Shifting in AP top 25: Does Tennessee drop out?

[Bear11]

I see the stats. However, if Kansas played Temple, I believe Temple would win. Who has Kansas played and beat that is a good team?

Kansas has wins over LSU, Kansas state, and Northwestern, all P5 schools with winning records. Temple’s best win is over 6-12 St. Joseph’s.

 

[Shades]

Tournament selection is overwhelmingly based on results, not on the so-called "eye test." He's not there to impose his personal opinion, but to predict what the selection committee would decide.

True enough, but it’s hard to believe the numbers even support them as a tournament team. It’s not like they’re being beat by great teams.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I see the stats. However, if Kansas played Temple, I believe Temple would win. Who has Kansas played and beat that is a good team?

donald, you seem very rational, but on this point I am missing what you're seeing.

Kansas (11-5) has beaten some decent teams (rankings are Massey):
#43 @K State
#53 @LSU
#55 Northwestern (neutral location)

Here are all 4 of Temple's wins (4-13)
290 @St Joseph's
383 LaSalle
696 Iona
724 Delaware St

 

[Plebe]

True enough, but it’s hard to believe the numbers even support them as a tournament team. It’s not like they’re being beat by great teams.

Well, Creme breaks down the numbers that "tenuously" supported them (prior to Monday's loss):

"Yes, the Lady Vols are still in the field despite their first four-game losing streak since 1970, but their place is as tenuous as it has ever been. Tennessee still has three top-50 wins and five against top-100 competition. That's more than some others in this week's bracket (not to mention some teams that aren't). ... Arkansas, Notre Dame and LSU loom for the Lady Vols, and anything short of 2-1 record in those games means they will need plenty of help to stay in the field."

 

[Reypl21]

donald, you seem very rational, but on this point I am missing what you're seeing.

Kansas (11-5) has beaten some decent teams (rankings are Massey):
#43 @K State
#53 @LSU
#55 Northwestern (neutral location)

Here are all 4 of Temple's wins (4-13)
290 @St Joseph's
383 LaSalle
696 Iona
724 Delaware St

UConn plays Temple and not Kansas. So therefore, Temple is better

Massey ratings don't matter in this context

 

[willtalk]

Well, Creme breaks down the numbers that "tenuously" supported them (prior to Monday's loss):

"Yes, the Lady Vols are still in the field despite their first four-game losing streak since 1970, but their place is as tenuous as it has ever been. Tennessee still has three top-50 wins and five against top-100 competition. That's more than some others in this week's bracket (not to mention some teams that aren't). ... Arkansas, Notre Dame and LSU loom for the Lady Vols, and anything short of 2-1 record in those games means they will need plenty of help to stay in the field."

The thing is that those wins came at the beginning of the season. The team now does not even resemble that team. They are on full tank mode. A lot can be said for teams playing well after a rocky start and the reverse is also relevant. It is not just a teams record but how they are playing at present. A five game ( soon to be six ) losing streak is not something to be ignored, especially when considering the level of teams it came against.

 

[Reypl21]

The thing is that those wins came at the beginning of the season. The team now does not even resemble that team. They are on full tank mode. A lot can be said for teams playing well after a rocky start and the reverse is also relevant. It is not just a teams record but how they are playing at present. A five game ( soon to be six ) losing streak is not something to be ignored, especially when considering the level of teams it came against.

An example I can think of is the Louisville 15-16 team that started 1-4, but slowly started to get it together. I think they lost to Kentucky again in the non-conference but played good in the ACC. Durr had a groin injury, but the team was really young overall. They picked it up and got invited to the tourney.

I like your post because it makes sense with recent success being more important than initial success. If the Vols don't pick it up, they should not make the tourney. I think they might pick it up, and win maybe one or two games against TaM, Mizzou, or South Carolina. But even if they don't, I think the committee with still invite them just for namesakes. Unfortunately.

 

[DefenseBB]

Here’s my quibble with Charlie on his Tenn logic (or illogic), beating a top 50/100 teams is negligible as the NCAA selects 64 teams, 31(?) have automatic bids so that leaves 33 spots for at large teams. Tenn has to be compared these mostly other P5 teams. Now add in DePaul, Butler, SD/SD St, BYU, Ohio/Buffalo and there are other non P5 conferences who warrant multiple bids over a poor Lady Vol team.
Their Top 50 wins (at the time) were #37 Auburn (currently deserves to be in ahead of Tenn), #47 Clemson (unknown what they really are) and #50 Oklahoma (really?) so this is not a great argument by Charlie. To me, Tenn is clearly on the outside at this point, however with so many games left in the SEC, they have an opportunity to re-establish themselves. They won’t, of course but it’s stil an opportunity

Now, the best thing about Dawn coming out publicly in support of “a certain coach” is she’s calling out their fan base, which should signal to that delusional crop there’s no way she would ever want to coach there! That’s awesome!

 

[Plebe]

Here’s my quibble with Charlie on his Tenn logic (or illogic), beating a top 50/100 teams is negligible as the NCAA selects 64 teams, 31(?) have automatic bids so that leaves 33 spots for at large teams. Tenn has to be compared these mostly other P5 teams. Now add in DePaul, Butler, SD/SD St, BYU, Ohio/Buffalo and there are other non P5 conferences who warrant multiple bids over a poor Lady Vol team.
Their Top 50 wins (at the time) were #37 Auburn (currently deserves to be in ahead of Tenn), #47 Clemson (unknown what they really are) and #50 Oklahoma (really?) so this is not a great argument by Charlie. To me, Tenn is clearly on the outside at this point, however with so many games left in the SEC, they have an opportunity to re-establish themselves. They won’t, of course but it’s stil an opportunity

Now, the best thing about Dawn coming out publicly in support of “a certain coach” is she’s calling out their fan base, which should signal to that delusional crop there’s no way she would ever want to coach there! That’s awesome!

Tenneessee also has a road win over Texas, which is going to be one of the best wins among "bubble" teams.

 

[DefenseBB]

Tenneessee also has a road win over Texas, which is going to be one of the best wins among "bubble" teams.

...and that is why I am rooting for Iowa St, WV and K St to finish higher than Texas-to diminish that win!

 

[Plebe]

...and that is why I am rooting for Iowa St, WV and K St to finish higher than Texas-to diminish that win!

Ha, are you sure you want Holly to get fired?

 

[DefenseBB]

Ha, are you sure you want Holly to get fired?

As long as they hire another LVFL, sure! If they hire a non-Tenn affiliate, then no, but what are the chances of Tenn hiring the right coach for this program given its legacy?
I want as much angst inflicted to VolNation as possible and Holly not qualifying for the NCAA and being retained for another year is the best option!

 

[IWearShoes]

You are totally right it will work itself out, but I'd argue you dont' have a case to be moved ahead of Oregon (who beat Miss St) or Stanford (who has beaten Baylor). Louisville, on the other hand,doesn't have a marquee win on their resume right now.

There are cases. I already mentioned the main one. An impartial computer model, taking much more into account than the few data points the human mind generally can, says they are slightly better than the other three. UL has the best loss of the 4, but less quality wins. MSU clearly has has the 2nd best loss and a Top 10 win vs Marquette. Stanford has a loss to a quality Gonzaga team and a great win vs Baylor. Oregon has a great win vs MSU at home, but a not so great loss at Mich St on the road. Like I said, they're comparable at this point and it'll work itself out.

 

[Plebe]

There are cases. I already mentioned the main one. An impartial computer model, taking much more into account than the few data points the human mind generally can, says they are slightly better than the other three. UL has the best loss of the 4, but less quality wins. MSU clearly has has the 2nd best loss and a Top 10 win vs Marquette. Stanford has a loss to a quality Gonzaga team and a great win vs Baylor. Oregon has a great win vs MSU at home, but a not so great loss at Mich St on the road. Like I said, they're comparable at this point and it'll work itself out.

A team's poll placement throughout the season continues to bear the residual influence of where they started out. MSU started at #6 and moved as high as #4 after Oregon and Baylor lost games. MSU then dropped to #8 after the loss to Oregon, and has since risen to #7 after Maryland lost. If MSU had started out at, say, #2 instead of #6, they'd probably be around #4 or #5 right now.

But in general, if your team doesn't beat anyone higher-ranked and no higher-ranked team suffers an upset, you're not gonna move up in the polls. The AP voters are not look up the Massey rankings and say, "Oh my gosh! MSU is #4 in Massey! I have to move them up!" Doesn't work that way.