Maybe not "totally honest," and I'm not much of a math guy, but a lot of these schematic decisions - whether to invite a shot or defend it - boil down to mathematical propositions, no? There is a point where a shot is either efficient or inefficient, and from my understanding, even a marginal difference in percentage like the example you gave can tilt the arrow in either direction.
Again, I could be wrong, but the analytics, I would guess, treat 30% three point shooters and 35% three point shooters differently. In regards to the percentages, I have always thought of 33% as the bare minimum, 35-36% as average, 38-40% as excellent and anything above that as transformative. The difference between "average" and "you shouldn't be taking threes" might very well exist between those figures, even if it seems insignificant on the surface.