Sporting News: "not if, but when" Big Ten moves to 16...

[RS9999X]

Delaney is in no hurry. Delaney has a plan to execute first and that's the Rutgers/Maryland assimilation. In 4 years if the BiG has 5 million subscribers in those markets paying $8 a year on the standard tier and both programs are upgrading facilities and coaches then Delaney can lay claim to VA and one other and convince the rest of the BiG its accretive and improves performance and prestige.

The Big 12 identified their targets as anyone the BiG and SEC do not want in the race to 16. Miami, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech -- there will be two available. If the SEC adds two first so much the better. The BiG won't be looking any further South than NC.

 

[Exit 4]

The Big Ten has a nifty weapon to loosen teams from the ACC perch.

Money. Gobs and gobs of money.

ACC partisans keep trying to minimize it by saying that the Big Ten cash is just a projection while issuing their own wishcasts for their imaginary and unlikely network. But it's real...and the conference is due to renegotiate their Tier 1 stuff as well. The SEC and Big Ten will be swinging a bigger stick than the ACC can.

But I agree - some schools won't go no matter how much they're offered - unless, of course, the conference starts to look unstable.

What if the Big Ten just decided to go for four schools instead of two? UNC, Duke, UVa and GaTech.

I think a move like that would be the end of the game.

You are right, a move four for teams would change everything and have unpredictable ramifications for the ACC, B10 and NBE. My gut still says the proud southerns opt to go it without the big money. Instead, there will be internal pleads to wait out the ESPN contract and build a mirror TV network inthe future like B1g. The ACC doesnt need the north, the north needs the ACC. I have nothing to base this on but my gut.

 

[uconndogs]

I have no inside information and I am ignorant with regards to the media business. But, common sense tells me two things. First, Maryland took the invite with an unresolved exit fee or 50 mil hanging over their heads. They believed the money is better and the BiG more stable. I cannot believe they are alone in that assessment. Second, ACC members have to be aware that there are a limited number of spaces in the BiG and SEC, at some point "assessing" means you could lose your ass, and at that point you have to make a move.

Common sense tells me the ACC and Big12 will continue to loss major programs to the BiG and SEC and this thing will continue along its crazy path. Where UCONN lands I haven't the foggiest. Given the little I have seen of Manuel I have serious doubts whether he can play at this level.

 

[Exit 4]

Delaney is in no hurry. Delaney has a plan to execute first and that's the Rutgers/Maryland assimilation. In 4 years if the BiG has 5 million subscribers in those markets paying $8 a year on the standard tier and both programs are upgrading facilities and coaches then Delaney can lay claim to VA and one other and convince the rest of the BiG its accretive and improves performance and prestige.

The Big 12 identified their targets as anyone the BiG and SEC do not want in the race to 16. Miami, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech -- there will be two available. If the SEC adds two first so much the better. The BiG won't be looking any further South than NC.

I agree, the B1G is now under pressure to prove their tv network will be truly accretive. The longer this takes, the more time the ACC will have to boost their TV revenues as well to preserve the conference. Perhaps 5 years from now the ACC will feel less pressure, not more, to move if the B1G network slighly underperforms while the ACC makes some revenue enhancements. I'm not convinced the B1G network will be must see tv.

 

[uconndogs]

.......... My gut still says the proud southerns opt to go it without the big money.........

With all due respect..........you cannot possibly be serious. This thing is about one thing and one thing only.........

 

[RMoore1999]

The Big Ten has a nifty weapon to loosen teams from the ACC perch.

Money. Gobs and gobs of money.

ACC partisans keep trying to minimize it by saying that the Big Ten cash is just a projection while issuing their own wishcasts for their imaginary and unlikely network. But it's real...and the conference is due to renegotiate their Tier 1 stuff as well. The SEC and Big Ten will be swinging a bigger stick than the ACC can.

But I agree - some schools won't go no matter how much they're offered - unless, of course, the conference starts to look unstable.

What if the Big Ten just decided to go for four schools instead of two? UNC, Duke, UVa and GaTech.

I think a move like that would be the end of the game.

Agreed. A few of us here and elsewhere reached that same conclusion when Rutgers joined, if not earlier. If Connecticut doesn't ultimately get invited to a 16-20 team B1G, our destiny lies with which ever 2 to 6 acc schools remain after the SEC and B1G devour the sumptuous white breast meat and the B12 picks the dark meat off the carcass...

Connecticut, Wake, Cuse and whoever else is left would be left to join the cast of cusa schools...

Think Chicken Soup.

 

[Exit 4]

I have no inside information and I am ignorant with regards to the media business. But, common sense tells me two things. First, Maryland took the invite with an unresolved exit fee or 50 mil hanging over their heads. They believed the money is better and the BiG more stable. I cannot believe they are alone in that assessment. Second, ACC members have to be aware that there are a limited number of spaces in the BiG and SEC, at some point "assessing" means you could lose your ass, and at that point you have to make a move.

Common sense tells me the ACC and Big12 will continue to loss major programs to the BiG and SEC and this thing will continue along its crazy path. Where UCONN lands I haven't the foggiest. Given the little I have seen of Manuel I have serious doubts whether he can play at this level.

I think Maryland left because its a geographic fit to the B1G and really-really needed the money. Maryland is fiscally in the most dire straits of any of the ACC schools.

 

[Exit 4]

With all due respect..........you cannot possibly be serious. This thing is about one thing and one thing only.........

Well, if the alumni and boosters don’t buy in, then the additional money the B1G offers has to be adjusted for the shortfall in other areas. Furthermore, I personally view this B1G network advantage as a temporary situation. Why can’t the ACC build their own network and mirror the B1G? I think preserving the ACC as is with the internal promise to strike a better TV deal (ie the Commish convinces the ACC members that it do what the B1G has done) and adding a tie in with the B10 will be the easier sell for their alumni. Forget bowing to the north, keep their heart in NC.

 

[uconnfan68]

Well, if the alumni and boosters don’t buy in, then the additional money the B1G offers has to be adjusted for the shortfall in other areas. Furthermore, I personally view this B1G network advantage as a temporary situation. Why can’t the ACC build their own network and mirror the B1G? I think preserving the ACC as is with the internal promise to strike a better TV deal (ie the Commish convinces the ACC members that it do what the B1G has done) and adding a tie in with the B10 will be the easier sell for their alumni. Forget bowing to the north, keep their heart in NC.

I was under the impression the long-term ESPN contract prohibited the ACC from developing their own network. Been wrong before though, and I'm sure I'll be wrong again today.

 

[Fishy]

I was under the impression the long-term ESPN contract prohibited the ACC from developing their own network. Been wrong before though, and I'm sure I'll be wrong again today.

ESPN owns all of the ACC's broadcast rights.

Their network fantasy assumes that ESPN will return some of those rights. There is also the issue of Raycom which the ACC insisted be given a sublicensing deal from ESPN.

 

[RS9999X]

Raycom is the ACC Network. But its like the old BE Network.

The only way an ACC network evolves is with ESPN off-loading the games and sports it doesn't want to the Network for a percentage ownership. Raycom becomes a partner in the network and the other regional sports networks that ESPN normally sells to including CBS and Fox are excluded and contracts bought out. What does ESPN get for that move? A 35% stake in nothing? Raycom gets 15% and the ACC 50%? Then the ACC Network has to prove it can improve on the old distribution model and with carriage fees and advertising be a win/win/win for a all 3 parties.

Not impossible. It just sounds like too much work for Swofford who is better at scheming than executing this type of project plan. I could execute it but not Swofford

 

[upstater]

One thing about this idea that the football schools will go their separate ways and quit the NCAA. Say a bunch of ACC schools (4 to B12, 2 or 4 to B1G, 2 to SEC) go elsewhere. That still leaves 7 ACC schools plus Cincy and UConn without a home.

It is extremely hard then to believe that those 9 schools would be locked out of the basketball side of this equation. Especially if Duke is one of them.

 

[Fishy]

Raycom is the ACC Network. But its like the old BE Network.

The only way an ACC network evolves is with ESPN off-loading the games and sports it doesn't want to the Network for a percentage ownership. Raycom becomes a partner in the network and the other regional sports networks that ESPN normally sells to including CBS and Fox are excluded and contracts bought out. What does ESPN get for that move? A 35% stake in nothing? Raycom gets 15% and the ACC 50%? Then the ACC Network has to prove it can improve on the old distribution model and with carriage fees and advertising be a win/win/win for a all 3 parties.

The current Raycom deal is a deal between that network and ESPN - the ACC gets nothing from it.

ESPN gains nothing from a proposed ACC network - I think this was truly a misstep by the ACC when they renegotiated their deal. They maximized their money for that exact moment in time and perhaps left some of it on the table going forward - that deal makes them vulnerable long term.

And then you get into the issue of carriage fees - outside of North Carolina and Virginia, which carriers are going to want to pay fees for that channel when they're already ponying up X number of dollars for the new SEC Network or the Big Ten Network?

Any current talk of an ACC Network is really just a vanity play.

 

[RS9999X]

Duke, Wake, Pitt, BCU, SU, USF, UCF, Cincy, UConn, Temple, Memphis, Lousville.

Stranger things have happened. Decent enough East Coast League.

 

[Fishy]

Duke, Wake, Pitt, BCU, SU, USF, UCF, Cincy, UConn, Temple, Memphis, Lousville.

Stranger things have happened. Decent enough East Coast League.

If that happens, we make Syracuse, Pitt and Louisville apply to get back into the Really, Really and Yet Sorta Old New Big East.

 

[Exit 4]

Raycom is the ACC Network. But its like the old BE Network.

The only way an ACC network evolves is with ESPN off-loading the games and sports it doesn't want to the Network for a percentage ownership. Raycom becomes a partner in the network and the other regional sports networks that ESPN normally sells to including CBS and Fox are excluded and contracts bought out. What does ESPN get for that move? A 35% stake in nothing? Raycom gets 15% and the ACC 50%? Then the ACC Network has to prove it can improve on the old distribution model and with carriage fees and advertising be a win/win/win for a all 3 parties.

Not impossible. It just sounds like too much work for Swofford who is better at scheming than executing this type of project plan. I could execute it but not Swofford

Rather than risk cultural upheaval under a B1G union, I think the ACC schools push Swofford to squeeze more out of the current tv deal (again) and develop a long range plan to craft their own comprehensive sports tv package in the future. Maryland, adjacent to Penn St and financially weakest of the ACC pact took the easy money. I think UNC, Duke, GT have a tougher internal sell on the B1G and therefore they will push for the best of both, to remain in the ACC and to lean on ESPN. Sprinkle in a broad alliance agreement with B10 for all sports and violia, the ACC wins.

Turning back to the Northeast. Rutgers, MD and Penn St dont have the critical mass to force a juicy BiG cable contract in the Northeast. Its just not enough to cut through the sports clutter. They need another area team; whether its Syr, Uconn or BC to ensure steady interest. One of these three needs to go to the B1G and of these, we fit best with the B1G profile.

 

[RS9999X]

The current Raycom deal is a deal between that network and ESPN - the ACC gets nothing from it.

ESPN gains nothing from a proposed ACC network - I think this was truly a misstep by the ACC when they renegotiated their deal. They maximized their money for that exact moment in time and perhaps left some of it on the table going forward - that deal makes them vulnerable long term.

And then you get into the issue of carriage fees - outside of North Carolina and Virginia, which carriers are going to want to pay fees for that channel when they're already ponying up X number of dollars for the new SEC Network or the Big Ten Network?

Any current talk of an ACC Network is really just a vanity play.

I think the ACC knew what you know to be true: the Carriage Fees just aren't there for an ACC Network to succeed. Only 52,000 FSU fans showed up for the 2010 game against Wake. 20,000 fans went missing for that one game. Most likely: Raycom now subcontracts the ACC vault and streaming and could choose to expand it. Include the non-revenue sports, RayCom content and Vault content for a very modest subscription fee to steam to all devices.

They are starting to back into a decent streaming network by default

http://www.theacc.com/accnetwork/

 

[Fishy]

There might be an issue there, too. For starters, the rights to ACC hoop and football are gone - ESPN has them. If you're going to see them online, it will be on ESPN3. Beyond that, most programs have individual deals for what they refer to as their multi-media rights.

e.g. UConn receives $8M for their MM rights from IMG. I think UNC gets $9.5, most ACC schools receive far less. (NC State only gets $4.5m).

Again, the problem there is that the current rights - from Tier 1 to Tier 3, right down to the right to stream game audio over the 'net, are already sold and would have to be recaptured. (Even if they weren't, the subscription model would produce peanuts and likely operate at a loss.)

Happily, the ACC is in a box.

 

[UCFBfan]

Turning back to the Northeast. Rutgers, MD and Penn St dont have the critical mass to force a juicy BiG cable contract in the Northeast. Its just not enough to cut through the sports clutter. They need another area team; whether its Syr, Uconn or BC to ensure steady interest. One of these three needs to go to the B1G and of these, we fit best with the B1G profile.

I agree with this. When UConn went to SNY, everyone in CT demanded that SNY be added to their cable package. I believe it happened in time for the first UConn game. The same would happen if UConn went to the B1G. That's an entire state that the B1G would be able to add. Is CT a huge get? Not necessarily but there are UConn alums in RI, MA, and NY that would want the BTN as well. I don't know if BC moves the needle enough in Boston for folks to demand that BTN be added but there's history with the SNY move to show that CT would add the BTN in a heartbeat if UConn went to the B1G. Add them with RU and NYC would likely be move attainable.

 

[Exit 4]

I think the ACC knew what you know to be true: the Carriage Fees just aren't there for an ACC Network to succeed. Only 52,000 FSU fans showed up for the 2010 game against Wake. 20,000 fans went missing for that one game. Most likely: Raycom now subcontracts the ACC vault and streaming and could choose to expand it. Include the non-revenue sports, RayCom content and Vault content for a very modest subscription fee to steam to all devices.

They are starting to back into a decent streaming network by default

http://www.theacc.com/accnetwork/

If the ACC cant squeeze more out of its TV sports in its own markets, then why would the B1G be anymore successful once it has the choice ACC schools in their fold? The B1G will encounter the same problems. If people in NC, SC, Georgia, etc wont pay for the ACC channel, I see no reason to pay for the B1G channel. And I just dont think the notion of watching UNC play Michigan in football will be a game changer in these markets to propel the B1G channel to places the ACC channel could never get too. Daleny wont be able to promise this, he'll only be able to pitch the potential.

 

[Exit 4]

There might be an issue there, too. For starters, the rights to ACC hoop and football are gone - ESPN has them. If you're going to see them online, it will be on ESPN3. Beyond that, most programs have individual deals for what they refer to as their multi-media rights.

e.g. UConn receives $8M for their MM rights from IMG. I think UNC gets $9.5, most ACC schools receive far less. (NC State only gets $4.5m).

Again, the problem there is that the current rights - from Tier 1 to Tier 3, right down to the right to stream game audio over the 'net, are already sold and would have to be recaptured. (Even if they weren't, the subscription model would produce peanuts and likely operate at a loss.)

Happily, the ACC is in a box.

What happens if the league dissolves? Then ESPN has no content and isn’t that why the ACC does have some power here to renegotiate?

 

[Fishy]

It wouldn't dissolve - there would still be a league there in some fashion.

And the majority of the escapees would likely land in other conferences with ESPN agreements. (Big 12, SEC.)

 

[Exit 4]

It wouldn't dissolve - there would still be a league there in some fashion.

And the majority of the escapees would likely land in other conferences with ESPN agreements. (Big 12, SEC.)

It effectively dissolves if UNC, GT, UVA and Duke go B1G; Louisville, FSU, Miami and Clemson to B12 and NC State and VT to SEC.

That would leave just WF, Syr, Pitt & BC.

The more I think about it, the more I think CAR will take a two year break. B1G needs to prove that its channel will produce the $$ in new markets. How can UNC, UVA, etc be assured they come out materially ahead. The roll out of the B1G channel in MD and NJ could have a meaningful impact on CAR.

PS - I have B1G in Fairfield County on FIOS. The channel is a total bore. If watch the golf and NHL channel more. While its full of B1G content, it has no sizzle. Its coverage is akin to CSPAN.

 

[Fishy]

I think you're moving too many teams around - my guess is that the Big Ten and SEC stop at 16 and the Big 12 at 12.

The Big 12 seems particularly sensitive to maximizing their payouts and they do not have the upside of their own network or an expiring Tier 1 deal to count on to drive revenue - from a revenue perspective, a school like Louisville is essentially dead weight. Florida State isn't in a particularly impressive market, but Miami is and perhaps the two of them make an attractive pair. (Speculation.)

Another thing to keep in mind - the Big Ten's Tier 1 deal expires in the 2015/2016 season. The renewal will be massive.

Their Tier 2 rights are all BTN which assures carriage fees in any members' market. I agree that it's usually pretty dull, but so is ESPN until 7:00 pm - every sports' network is basically treading water until the games start. But look at Wednesday night...the BTN has their Super Wednesday of Minnesota at Michigan State at 7 and Iowa-Wisconsin at 9. Meaningless for us, but if we're in the Big Ten or fans of the Big Ten, we're watching.

No one has to stand back and wonder about the Big Ten's cash - Maryland has seen under the dress and it's real.

 

[B1GEast]

Maryland has seen under the dress and it's real.

Did they see Delaney's fat as$ too?