Rumor- UCONN Pursuing ACC Membership?

[CL82]

Gee….thanks for clearing that up.

You’re welcome. I do what I can.

So maybe we can now drop the whole “they’re going after Oregon for the Nike money” thing?

 

[uconndogs]

You’re welcome. I do what I can.

So maybe we can now drop the whole “they’re going after Oregon for the Nike money” thing?

It’s nuanced and I can tell from your post that won’t be a particular strength of yours

 

[CL82]

It’s nuanced and I can tell from your post that won’t be a particular strength of yours

Lol, well, when you come up with some thing, feel free to post it. I’ll try to follow along as best I can.

 

[UConnJim]

Interview with former ESPN President John Skipper who negotiated the ACC media contract. He says that the ACC should merge with the PAC (take eight schools) because it would add 15 million subscribers to the ACC Network and they could probably force a renegotiation of the media contract. Starts at around 35:00:

Wow, that is the old paradigm thinking by Skipper. The number of TV households that subscribe to pay TV is in a secular decline (ESPN subscriber count is down 25% in 11 years do to cord cutting) so that would only be a ST help to revenues which would probably be offset by a crazy increase in travel costs. And, if conference networks had to be paid for individually and not in the cable bundle, how many would subscribe to an ACC/Pac 12 channel?

 

[Exit 4]

Creighton does well with tv ratings…

Wow, that is the old paradigm thinking by Skipper. The number of TV households that subscribe to pay TV is in a secular decline (ESPN subscriber count is down 25% in 11 years do to cord cutting) so that would only be a ST help to revenues which would probably be offset by a crazy increase in travel costs. And, if conference networks had to be paid for individually and not in the cable bundle, how many would subscribe to an ACC/Pac 12 channel?

Cable boxes of today or of the past still represent a quick shorthand proxy for economic opportunity / market size.

 

[ZooCougar]

I don't think the B1G would touch FSU or Clemson with a ten foot pole. The B1G would consider UNC and UVA. The SEC might consider all four, but has repeatedly rejected FSU and Clemson who wanted to join for decades. It took Missouri over them for example.

They are only going to add schools that will increase the payout and add value. I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze with UVA and UNC.

 

[noeynox]

For quite some time I have been a proponent of seeking ACC membership. However, the more I read about their situation, including articles like these, it gives me serious doubt that the ACC is a better situation for UConn athletics. This FSU/Clemson/Miami football cabal is just not a good fit for us culturally. Maybe they will get things sorted out and figure out a way to keep the conference together, but I doubt it. These FSU people sound like greedy egomaniacs.

You want to be in the club. If there is a shakeup 13 years down the line hopefully you're in a better position then others in the club. That's how you approach such a scenario.

 

[noeynox]

“On the surface, FSU has no leverage. Below the surface, FSU has no leverage. You don't just tear up and redo a 10-figure contract with 13 years remaining until its expiry.”

So it cost Texas and Oklahoma 50 million each to get out of the GOR. ONE YEAR EARLY.

I'm no math wizard but using that number and the 120 million exit fee is like 770 million. That's your starting number FSU. What say you @billybud ?

 

[How Sway?!]

Wow, that is the old paradigm thinking by Skipper. The number of TV households that subscribe to pay TV is in a secular decline (ESPN subscriber count is down 25% in 11 years do to cord cutting) so that would only be a ST help to revenues which would probably be offset by a crazy increase in travel costs. And, if conference networks had to be paid for individually and not in the cable bundle, how many would subscribe to an ACC/Pac 12 channel?

Yeah but the ACCs issue is that they are getting paid 60 cents on a product that is worth $1, and they will keep getting paid that amount for the next 13 years.

By merging with PAC 10 and getting to renegotiate the contract at market value, they will get that extra revenue they are currently missing out on. Sure, there'll be more mouths to feed but there'll also be more food to share.

 

[Ldandy]

Exactly. And it was working fine until everyone started chasing fools gold. Live and learn. Miami won 11, 12, 12, 11 games its last 4 years in the Big East. It has won 10 games just once in the 19 years since. That's a shame.

The article posted at a FSU fan site has tons of comments. Message boards all over the place all have the same questions, comments and concerns, but no answers.

"Something has to change:" FSU AD Michael Alford talks ACC financial outlook

Florida State is at risk of falling behind financially in the world of college athletics

www.tomahawknation.com

The primary issue that divided the Big East Conference the first time around could easily manifest itself again in your new hypothetical. Eventually an NC State, VPI, or Louisville might ask why the hell are we sharing revenue with Butler, St Johns and Depaul? Creighton and Butler are going to say we're basketball schools. We're never going to have football teams. Why are we bogged down by this arrangement again? The cycle begins anew...

 

[Fishy]

I don't think the BiG is done with the PAC. I think they grab UCal and UWash in the next 2-3 years. The more I think about it the more convinced I am that the BiG didn't want to be the villain that obliterated the PAC in one fell swoop. This way the PAC can backfill in an orderly way, assuming the BigXII doesn't finish them off first.

Would put the odds of that at zero.

I think it will be Stanford instead of Cal, otherwise agree with the overall premise.

Is there a number less than zero?

Big Ten is really good at playing the long game. The long game is not the leftovers from the PAC12.

Certainly could be. Might grab Oregon to complete the PNW and grab that Nike money.

They would need to make Phil Knight promise to live forever.

 

[Fishy]

So it cost Texas and Oklahoma 50 million each to get out of the GOR. ONE YEAR EARLY.

I'm no math wizard but using that number and the 120 million exit fee is like 770 million. That's your starting number FSU. What say you @billybud ?

Bingo.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They are only going to add schools that will increase the payout and add value. I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze with UVA and UNC.

Neither are FSU or Clemson. My guess is the SEC and B1G have no incentive to do anything right now. The leftover PAC teams and FSU and Clemson can cry about it all they want. SEC contract is up soon, but OU and UT was the move for them, I think they are done. They can watch the rabble scramble and slowly fall behind.

 

[Hondo 77]

Interesting. A hybrid conference with a group of mostly private Catholic Basketball Schools and East Coast Football Schools including Cuse, BCU, Pitt VPI, and UConn working together. Where have I seen this before?

Yeah, and I bet that worked out well.

 

[Kolumbo]

The primary issue that divided the Big East Conference the first time around could easily manifest itself again in your new hypothetical. Eventually an NC State, VPI, or Louisville might ask why the hell are we sharing revenue with Butler, St Johns and Depaul? Creighton and Butler are going to say we're basketball schools. We're never going to have football teams. Why are we bogged down by this arrangement again? The cycle begins anew...

True. It's not ideal but it is something. The Beast grew and no one was prepared to handle the issues, or they weren't expecting them. Now the former big east programs are floundering and the current Big East would do well to expand. SIze matters. NC State and VPI will realize that sharing basketball revenue with Xavier and Creighton and SJU makes sense because they'll be in a premier basketball conference playing in NYC, Philly, Chicago. Or NC State and VPI can go it alone when the ACC blows up.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

If Florida State, Clemson leave the ACC, how about UConn and second school, Tulane or Navy, going to ACC!

 

[UConnJim]

Yeah but the ACCs issue is that they are getting paid 60 cents on a product that is worth $1, and they will keep getting paid that amount for the next 13 years.

By merging with PAC 10 and getting to renegotiate the contract at market value, they will get that extra revenue they are currently missing out on. Sure, there'll be more mouths to feed but there'll also be more food to share.

So, the Pac 12 may get $20 to $25 million in media revenues in their new contract and the ACC gets $20 to $25 million but merging the 2 conferences will result in a $30 to $40 million payday per school? The ACC and Pac 12 get less than the Big 10 and SEC because their TV ratings are well below the P2. FSU and Clemson are arguing that their TV ratings for their games are similar to the P2 and they deserve more money either through unequal revenue sharing or by moving to the P2. And, the increase in travel cost could be >$5 million per school per year so why would the ACC merge with the Pac 12 for a modest potential pay increase?

 

[uconndogs]

Would put the odds of that at zero.

You don't think the BiG finds the Bay area and Seattle markets attractive? Hard to see schools like Stamford and UWash as "leftovers".

 

[billybud]

"I'm no math wizard but using that number and the 120 million exit fee is like 770 million. That's your starting number FSU. What say you @billybud ?"

I have always thought that the GOR is almost impossible to challenge because of its simplicity of language and cost...

There are only two "outs" that I could forsee...

1...the GOR specifically states that the Member Institutions grant all rights as necessary for the conference to meet the contractual obligations expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement....

........If ESPN and the ACC's agreement changes to not require a particular team...that team is released from the GOR. There are scenarios where the conference might receive the same monies from ESPN in a renegotiated ESPN agreement. If ESPN wanted to add teams to the ACC and switch a team to its other property, the SEC. Much less incentive for ESPN to let a team go to the B1G..a competitor's property.

2....If one wants to challenge the legality under Florida law of the resigning of the GOR.. ( Swofford very purposely came to Tallahassee and met personally with each BOT member to persuade them to sign the GOR). This end around of the Florida law that requires open meetings of the BOT might be a chink.

 

[Fishy]

You don't think the BiG finds the Bay area and Seattle markets attractive? Hard to see schools like Stamford and UWash as "leftovers".

And yet there they are, struggling to get any network to put a decent offer in front of them.

I don't think the Big Ten is going to want to commit schools to two west coast trips a season.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

And yet there they are, struggling to get any network to put a decent offer in front of them.

I don't think the Big Ten is going to want to commit schools to two west coast trips a season.

So, you think the B1G game plan is to leave USC/UCLA out on a west coast island?

 

[Fishy]

So, you think the B1G game plan is to leave USC/UCLA out on a west coast island?

There's two of them. It's a nice island.

They're gonna pay them $75M each a year to live on that island in a few years.

Highly unlikely that they're gonna find an extra $150M a year to buy them playmates.

 

[History Geek]

I'm tired of this sheet so I am making the decisions. ACC members will all make like Fleetwood Mac and go their own way and dissolve the conference. A very solid football conference and it's not like anyone else is winning a championship anyway. And hoops, forgetaboutit!

The result: 20 member $$ conference with 10 basketball and 10 all in. maybe add in Army and Navy for football only. who's with me.

1	PC	UCONN
2	SJU	Cuse
3	SHU	BCU
4	Nova	Pitt
5	Georgetown	VaTech
6	DePaul	NC State
7	Marquette	Duke
8	Butler	Wake
9	Xavier	GaTech
10	Creighton	Louisville

That would be fun.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

There's two of them. It's a nice island.

They're gonna pay them $75M each a year to live on that island in a few years.

Highly unlikely that they're gonna find an extra $150M a year to buy them playmates.

Or they agree with OR/WA to take a reduced rate like they did with RU?

 

[CL82]

Or they agree with OR/WA to take a reduced rate like they did with RU?

Rutgers gets a full share in the Big 10. It was used to pay the buy in and the repayment of a loan so the net to them was lower during the transition. I believe that all of that is done now though.