OT: Realignment?

[UConnJim]

Inside UH’s fight to join the Big 12

Over the last three months, the Houston Cougars joined a new conference, reeled off 11 wins in a row, and ended the regular season ranked 16th in the two major polls. UH is now preparing for its date with destiny in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. Before signing the Big 12...

gocoogs.com

I think the most interesting point in that article was that Texas and Oklahoma make up 75% of the Big 12's football TV ratings.

 

[How Sway?!]

I think the most interesting point in that article was that Texas and Oklahoma make up 75% of the Big 12's football TV ratings.

And there are still people in this board that think the new B12 is gonna get more than $20 million/school in their new TV deal. They'll be lucky to hit $15 million

 

[Slasher]

And there are still people in this board that think the new B12 is gonna get more than $20 million/school in their new TV deal. They'll be lucky to hit $15 million

The Big 12 will be just fine. BYU + Cincinnati will negate some of the loss of OU and Texas. Cincinnati has averaged 1.47M viewers this year and BYU is just below that. Remember TV viewers are greatly skewed by channels, no OU and Texas means more other teams games on FOX and ABC instead of FS1 and ESPN2 and ESPNU which get far fewer viewers.

They will likely take a small haircut, but it's still going to be vastly ahead of the G5. Also, the Big 12 is gaining inventory (12 teams vs 10 teams.) Who knows what the specific payout will be, but it will be at least double the old AAC deal of around 7M.

 

[upstater]

The Big 12 will be just fine. BYU + Cincinnati will negate some of the loss of OU and Texas. Cincinnati has averaged 1.47M viewers this year and BYU is just below that. Remember TV viewers are greatly skewed by channels, no OU and Texas means more other teams games on FOX and ABC instead of FS1 and ESPN2 and ESPNU which get far fewer viewers.

They will likely take a small haircut, but it's still going to be vastly ahead of the G5. Also, the Big 12 is gaining inventory (12 teams vs 10 teams.) Who knows what the specific payout will be, but it will be at least double the old AAC deal of around 7M.

I bet they'll have a huge huge drop.

 

[Jbirdp5]

The Big 12 will be just fine. BYU + Cincinnati will negate some of the loss of OU and Texas. Cincinnati has averaged 1.47M viewers this year and BYU is just below that. Remember TV viewers are greatly skewed by channels, no OU and Texas means more other teams games on FOX and ABC instead of FS1 and ESPN2 and ESPNU which get far fewer viewers.

They will likely take a small haircut, but it's still going to be vastly ahead of the G5. Also, the Big 12 is gaining inventory (12 teams vs 10 teams.) Who knows what the specific payout will be, but it will be at least double the old AAC deal of around 7M.

Comparing Cincinnati and byu to OU and Texas is like comparing night and day. 5 million per team per year is not a small haircut it’s substantial. I also thing the extra teams may hurt them and not help them, more slices of the pie won’t be a good thing.

 

[CAtlantic]

College football news: Texas, Oklahoma hope to join SEC in 2024 - College Football HQ

College Football HQ

www.si.com

 

[shizzle787]

A little off topic but I fully believe in the next 5-8 years the B1G will raid the ACC for UNC and UVA. UConn and WVU will be the replacements.

 

[XOVERX]

While I would quibble over the word "raid", I agree that the ACC is next major conference to change, but most likely that change is 10 years off or more - closer to the expiration of the GOR.

It's just that I think the ACC move will be initiated by schools within the ACC, not the SEC itself, just as Texas appears to have engineered Texas' move with Oklahoma to the SEC. In other words, I don't think there will be a 2008-style announcement from the B1G (or SEC) saying, "we're open to expansion", which netted the B1G NU.

I think the schools that move out of the ACC will be torn between the B1G and the SEC. So, I'm not sure if UNC and UVA wind up in the B1G or the SEC. Do they want a "northern feel" or a "southern feel"?

While the B1G certainly has a "superior" overall academic composition, the SEC has a solid academic foundation, too: Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, others. Thus, money, NIL, and recruiting in the SEC may be more important to UNC and UVA than money and a deeper academic composition presented by the B1G.

 

[shizzle787]

While I would quibble over the word "raid", I agree that the ACC is next major conference to change, but most likely that change is 10 years off or more - closer to the expiration of the GOR.

It's just that I think the ACC move will be initiated by schools within the ACC, not the SEC itself, just as Texas appears to have engineered Texas' move with Oklahoma to the SEC. In other words, I don't think there will be a 2008-style announcement from the B1G (or SEC) saying, "we're open to expansion", which netted the B1G NU.

I think the schools that move out of the ACC will be torn between the B1G and the SEC. So, I'm not sure if UNC and UVA wind up in the B1G or the SEC. Do they want a "northern feel" or a "southern feel"?

While the B1G certainly has a "superior" overall academic composition, the SEC has a solid academic foundation, too: Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Georgia, others. Thus, money, NIL, and recruiting in the SEC may be more important to UNC and UVA than money and a deeper academic composition presented by the B1G.

The law of diminishing returns suggests that the SEC expanding to 18 (no matter who it is) will likely lower its per school payout.
Once you go past 16, you start to lose some of the big time matchups.

 

[don356]

Comparing Cincinnati and byu to OU and Texas is like comparing night and day. 5 million per team per year is not a small haircut it’s substantial. I also thing the extra teams may hurt them and not help them, more slices of the pie won’t be a good thing.

I don't know. Fickell and Cincy have some serious momentum right now. His abilities to identify and develop players coupled with the level of guys he's got rolling in now, and he has them where he says he wanted and that was being a top 10 program. I don't think the new coaches at Texas(Sark) and Oklahoma(Venables) are as good at developing kids as he is, and let's face it nothing takes the steam out of a program like facing an SEC schedule. I get a kick out of the Dude of WV talking about the SEC. Cincy is moving past them and it's evident in recruiting. WV getting an impact kid out of Ohio is a thing of the past. Fickell is almost done with his 23 class in June.

Four-star defensive back Amare Snowden commits to Cincinnati; raises Bearcats to No. 4 overall class

.

247sports.com

Cincinnati 2023 Football Commits

Cincinnati

247sports.com

 

[LoyalFanCT]

A little off topic but I fully believe in the next 5-8 years the B1G will raid the ACC for UNC and UVA. UConn and WVU will be the replacements.

Are we sure UNC and UVA will want to leave the ACC. I could see Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Clemson maybe bolting for the B10 or the SEC. I think UConn will be invited to the ACC or perhaps the B10 in this decade if the football team gets cleaned up.

 

[Jbirdp5]

I don't know. Fickell and Cincy have some serious momentum right now. His abilities to identify and develop players coupled with the level of guys he's got rolling in now, and he has them where he says he wanted and that was being a top 10 program. I don't think the new coaches at Texas(Sark) and Oklahoma(Venables) are as good at developing kids as he is, and let's face it nothing takes the steam out of a program like facing an SEC schedule. I get a kick out of the Dude of WV talking about the SEC. Cincy is moving past them and it's evident in recruiting. WV getting an impact kid out of Ohio is a thing of the past. Fickell is almost done with his 23 class in June.

Four-star defensive back Amare Snowden commits to Cincinnati; raises Bearcats to No. 4 overall class

.

247sports.com

Cincinnati 2023 Football Commits

Cincinnati

247sports.com

Fickell is a great coach, but Texas and Oklahoma are brands in this country that networks etc are willing to pay for. You can’t say that about Cincinnati

 

[UConnJim]

Fickell is a great coach, but Texas and Oklahoma are brands in this country that networks etc are willing to pay for. You can’t say that about Cincinnati

Fickell was rumored to want the Notre Dame job this past year, but it did not open up and I think he would move to a top Big 10 job or Notre Dame if they open up. Although the Big 12 is a step up from the AAC, Cincinnati is a geographical outlier and that will hurt Cincy over time. And, Cincy benefitted from a down AAC in 2021. The Big 12 is a much tougher conference and Cincy will experience more losses.

 

[Slasher]

Fickell was rumored to want the Notre Dame job this past year, but it did not open up and I think he would move to a top Big 10 job or Notre Dame if they open up. Although the Big 12 is a step up from the AAC, Cincinnati is a geographical outlier and that will hurt Cincy over time. And, Cincy benefitted from a down AAC in 2021. The Big 12 is a much tougher conference and Cincy will experience more losses.

Notre Dame was literally open. Freeman got the job as Fickell declined to interview.

 

[UConnJim]

Notre Dame was literally open. Freeman got the job as Fickell declined to interview.

Not what I heard. He wanted it, but Freeman was the choice as they were able to keep both the DC, Freeman, and the OC, Tommy Rees.

 

[Jbirdp5]

Not what I heard. He wanted it, but Freeman was the choice as they were able to keep both the DC, Freeman, and the OC, Tommy Rees.

Regardless of the details on the notre dame job I would agree with you that this is probably not his last stop as a coach, and when he leaves the program will not likely take a step back.

 

[TerryD]

Not what I heard. He wanted it, but Freeman was the choice as they were able to keep both the DC, Freeman, and the OC, Tommy Rees.

ND is really high on Marcus Freeman. He has ND recruiting at #1 for 2023 and #2 for 2024.

He is 36 years old and a dynamite recruiter. ND didn't want to fool around and lose him to someone else.

ND was hoping for stability and saving the 2022 recruiting class after Kelly left.

Fickell's team was in the playoffs and ND pulled the trigger on Freeman rather than wait for Fickell.

 

[Ha Who]

ND is really high on Marcus Freeman. He has ND recruiting at #1 for 2023 and #2 for 2024.

He is 36 years old and a dynamite recruiter. ND didn't want to fool around and lose him to someone else.

ND was hoping for stability and saving the 2022 recruiting class after Kelly left.

Fickell's team was in the playoffs and ND pulled the trigger on Freeman rather than wait for Fickell.

The IBM of college sports speaks

 

[Ldandy]

We'll see how high ND's Fans are on Freeman after they visit Columbus Ohio...

 

[billybud]

Ohio State will be fairly dominant.... their QB recruit driving a free $150,000 Bentley and given a million plus...is a sign of how they will have talent.

 

[BigTenFan]

Ohio State will be fairly dominant.... their QB recruit driving a free $150,000 Bentley and given a million plus...is a sign of how they will have talent.

He decided the 150k Bentley wasn't good enough so he opted for a 200k Mercedes instead

 

[freescooter]

We'll see how high ND's Fans are on Freeman after they visit Columbus Ohio...

I’m not sure there weren‘t a couple of worried looks passed among Irish fans in the second half of the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[Ldandy]

I’m not sure there weren‘t a couple of worried looks passed among Irish fans in the second half of the Fiesta Bowl.

They should be worried. Day's not going to call the dogs off until he's done making a statement in what will be the day's most watched game. It could get out of hand if ND doesn't come ready to play.

 

[freescooter]

Ohio State will be fairly dominant.... their QB recruit driving a free $150,000 Bentley and given a million plus...is a sign of how they will have talent.

At those rates he better deliver or he’ll find himself driving a Yugo in Akron next year. I’m with those who 5hink the NIL stuff is out of hand and is going to eventually lead to its own demise. Most players aren’t as good as they appear coming out of high school, and if most donors won’t want to pay a kid to redshirt or be a b@ckup. Gonna be a mess.

 

[billybud]

OMG...a new thought...the NIL is out of hand.

 

[freescooter]

OMG...a new thought...the NIL is out of hand.

I thought you were a big NIL fan. Funny thing is all this NIL stuff relies on outside sources to make the payments. The argument has always been schools and coaches make millions while players get nothing ( though one could argue $40-60,000/ year plus the opportunity to get a college degree AND be trained for the NFL/NBA/NHL etc ain’t exactly nothing). Now players get money, but the schools and coaches still get their millions. What a racket. One would hope they stop referring to student athletes pretty soon.

Oh, as an aside, apparently high school players are now being offered NIL payment in some places to attend particular high schools. LOL. Education is the priority, of course.

 

[billybud]

How would you think that I was a big NIL fan...I think that you made an assumption without evidence.

 

[XOVERX]

Fickell is a great coach, but Texas and Oklahoma are brands in this country that networks etc are willing to pay for. You can’t say that about Cincinnati

The New York Times, using somewhat dated data from 2019-20, FWIW, agrees with you:

 

[XOVERX]

 

[Slasher]

I don't have a lot of faith in these "estimates." TV ratings completely disagree with them. BC has 3x the fanbase as Cincinnati and 2x Baylor? Yeah freaking right. BYU is laughably low as well. The methodology is based heavily on revenue. Being in P5 conference does not automatically make you have a bigger fan base, but it does get you a ton more TV revenue. And who cares how big the alleged fanbase is? What matters is how many people tune in to watch your games.

BC had 1 game (1.2M) that drew 1M viewers last year. No other drew even 500k. Cincinnati had 8 games over 1M including 4 over 2M. Who's more valuable? Pretty obvious. BYU had 6 games over 1M viewers. This chart means little when it comes to TV value.