No one said it has to be easy. You play who you play, but if you polled coaches and asked would you rather play Houston or Nebraska in the 16s, every single one of them would say Nebraska.
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Race for 1 Seed (2/5)
- Thread starter BFieldHusky
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If Houston is on the 3 line, do they still put them in Houston? Then you are screwing the Top 2 seeds potentially.
The sec does not have really good second team. Florida is beating inferior teams so not picking much imo. Arkansas and Alabama severely flawed. It will be interesting to see how they handle a close game against the big boys. I suspect they will choke similar to duke last year. Right now st johns would be second best in sec.
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All 5 of Houston’s losses have been to top NET 20 teams. I could see them getting a 2 but getting shipped out of the South.
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No way
FfldCntyFan
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If you polled coaches in 1999 and asked "would you rather play Stanford or Gonzaga in the regional final" what would the answer have been? I will go to my grave believing we would have beaten Stanford comfortably. Gonzaga ended up giving us fits for the entirety of the game.
Did we catch a break facing Mississippi St instead of UCLA in 1996?
Did we catch a break in 2006 when seven seed Wichita St knocked off two seed Tennessee? When eleven seed George Mason knocked off better seeded Wichita St?
My point is it's useless to worry about what most are worrying about as it will be completely within our control whether we succeed or fail.
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Agreed. That would really be penal to the 2 seed and the 1 for that matter to have 3 seed potentially getting 2 home games. Seems Houston may likely be a 2 and get shipped out to another region.
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They have some ridiculous wins this year - credit that coach. Yesterday's dominating win seemed so improbable. It makes you wonder if they had Toppin if they could have been in that contender box.
So much more data and information out these days to assess/evaluate and understand opponents and match ups. Match ups are everything.
willie99
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Cuse was a two seed, and they made OK St as a one seed play them in Albany
They made us as a 1 play George Mason as a 12 in DC. I was there, it was 18,000 to 2,000
They made MSU play us as a 7 in MSG
Although they probably didn't think Mason or us would get there, and we won the whole damn thing anyway
That I agree with. In the end you have to beat good teams, don't get me wrong. But I still think, especially with UConn likely being in the South, you would prefer to be the 1 seed rather than the 2.
WeAreUCONN
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I say bring on Duke and let’s find out who’s the better team/coach.
FfldCntyFan
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Yes, there is far more data available, but I doubt it would have changed any of the seeds in prior tournaments that I referenced if the data had been then.
I still stand fully behind this:
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They shouldn’t but they will. It’ll be a make up for last year when they had to play 4 seed Purdue in Indianapolis
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They didn't make an 11 seed play us in DC, the 11 seed earned it. The 2 seed was Tennessee, the 3 seed was UNC, and the 4/5 was Washington/Illinois. Other than UNC, UConn would have the clear home court against any of them.
Nobody could have—or should have—fussed about an 11-seed potentially having home games in the Regional Semis or Finals. GM had to beat a 6-MSU and then a 3-UNC before they got the 7-Wichita. Just a wild turn of events. UConn barely survived against Washington, about as far away as possible.
And UConn still should have won.
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The only one there that really matters is Cuse; that’s a tough draw for OKST.
We played GMU in DC not because of them, but because of who their 3 seed was (I can’t remember; UNC?). Only the top four seeds are placed into regionals with geographic location as a factor. Seeds 5-16 are placed into pods by geography. This is how you get the correlation between GMU eventually getting into the East in 06 (because of UNC(?)) and us getting the East in 14 (because of Nova). It’s also why we got sent to relatively local Buffalo in 2022. Going down the bracket, the higher you are on your seed line, the more likely you are to be given a geographically advantageous pod. In 2022, we were 17 on the s-curve, the top 5 seed. Therefore, we had all four 4 seed pods available and went to the one with the best geography for us.
So, because those top four seeds are placed into regionals by geography, and they’re likely to also have advantageous pods (at least the 1-3 seeds), it tracks that the lower seeded teams going into those pods would also theoretically belong geographically to the eventual regional.
And of course, for both the top seeds being assigned a regional and the rest of the field being assigned a pod, the committee will make moves that ignore geography as conferences and competitive balance requires.
It’s all relatively complicated, but us bracket nerds love this ish. I think the average but passionate bracketologist (including me lol) could do this far better than the committee.
Edit: what does this mean for Houston? If they’re 9 on the s-curve (the top 3 seed), them being placed in the South remains a distinct possibility, unless they get shuffled after the top seeds are assigned to account for conferences or competition.
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This is revisionist. Uconn and purdue were viewed as the best two teams. They were. And Uconn was a lot better.
You want more data points? In 2023, the world had written uconn off. Metrics never dropped uconn below 6. The metrics knew. The people were morons.
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Nothing here not being discussed already.
There are limitations on the significance of head-to-head results in the seeding process, because upsets are a part of college basketball's fabric, and leaning too hard into head-to-head could lead to seeding discrepancies. But in a scenario where two teams fighting for a spot on a certain seed line played on a neutral court, it could be something the committee considers.
www.cbssports.com
Does UConn hold a trump card?
With Selection Sunday still two weeks away, the debate is all hypothetical for now. But if the Huskies and Gators are next to each other in the seeding hierarchy on Selection Sunday, UConn holds a potential trump card. The Huskies topped Florida on Dec. 9 inside Madison Square Garden. That was before the Gators hit their stride, but it could be a data point the selection committee considers in a tight race.There are limitations on the significance of head-to-head results in the seeding process, because upsets are a part of college basketball's fabric, and leaning too hard into head-to-head could lead to seeding discrepancies. But in a scenario where two teams fighting for a spot on a certain seed line played on a neutral court, it could be something the committee considers.
Bracketology: Florida emerges as UConn's top challenger for fourth No. 1 seed as chase pack thins out
As the calendar flips to March, the race for the final No. 1 seed is thinning out
www.cbssports.com
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FIFY 😊
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Yeah we should definitely keep in mind that the Florida winning out scenario is a minority outcome, KenPom puts it like 30% or so (and that's only giving 20% chance to Kentucky, which you seem to think is higher, and I probably agree).
I don’t understand how people are saying Fla is the fourth number one seed —we beat them pretty handedly number one - and number two. We’ve been in the top five or 6 for the entire year. Florida is just cracking into the top 7-8 now. to me. It’s not even close.
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I can see Kentucky playing well at home in a rivalry game. And Florida hasn't been in a close game in what seems a while.
Isn’t balancing the conf a big issue too? B12 and b10 need to be separated from top 16 conf team
As with us, TTU should have beaten Florida last year. I absolutely think they were a dark horse contender this year with Toppin.
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Just for reference, Lunardi has the following this morning:
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
2: Florida, Iowa St, Houston, Purdue
3: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan St.
4: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Alabama, Virginia
CBS this morning had them broken up as:
East: Duke, Purdue, Iowa St, Texas Tech
Midwest: Michigan, Houston, Nebraska, Virginia
West: Arizona, Illinois, Alabama, Gonzaga
South: UConn, Florida, Michigan St, Kansas
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
2: Florida, Iowa St, Houston, Purdue
3: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan St.
4: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Alabama, Virginia
CBS this morning had them broken up as:
East: Duke, Purdue, Iowa St, Texas Tech
Midwest: Michigan, Houston, Nebraska, Virginia
West: Arizona, Illinois, Alabama, Gonzaga
South: UConn, Florida, Michigan St, Kansas