I don't doubt that the AAC would like to poach the MWC, as they need to, to keep their TV deal anywhere near $5M per team, per year. That said, the Big XII rumors on a second expansion is going to freeze Boise State in place, you aren't paying MWC exit (and AAC entrance) fees to then a few years later pay the AAC exit (and Big XII entrance) fees. At the same time SMU, knowing that Memphis is a likely goner if the Big XII expands, may well see more stability in a Mountain West conference that might lose one program; the Mountain West could see massive new markets as well by adding SMU and Rice. That would likely solidify the MWC deal at no worse than the $4M/school/year it gets currently even if Boise left (and it would likely be closer to $5M-5.5/school/year if/when Boise is there).
In the scenario where SMU bolts coupled with Memphis' refusal to sign a grant of rights (and they shouldn't) the AAC becomes even more of C-USA 2.0 when they're stuck adding UAB, etc. The league at that point becomes less palatable to Navy who also leaves, slashing the value further... perhaps to the point where Temple has to beg to go back to the A-10 and join the independents themselves. By the end of the shenanigans; I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC's new TV deal looks like a MAC on steroids deal.