Seedings UConn Bridgeport or Spokane?

[Plebe]

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

Why are you calling Baylor the #9 seed? In the committee's "reveal" one week ago, Baylor was #13.

I assume you're referring to the AP poll, which is completely irrelevant to NCAAT seeding.

And besides, one single loss to a good team will not preclude a team from rising up the committee's ranking. Especially with over a month of games still to be played.

 

[visitingcock]

Why are you calling Baylor the #9 seed? In the committee's "reveal" one week ago, Baylor was #13.

I assume you're referring to the AP poll, which is completely irrelevant to NCAAT seeding.

And besides, one single loss to a good team will not preclude a team from rising up the committee's ranking. Especially with over a month of games still to be played.

I don't think Baylor will sniff a two seed - or even three.

I know you don't agree with my theories of "conference politics" but they form a basis for this belief..


ACC probable two top 8 seeds.
PAC probable two top 8 seeds.
Big 12 probable one top 8 seed.
Big Ten probable one top 8 seed.
SEC probable two top 8 seeds. Tennessee could fall to a three with a UConn win and an SEC "upset" and two losses to SCar. (here is where UConn could move up)

In my opinion, Baylor is about number 4 in the Big 12. Their champ will be probably be I-State (whose two losses without the Joen's sisters are forgivable.) They will probably get a two seed. Oklahoma and Texas will probably be three seeds. I predict Baylor as a four.

eam	Big 12 Record	Pct.	Home	Away	Streak	Overall Record	Pct.	Home	Away	Neutral	Streak
Iowa State	8-2	0.800	4-1	4-1	W3	19-3	0.864	11-1	5-2	3-0	W3
Oklahoma	8-2	0.800	4-1	4-1	W3	19-3	0.864	11-1	6-1	2-1	W3
Texas	5-3	0.625	2-2	3-1	L1	15-4	0.789	8-2	6-2	1-0	L1
Baylor	5-3	0.625	2-1	3-2	L1	15-5	0.750	8-1	4-3	3-1	L1
Kansas State	6-4	0.600	4-1	2-3	L1	16-6	0.727	12-1	4-5	0-0	L1
Kansas	5-4	0.556	2-2	3-2	W2	14-5	0.737	9-2	4-2	1-1	W2

 

[Plebe]

I don't think Baylor will sniff a two seed - or even three.

I know you don't agree with my theories of "conference politics" but they form a basis for this belief..


ACC probable two top 8 seeds.
PAC probable two top 8 seeds.
Big 12 probable one top 8 seed.
Big Ten probable one top 8 seed.
SEC probable two top 8 seeds. Tennessee could fall to a three with a UConn win and an SEC "upset" and two losses to SCar. (here is where UConn could move up)

In my opinion, Baylor is about number 4 in the Big 12. Their champ will be probably be I-State (whose two losses without the Joen's sisters are forgivable.) They will probably get a two seed. Oklahoma and Texas will probably be three seeds. I predict Baylor as a four.

Your predictions may or may not be borne out, but it'll be based on a team-by-team analysis. Slots aren't allotted to conferences in the way that FIFA allots World Cup bids to the continental federations. There is absolutely zero evidence that the committee ever thinks along these lines.

We already know that the committee had Baylor #13 as of Jan. 27, so hardly a stretch to predict a 4 seed for them.

Tennessee is unlikely to drop as low as a 3 seed unless they lose multiple games to lesser teams (not SC or even UConn). But certainly, a lot can happen in the next five weeks.

One more thing: the conference standings do not necessarily reflect how the committee will rank conference foes relative to each other. Notice how Texas, despite not leading in the Big 12 standings, was ranked by the committee higher than any other Big 12 team, and that's largely because of their very strong nonconference win at Stanford.

 

[visitingcock]

Your predictions may or may not be borne out, but it'll be based on a team-by-team analysis. Slots aren't allotted to conferences in the way that FIFA allots World Cup bids to the continental federations. There is absolutely zero evidence that the committee ever thinks along these lines.

We already know that the committee had Baylor #13 as of Jan. 27, so hardly a stretch to predict a 4 seed for them.

Tennessee is unlikely to drop as low as a 3 seed unless they lose multiple games to lesser teams (not SC or even UConn). But certainly, a lot can happen in the next five weeks.

One more thing: the conference standings do not necessarily reflect how the committee will rank conference foes relative to each other. Notice how Texas, despite not leading in the Big 12 standings, was ranked by the committee higher than any other Big 12 team, and that's largely because of their very strong nonconference win at Stanford.

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

 

[Plebe]

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

The raw number of losses is close to irrelevant. BYU is a 1-loss team and didn't even crack the committee's top 16. Losses to Stanford and South Carolina will not lessen TN's resume one bit as a prospective 2 seed.

Even if UConn "jumps" Tennessee, that doesn't mean that TN necessarily drops to a 3 seed. None of these outcomes will happen in a vacuum. Much will depend on how all the other teams in the mix for a 2 or 3 seed (Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Iowa State, etc.) fare by comparison.

 

[visitingcock]

The raw number of losses is close to irrelevant. BYU is a 1-loss team and didn't even crack the committee's top 16. Losses to Stanford and South Carolina will not lessen TN's resume one bit as a prospective 2 seed. Nor will UConn's losses to SCar and Louisville. Tennessee's quad 2 loss to Auburn will.

Even if UConn "jumps" Tennessee, that doesn't mean that TN necessarily drops to a 3 seed. None of these outcomes will happen in a vacuum. Much will depend on how all the other teams in the mix for a 2 or 3 seed (Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Iowa State, etc.) fare by comparison.

Of course. (Add Oklahoma. Indeed other will play roles as well in the mix). Michigan is almost set to be a two.

 

[MilfordHusky]

When the seedings came out a week ago, we were #11. Since then:

#3 NC State loss

#4 Tenn loss (almost 2)

#6 Indiana loss

#7 Texas loss

#8 Arizona loss

#10 Iowa State loss

#13 Baylor loss

#16 Kansas State 2 losses

 

[willtalk]

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

 

[jchusky]

what happens to other teams is irrelevant, Uconn will be judged by winning or losing to Tenn. If they lose then they will not get favoritism by the committee. Big East games do nothing, they just hurt if you lose.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

@visitingcock ... good info...and such a big wager!! BUT, I must point out that if we assume the bold sentence above as you wrote it, UCONN would be a FOUR loss team (not 5 loss) ... just as they are now.

The dominoes are falling one by one... and as they do UCONN's "ranking" by the committee could/should(?) change for the better... the KEY question is how does that impact the brackets... the committee said after the first reveal that UCONN is not in Bridgeport because of the need to spread 4 teams from other conferences over the four brackets....so what manipulation will be involved down the line??

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

Nope... UCONN does not play Baylor this year.

 

[Vowelguy]

When the seedings came out a week ago, we were #11. Since then:

#3 NC State loss

#4 Tenn loss (almost 2)

#6 Indiana loss

#7 Texas loss

#8 Arizona loss

#10 Iowa State loss

#13 Baylor loss

#16 Kansas State 2 losses

So ?

 

[MilfordHusky]

So ?

So ?

So obviously other teams are slipping as their win-loss record deteriorates. If that happens enough, they can slip behind us in seedings. I assume you know seeding will change. The question is, how much is enough for UConn to move up to get a stronger resume and higher seed?

 

[Stymie]

“Opinions are like......”
All chips are in and speculation pretty much ends on Sunday at noon against Tennessee.
Close win—moderate boost
Big win—-Huge boost
Close loss-marginal to moderate negative
Blowout loss (ala Oregon)—MAYBE a #4 seed.
UCONN Desperately needs a win Sunday.
JMHO

 

[The CDR-Ret]

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

Baylor is NOT on UCONN's schedule, so they can lose as many games as they want....

 

[Vowelguy]

So obviously other teams are slipping as their win-loss record deteriorates. If that happens enough, they can slip behind us in seedings. I assume you know seeding will change. The question is, how much is enough for UConn to move up to get a stronger resume and higher seed?

You don't know that they're slipping. Any more that teams winning are rising. A close loss to Notre Dame or Oklahoma is likely not any worse than a modest win over Providence.

And again, teams are evaluated on their entire resume, and only on a few occasions. So the committee is not responding to "1-2 games happened since we last ranked." Instead, there are weeks of data good/bad, and a revisiting of the entire season.

The committee doesn't move teams up based on inertia. You need to do something worthy. Beating Tenn would be one. Crushing DePaul in a rematch (showing that the teams has improved) is another. But that's about it.

 

[MilfordHusky]

You don't know that they're slipping. Any more that teams winning are rising. A close loss to Notre Dame or Oklahoma is likely not any worse than a modest win over Providence.

And again, teams are evaluated on their entire resume, and only on a few occasions. So the committee is not responding to "1-2 games happened since we last ranked." Instead, there are weeks of data good/bad, and a revisiting of the entire season.

The committee doesn't move teams up based on inertia. You need to do something worthy. Beating Tenn would be one. Crushing DePaul in a rematch (showing that the teams has improved) is another. But that's about it.

I don't know what the committee is doing, but a resume of 18-4, for example, would not be as strong as a resume of 18-2, after Tennessee hopefully loses to Florida and UConn. A single game doesn't do much, but 2-3 losses should, in my opinion.

Are you saying the first reveal is going to be the final seedings with little to no change? Creme--who is not the committee--has moved teams based on a single game. He probably knows the committee's thinking as much as anyone.

 

[BostonBay]

Its all about the Benjamins. A Paige-Returned UConn team will be in Bridgeport, no matter what their record is...

 

[FairView]

Its all about the Benjamins. A Paige-Returned UConn team will be in Bridgeport, no matter what their record is...

I agree money plays a big part, but if Bridgeport is already nearly sold out (I bought my tix the day they went on sale) are they putting UConn there for the hot dog and pretzel sales?

 

[CL82]

UConn is not going to be a 1.
0.0000% chance.

Oh I don’t know. I hear we have an in at ESPN who fixes stuff like that for us.

 

[visitingcock]

I don't know what the committee is doing, but a resume of 18-4, for example, would not be as strong as a resume of 18-2, after Tennessee hopefully loses to Florida and UConn. A single game doesn't do much, but 2-3 losses should, in my opinion.

Are you saying the first reveal is going to be the final seedings with little to no change? Creme--who is not the committee--has moved teams based on a single game. He probably knows the committee's thinking as much as anyone.

as of TODAY. the Net (which is a guide for the Committee) is:

	Team	Record	NET Rank	NET Delta
	South Carolina	21 - 1	1
	North Carolina State	20 - 3	2
	Stanford	17 - 3	3
	Louisville	20 - 2	4
	North Carolina	17 - 4	5
	Texas	15 - 4	6
	Arizona	15 - 3	7
	Connecticut	14 - 4	8	+4
	Oregon	13 - 5	9	+1
	Iowa State	19 - 3	10	+1
	Michigan	19 - 2	11	+5
	Notre Dame	18 - 4	12	+6
	BYU	18 - 2	13	-4
	Tennessee	19 - 3	14	-6

 

[Tonyc]

Man oh man. The NCAA is a business. They are not going to move their largest income provider out of their region. Stanford will be in Spokane with Oregon. NC State will be in Bridgeport with UCOnn. Those of you who have been around for the past 20 years always saw Tenn close to home. Why? Because they draw and money talks and pays their salaries and bonuses. UConn will be in Bridgeport. Bridgeport in the past got more for a ticket then any other place. The teams whose fans come out will be put in regions close to their fan base so the NCAA can make money. I looked into doing a Christmas Holiday tournament and I was told the arena wanted $25,000 up front. It would be an 8 team 4 day tournament. The teams wanted guaranteed money to show up. Think about it. The NCAA pays for most of that if not all. Im not sure how much they pay for. Do you think sending Tenn and UConn to far away regions is business smart??? I dont care what people are saying now when the NCAA meets they will be looking at the best way to make money and the best way to seed teams to make it fair. If UConn is a 2 or 3 seed the number 1 seed which I believe will be NC State should not care about where theyre playing if theyre that good. You guys know my thoughts on UConn with Paige back and up to speed. We wont loose.

 

[ConnMotors]

@visitingcock ... good info...and such a big wager!! BUT, I must point out that if we assume the bold sentence above as you wrote it, UCONN would be a FOUR loss team (not 5 loss) ... just as they are now.

The dominoes are falling one by one... and as they do UCONN's "ranking" by the committee could/should(?) change for the better... the KEY question is how does that impact the brackets... the committee said after the first reveal that UCONN is not in Bridgeport because of the need to spread 4 teams from other conferences over the four brackets....so what manipulation will be involved down the line??

This is where things get out of line. You are in a tournament. You play teams. Chances are you may have to play a team in your conference. Who gives a damn? Put them where they rank and not because the others teams have already play each other once, twice or three times.

I know that this is CIAC or high school hoops. But how often do teams from the same league have to play each other in the First Round? Very often.

If they make it so conference teams can't play each other it should end in the Sweet 16.

 

[sun]

Man oh man. The NCAA is a business. They are not going to move their largest income provider out of their region. Stanford will be in Spokane with Oregon. NC State will be in Bridgeport with UCOnn. Those of you who have been around for the past 20 years always saw Tenn close to home. Why? Because they draw and money talks and pays their salaries and bonuses. UConn will be in Bridgeport. Bridgeport in the past got more for a ticket then any other place. The teams whose fans come out will be put in regions close to their fan base so the NCAA can make money. I looked into doing a Christmas Holiday tournament and I was told the arena wanted $25,000 up front. It would be an 8 team 4 day tournament. The teams wanted guaranteed money to show up. Think about it. The NCAA pays for most of that if not all. Im not sure how much they pay for. Do you think sending Tenn and UConn to far away regions is business smart??? I dont care what people are saying now when the NCAA meets they will be looking at the best way to make money and the best way to seed teams to make it fair. If UConn is a 2 or 3 seed the number 1 seed which I believe will be NC State should not care about where theyre playing if theyre that good. You guys know my thoughts on UConn with Paige back and up to speed. We wont loose.

You & everyone else have a point about the money, but if the committee thinks that UConn will be eliminated rather quickly then the money won't be as much of an incentive to keep UConn at home.
There's a lot of good teams that appear to be able to bring UConn down, and their fans will also pay to watch them try to do it.
The Tennessee game may be a key indicator, as well as any upcoming games against DePaul.
Right now all we can count on is getting a berth.

 

[eebmg]

I understand you and Uconn don't want another season down the drain. I would prefer an accurate assessment by Geno of the probability of Uconn getting past the elite 8 with and without a fully functional Paige--AND then an assessment of how fully functional Paige will be when she returns.
I would be willing to forgo post season this year for an NC next year if that's what it takes to have a fully well, fully healthy, Paige, Azzi, Dorka, Muhl, Caroline, Edwards etc. Get fully recovered. There will always be another title to seek. The freshmen/sophs have never run this hard and this long. Maybe some non running physical training during the off time will do them well.

Your guess is as good as Geno's