In my unqualified opinion, I just dont think schools south of Virginia will take the B1G plunge. The cultural, weather and travel angles are just too significant. VA is the only 'southern' school I could see making the switch because its sits at the southern end of the Wash-Bost megalopolis with a significant alumni base spread from DC to NYC (Paul Tudor Jones - VA biggest boost - bar none - lives in Gwich CT). And while the loss of VA to the B1G maybe a psychological blow to the ACC, is it really a blow to their conference from a competition perspective? VA doesnt bring anything to the ACC for basketball or football.
While I expect we will continue to hear all kinds of stories about UNC, GT and others leaving the ACC, I think at the end of the day the alumni and the trustees of these schools will not permit it. Heading north means alot of travel for all their teams (think of the burden for all sports) and fewer games in cities with their own alumni. The SEC is the true wildcard, but again, I think the other members of the ACC will make a successful pitch to UNC to counter and SEC offer. Why leave to be a middle of the pack school in the SEC when they can be top dog in the ACC.
Meanwhile if VA leaves, I dont think it will spell the end for the ACC. They will grab either Cinci or SouthFlorida or WV (WV has to be feel insecure about being on an island w/B10 - it could really damage the school in the long run for both recruiting and alumni- with no presence on the east coast). Cinci, SF or WV all bring more to the sports table than VA. Of course they dont bring the DC tv market, but again, they actually bring a better sports brand and do offer some new TV ground relative to the league. Furthermore, the loss of VA will just accelerate a dialogue with the B10 on a partnership which I think would be successful in keeping FSU, Clemson and others happy as well.
Circling back to Uconn. We are the perfect fit to compliment the VA move to B1G.
1) We bookend the megalopolis which is completely necessary if the B1G wants to have some leverage on east coast cable operators. Rutgers and MD alone will not give the B1G the leverage to jack up carriage fees. Two more schools are absolutely necessary. Critical mass must be established.
2) The addition of UConn would boost the B1G’s ability to use MSG. I don’t think the B1G conf tournament would be conducted there, but you could have other early season tournys and other events. Say what you want about MSG, the B1G must have events at MSG if it wants to have a meaningful presence on the east coast. Events at MSG draw the big money boosters and the media and boost the brand. Rutgers alone wont deliver meaningful events at MSG.
3) Its clear Malloy and Herbst are pulling out all the stops to elevate the school. This is sure to aid Delany in convincing skeptics within the B1G of CT's commitment for greatness both academically and in sports. If you are sitting in the B1G right now you have to be impress with their commitment to invest and secure greatness.
My gut is that the B1G is exploring UNC and UVA and others in the south, but in the they will find the others aren’t coming and so we fit the bill as Plan B.