Seedings UConn Bridgeport or Spokane?

[npignatjr]

I’m not buying the argument that UCONN is not in the top 8 by the end of the year. There is a big drop off in talent and execution outside the top 2/3 teams. Just watched the 1st half of Michigan/Indiana game- two of these “good” teams. They are very flawed groups- both of whom must be missing the starting point guards. Michigan had something like 22 TOs and 4 assists. Yuck.

Nether missing guards

 

[visitingcock]

UConn as a 3 seed - probable.

UConn as a 2 seed - improbable but possible.

In my opinion UConn must beat Tennessee to have a shot at a two seed. By beating them, you increase your power and decrease theirs. This game is critical!

There are 5 teams that are almost locks to be in the top 8: SCar, Stanford, NC State, Louisville and Michigan.

That leaves 3 spots: you would, by beating Tennessee, make yourself a contender for one of those three slots. Assume SCar beats Tennessee in regular season and Tennessee loses a game in the SEC tourney. You would have equal records, head-to-head and they would have the worst loss (Auburn)

That still leaves a slew of contenders for the 3 open slots and one of them will more than likely be the top team from the Big 12-whoever that may be. Down to two slots. So it means you have to hope the cards fall right to surpass four out of Arizona, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Number 2 Big 12 team.

Beat Tennessee! Win out. Lose a game and you are out of the two seed contention.

Just my opinion based on how things stand now.

 

[Stymie]

And don’t forget the major heat down by Oregon.
Slim chance for #2 now.
Don’t win out, virtually zilch.

 

[WFFL]

UConn as a 3 seed - probable.

UConn as a 2 seed - improbable but possible.

In my opinion UConn must beat Tennessee to have a shot at a two seed. By beating them, you increase your power and decrease theirs. This game is critical!

There are 5 teams that are almost locks to be in the top 8: SCar, Stanford, NC State, Louisville and Michigan.

That leaves 3 spots: you would, by beating Tennessee, make yourself a contender for one of those three slots. Assume SCar beats Tennessee in regular season and Tennessee loses a game in the SEC tourney. You would have equal records, head-to-head and they would have the worst loss (Auburn)

That still leaves a slew of contenders for the 3 open slots and one of them will more than likely be the top team from the Big 12-whoever that may be. Down to two slots. So it means you have to hope the cards fall right to surpass four out of Arizona, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Number 2 Big 12 team.

Beat Tennessee! Win out. Lose a game and you are out of the two seed contention.

Just my opinion based on how things stand now.

Same Records but different SOS ....

 

[nwhoopfan]

View attachment 72872Bad air quality

Say what? That's gotta be from fire smoke. You can't really blame Spokane's air quality when most of the Western U.S. (and Canada) has been on fire just about every summer recently. But fire season doesn't start until well after March (maybe in California it does, but not up north).

 

[Vowelguy]

NC State just lost to ND. That helps our SOS and brings NC State back closer to us.

Unless nc st loses a bunch more games there is no way they end up behind UConn.

 

[Blakeon18]

I don't see a whole lot of difference between a 2 seed and a 3. Getting the first weekend at home
is nice. Being in Bridgeport for the second weekend would be really nice. Getting healthy would be the max nicest.
2 would play 3 in a sweet sixteen game anyway if they get that far. #2 would get a home uniform...whoop-de-doo.

 

[Stymie]

NC State could help the cause by first losing to Georgia Tech

 

[Ralph]

It seems to me losses to top teams will not be killers. One loss to an unranked team, hey every team can have an off night, or the opponent had a great night. Wins against top teams matter big time. So last night ND beats NC State, and they are 17-4. Georgia tech is 17-4 and they beat us. Our best wins were against ND and then non top 25 DePaul. I think we need to beat Tenn to get another top 25 win. When was the last time we had only two top 25 wins???? If we lose to Tenn and win out after that I can see a 4 seed, unless when Paige comes back we get back to our 102-38 blowouts of past years. If we keep winning BE games by under 20, or worse under 10, we are not going to look like we deserve a 2 or even a 3 seed. You can win a few close ones, but we need some blowouts to show we have our moxie back. I hope Dorka is back fast. And Paige not a lot longer after that. But if Dorka is still in a boot tonight and Paige is still in a brace, I am not optimistic. Remember in the past you looked at the NCAA team statistics and UConn was in the top 10 in most, and often the top. Take a look this year at margin of victory, turnovers, assist to turnover ratio, shooting percentages, you name it. Seems like we only lost Anna from a final 4 team, we picked up Azzi, Caroline, AD and Dorka we should be much better, even with Aubrey injured. Even with Paige in the early games we did not seem as good as last year. Not sure what has happened.

 

[ConnMotors]

As mentioned in a previous post in this thread there will be a domino effect. That started with NC State taking a hit against Notre Dame. For now that should push them into the #4 One seed. Louisville lucked out. UConn has to win out. That means beating Tennessee on Sunday. Two good games tonight to keep an eye out on. #25 Kansas State is at #11 Iowa State and then #18 Oklahoma is #9 Baylor. Tomorrow most of the Top-25 teams are in action. But they play lower conference teams. Will we have a couple of upsets? I hope so. To Florida State at NC State; to Florida hosting Tennessee; to Minnesota at Indiana; to Vandy at Georgia; I'm wishing you my best. Good luck.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Pretty sure we can beat Tenn without Paige if we just take care of the basketball. The unforced errors have to be an area of emphasis with Geno and his staff right now. At some point I believe the players are going to respond and start getting a handle on it.

Yes the Tenn game of is of incredible importance now, as a win could get us back in Bridgeport as a number 4 seed. It is a home game after all, and with the Huskies having recently decided to "keep going", I really like their chances of emerging from hell a week from tomorrow in Hartford.

To beat Tenn UCONN must improve rebounding. Tenn is a really good rebounding team. However, they appear to be susceptible to defensive pressure. Question is does UCONN guards have the quickness to exploited Tenn pressure weakness.

 

[ConnMotors]

As mentioned in a previous post in this thread there will be a domino effect. That started with NC State taking a hit against Notre Dame. For now that should push them into the #4 One seed. Louisville lucked out. UConn has to win out. That means beating Tennessee on Sunday. Two good games tonight to keep an eye out on. #25 Kansas State is at #11 Iowa State and then #18 Oklahoma is #9 Baylor. Tomorrow most of the Top-25 teams are in action. But they play lower conference teams. Will we have a couple of upsets? I hope so. To Florida State at NC State; to Florida hosting Tennessee; to Minnesota at Indiana; to Vandy at Georgia; I'm wishing you my best. Good luck.

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

 

[Purchase1]

UConn as a 3 seed - probable.

UConn as a 2 seed - improbable but possible.

In my opinion UConn must beat Tennessee to have a shot at a two seed. By beating them, you increase your power and decrease theirs. This game is critical!

There are 5 teams that are almost locks to be in the top 8: SCar, Stanford, NC State, Louisville and Michigan.

That leaves 3 spots: you would, by beating Tennessee, make yourself a contender for one of those three slots. Assume SCar beats Tennessee in regular season and Tennessee loses a game in the SEC tourney. You would have equal records, head-to-head and they would have the worst loss (Auburn)

That still leaves a slew of contenders for the 3 open slots and one of them will more than likely be the top team from the Big 12-whoever that may be. Down to two slots. So it means you have to hope the cards fall right to surpass four out of Arizona, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana, and the Number 2 Big 12 team.

Beat Tennessee! Win out. Lose a game and you are out of the two seed contention.

Just my opinion based on how things stand now.

Agree with this assessment!!!

 

[SLY63]

I am less concerned with their as I am their bracket/location

 

[Vowelguy]

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

That’s not how it works.

And it’s not a day to day thing.
Whole resume.

 

[Plebe]

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

Why are you calling Baylor the #9 seed? In the committee's "reveal" one week ago, Baylor was #13.

I assume you're referring to the AP poll, which is completely irrelevant to NCAAT seeding.

And besides, one single loss to a good team will not preclude a team from rising up the committee's ranking. Especially with over a month of games still to be played.

 

[visitingcock]

Why are you calling Baylor the #9 seed? In the committee's "reveal" one week ago, Baylor was #13.

I assume you're referring to the AP poll, which is completely irrelevant to NCAAT seeding.

And besides, one single loss to a good team will not preclude a team from rising up the committee's ranking. Especially with over a month of games still to be played.

I don't think Baylor will sniff a two seed - or even three.

I know you don't agree with my theories of "conference politics" but they form a basis for this belief..


ACC probable two top 8 seeds.
PAC probable two top 8 seeds.
Big 12 probable one top 8 seed.
Big Ten probable one top 8 seed.
SEC probable two top 8 seeds. Tennessee could fall to a three with a UConn win and an SEC "upset" and two losses to SCar. (here is where UConn could move up)

In my opinion, Baylor is about number 4 in the Big 12. Their champ will be probably be I-State (whose two losses without the Joen's sisters are forgivable.) They will probably get a two seed. Oklahoma and Texas will probably be three seeds. I predict Baylor as a four.

eam	Big 12 Record	Pct.	Home	Away	Streak	Overall Record	Pct.	Home	Away	Neutral	Streak
Iowa State	8-2	0.800	4-1	4-1	W3	19-3	0.864	11-1	5-2	3-0	W3
Oklahoma	8-2	0.800	4-1	4-1	W3	19-3	0.864	11-1	6-1	2-1	W3
Texas	5-3	0.625	2-2	3-1	L1	15-4	0.789	8-2	6-2	1-0	L1
Baylor	5-3	0.625	2-1	3-2	L1	15-5	0.750	8-1	4-3	3-1	L1
Kansas State	6-4	0.600	4-1	2-3	L1	16-6	0.727	12-1	4-5	0-0	L1
Kansas	5-4	0.556	2-2	3-2	W2	14-5	0.737	9-2	4-2	1-1	W2

 

[Plebe]

I don't think Baylor will sniff a two seed - or even three.

I know you don't agree with my theories of "conference politics" but they form a basis for this belief..


ACC probable two top 8 seeds.
PAC probable two top 8 seeds.
Big 12 probable one top 8 seed.
Big Ten probable one top 8 seed.
SEC probable two top 8 seeds. Tennessee could fall to a three with a UConn win and an SEC "upset" and two losses to SCar. (here is where UConn could move up)

In my opinion, Baylor is about number 4 in the Big 12. Their champ will be probably be I-State (whose two losses without the Joen's sisters are forgivable.) They will probably get a two seed. Oklahoma and Texas will probably be three seeds. I predict Baylor as a four.

Your predictions may or may not be borne out, but it'll be based on a team-by-team analysis. Slots aren't allotted to conferences in the way that FIFA allots World Cup bids to the continental federations. There is absolutely zero evidence that the committee ever thinks along these lines.

We already know that the committee had Baylor #13 as of Jan. 27, so hardly a stretch to predict a 4 seed for them.

Tennessee is unlikely to drop as low as a 3 seed unless they lose multiple games to lesser teams (not SC or even UConn). But certainly, a lot can happen in the next five weeks.

One more thing: the conference standings do not necessarily reflect how the committee will rank conference foes relative to each other. Notice how Texas, despite not leading in the Big 12 standings, was ranked by the committee higher than any other Big 12 team, and that's largely because of their very strong nonconference win at Stanford.

 

[visitingcock]

Your predictions may or may not be borne out, but it'll be based on a team-by-team analysis. Slots aren't allotted to conferences in the way that FIFA allots World Cup bids to the continental federations. There is absolutely zero evidence that the committee ever thinks along these lines.

We already know that the committee had Baylor #13 as of Jan. 27, so hardly a stretch to predict a 4 seed for them.

Tennessee is unlikely to drop as low as a 3 seed unless they lose multiple games to lesser teams (not SC or even UConn). But certainly, a lot can happen in the next five weeks.

One more thing: the conference standings do not necessarily reflect how the committee will rank conference foes relative to each other. Notice how Texas, despite not leading in the Big 12 standings, was ranked by the committee higher than any other Big 12 team, and that's largely because of their very strong nonconference win at Stanford.

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

 

[Plebe]

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

The raw number of losses is close to irrelevant. BYU is a 1-loss team and didn't even crack the committee's top 16. Losses to Stanford and South Carolina will not lessen TN's resume one bit as a prospective 2 seed.

Even if UConn "jumps" Tennessee, that doesn't mean that TN necessarily drops to a 3 seed. None of these outcomes will happen in a vacuum. Much will depend on how all the other teams in the mix for a 2 or 3 seed (Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Iowa State, etc.) fare by comparison.

 

[visitingcock]

The raw number of losses is close to irrelevant. BYU is a 1-loss team and didn't even crack the committee's top 16. Losses to Stanford and South Carolina will not lessen TN's resume one bit as a prospective 2 seed. Nor will UConn's losses to SCar and Louisville. Tennessee's quad 2 loss to Auburn will.

Even if UConn "jumps" Tennessee, that doesn't mean that TN necessarily drops to a 3 seed. None of these outcomes will happen in a vacuum. Much will depend on how all the other teams in the mix for a 2 or 3 seed (Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Iowa State, etc.) fare by comparison.

Of course. (Add Oklahoma. Indeed other will play roles as well in the mix). Michigan is almost set to be a two.

 

[MilfordHusky]

When the seedings came out a week ago, we were #11. Since then:

#3 NC State loss

#4 Tenn loss (almost 2)

#6 Indiana loss

#7 Texas loss

#8 Arizona loss

#10 Iowa State loss

#13 Baylor loss

#16 Kansas State 2 losses

 

[willtalk]

Well another domino fell last night while we UConn survived. Oklahoma pulls off an upset on the road to defeat Baylor. So #9 Seed Baylor gets hit and they will move down in the rankings. Now we need to take care of business on Sunday and throughout the rest of the regular season. Then UC will wind up being the #2 Seed in Bridgeport.

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

 

[jchusky]

what happens to other teams is irrelevant, Uconn will be judged by winning or losing to Tenn. If they lose then they will not get favoritism by the committee. Big East games do nothing, they just hurt if you lose.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Let's assume they lose a regular season game to SCar, one SEC tournament game (maybe SCar again) and one to UConn. They will be a five loss team. Let's assume that UConn runs the table. They would also be a five loss team with the head-to-head. Tennesee's worst loss would be to a quad 2 team, Auburn. UConn's worst loss would be to Georgia Tech who could end up in the top 4 seeds. Yes, Tenn will have more Quad 1 wins - but my money (a whole nickle) would be on UConn jumping them.

@visitingcock ... good info...and such a big wager!! BUT, I must point out that if we assume the bold sentence above as you wrote it, UCONN would be a FOUR loss team (not 5 loss) ... just as they are now.

The dominoes are falling one by one... and as they do UCONN's "ranking" by the committee could/should(?) change for the better... the KEY question is how does that impact the brackets... the committee said after the first reveal that UCONN is not in Bridgeport because of the need to spread 4 teams from other conferences over the four brackets....so what manipulation will be involved down the line??

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

Nope... UCONN does not play Baylor this year.

 

[Vowelguy]

When the seedings came out a week ago, we were #11. Since then:

#3 NC State loss

#4 Tenn loss (almost 2)

#6 Indiana loss

#7 Texas loss

#8 Arizona loss

#10 Iowa State loss

#13 Baylor loss

#16 Kansas State 2 losses

So ?

 

[MilfordHusky]

So ?

So ?

So obviously other teams are slipping as their win-loss record deteriorates. If that happens enough, they can slip behind us in seedings. I assume you know seeding will change. The question is, how much is enough for UConn to move up to get a stronger resume and higher seed?

 

[Stymie]

“Opinions are like......”
All chips are in and speculation pretty much ends on Sunday at noon against Tennessee.
Close win—moderate boost
Big win—-Huge boost
Close loss-marginal to moderate negative
Blowout loss (ala Oregon)—MAYBE a #4 seed.
UCONN Desperately needs a win Sunday.
JMHO

 

[The CDR-Ret]

You are perceiving this entirely wrong. UConn does not want any teams on their schedule to lose to other teams. All that loss does is diminish Baylor in the eyes of the committee. That would make a victory over Baylor less valuable and a loss more detrimental. This is not the Baylor of the past and since it is one of the only top teams left on UConns schedule they need them to end up ranked as high as possible. Except for perhaps SC and Stanford, the entire WCBB field is in a state of upheaval. Name recognition and past records are beginning to mean very little. This makes strength of schedule far more important. than ever. This is also why UConn needs to root for Baylors success rather than for them to lose being that they are their highest level team left on their schedule if they win or lose their game against them.

Baylor is NOT on UCONN's schedule, so they can lose as many games as they want....