

[Jerry1714]

How the Huskies Can Boost
Their RPI Today

South Florida needs to beat UCF

Bryant University needs to beat Sacred Heart

Duke needs to beat Wake Forest

Tulane needs to beat Houston

 

[Inyatkin]

It's worth keeping in mind too that the committee doesn't always go where the Lunardis of the world say it will. I don't think anyone had NC State in the field last year, except for the committee. But if we want to be in that mix we really need to keep winning

 

[tzznandrew]

Today's games:

UCF @ South Florida: we played USF twice, so them winning this game would help. But only marginally.
Houston @ Tulane: Same principle as above.
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Northeast Conference Tournament. Go Bulldogs.
Wake Forest @ Duke: Technically, Duke winning helps our RPI. But it is Duke. We win either way.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU is more bubbly than you would think (1 RPI Top 50 win, 211 Non-conference SOS).
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU is a bubble team and UT is nowhere near the bubble.
Miami @ Pitt: This is a loser leaves town sort of match. Both are bottom of the bubble teams, and the win won't help the winner too much.
Purdue @ Michigan State: We want Purdue to fall further from the bubble. Hurts them, and hurts all the bubble teams they've beaten.
TCU @ Oklahoma State: Unlikely, but OSU has been falling fast (4 losses in a row). Let's hope they keep it up with a devastating home loss.
Cincy @ Tulsa: If Cincy loses out, we can get the 3 seed. If Tulsa wins out, they get the 1 seed, so I guess we want them to win this and then lose to SMU (provided Cincy loses out...then we pull for Tulsa)
USC @ UCLA: Unlikely, but go Trojans!
Colorado State @ Nevada: Nevada is not good this year (RPI 301), so this is a no-win situation for CSU. Hopefully for us, but unlikely, CSU gets a bad road loss.
Boise State @ San José State: Again unlikely...San José State hasn't won a game against a DI school. Beating Boise would essentially eliminate BSU from the bubble.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon State is bad, but they may be able to take out the Ducks.

Thought on Memphis. We want them to stay Top 100. I ran a scenario where they lost their last two games, beat USF in the 6-11 game, and then lost to Cincy (likely 3 seed). They were 98. Winning that 6-11 game against USF or Houston will be big. And the whole conference needs them to so that we all get those bonuses for RPI Top 100 wins and losses.

 

[CTBasketball]

Wow we just kind of ganged up on the bubble right there....

 

[tzznandrew]

Games affecting our RPI:

How the Huskies Can Boost
Their RPI Today

Dammit! You guys beat me too it. I had to leave the computer to have a chat with a coworker, and I hadn't seen what was posted.

 

[CTBasketball]

Dammit! You guys beat me too it. I had to leave the computer to have a chat with a coworker, and I hadn't seen what was posted.

Bubble first, work second!

 

[Husky15]

Big loss for LSU to Tennessee. Their loss also hurts Texas A&M who's only top 75 wins are against them.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Big loss for LSU to Tennessee. Their loss also hurts Texas A&M who's only top 75 wins are against them.

We have 2x as many top 50 RPI wins as A&M

 

[UconnPT2007]

Today's games:

UCF @ South Florida: we played USF twice, so them winning this game would help. But only marginally.
Houston @ Tulane: Same principle as above.
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Northeast Conference Tournament. Go Bulldogs.
Wake Forest @ Duke: Technically, Duke winning helps our RPI. But it is Duke. We win either way.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU is more bubbly than you would think (1 RPI Top 50 win, 211 Non-conference SOS).
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU is a bubble team and UT is nowhere near the bubble.
Miami @ Pitt: This is a loser leaves town sort of match. Both are bottom of the bubble teams, and the win won't help the winner too much.
Purdue @ Michigan State: We want Purdue to fall further from the bubble. Hurts them, and hurts all the bubble teams they've beaten.
TCU @ Oklahoma State: Unlikely, but OSU has been falling fast (4 losses in a row). Let's hope they keep it up with a devastating home loss.
Cincy @ Tulsa: If Cincy loses out, we can get the 3 seed. If Tulsa wins out, they get the 1 seed, so I guess we want them to win this and then lose to SMU (provided Cincy loses out...then we pull for Tulsa)
USC @ UCLA: Unlikely, but go Trojans!
Colorado State @ Nevada: Nevada is not good this year (RPI 301), so this is a no-win situation for CSU. Hopefully for us, but unlikely, CSU gets a bad road loss.
Boise State @ San José State: Again unlikely...San José State hasn't won a game against a DI school. Beating Boise would essentially eliminate BSU from the bubble.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon State is bad, but they may be able to take out the Ducks.

Thought on Memphis. We want them to stay Top 100. I ran a scenario where they lost their last two games, beat USF in the 6-11 game, and then lost to Cincy (likely 3 seed). They were 98. Winning that 6-11 game against USF or Houston will be big. And the whole conference needs them to so that we all get those bonuses for RPI Top 100 wins and losses.

As of 1030pm:

Helps us: USF wins, Bryant wins (required a desperation 3 to send it to OT), Duke wins, LSU loses, Pitt loses, Purdue loses

Doesn't help: Tulane loses to Houston

 

[BFieldHusky]

Now 4-7 v.s. Top 50 RPI as Cincy won last night to go back into Top 50 RPI. Problem is none are on the road.

 

[tzznandrew]

Update

RPI Games

UCF @ South Florida: USF won big.
Houston @ Tulane: Houston beat Tulane...
Bryant v. Sacred Heart: Bulldogs win in 2OT
Wake Forest @ Duke: Duke won.

Other Games Affecting the Bubble:

Ohio State @ Penn State: OSU won
Tennessee @ LSU: LSU got beat, knocking them out of the RPI Top 50. A&M now has 0 Top 50 wins.
Miami @ Pitt: Miami wins, pretty much eliminating Pitt.
Purdue @ Michigan State: Michigan State wins
TCU @ Oklahoma State: No suprise, OK State took care of business.
Cincy @ Tulsa: Cincy took out Tulsa. Can't get the 3 seed now.
USC @ UCLA: UCLA won.
Colorado State @ Nevada: Colorado State won... but this didn't really help CSU
Boise State @ San José State: Boise won...but again, Samson Johnson State is terrible, no help.
Oregon @ Oregon State: Oregon won a tight one.

 

[tzznandrew]

Our Updated Resume
Record: 17-11
RPI: 70 (+1)
KenPom: 56 (=)
SOS: 69 (-5)
NC SOS: 77 (-11)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3 (=)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (was 3-6)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 7-8

Tulsa...their loss to Cincy dropped them to RPI 47. We want them to stay Top 50. I ran RPIForecast. If they lose to SMU, then beat ECU, then lose in the American semis to Cincy, they supposedly will end at 41. If they lose that game to ECU...52. If, instead of ECU, it's Tulane...and they lose. 47. Supposedly. So, I guess we want Tulane to take the 7 seed so that Tulsa stays RPI Top 50.

Tonight's RPI Games:

Delaware State @ Coppin State: Coppin State win would help.
Stanford @ Arizona State: A Stanford win would help our RPI. An Stanford loss would push them further back in the bubble. Go Devils.

Bubble Games
Memphis @ UConn: Duh. Win or we officially officially need the American Tournament
Temple @ ECU: Temple is a fellow bubble team, but we need them to stay Top 50 RPI for a number of reasons
Marshall @ Old Dominion: ODU doesn't have a particularly compelling case for the tournament, so far as I can tell (1 Top 50 win). Losing to RPI 296 would finish them
VCU @ Davidson: losing to VCU would not finish Davidson, but I think you should need more than 1 Top 50 win to make the dance. Let's hope they don't get it here.

 

[aceboon]

Dauster addressed TX A&M in his bubble banter, their resume is weak as hell

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...assive-night-for-teams-sitting-on-the-bubble/

• Texas A&M: Someone is going to have to explain to me why Texas A&M is in most bracket projections, because I just don’t get it. The Aggies don’t have any bad losses on their resume — they lost at Alabama and Florida and dropped a game against Kansas State on a neutral court — so let’s just get that out of the way now. They do have a 6-9 record against the top 100, but that number is deceiving because only two of those wins came against the top 75. And, curiously enough, both of those top 75 wins were against an LSU team that is anything but a lock to make the tournament after losing to Tennessee at home tonight. That loss will drop the Tigers back out of the top 50 — which is why A&M is a loser on a night where the didn’t play — meaning that A&M is now in these tournament projections solely because … they have not lost a single game to a “bad” team? That’s it. Because it’s a fact that they have not proven the ability to beat NCAA tournament-caliber teams. And that’s not a recipe that I think deserves an at-large bid.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Exactly. A and M really bothers me. Take a look at our comparison. LSU has now fallen out of top 50 so that removes their two top 50 wins. Non-Conf SOS of 137 too. How are they in?

 

[tzznandrew]

Updated Bubble

(+ is a bad thing with rankings and bolded losses, good with bolded wins; - a good thing with rankings and bolded losses, bad with bolded wins)

BYU
Record: 21-8
RPI: 43 (+4)
KenPom: 26 (=)
SOS: 80 (+4)
NC SOS: 19 (+3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 4-5
v. RPI sub-150: 13-0 (was 12-0)
R/N: 9-5

Boise State
Record: 21-7
RPI: 40 (+10)
KenPom: 40 (+3)
SOS: 124 (+25)
NC SOS: 173 (-11)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-1
v. RPI Top 50: 3-3
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 13-1
R/N: 11-6

Colorado State
Record: 24-5
RPI: 28 (+2)
KenPom: 65 (-9)
SOS: 127 (+6)
NC SOS: 91 (-8)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 2-2
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4
v. RPI sub-150: 15-1
R/N: 10-4

Cincinnati
Record: 21-9
RPI: 36 (-15)
KenPom: 36 (-6)
SOS: 57 (-16)
NC SOS: 27 (-5)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-1
v. RPI Top 50: 6-4
v. RPI Top 100: 7-6
v. RPI sub-150: 12-2
R/N: 7-6

Davidson
Record: 20-6
RPI: 33 (-3)
KenPom: 33 (+1)
SOS: 128 (-3)
NC SOS: 236 (+2)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 1-3
v. RPI Top 100: 6-4 (-1)
v. RPI sub-150: 12-1
R/N: 8-5

Illinois
Record: 19-11
RPI: 58 (-1)
KenPom: 53 (-4)
SOS: 64 (+7)
NC SOS: 157 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-2
v. RPI Top 50: 3-6 (-1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 9-0
R/N: 5-9

Indiana
Record: 19-11
RPI: 52 (+10)
KenPom: 57 (+10)
SOS: 35 (+3)
NC SOS: 118 (+9)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-4 (-1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (-1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 8-10 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 4-8

LSU
Record: 21-9
RPI: 54 (+9)
KenPom: 44 (+16)
SOS: 96 (+4)
NC SOS: 162 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-1
v. RPI Top 50: 4-4
v. RPI Top 100: 11-6 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 9-3 (+1, +1)
R/N: 8-5

Miami
Record: 19-11
RPI: 65 (-5)
KenPom: 62 (-4)
SOS: 61 (-5)
NC SOS: 192 (-3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 6-7 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 10-0 (-1)
R/N: 8-5 (+1)

NC State
Record: 18-12
RPI: 46 (-4)
KenPom: 42 (-1)
SOS: 6 (+1)
NC SOS: 26 (+1)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-7 (-1, +2)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-10 (+2)
v. RPI sub-150: 5-1
R/N: 4-6

Old Dominion
Record: 22-6
RPI: 42 (-14)
KenPom: 66 (+4)
SOS: 137 (-2)
NC SOS: 45 (-3)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-0
v. RPI Top 50: 2-0
v. RPI Top 100: 5-2
v. RPI sub-150: 15-3
R/N: 7-6

Oregon
Record: 22-8
RPI: 30 (-2)
KenPom: 47 (-2)
SOS: 66 (-4)
NC SOS: 149 (-7)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-5 (+1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-6
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 6-6

Pitt
Record: 18-12
RPI: 59 (+10)
KenPom: 76 (=)
SOS: 37 (-1)
NC SOS: 108 (-6)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 2-6 (-1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-9 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 4-9

Purdue
Record: 19-11
RPI: 61 (+3)
KenPom: 49 (-1)
SOS: 67 (-13)
NC SOS: 210 (-18)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 4-5 (-2, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 8-9 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-2
R/N: 6-8

Stanford
Record: 18-10
RPI: 56 (=)
KenPom: 39 (+1)
SOS: 65 (-3)
NC SOS: 90 (-5)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7 (+1 [Wofford!], +2)
v. RPI Top 100: 7-7
v. RPI sub-150: 7-1
R/N: 5-7

Temple
Record: 20-9
RPI: 41 (+1)
KenPom: 61 (-1)
SOS: 62 (-3)
NC SOS: 58 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-4
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7 (+1, +1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-8 (-1)
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 7-7

Texas
Record: 18-12
RPI: 35 (-11)
KenPom: 22 (+1)
SOS: 9 (=)
NC SOS: 75 (-12)
v. RPI Top 25: 2-9 (+1)
v. RPI Top 50: 3-11 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 6-12 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 8-0
R/N: 6-7

Texas A&M
Record: 20-9
RPI: 48 (+10)
KenPom: 42 (+3)
SOS: 89 (+3)
NC SOS: 142 (+9)
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 0-6 (-2)
v. RPI Top 100: 7-8 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 12-0 (+2)
R/N: 7-7

Tulsa
Record: 21-7
RPI: 47 (+10)
KenPom: 74 (+9)
SOS: 109 (-22)
NC SOS: 129
v. RPI Top 25: 0-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-5 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 5-6 (+1)
v. RPI sub-150: 14-1
R/N: 9-4

UCLA
Record: 19-12
RPI: 50 (-2)
KenPom: 50 (-2)
SOS: 32 (-26)
NC SOS: 64 (-6)
v. RPI Top 25: 1-6
v. RPI Top 50: 2-7
v. RPI Top 100: 5-10
v. RPI sub-150: 7-0
R/N: 3-11

Xavier
Record: 18-12
RPI: 44 (+3)
KenPom: 27 (=)
SOS: 15 (+1)
NC SOS: 53 (=)
v. RPI Top 25: 3-3 (-1, -1)
v. RPI Top 50: 5-6 (+1)
v. RPI Top 100: 9-8
v. RPI sub-150: 4-1
R/N: 5-9

 

[Jerry1714]

Texas AM being in the field as of now by most people is mind boggling.

 

[Candyman]

I would say after Cincy's win against Tulsa they are off the bubble and in.

 

[tzznandrew]

I would say after Cincy's win against Tulsa they are off the bubble and in.

Probably. I'm just updating the list as it was. Maybe switch them off this weekend and add other schools that have fallen clearly, or climbed their way, onto the bubble.

 

[Jerry1714]

I would say after Cincy's win against Tulsa they are off the bubble and in.

They certainly should be.

36 RPI and 3-1 v. Top 25.

 

[Queequeg]

The math is getting pretty complicated… NCAA v NIT

 

[tcf15]

Lunardi has UConn one team removed from "Next 4 Out"

 

[August_West]

Lunardi has UConn one team removed from "Next 4 Out"

 

[gwhuskyfan]

They just said with a win tonight we'll move in to next four out

 

[tzznandrew]

Just to update, given Richmond appearing here.

Richmond
Record: 18-12
RPI: 55
KenPom: 55
SOS: 33
NC SOS: 33
v. RPI Top 25: 2-1
v. RPI Top 50: 3-5
v. RPI Top 100: 6-8
v. RPI sub-150: 7-1
R/N: 5-9

This is a resume wholly buoyed by a sweep of VCU. They also have 4 sub-100 losses.

Their SOS numbers are ridiculous given who they've played. It's ridiculous. They got really lucky that non of their OOC ended up being sub-300...and they got lucky that a team like High Point is somehow RPI Top 100 and that their loss to Northeastern is also, at the moment, Top 100.

This is not a team with an RPI that is NCAA worthy. If UConn's one sub-100 loss (to be fair, RPI 250), then Richmond's 5 sub-99 losses should disqualify them outright.

I'll try to remember to add March 7th's Richmond game against St. Louis and Northeastern's March 7th game against Delaware to the Bubble list. Richmond being even pretend on the bubble is indicative of the absurdity of this year's bubble.