Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 17 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

Inyatkin said:
"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you
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Edey averaged 24-12 and won every conceivable POY award.

Boozer is very good. He is not senior year Zach Edey.

I'm not convinced UConn beats Duke if they meet up, but I think if UConn actually shows up there's a very good chance. When this team plays to potential—and other than the first St. John's game they do against every good team—they can beat anyone. And they have key players (and a coach) who have won titles. Karaban has two. That experience matters, and only Florida has that.
 
Inyatkin said:
"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you
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I think half is under selling it lol.
 
RuffRuff said:
At this point, likely a shoe in that we are going to be either the 1 or the 2 in the South. How much that matters, who knows. In a case like this, it would be the difference of playing a Purdue or a Texas Tech in the S16.

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Voila. We're #4 overall. And instead of facing #13 overall, we get #14, while #5 Florida gets #10.

In this version, being on the #1 line makes a full seed line difference in the quality of our opponent, which matters when there's a decent drop off after #11 or so overall.
 
Inyatkin said:
"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you
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I absolutely don't think we are done for - it's conversational. I think Hurley is a good enough coach to devise something that could counter, simply stating it would be a real challenge as they have a physical advantage.

Duke has kept 9 of their las 13 opponents in the 50's. No one is cracking out of the 60's. They defend. Defense travels. Probably premature.
 
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My general thoughts on the NCAA committee. You’ll find that I’m a cynic.
1 - they always congratulate themselves first on doing a great job on a tough assignment. I admit it can be tough but I don’t trust them to be fully honest. A team under consideration has their rep step out of the room. Please! They can see when their team was given the benefit of the doubt when they return and they are going to know who to thank. Oh. we (Dook & UNC) get to play in NC again this year. Gee, thanks guys. Also, and I don’t know, how often are the committee members turned over?
2 - there are so many criteria that they can emphasize favoring one team over another. There will always be at least one item that backs up their position. Then don’t talk about the criteria that conflicts with those choices. Every year it’s a moving target on what they looked at most. That’s because they decide what can justify their decisions while bracketing.
3 - I liked the last 10 game record emphasis which they got rid of. The games in February and the conference tourneys are going to be more telling than early season games. Everything counts but the last games are a better indicator of a team’s potential.

Back to the committee’s job:
4 - they don’t have time to rebracket based on Sunday results. The BE had a Sunday final in the early years. There’s no way they can take that result into account unless the two finalist were really even going in and they can give the better pre determined slot to the winner. So, not their fault but it’s something I don’t like.
5 - have a big picture overseer pop in to check out the progress every now and then to take a quick look and see problems. I’m sure the committee can get lost in the weeds. Prime example of screwing up was having BYU playing on Sunday if they advanced. That’s a BIG blunder that can’t happen. And mistakes like that are pointed out immediately by the media getting their first glimpse. So have a big picture guy look at it before they reveal.

Here’s hoping for #7! Go UConn!!
 
Inyatkin said:
"We had Clingan to matchup with Edey. We have AK to match up with Boozer."

That right there is the issue. Acting like stating that fact is enough to conclude we're done for.

Boozer is not prime Hakeem Olajuwon. Alex Karaban is not some scrub. Yes it'd be a challenge, but so would every matchup against a top team.

Being dismissive of UConn players for no good reason is what gets half the board yelling at you
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At the risk of continuing this hypothetical argument…

Karaban has well documented struggles defensively against big/athletic 4s.

Hoping if we play Duke/UM we get more creative with matchups and Karaban doesn’t spend significant time matched up on Boozer/Yaxel. That is not likely to go well.
 
kobebeanbryant said:
At the risk of continuing this hypothetical argument…

Karaban has well documented struggles defensively against big/athletic 4s.

Hoping if we play Duke/UM we get more creative with matchups and Karaban doesn’t spend significant time matched up on Boozer/Yaxel. That is not likely to go well.
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We know he's not coming off the floor, so who do you propose we put on Boozer if it's not Karaban? Yaxel is the 3 so it wouldn't be Karaban anyway
 
navery12 said:
We know he's not coming off the floor, so who do you propose we put on Boozer if it's not Karaban? Yaxel is the 3 so it wouldn't be Karaban anyway
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Karaban - Johnson, Yaxel - Mullins.

Again, nothing to overthink now. Against any of these bigger teams, our spacing and movement would be huge on offense, Tarris holding down the paint would be massive on defense.
 
tzznandrew said:
Edey averaged 24-12 and won every conceivable POY award.

Boozer is very good. He is not senior year Zach Edey.

I'm not convinced UConn beats Duke if they meet up, but I think if UConn actually shows up there's a very good chance. When this team plays to potential—and other than the first St. John's game they do against every good team—they can beat anyone. And they have key players (and a coach) who have won titles. Karaban has two. That experience matters, and only Florida has that.
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Boozer ain't Edey, but he has a higher Evan Maya rating than Edey 2024. Maya's # isn't the gold standard, but it's something. And it's not to say Boozer is better than Edey but the kid is really good. He does a lot more than Edey, just not as dominant on the interior obviously. He's shooting over 40% from three. Boozer may have one, if not, the highest rating of all time on his site since began in 2010.

Boozer - 14.5
Edey - 14.3
Flagg - 13
 
Kimani, Luke, and Danny have watched plenty of tape on both Duke and Michigan and I’m guessing they’ve already started formulating ideas that they’ll solidify if and when we have to deal with either. They cooked up “Edey Island” and they’ll have something tasty ready for these guys too.
 
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If UConn and Duke meet, it would probably be a defense of AK playing Boozer straight up expecting he will get his and try to shut everyone else down to the extent possible. Not that AK can't do an ok job defensively on him, but not sure switching around defenders or double teaming him would be the best option.
 
Meanwhile we are now 4th ranked properly only teams with same wins and one less loss ahead of us.

Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"
 
uconn_jack said:
If UConn and Duke meet, it would probably be a defense of AK playing Boozer straight up expecting he will get his and try to shut everyone else down to the extent possible. Not that AK can't do an ok job defensively on him, but not sure switching around defenders or double teaming him would be the best option.
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I think we'd run a Purdue defense - let Boozer score but no one else.
 
If ISU wins at Arizona tonight, do they steal the last 1 seed? At least for now?
 
Trudy Gay said:
If ISU wins at Arizona tonight, do they steal the last 1 seed? At least for now?
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No way, not after getting smoked at home by TT. Would need some serious winning and us some serious losing, to get in front of us, then Florida. I've seen them on the 3 line.

They're not that good - not a contender.
 
Lafayette said:
Meanwhile we are now 4th ranked properly only teams with same wins and one less loss ahead of us.

Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"
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i know the SEC is the 2nd rated conference but outside of Florida all the other teams seem to be about the equivalent of Villanova at the best. Vandy, Bama, Tenn, UK they all are flawed and far from great.
 
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Lafayette said:
Ironically Florida is next and above teams with more wins and less losses is a head scratcher as all Florida did was beat 3 nominally ranked teams at home and then beat up on bottom dweller SC and Miss St for 3 of those recent wins. They didn't play a top 10 team or even top 15. More "SEC is great nonsense"
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It's not just about wins and losses, otherwise Miami (OH) should be #1.

Florida hasn't lost since January. Their predictive metrics are significantly better than ours. They'll also win the SEC outright. Doesn't have to be "SEC is great nonsense," the SEC is down relative to last year but much better than the Big East.

UConn should have the final #1 seed barring a crazy catastrophe (which would need to include a loss at Marquette) because of their strong wins, WAB, etc. But Florida is playing like they belong in that top trio of teams right now.
 
We’d be screwed if it weren’t for our WAB. I’m guessing a 3 seed with the same record if we didn’t get to play four top 15 teams plus BYU, which would be top 20 but for the Saunders injury. Is this quality of a noncon schedule going to be easily replicable every year going forward or did we get lucky? It’s hard to know how good teams will be more than a year out.
 
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bendm said:
We’d be screwed if it weren’t for our WAB. I’m guessing a 3 seed with the same record if we didn’t get to play four top 15 teams plus BYU, which would be top 20 but for the Saunders injury. Is this quality of a noncon schedule going to be easily replicable every year going forward or did we just get lucky? It’s hard to know how good teams will be more than a year out.
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Seemed like all the top teams were doing it, so it was easy to get games. It'll probably be en vogue for a couple more years at least. Most of the teams had success with it seems (Duke, Arizona, Florida, us, Illinois, Alabama all had insane schedules without MTEs, all likely to be top seeds).
 
Scrutineer said:
What are you talking about?
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Post #172 in this thread. You said we needed to wait and see if Hurley is worth the money he is paid. I later asked you what else he needed to do, which you didn't reply to, so now I'm asking if he has proved he is worth the money he is paid.
 
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bendm said:
We’d be screwed if it weren’t for our WAB. I’m guessing a 3 seed with the same record if we didn’t get to play four top 15 teams plus BYU, which would be top 20 but for the Saunders injury. Is this quality of a noncon schedule going to be easily replicable every year going forward or did we get lucky? It’s hard to know how good teams will be more than a year out.
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Our WAB is really good because we win. Non-con and BE. Schedule might not always be quite as good but winning takes care of a lot.

And the way things are now it should not be that hard to put together a comparable non conf schedule every year.
 
JonnyRI said:
And the way things are now it should not be that hard to put together a comparable non conf schedule every year.
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Right. It's just going to be hard to win at the pace they won in the NC against that sort of schedule.

But...here's hoping the Big East isn't a dumpster fire next year. You expect Willard to keep Villanova on the upswing and for Creighton and Marquette to not suck, and just that—having 5/11 tournament teams rather than 3/11—will help.
 
Just win baby

So many love saying the Big East is weak. So is the SEC and Big10, where everyone has lost a bunch of games. Literally everyone except for Michigan. The ACC is weak, a one horse conference weakened even more with an unbalanced schedule. The B12 has the most contenders and we beat two of them.

Last year, Walter Clayton bailed Florida out in multiple games, he's not suiting up this year. I doubt we'll miss a ton of wide open shots should we play them again this year.

We're in the mix, that's all you can ask for. Preannoited champions are rarely crowned
 
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Rothstein's piece posted by @husky99 "Bracket Talk" is a good listen. In an attempt to be objective-and to learn about the last #1 seed choices-Likely UConn or Florida- He breaks down the Q1 win opportunities left for Fla and for UConn. Even if both teams win out heading into Selection Sunday.

Clears some things up re: seeding. Conclusion for UConn? Keep stackin' Ws until Selection Sunday. Bonus would be a Nova match up in BET prior to BET Championship to pick up another Q1 W- Which would help us when compared to Florida and their Q1 W resume. Our WAB is trending in a strong position.
 
JonnyRI said:
Our WAB is really good because we win. Non-con and BE. Schedule might not always be quite as good but winning takes care of a lot.

And the way things are now it should not be that hard to put together a comparable non conf schedule every year.
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Winning 2 of the last 3 titles makes it a lot easier to schedule top non-con games. Knocking on wood, winning 3/4 would make it even easier moving forward. 😁
 
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