Real Look At next season

[winlots]

Yes, two returning All-Americans and a top point guard. I think you could put any two Boneyarders on the court with those three and you’d win the AAC and probably make the sweet sixteen. Hopefully, Geno comes up with something better and it should be a fun season.
Paisan mentioned KLS having a “penchant for getting injured.” Somehow she has still managed to play in 104 of the 112 games in her three years.

BANTAM: Whoa! ANY two Boneyarders and win the AAC?? Very flattering, but might be on more solid ground if you eliminated at least a few of us!

 

[Carnac]

UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Almost everyone except some pessimistic hardcore fans expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations

?!? I think we need to do a "Boneyard" preseason poll later this year around the end of October to see exactly where the die hard UConn fans stand. Charlie Creme's way-to-early 2018-2019 WCBB poll has UConn 4th. That of course could change between now and the first week in November.

Creme has Oregon and Baylor at 2/3. Is there anyone here that thinks UConn is better going into the season than either one of these squads? Regardless, I know there are folks here that agree with you and also have final four expectations for the Huskies. In 2015 and 2016 Baylor and Notre Dame had strong teams, and were favored to make it to the final four, but were ambushed, and knocked out of the tournament the 2nd weekend. Could that happen to UConn this year?

I agree with EricLA's take that "teams like ND and Oregon lost FAR less than we did and on paper, should be better than us. Several other teams (Texas, L'ville, Baylor, and maybe a few others) should also be very good and could easily beat UCONN in the elite 8". Don't forget that old adage: "S*** happens", and UConn has proven the last 2 years it is not immune.

I think UConn will be very competitive this year, but I'm also not losing sight of the fact that as Eric said, many of these teams will also be much improved, not having to fill as many holes as UConn will. UConn needs and expects some players to step up this year. As of now, no one knows if that will happen, or who it will be.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Which other team has 2 legit POY candidates plus potentially the best PG in the country? I'll answer that for you...nobody. It's almost comical how hard some are trying to make UConn into an underdog.

Some teams lost less from last year than UConn, true. Notre Dame went 1-1 vs. UConn last year and of course won the Title. They should be really good again, if Turner is healthy that adds an element they didn't have last year. They also had no PG, somehow they overcame that but it's an issue. Ogunbowale is a potential POY candidate but honestly nobody else is without a quantum leap. Mabrey, Young and Shepard are good players, but just not that caliber. Turner has had a hard time staying healthy and even at her best honestly she's never been anywhere near as good as Collier was as a soph. They've still got the problem of either no true PG, or maybe trust a true Fr. to lead the team? Not quite sure about their incoming recruits.

Oregon was good last year but clearly several steps below UConn. To me they are still working on closing the gap rather than being better than UConn, on paper or on the court. Ionescu is a legit POY candidate and maybe best PG in the country. Hebard is good but she's a notch below POY type I'd say. Cazorla is a really good complimentary player. We'll see how much of a soph leap Sabally makes. She was good as a Fr. but inconsistent and had an up and down season. Beyond that core group they have unproven or new players.

Baylor is Baylor. Tons of talent and size. They'll cruise through the season, maybe only lose 1 or 2 games...and probably fall short of expectations in the Tourney. It's what they do for the most part.

Who else? Louisville had a magical season but Hines-Allen was huge for them, who's replacing her? And Durr, as good as she is, too inconsistent for my taste. I wouldn't be surprised to see them unable to replicate their success from this past season.

Mississippi St. has big losses w/ Vivians and several other Sr. from last year.

I'm not even taking Texas seriously.

I really can't see 4 better teams than UConn. Not remotely. Plus there's the whole Geno thing. The Huskies should be at the Final 4 again. If this is all a set up so UConn fans can claim the team overachieved at the end of the season, I'm not buying it.

 

[Charliebball]

OP is a:
☐ Man
☐ Woman
☑ Nervous Husky fan

and UConn women's basketball is:
☐ not doomed
☑ DOOMED

It's finally your turn to be burdened with sky high expectations..............if ND doesn't win the NC this year with so much senior talent, will it be a disaster as far as the ND fans are concerned?

 

[Orangutan]

They also had no PG

 

[nwhoopfan]

View attachment 32118

She did an admirable job of filling in out of necessity, but she's really not a PG.

 

[Orangutan]

It's finally your turn to be burdened with sky high expectations....if ND doesn't win the NC this year with so much senior talent, will it be a disaster as far as the ND fans are concerned?

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

 

[Carnac]

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

I can see your point. At the risk of sounding blasphemous, baring injury (Heaven knows ND has had its share lately), realistically there is no reason to think this team can't repeat (I hope they don't for obvious reasons. I'd like to see UConn return to form). I honestly think this could be MM's best team in the last 5-7 years. Especially since Ogunbowale will return for her final season to lead her team onto the court wearing her wizard's hat, cape and waving her magic wand with that BIG grin. She may have 1-2 more buzzer beaters that she'd like to give away this year (not against us). I haven't see your schedule yet, but I would bet the farm ND does not lose more than 2 games this year. I said 2, but I'm thinking 1.

 

[Charliebball]

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

that's way too rational..............what kind of fan are you!!!!

 

[Orangutan]

She did an admirable job of filling in out of necessity, but she's really not a PG.

I know, I just thought that photo would be a funny response.

More to the point of your post, it speaks to how you don't have to have every question answered to win the National Championship. Point guard was a question mark for ND up to and during the National Championship (she had 9 turnovers, after all). It didn't matter. They were good enough (and sometimes lucky enough) in other ways that it didn't matter.

ND started a true freshman center (Reimer) and point guard (Allen) in the National Semifinal in 2014 and won by 26. Now, the reason they won big is that McBride had 28p/7r in her penultimate college game and Loyd added 16 and 9. And that's (I think) one of the points you have been making - having two great players (e.g. Collier and Samuelson) can get you a long way if the supporting cast is even adequate.

So yeah, there are more questions about UConn than in many other years but they still have more than enough talent to find a way to make it work.

 

[Carnac]

I know, I just thought that photo would be a funny response.

More to the point of your post, it speaks to how you don't have to have every question answered to win the National Championship. Point guard was a question mark for ND up to and during the National Championship (she had 9 turnovers, after all). It didn't matter. They were good enough (and sometimes lucky enough) in other ways that it didn't matter.

ND started a true freshman center (Reimer) and point guard (Allen) in the National Semifinal in 2014 and won by 26. Now, the reason they won big is that McBride had 28p/7r in her penultimate college game and Loyd added 16 and 9. And that's (I think) one of the points you have been making - having two great players (e.g. Collier and Samuelson) can get you a long way if the supporting cast is even adequate.

So yeah, there are more questions about UConn than in many other years but they still have more than enough talent to find a way to make it work.

Sometimes........all you need is the ball to bounce your way, or to get a controversial call (or non call) late in the game to go your way.....................know what I mean? You can play bad and still win.

 

[EricSD]

Maybe "few" here and even that I doubt. UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Outside the bubble, almost everyone expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations

You probably weren't here on the BY, or don't recall. Just because the pollsters picked us 1 and 3 didn't mean anything. Some people think if you win the NC the prior you, you are automatically #1 the next season, no matter what, until you lose.

From UCONN fans' perspectives, and we had a ton of threads and posts about it, we lost probably the greatest trio in UCONN history. Probably the best all around player ever (Stewie), arguably the best PG (Jefferson), and all around smooth sensation and All American glue player (Tuck). We had no starting experienced PG the following year (Chong ended up being that person), Williams and Nurse were needed to take on huge increased responsibilities, Lou and Pheesa were coming off good freshmen years, but no one knew what the sophomore leap would be, and not a single returning player was an AA the previous season.

It's possible that other teams lost more, or didn't have much coming back, but the general consensus on the BY was that the elite 8 was about our ceiling and anything after that would be gravy. Yes there were some that felt final 4 or NC, but most of us felt elite 8. As it turned out, Chong was very solid, Pheesa, Lou, Gabby and Kia turned out to have sensational seasons, and by the time the NCAA's rolled around, expectations had certainly shifted.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Expectations going into the season is what I'm referring to since that's where we're at now. Obviously for 2016-17 the expectation going into the post season was to finish the job, but that year Geno and others did have their reservations about the team, and they had the close call vs. Tulane, etc. so several people didn't think the title was locked in like it had been the previous 3 years. I thought it was, but was proven wrong. This year I didn't think the title was locked in and that was proven to be true.

Expectations going into 2016-17 were that it would be a season of learning and growth for a relatively young, unproven team with little depth. To our (positive) surprise, we ended up dominating the regular season up until the Final Four. There, the stage got to us, we played tight and ultimately wilted under pressure. Maybe that shouldn't have been as shocking as it was. At the time, the MSU loss was immensely disappointing, but relative to preseason expectations it was a very successful season.

Then, going into 2017-18, adding an All-American transfer and the #1 recruit, we were expected to come out motivated and dominate wire-to-wire with nobody else close. While we didn't lose, there were some closer calls than expected, and the team never really played like they were on the vengeance tour that was expected (Contrast, to, say 2001 into 2002, as Geno has discussed.) For every dominant performance, there was an underwhelming one. The newcomers were inconsistent, even some of the veterans. Then, come the Final Four, we choked again in the face of a tough, disciplined opponent. There is no positive spin to put on this one.

Frankly, something about that group of players didn't mesh on the biggest stage, they were tight and tentative, too robotic, and unwilling to take over the game.

Coming into this year, who knows. Enough talent is there, the coaching is there. Some players will need to step up and take on new and bigger roles. A Final Four is reasonable, and then we'll see. Do Lou and Collier learn from their failures and come out with more confidence and toughness? Does it take a new face to give the team a different identity?

 

[Orangutan]

You probably weren't here on the BY, or don't recall.

I was on the BY. For example, see this thread from April 2016 - Official 2016-17 rankings thread

I'll take your word for it on the general attitude of UConn fans at the time.

In that thread, I agree with bballnut90, who had UConn #3. SCGamecock, Triad, and TerpWomenFan also all had UConn in their top 4. That's 5 visiting fans, all of us had UConn in our top-4. That's what I mean by "outside the bubble", most expected a Final Four (equating top 4 ranking preseason to Final Four projection).

The broader point, if I have one, is that UConn fans were too pessimistic in advance of that season just as I feel some are too pessimistic now.

 

[Buzzyboy]

A major disappointment like losing to a 22-point underdog Mississippi State team in the national semis? Why would losing a round earlier during the upcoming season be any more shocking than that?

That Mississippi team was pretty darn good and we weren't quite as good as an undefeated team would have you believe we were. We didn't play our A game and they played very well and it happened. The actual point spread probably should have been more like an 8 point or ten point pick, not the 22 point spread that you suggested it was.

 

[Buzzyboy]

They might've been unproven prior to the season but three of them were among the five best players in the country by the end. Those were unknowns going into the year which made the team a mystery. Did the team surprise based on preseason expectations? Of course. But that team was clearly a powerhouse come tournament time. Whether or not one expected them to be 36-0 by the semis, they had the toughest path cleared for them and were overwhelming favorites to beat State and win the title. The shock of how good they became had rubbed off and every metric pointed to them as the best team in the country. The season as a whole was successful but the reality is they should've won the title.

Now, if somehow Walker, Coombs, Nelson-Ododa, and Williams all play like AA nominees, then this year's team will be a powerhouse. That's more than a lot to ask for.

It's silly to assume that the four listed above by you will play like AA players but if the majority of them play like All-conference players, that's a pretty nice step up and that, with expected stellar seasons from Pheesa, KLS and our point guard, that suggests a pretty impressive season. I'll take our chances!

 

[Sluconn Husky]

That Mississippi team was pretty darn good and we weren't quite as good as an undefeated team would have you believe we were. We didn't play our A game and they played very well and it happened. The actual point spread probably should have been more like an 8 point or ten point pick, not the 22 point spread that you suggested it was.

I didn't suggest the point spread, the people in Vegas did.

As for Mississippi State, they were a nice team but one that got blown out at home by Tennessee. I might agree with the rest to an extent but UConn wasn't that heavily favored for no reason. UConn had three all-americans and arguably the best player in the country. The Bulldogs had no all-americans, not even of the high school variety.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Some teams lost less from last year than UConn, true.

UConn lost 3 of the top-10 picks in the draft. So I'd say that might be an understatement.

 

[nwhoopfan]

UConn lost 3 of the top-10 picks in the draft. So I'd say that might be an understatement.

Okay, fair point. But there's two opposing things happening. UConn maybe lost more than anybody else from last year's team, and yet has more talent than just about anybody else returning from last year as well. When you focus on who is returning (and arriving) rather than who left it really doesn't look doomy and gloomy at all.

Anyway I'd say as far as the overall makeup of the team Mississippi St. is hit harder by losses than UConn.

 

[EricSD]

I was on the BY. For example, see this thread from April 2016 - Official 2016-17 rankings thread

I'll take your word for it on the general attitude of UConn fans at the time.

In that thread, I agree with bballnut90, who had UConn #3. SCGamecock, Triad, and TerpWomenFan also all had UConn in their top 4. That's 5 visiting fans, all of us had UConn in our top-4. That's what I mean by "outside the bubble", most expected a Final Four (equating top 4 ranking preseason to Final Four projection).

The broader point, if I have one, is that UConn fans were too pessimistic in advance of that season just as I feel some are too pessimistic now.

Correct. As I said, when Morgan said she was leaving too, most UCONN fans did not see us as a top 3-4 team, hence the elite 8 expectations with hopes for better. You can certainly argue that UCONN fans were overly pessimistic, but that's how most of us felt...

 

[Carnac]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt.. Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

It's not fair to hold her feet to the fire for her inability to limit or neutralize a player that is 5 inches taller, out weighs her at least 30 lbs, and can no doubt out jump her.

Sylvia Fowles (WNBA Minnesota Lynx) is 6'6". No other player in the league has success stopping or limiting her offensively on a regular basis.

On the rare occasions Collier has to guard a 6'6" post player, she's going to be at a serious disadvantage, and will need lots of weak side help. Otherwise she will either get eaten alive or sent to the bench very early in the game with foul trouble. An obvious mismatch that the opposing coach would exploit right away.

When two players are matched up against one another, and there is a 4-5 inch difference in height, the smaller player usually comes up on the short end every time. Especially if the taller player has hops. No pun intended.

Imagine a 6'4" guard trying to guard 6'9" LeBron James on the block. You can guess the results. This is why it's imperative that either Camara or ONO (or both) step up to begin the season.

 

[Geosfun]

1. A banged up Lou who seems to have a penchant for getting injured.
2. A point guard with questionable legs
3. Pheesa a reliable small forward ,but has trouble with the big post players.
4. Meg who will probably be a good 3 but with minimal size and game experience
5. Two soph guards with no game experience
6. Two frosh with potential
7. Batouly , potential rebounder ,no experience
8. Two bench players

Wow ..will this be an interesting season... especially the non league games.
Rebounding and defense will be a challenge. The inability to stop the penetration and 3 pt shooting of quick guards will need to be addressed .

We're suffering from the weak Junior class; but, I fear not for in Geno I trust.
AZ had the potential but was inconsistent at best. I look to Meghan having a breakthrough year and adding a bit of toughness I never saw from AZ. I'm excited!

 

[paisan]

I agree scoop...my point was not to disparage pheesa ability to play the finesse forward , it was to emphasize the lack of size and strength at the post , which has haunted them since Stewie left.

 

[Bigboote]

It's not fair to hold her feet to the fire for her inability to limit or neutralize a player that is 5 inches taller, out weighs her at least 30 lbs, and can no doubt out jump her.

Sylvia Fowles (WNBA Minnesota Lynx) is 6'6". No other player in the league has success stopping or limiting her offensively on a regular basis.

On the rare occasions Collier has to guard a 6'6" post player, she's going to be at a serious disadvantage, and will need lots of weak side help. Otherwise she will either get eaten alive or sent to the bench very early in the game with foul trouble. An obvious mismatch that the opposing coach would exploit right away.

That's how they were so successful two years ago with their two front court players at 5-11 and 6-1. I've never seen team/help/switching defense as effective as that. They didn't panic when after switching, their 5-8 point guard was inside covering a 6-4 post, and often they got the stop.

There's no question that this team has the potential to repeat that (not making any predictions, note the word potential). Collier is a better defender than she was two years ago, so the essential thing is that Walker buy in to the defensive system 100%.

 

[Carnac]

That's how they were so successful two years ago with their two front court players at 5-11 and 6-1. I've never seen team/help/switching defense as effective as that. They didn't panic when after switching, their 5-8 point guard was inside covering a 6-4 post, and often they got the stop.

There's no question that this team has the potential to repeat that (not making any predictions, note the word potential). Collier is a better defender than she was two years ago, so the essential thing is that Walker buy in to the defensive system 100%.

My original thoughts when I read paisan's comment was that Collier should not be expected to shut down or limit a post player that has a 5" height advantage on her. Unlike Williams, Collier does not have the type of leaping ability she'll need to guard post players, or block their shots. If UConn had one or two 6-5/6-6 post players, she would not be asked to guard posts.

I understand the dynamics involved in the team's need for her to do so. Williams, Stevens and Collier have never been asked to guard post players until they got to UConn. Again, I do understand the reasoning. Please understand, I'm not questioning Geno's motives, he's puts his 5 best players on the court in an attempt to win a game.

If that's what the team needs her to do, then that what she needs to do. UConn has an immediate need for post players. Lou is not a post. Stevens was not a post, but because there was a need, their height was/is utilized at times in the paint on defense. Collier is a much better player than she was two years ago, but so will the other seniors she'll be playing against. Seniors Teaira McCowan (T A&M) and Kalani Brown (Baylor) are going to be hard to defend for every team they play.

I understand the team's need for Stevens to guard post players. She didn't do it at Duke, and she's not doing it now in the W. Out of necessity, UConn experimented with putting a square peg in a round hole. I don't fault the attempt. When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. At the time it was there was a critical need. If you remember, Gabby was ecstatic when she heard the news that Stevens and not her would be guarding the opponent's BIGS that coming season.

 

[Shorty Dee]

I'm looking forward to another amazing season. I bleed blue..win, lose or draw. UConn has 2 of the best Coaches with Coach Geno Auriemma and Coach Chris Dailey, so I am not worried. The same thing was said when others graduated.

 

[donalddoowop]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt.. Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

Do you think maybe it's because Napheesa is only 6'1"? Is she the only one on the team or in women's CBB who is 6'1", who has trouble guarding 6'6" players?

 

[Florida Fan]

She was the difference in both the Texas and Notre Dame wins that came down to the wire. And she was the turning-point factor in the national semi but then wasn't used down the stretch by her coach.

Bottom line, an absent Z will be the difference maker, which way is part of this debate, but any team is better with Z than without her.

 

[Carnac]

Um...How about prior to the 2016-17 season? Graduate 3 AA’s, only 1 returning starter, no height, no depth, no experience?

Ahhhh yes, a nightmare I don't ever want to live through again.

 

[donalddoowop]

Bottom line, an absent Z will be the difference maker, which way is part of this debate, but any team is better with Z than without her.

Based on what I've seen so far, Z would have benefited greatly from one more season with Uconn. She certainly would play more than she is playing now with her pro team.