Real Look At next season

[Buzzyboy]

They might've been unproven prior to the season but three of them were among the five best players in the country by the end. Those were unknowns going into the year which made the team a mystery. Did the team surprise based on preseason expectations? Of course. But that team was clearly a powerhouse come tournament time. Whether or not one expected them to be 36-0 by the semis, they had the toughest path cleared for them and were overwhelming favorites to beat State and win the title. The shock of how good they became had rubbed off and every metric pointed to them as the best team in the country. The season as a whole was successful but the reality is they should've won the title.

Now, if somehow Walker, Coombs, Nelson-Ododa, and Williams all play like AA nominees, then this year's team will be a powerhouse. That's more than a lot to ask for.

It's silly to assume that the four listed above by you will play like AA players but if the majority of them play like All-conference players, that's a pretty nice step up and that, with expected stellar seasons from Pheesa, KLS and our point guard, that suggests a pretty impressive season. I'll take our chances!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

That Mississippi team was pretty darn good and we weren't quite as good as an undefeated team would have you believe we were. We didn't play our A game and they played very well and it happened. The actual point spread probably should have been more like an 8 point or ten point pick, not the 22 point spread that you suggested it was.

I didn't suggest the point spread, the people in Vegas did.

As for Mississippi State, they were a nice team but one that got blown out at home by Tennessee. I might agree with the rest to an extent but UConn wasn't that heavily favored for no reason. UConn had three all-americans and arguably the best player in the country. The Bulldogs had no all-americans, not even of the high school variety.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Some teams lost less from last year than UConn, true.

UConn lost 3 of the top-10 picks in the draft. So I'd say that might be an understatement.

 

[nwhoopfan]

UConn lost 3 of the top-10 picks in the draft. So I'd say that might be an understatement.

Okay, fair point. But there's two opposing things happening. UConn maybe lost more than anybody else from last year's team, and yet has more talent than just about anybody else returning from last year as well. When you focus on who is returning (and arriving) rather than who left it really doesn't look doomy and gloomy at all.

Anyway I'd say as far as the overall makeup of the team Mississippi St. is hit harder by losses than UConn.

 

[EricLA]

I was on the BY. For example, see this thread from April 2016 - Official 2016-17 rankings thread

I'll take your word for it on the general attitude of UConn fans at the time.

In that thread, I agree with bballnut90, who had UConn #3. SCGamecock, Triad, and TerpWomenFan also all had UConn in their top 4. That's 5 visiting fans, all of us had UConn in our top-4. That's what I mean by "outside the bubble", most expected a Final Four (equating top 4 ranking preseason to Final Four projection).

The broader point, if I have one, is that UConn fans were too pessimistic in advance of that season just as I feel some are too pessimistic now.

Correct. As I said, when Morgan said she was leaving too, most UCONN fans did not see us as a top 3-4 team, hence the elite 8 expectations with hopes for better. You can certainly argue that UCONN fans were overly pessimistic, but that's how most of us felt...

 

[Carnac]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt.. Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

It's not fair to hold her feet to the fire for her inability to limit or neutralize a player that is 5 inches taller, out weighs her at least 30 lbs, and can no doubt out jump her.

Sylvia Fowles (WNBA Minnesota Lynx) is 6'6". No other player in the league has success stopping or limiting her offensively on a regular basis.

On the rare occasions Collier has to guard a 6'6" post player, she's going to be at a serious disadvantage, and will need lots of weak side help. Otherwise she will either get eaten alive or sent to the bench very early in the game with foul trouble. An obvious mismatch that the opposing coach would exploit right away.

When two players are matched up against one another, and there is a 4-5 inch difference in height, the smaller player usually comes up on the short end every time. Especially if the taller player has hops. No pun intended.

Imagine a 6'4" guard trying to guard 6'9" LeBron James on the block. You can guess the results. This is why it's imperative that either Camara or ONO (or both) step up to begin the season.

 

[Geosfun]

1. A banged up Lou who seems to have a penchant for getting injured.
2. A point guard with questionable legs
3. Pheesa a reliable small forward ,but has trouble with the big post players.
4. Meg who will probably be a good 3 but with minimal size and game experience
5. Two soph guards with no game experience
6. Two frosh with potential
7. Batouly , potential rebounder ,no experience
8. Two bench players

Wow ..will this be an interesting season... especially the non league games.
Rebounding and defense will be a challenge. The inability to stop the penetration and 3 pt shooting of quick guards will need to be addressed .

We're suffering from the weak Junior class; but, I fear not for in Geno I trust.
AZ had the potential but was inconsistent at best. I look to Meghan having a breakthrough year and adding a bit of toughness I never saw from AZ. I'm excited!

 

[paisan]

I agree scoop...my point was not to disparage pheesa ability to play the finesse forward , it was to emphasize the lack of size and strength at the post , which has haunted them since Stewie left.

 

[Bigboote]

It's not fair to hold her feet to the fire for her inability to limit or neutralize a player that is 5 inches taller, out weighs her at least 30 lbs, and can no doubt out jump her.

Sylvia Fowles (WNBA Minnesota Lynx) is 6'6". No other player in the league has success stopping or limiting her offensively on a regular basis.

On the rare occasions Collier has to guard a 6'6" post player, she's going to be at a serious disadvantage, and will need lots of weak side help. Otherwise she will either get eaten alive or sent to the bench very early in the game with foul trouble. An obvious mismatch that the opposing coach would exploit right away.

That's how they were so successful two years ago with their two front court players at 5-11 and 6-1. I've never seen team/help/switching defense as effective as that. They didn't panic when after switching, their 5-8 point guard was inside covering a 6-4 post, and often they got the stop.

There's no question that this team has the potential to repeat that (not making any predictions, note the word potential). Collier is a better defender than she was two years ago, so the essential thing is that Walker buy in to the defensive system 100%.

 

[Carnac]

That's how they were so successful two years ago with their two front court players at 5-11 and 6-1. I've never seen team/help/switching defense as effective as that. They didn't panic when after switching, their 5-8 point guard was inside covering a 6-4 post, and often they got the stop.

There's no question that this team has the potential to repeat that (not making any predictions, note the word potential). Collier is a better defender than she was two years ago, so the essential thing is that Walker buy in to the defensive system 100%.

My original thoughts when I read paisan's comment was that Collier should not be expected to shut down or limit a post player that has a 5" height advantage on her. Unlike Williams, Collier does not have the type of leaping ability she'll need to guard post players, or block their shots. If UConn had one or two 6-5/6-6 post players, she would not be asked to guard posts.

I understand the dynamics involved in the team's need for her to do so. Williams, Stevens and Collier have never been asked to guard post players until they got to UConn. Again, I do understand the reasoning. Please understand, I'm not questioning Geno's motives, he's puts his 5 best players on the court in an attempt to win a game.

If that's what the team needs her to do, then that what she needs to do. UConn has an immediate need for post players. Lou is not a post. Stevens was not a post, but because there was a need, their height was/is utilized at times in the paint on defense. Collier is a much better player than she was two years ago, but so will the other seniors she'll be playing against. Seniors Teaira McCowan (T A&M) and Kalani Brown (Baylor) are going to be hard to defend for every team they play.

I understand the team's need for Stevens to guard post players. She didn't do it at Duke, and she's not doing it now in the W. Out of necessity, UConn experimented with putting a square peg in a round hole. I don't fault the attempt. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. At the time it was there was a critical need. If you remember, Gabby was ecstatic when she heard the news that Stevens and not her would be guarding the opponent's BIGS that coming season.

 

[Shorty Dee]

I'm looking forward to another amazing season. I bleed blue..win, lose or draw. UConn has 2 of the best Coaches with Coach Geno Auriemma and Coach Chris Dailey, so I am not worried. The same thing was said when others graduated.

 

[donalddoowop]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt.. Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

Do you think maybe it's because Napheesa is only 6'1"? Is she the only one on the team or in women's CBB who is 6'1", who has trouble guarding 6'6" players?

 

[Florida Fan]

She was the difference in both the Texas and Notre Dame wins that came down to the wire. And she was the turning-point factor in the national semi but then wasn't used down the stretch by her coach.

Bottom line, an absent Z will be the difference maker, which way is part of this debate, but any team is better with Z than without her.

 

[Carnac]

Um...How about prior to the 2016-17 season? Graduate 3 AA’s, only 1 returning starter, no height, no depth, no experience?

Ahhhh yes, a nightmare I don't ever want to live through again.

 

[donalddoowop]

Bottom line, an absent Z will be the difference maker, which way is part of this debate, but any team is better with Z than without her.

Based on what I've seen so far, Z would have benefited greatly from one more season with Uconn. She certainly would play more than she is playing now with her pro team.

 

[CocoHusky]

In two consecutive years UCONN had an undefeated regular seasons and lost in OT at FF all while playing with a center that was 5'11" (Gabby) and a PF that was 6'1" (Napheesa)-BOTH AAs!
There was no reason to believe that Gabby and Napheesa could not get the job of guarding the post done in those FF games. Both had gotten the job done against much better players previously: Brown of Baylor, Wilson of South Carolina, and a healthy Turner of ND-ALSO all AAs.
Some criticism of Geno and the staff is fair here in this sense. On each occasions Geno had 6'5" ( Natalie ) or 6'6" (Azura) available to him to provide some help in offsetting the high disadvantage of Gabby and Napheesa.
Both Butler and Stevens had played in the post effectively against quality opponents: Natalie against Brown of Baylor & Azura (mostly offensively) against Shepard of ND. This was a big moment and it is moments like these why these players came to UCONN. The UCONN staff had 3 full years with Natalie and 2 full years with Azura to get them ready for a moment like this and it didn't happen. Natalie Butler played 6 minutes against Mississippi State and Azura played 28 minutes against ND both games lasted 45 minutes.

 

[Golden Husky]

That Mississippi team was pretty darn good and we weren't quite as good as an undefeated team would have you believe we were. We didn't play our A game and they played very well and it happened. The actual point spread probably should have been more like an 8 point or ten point pick, not the 22 point spread that you suggested it was.

The purpose of a pointspread is not to predict the outcome of a game but to entice an equal amount of wagering on both teams. A pointspread never can be validated or invalidated by the final score. Only the betting can do that and, since the line drew a near equal amount of interest on each team, it was a good line.

 

[oldude]

The purpose of a pointspread is not to predict the outcome of a game but to entice an equal amount of wagering on both teams. A pointspread never can be validated or invalidated by the final score. Only the betting can do that and, since the line drew a near equal amount of interest on each team, it was a good line.

The point spread also moves based on the betting. Early money on UConn probably pushed the spread up until it leveled off at 22.

 

[Monte]

You have to look at the views of both the pessimists and the optimists, and then figure that the reality is somewhere in between.

 

[Golden Husky]

The point spread also moves based on the betting. Early money on UConn probably pushed the spread up until it leveled off at 22.

That was pretty much the case, Oldude. A Nevada bookmaker told me he opened UConn-Mississippi State at 18 1/2 and the line was bet up to 24 before some sharps bought it back to 21 1/2, where it closed. The bookie said he won about 6 1/2% on the game and if UConn had covered the house would have cleared about 2%. Bet takers are queasy when it comes to booking sports they don't know so the largest bet this guy took--and he's at a major Strip emporium--was $500.

 

[BostonCanuck]

I'm predicting two losses and a conference championship for the 2018-19 team going into the NCAA tournament. And that's a good thing... the last thing I'd want is for the team is to again head into the tournament undefeated on the season.

For me, by far the biggest downside for next year's team is no Azura. Yes, she could be inconsistent last year, and probably was a net liability in the second half of the national semi-final. But she would have been an absolute monster next year had she stayed, and with the development of others like Megan, on balance the roster would remained as good as it was.

Last year, Notre Dame proved that a motley crew can win a national championship in any given year if its players are properly motivated and well coached. And UConn proved that the most talented team in the nation can fall short. That gives us more than a puncher's chance next season, and makes me a believer that number 12 could happen.

 

[nwhoopfan]

a conference championship for the 2018-19 team

Whoa, that's a bold prediction there! UConn might lose to an AAC opponent eventually, but it probably isn't going to happen this coming season.

 

[BobbyJ]

In two consecutive years UCONN had an undefeated regular seasons and lost in OT at FF all while playing with a center that was 5'11" (Gabby) and a PF that was 6'1" (Napheesa)-BOTH AAs!
There was no reason to believe that Gabby and Napheesa could not get the job of guarding the post done in those FF games. Both had gotten the job done against much better players previously: Brown of Baylor, Wilson of South Carolina, and a healthy Turner of ND-ALSO all AAs.
Some criticism of Geno and the staff is fair here in this sense. On each occasions Geno had 6'5" ( Natalie ) or 6'6" (Azura) available to him to provide some help in offsetting the high disadvantage of Gabby and Napheesa.
Both Butler and Stevens had played in the post effectively against quality opponents: Natalie against Brown of Baylor & Azura (mostly offensively) against Shepard of ND. This was a big moment and it is moments like these why these players came to UCONN. The UCONN staff had 3 full years with Natalie and 2 full years with Azura to get them ready for a moment like this and it didn't happen. Natalie Butler played 6 minutes against Mississippi State and Azura played 28 minutes against ND both games lasted 45 minutes.

Exactly. UConn does a good job physically conditioning their kids and giving them good offensive and defensive schemes to work with, but they're no better than most at skills development. That's why I questioned a few months ago how Stevens could have been at UConn for almost 2 full years and not at least developed a drop step, turnaround jumper, or a jump hook. Like Collier, the kids have to do it themselves in the off season because it ain't happening on campus between Oct. and March.

 

[Charliebball]

I'm predicting two losses and a conference championship for the 2018-19 team going into the NCAA tournament. And that's a good thing... the last thing I'd want is for the team is to again head into the tournament undefeated on the season.

For me, by far the biggest downside for next year's team is no Azura. Yes, she could be inconsistent last year, and probably was a net liability in the second half of the national semi-final. But she would have been an absolute monster next year had she stayed, and with the development of others like Megan, on balance the roster would remained as good as it was.

Last year, Notre Dame proved that a motley crew can win a national championship in any given year if its players are properly motivated and well coached. And UConn proved that the most talented team in the nation can fall short. That gives us more than a puncher's chance next season, and makes me a believer that number 12 could happen.

I wouldn't exactly call that ND team a a motley crew............ Shepard was the ESPN #3 rated player out of high school, Ogunbawle #10 and Mabrey #24..........I'd say they were more shorthanded then anything else....

 

[huskeynut]

Looking at the out of conference schedule, ND and Baylor are potential loses. ND is good and the defending national champs. Baylor has the two bigs and we are at Baylor. I think both games will be very competitive. I don't see either being a blowout.