I agree it’s a coin flip regarding which is a better match up. I just don’t think there’s any way we’re in the East unless we go 0-2 in next 2. And even then, probably still the best 2 seed. Never know.
The only path is Florida winning out and winning the SECT, which gives them another 3 Q1A wins and a Q1. Q1A at Kentucky (.72), Q1 n-Kentucky (.57), Q1A n-Tennessee (.73), (Q1A n-Alabama (.71) or Q1A n-Arkansas (.67)).
@auror if Florida wins out, what would UConn's "magic number" be in your opinion to clinch the last 1 seed.
A loss to anyone not named Villanova or St John’s would probably mean a #2 seed. In the same region. As Florida.
Florida is nicely set up, as they are a superior team in a conference full of second rate Q1 teams. I'd expect them to win out. They have the one remaining game against Miss St at home, then @ UK.
Per the graphic from the show, Florida has 1 more Quad 1 win than UConn, but took them 4 more games to do it.
One reason is that you can have a Iowa State, Houston, and/or Michigan State as a 3. Not an easy 16 game. I think the 4 seeds are noticeably weaker than the 3 seeds.
Always nice to get a 1 for notoriety. Affords the presumed easiest path to the F4.
Big question is how the Committee handles the seeding. Last year, the 1 seeds sounded like they were locked in before the conference tournaments. If they do that, I think you see UConn as the likely 1 unless they are upset by Marquette. If they want to hold out the last 1 seed to see how the tournaments go that's their call, but based on last year they looked at the entire season, and although I think Florida is a great team, the did not have any big Non-Conference wins and get beat head up by UConn.
In that scenario, being a 1 is huge cause you really want to avoid having to play Iowa State, Illinois, and Purdue as 3 seeds. Having to win those games and then play the 1 is not easy.
The I would assume they do is this - they would have Florida/Uconn set for the same region, and have their hypothetical play out based on how each performs in their conference tourney. Uconn wins out, they are 1 in the south, Florida 2 in the south, Uconn trips up and they flip. That is my assumption.
Didn't you think UConn was a safely a 1 seed as of last night? Not surprised you are flip flopping.
The South according to this 1-14 would be Gonzaga.
I'm torn on whether Uconn gets to the final and loses, and Florida runs it, whether Uconn keeps it. Florida is going to have 4 wins against tourney teams, which would be to our 0, from here on out. That is material. I didn't play out their SECT run last night.
Pending Arizona/Duke/Michigan games, we are the 4th 1 and relegated to the South as the #4 1 seed.
How the committee might look at it (in a pairwise fashion):
It's fun to speculate about, and it's good for bragging rights and historical counting stats.
I have to imagine that Tech is going to be on the 3-line. Their top end wins beat most others.
Cal gave his team no chance to win. Track meet with 7 players. He absolutely has no game plan
Wish I could love this post @tzznandrew. This is why I think it's huge to get on the 1 line.
Why does it have to be easy?
I understand if they do that, but then who cares about the Non-Conference. There has to be some consistency, and last year the Committee talked about the importance of Non-Conference games and teams like UConn scheduled accordingly. Not UConn's fault the Big East is not as good as the SEC (but the SEC is not that great this year), and they beat Florida. I just don't see how winning the conference tournament should matter in the end based on last year. Don't get me wrong, I see your point and you play who you play, but that would seem inconsistent with everything they said last year.