Real Look At next season

[Carnac]

Now in 2019, expectations will be lower compared to last year, but if UCONN doesn’t even make the Final Four for the first time in 12 years with all of their talent and with KLS/Collier being seniors, it’d be far worse than 2018 IMO.

Query........when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC. No AA starters were returning, and there were 3 openings in the starting line up.

Every year, perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for this team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

 

[Carnac]

I appreciate Paisan for starting this thread. If he weren't so negative, what would have compelled all this thoughtful analysis to come forward. But Paisan, one other negative you might have mentioned was the shakeup in the coaching staff as Marissa leaves and Jasmine comes aboard. That may cause some discontinuity. Anyway, I think the Huskies will be successful. To what degree, I don't know: final four or national championship? It's hard to say.

I appreciate Paisan's motives for this thread as well. You could very well be right. It's possible that Mosley leaving could have an effect on the players she worked directly with. I would submit that the reverse is also a possibility. Lister has a dynamic and attractive personality. She comes in being very familiar with Geno and the other coaches and the 2 seniors. I'll bet all of the players will enjoy working with her. I don't think there will be a disconnect there.

It's very possible that the players have already accepted the fact that Mosley is gone, and have moved on. It's also possible that the players may easily connect and identify with Lister because she is closer to their age (26) than Mosley was (36).

 

[donalddoowop]

I’m not demanding perfection like many here on the BY. While UConn’s goal is always a national championship, and the losses in the semifinals in each of the past two seasons hurt, 72-2 is a remarkable achievement that should be celebrated by UConn fans and not picked apart as some kind of failure.

Should UConn lose 1 game this year, or 3, or even 5, I will continue to be a “glass half full” guy that thoroughly enjoys the achievements of these wonderful young ladies.

I'll take 3 to 5 losses this season if it comes with a NC.

 

[bballnut90]

Query...when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC.

Perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for the team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

Expectations going into the season is what I'm referring to since that's where we're at now. Obviously for 2016-17 the expectation going into the post season was to finish the job, but that year Geno and others did have their reservations about the team, and they had the close call vs. Tulane, etc. so several people didn't think the title was locked in like it had been the previous 3 years. I thought it was, but was proven wrong. This year I didn't think the title was locked in and that was proven to be true.

 

[Carnac]

I'll take 3 to 5 losses this season if it comes with a NC.

LOL, You and everybody else!!!

 

[Orangutan]

OP is a:
☐ Man
☐ Woman
☑ Nervous Husky fan

and UConn women's basketball is:
☐ not doomed
☑ DOOMED

 

[JordyG]

Sheesh Paisan no attack but really??? Great bullet points but how could you possibly leave out....
1. Currently active volcanoes.
2. Wild fires on the west coast.
3. Will Kim Jong Un start a nuclear war in the middle of basketball season?
4. The state of Connecticut is as close to bankruptcy as it gets.
5. Nation wide heroin epidemic.

I could go on but no need as in Geno & CD I trust. They may not go undefeated or win a NC but then again they may find a way to do both. That's the beauty of the game and why it is played. The guaranteed is they will play hard and as a team unlike many and be a joy to watch.
Come on in off the ledge.....

You forgot one very important point. Asteroids are getting closer and closer to striking the earth without being detected. Maybe we can build a wall around the planet and have Mars pay for it.

 

[paisan]

I am happy to see such a diverse and stimulating discussion of my post. Contrary to some Byers reaction; I am looking forward to the coming season. If I am honest, in past years I have found the conference games to be less than interesting. I just don’t understand 40 pt wins without giving bench players significant pt....... Last years team had the skill to go all the way and they did not. I believe they lost because of poor defense. This year will be very interesting.
Quick note on pheesa. I do not doubt her offensive skills, but she has trouble against the big strong 6-6 players on defense and rebounding.

 

[EricLA]

Query...when are these expectations formulated? During the summer?, in November, just before the season begins?, or sometime in late January? If you remember, during the summer after the BIG 3 left, expectations ranged from doom and gloom (losing as many as 3 games during the OOC portion of the schedule) by some posters, to winning the NC. No AA starters were returning, and there 3 openings in the starting line up.

Every year, perceptions change as the season progresses. I submit that expectations for this team will be much different in late January than they are today. There will be no "unknowns" or "what ifs" by then. UConn fans will know exactly what they have, and what they can realistically expect from that point going forward. The teams that are serious contenders to win the NC will have already positioned themselves in the top 7 spots nationally.

Bingo. And that was my point for the part of my post that said I "expect" we will make the elite 8, but making the final 4 would exceed my expectations for next season. However, come January, it may all change...

2 years ago few expected a final 4. We eked out a win vs. FSU, and then went on a great run for the season. By the time the NCAA's came around and we looked at how the bracket fell, I think most of us expected either making the NC game and losing, or winning it all. Still we overachieved IMHO.

Last year was NC or bust. IMHO we under achieved.

We lost 2 GREAT players and Azura who might have been great had she stayed. That's a LOT to absorb. Sure we have a great nucleus, but teams like ND and Oregon lost FAR less than we did and on paper, should be better than us. Several other teams (Texas, L'ville, Baylor, and maybe a few others) should also be very good and could easily beat UCONN in the elite 8. Hence my comment that since we aren't the heavy favorite at this time, and there are other teams who are better on paper, or close to it, that making it to the final 4 would exceed my expectations next season.

But as Geno has often said, he will do his best to put the team in a position to win. So we shall see!

 

[Orangutan]

2 years ago few expected a final 4.

Maybe "few" here and even that I doubt. UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Outside the bubble, almost everyone expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations

 

[winlots]

Yes, two returning All-Americans and a top point guard. I think you could put any two Boneyarders on the court with those three and you’d win the AAC and probably make the sweet sixteen. Hopefully, Geno comes up with something better and it should be a fun season.
Paisan mentioned KLS having a “penchant for getting injured.” Somehow she has still managed to play in 104 of the 112 games in her three years.

BANTAM: Whoa! ANY two Boneyarders and win the AAC?? Very flattering, but might be on more solid ground if you eliminated at least a few of us!

 

[Carnac]

UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Almost everyone except some pessimistic hardcore fans expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations

?!? I think we need to do a "Boneyard" preseason poll later this year around the end of October to see exactly where the die hard UConn fans stand. Charlie Creme's way-to-early 2018-2019 WCBB poll has UConn 4th. That of course could change between now and the first week in November.

Creme has Oregon and Baylor at 2/3. Is there anyone here that thinks UConn is better going into the season than either one of these squads? Regardless, I know there are folks here that agree with you and also have final four expectations for the Huskies. In 2015 and 2016 Baylor and Notre Dame had strong teams, and were favored to make it to the final four, but were ambushed, and knocked out of the tournament the 2nd weekend. Could that happen to UConn this year?

I agree with EricLA's take that "teams like ND and Oregon lost FAR less than we did and on paper, should be better than us. Several other teams (Texas, L'ville, Baylor, and maybe a few others) should also be very good and could easily beat UCONN in the elite 8". Don't forget that old adage: "S*** happens", and UConn has proven the last 2 years it is not immune.

I think UConn will be very competitive this year, but I'm also not losing sight of the fact that as Eric said, many of these teams will also be much improved, not having to fill as many holes as UConn will. UConn needs and expects some players to step up this year. As of now, no one knows if that will happen, or who it will be.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Which other team has 2 legit POY candidates plus potentially the best PG in the country? I'll answer that for you...nobody. It's almost comical how hard some are trying to make UConn into an underdog.

Some teams lost less from last year than UConn, true. Notre Dame went 1-1 vs. UConn last year and of course won the Title. They should be really good again, if Turner is healthy that adds an element they didn't have last year. They also had no PG, somehow they overcame that but it's an issue. Ogunbowale is a potential POY candidate but honestly nobody else is without a quantum leap. Mabrey, Young and Shepard are good players, but just not that caliber. Turner has had a hard time staying healthy and even at her best honestly she's never been anywhere near as good as Collier was as a soph. They've still got the problem of either no true PG, or maybe trust a true Fr. to lead the team? Not quite sure about their incoming recruits.

Oregon was good last year but clearly several steps below UConn. To me they are still working on closing the gap rather than being better than UConn, on paper or on the court. Ionescu is a legit POY candidate and maybe best PG in the country. Hebard is good but she's a notch below POY type I'd say. Cazorla is a really good complimentary player. We'll see how much of a soph leap Sabally makes. She was good as a Fr. but inconsistent and had an up and down season. Beyond that core group they have unproven or new players.

Baylor is Baylor. Tons of talent and size. They'll cruise through the season, maybe only lose 1 or 2 games...and probably fall short of expectations in the Tourney. It's what they do for the most part.

Who else? Louisville had a magical season but Hines-Allen was huge for them, who's replacing her? And Durr, as good as she is, too inconsistent for my taste. I wouldn't be surprised to see them unable to replicate their success from this past season.

Mississippi St. has big losses w/ Vivians and several other Sr. from last year.

I'm not even taking Texas seriously.

I really can't see 4 better teams than UConn. Not remotely. Plus there's the whole Geno thing. The Huskies should be at the Final 4 again. If this is all a set up so UConn fans can claim the team overachieved at the end of the season, I'm not buying it.

 

[Charliebball]

OP is a:
☐ Man
☐ Woman
☑ Nervous Husky fan

and UConn women's basketball is:
☐ not doomed
☑ DOOMED

It's finally your turn to be burdened with sky high expectations..............if ND doesn't win the NC this year with so much senior talent, will it be a disaster as far as the ND fans are concerned?

 

[Orangutan]

They also had no PG

 

[nwhoopfan]

View attachment 32118

She did an admirable job of filling in out of necessity, but she's really not a PG.

 

[Orangutan]

It's finally your turn to be burdened with sky high expectations....if ND doesn't win the NC this year with so much senior talent, will it be a disaster as far as the ND fans are concerned?

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

 

[Carnac]

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

I can see your point. At the risk of sounding blasphemous, baring injury (Heaven knows ND has had its share lately), realistically there is no reason to think this team can't repeat (I hope they don't for obvious reasons. I'd like to see UConn return to form). I honestly think this could be MM's best team in the last 5-7 years. Especially since Ogunbowale will return for her final season to lead her team onto the court wearing her wizard's hat, cape and waving her magic wand with that BIG grin. She may have 1-2 more buzzer beaters that she'd like to give away this year (not against us). I haven't see your schedule yet, but I would bet the farm ND does not lose more than 2 games this year. I said 2, but I'm thinking 1.

 

[Charliebball]

I can't speak for the fanbase but personally I feel like this is the bonus round. ND slayed the dragon (UConn) and claimed the treasure (the NC). Now, we get to watch 4 out of 5 starters return for another go. I love this group so much so I'm just excited to see them again.

My expectations are the same as they have been for the last several years - make the Final Four and then anything can happen. I'll consider it a disappointment if they don't make the Final Four just as I did when they missed out in '16 and '17. If they make the Final Four, that's a a great year regardless of whether they bring home the NC again.

that's way too rational..............what kind of fan are you!!!!

 

[Orangutan]

She did an admirable job of filling in out of necessity, but she's really not a PG.

I know, I just thought that photo would be a funny response.

More to the point of your post, it speaks to how you don't have to have every question answered to win the National Championship. Point guard was a question mark for ND up to and during the National Championship (she had 9 turnovers, after all). It didn't matter. They were good enough (and sometimes lucky enough) in other ways that it didn't matter.

ND started a true freshman center (Reimer) and point guard (Allen) in the National Semifinal in 2014 and won by 26. Now, the reason they won big is that McBride had 28p/7r in her penultimate college game and Loyd added 16 and 9. And that's (I think) one of the points you have been making - having two great players (e.g. Collier and Samuelson) can get you a long way if the supporting cast is even adequate.

So yeah, there are more questions about UConn than in many other years but they still have more than enough talent to find a way to make it work.

 

[Carnac]

I know, I just thought that photo would be a funny response.

More to the point of your post, it speaks to how you don't have to have every question answered to win the National Championship. Point guard was a question mark for ND up to and during the National Championship (she had 9 turnovers, after all). It didn't matter. They were good enough (and sometimes lucky enough) in other ways that it didn't matter.

ND started a true freshman center (Reimer) and point guard (Allen) in the National Semifinal in 2014 and won by 26. Now, the reason they won big is that McBride had 28p/7r in her penultimate college game and Loyd added 16 and 9. And that's (I think) one of the points you have been making - having two great players (e.g. Collier and Samuelson) can get you a long way if the supporting cast is even adequate.

So yeah, there are more questions about UConn than in many other years but they still have more than enough talent to find a way to make it work.

Sometimes........all you need is the ball to bounce your way, or to get a controversial call (or non call) late in the game to go your way.....................know what I mean? You can play bad and still win.

 

[EricLA]

Maybe "few" here and even that I doubt. UConn was ranked #1 in the Coaches Poll, #3 in the AP. Outside the bubble, almost everyone expected a Final Four.

Similarly UConn will be #2 or #3 in all the preseason polls this year = Final Four expectations

You probably weren't here on the BY, or don't recall. Just because the pollsters picked us 1 and 3 didn't mean anything. Some people think if you win the NC the prior you, you are automatically #1 the next season, no matter what, until you lose.

From UCONN fans' perspectives, and we had a ton of threads and posts about it, we lost probably the greatest trio in UCONN history. Probably the best all around player ever (Stewie), arguably the best PG (Jefferson), and all around smooth sensation and All American glue player (Tuck). We had no starting experienced PG the following year (Chong ended up being that person), Williams and Nurse were needed to take on huge increased responsibilities, Lou and Pheesa were coming off good freshmen years, but no one knew what the sophomore leap would be, and not a single returning player was an AA the previous season.

It's possible that other teams lost more, or didn't have much coming back, but the general consensus on the BY was that the elite 8 was about our ceiling and anything after that would be gravy. Yes there were some that felt final 4 or NC, but most of us felt elite 8. As it turned out, Chong was very solid, Pheesa, Lou, Gabby and Kia turned out to have sensational seasons, and by the time the NCAA's rolled around, expectations had certainly shifted.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Expectations going into the season is what I'm referring to since that's where we're at now. Obviously for 2016-17 the expectation going into the post season was to finish the job, but that year Geno and others did have their reservations about the team, and they had the close call vs. Tulane, etc. so several people didn't think the title was locked in like it had been the previous 3 years. I thought it was, but was proven wrong. This year I didn't think the title was locked in and that was proven to be true.

Expectations going into 2016-17 were that it would be a season of learning and growth for a relatively young, unproven team with little depth. To our (positive) surprise, we ended up dominating the regular season up until the Final Four. There, the stage got to us, we played tight and ultimately wilted under pressure. Maybe that shouldn't have been as shocking as it was. At the time, the MSU loss was immensely disappointing, but relative to preseason expectations it was a very successful season.

Then, going into 2017-18, adding an All-American transfer and the #1 recruit, we were expected to come out motivated and dominate wire-to-wire with nobody else close. While we didn't lose, there were some closer calls than expected, and the team never really played like they were on the vengeance tour that was expected (Contrast, to, say 2001 into 2002, as Geno has discussed.) For every dominant performance, there was an underwhelming one. The newcomers were inconsistent, even some of the veterans. Then, come the Final Four, we choked again in the face of a tough, disciplined opponent. There is no positive spin to put on this one.

Frankly, something about that group of players didn't mesh on the biggest stage, they were tight and tentative, too robotic, and unwilling to take over the game.

Coming into this year, who knows. Enough talent is there, the coaching is there. Some players will need to step up and take on new and bigger roles. A Final Four is reasonable, and then we'll see. Do Lou and Collier learn from their failures and come out with more confidence and toughness? Does it take a new face to give the team a different identity?

 

[Orangutan]

You probably weren't here on the BY, or don't recall.

I was on the BY. For example, see this thread from April 2016 - Official 2016-17 rankings thread

I'll take your word for it on the general attitude of UConn fans at the time.

In that thread, I agree with bballnut90, who had UConn #3. SCGamecock, Triad, and TerpWomenFan also all had UConn in their top 4. That's 5 visiting fans, all of us had UConn in our top-4. That's what I mean by "outside the bubble", most expected a Final Four (equating top 4 ranking preseason to Final Four projection).

The broader point, if I have one, is that UConn fans were too pessimistic in advance of that season just as I feel some are too pessimistic now.

 

[Buzzyboy]

A major disappointment like losing to a 22-point underdog Mississippi State team in the national semis? Why would losing a round earlier during the upcoming season be any more shocking than that?

That Mississippi team was pretty darn good and we weren't quite as good as an undefeated team would have you believe we were. We didn't play our A game and they played very well and it happened. The actual point spread probably should have been more like an 8 point or ten point pick, not the 22 point spread that you suggested it was.